Spelling suggestions: "subject:"bayesian model"" "subject:"bayesian godel""
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Evaluation économique des aires marines protégées : apports méthodologiques et applications aux îles Kuriat (Tunisie) / Economic valuation of marine protected areas : methodological perspectives and empirical applications to Kuriat Islands (Tunisia)Mbarek, Marouene 16 December 2016 (has links)
La protection des ressources naturelles marines est un enjeu fort pour les décideurs publics. Le développement récent des aires marines protégées (AMP) contribue à ces enjeux de préservation. Les AMP ont pour objectifs de conserver les écosystèmes marins et côtiers tout en favorisant les activités humaines. La complexité de ces objectifs les rend difficiles à atteindre. L’objectif de cette thèse est de mener une analyse ex ante d’un projet d’une AMP aux îles Kuriat (Tunisie). Cette analyse représente une aide aux décideurs pour une meilleure gouvernance en intégrant les acteurs impliqués (pêcheur, visiteur, plaisancier) dans le processus de gestion. Pour ce faire, nous appliquons la méthode d’évaluation contingente (MEC) à des échantillons des pêcheurs et des visiteurs aux îles Kuriat. Nous nous intéressons au traitement des biais de sélection et d’échantillonnage et à l’incertitude sur la spécification des modèles économétriques lors de la mise en œuvre de la MEC. Nous faisons appel au modèle HeckitBMA,qui est une combinaison du modèle de Heckman (1979) et de l’inférence bayésienne, pour calculer le consentement à recevoir des pêcheurs. Nous utilisons aussi le modèle Zero inflated ordered probit (ZIOP), qui est une combinaison d’un probit binaire avec un probit ordonné, pour calculer le consentement à payer des visiteurs après avoir corrigé l’échantillon par imputation multiple. Nos résultats montrent que les groupes d’acteurs se distinguent par leur activité et leur situation économique ce qui les amène à avoir des perceptions différentes. Cela permet aux décideurs d’élaborer une politique de compensation permettant d’indemniser les acteurs ayant subi un préjudice. / The protection of marine natural resources is a major challenge for policy makers. The recent development of marine protected areas (MPAs) contributes to the preservation issues. MPAs are aimed to preserve the marine and coastal ecosystems while promoting human activities. The complexity of these objectives makes them difficult to reach. The purpose of this work is to conduct an ex-ante analysis of a proposed MPA to Kuriat Islands (Tunisia). This analysis is an aid to decision makers for better governance by integrating the actors involved (fisherman, visitor, boater) in the management process. To do this, we use the contingent valuation method (CVM) to samples of fishermen and visitors to the islands Kuriat. We are interested in the treatment of selection and sampling bias and uncertainty about specifying econometric models during the implementation of the CVM. We use the model HeckitBMA, which is a combination of the Heckman model (1979) and Bayesian inference, to calculate the willingness to accept of fishermen. We also use the model Zero inflated ordered probit (ZIOP), which is a combination of a binary probit with an ordered probit, to calculate the willingness to pay of visitors after correcting the sample by multiple imputation. Our results show that groups of actors are distinguished by their activity and economic conditions that cause them to have different perceptions. This allows policy makers to develop a policy of compensation to compensate the players who have been harmed.
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Comparative Analysis of Behavioral Models for Adaptive Learning in Changing EnvironmentsMarković, Dimitrije, Kiebel, Stefan J. 16 January 2017 (has links) (PDF)
Probabilistic models of decision making under various forms of uncertainty have been applied in recent years to numerous behavioral and model-based fMRI studies. These studies were highly successful in enabling a better understanding of behavior and delineating the functional properties of brain areas involved in decision making under uncertainty. However, as different studies considered different models of decision making under uncertainty, it is unclear which of these computational models provides the best account of the observed behavioral and neuroimaging data. This is an important issue, as not performing model comparison may tempt researchers to over-interpret results based on a single model. Here we describe how in practice one can compare different behavioral models and test the accuracy of model comparison and parameter estimation of Bayesian and maximum-likelihood based methods. We focus our analysis on two well-established hierarchical probabilistic models that aim at capturing the evolution of beliefs in changing environments: Hierarchical Gaussian Filters and Change Point Models. To our knowledge, these two, well-established models have never been compared on the same data. We demonstrate, using simulated behavioral experiments, that one can accurately disambiguate between these two models, and accurately infer free model parameters and hidden belief trajectories (e.g., posterior expectations, posterior uncertainties, and prediction errors) even when using noisy and highly correlated behavioral measurements. Importantly, we found several advantages of Bayesian inference and Bayesian model comparison compared to often-used Maximum-Likelihood schemes combined with the Bayesian Information Criterion. These results stress the relevance of Bayesian data analysis for model-based neuroimaging studies that investigate human decision making under uncertainty.
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Comparative Analysis of Behavioral Models for Adaptive Learning in Changing EnvironmentsMarković, Dimitrije, Kiebel, Stefan J. 16 January 2017 (has links)
Probabilistic models of decision making under various forms of uncertainty have been applied in recent years to numerous behavioral and model-based fMRI studies. These studies were highly successful in enabling a better understanding of behavior and delineating the functional properties of brain areas involved in decision making under uncertainty. However, as different studies considered different models of decision making under uncertainty, it is unclear which of these computational models provides the best account of the observed behavioral and neuroimaging data. This is an important issue, as not performing model comparison may tempt researchers to over-interpret results based on a single model. Here we describe how in practice one can compare different behavioral models and test the accuracy of model comparison and parameter estimation of Bayesian and maximum-likelihood based methods. We focus our analysis on two well-established hierarchical probabilistic models that aim at capturing the evolution of beliefs in changing environments: Hierarchical Gaussian Filters and Change Point Models. To our knowledge, these two, well-established models have never been compared on the same data. We demonstrate, using simulated behavioral experiments, that one can accurately disambiguate between these two models, and accurately infer free model parameters and hidden belief trajectories (e.g., posterior expectations, posterior uncertainties, and prediction errors) even when using noisy and highly correlated behavioral measurements. Importantly, we found several advantages of Bayesian inference and Bayesian model comparison compared to often-used Maximum-Likelihood schemes combined with the Bayesian Information Criterion. These results stress the relevance of Bayesian data analysis for model-based neuroimaging studies that investigate human decision making under uncertainty.
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Zkoumání konektivity mozkových sítí pomocí hemodynamického modelování / Exploring Brain Network Connectivity through Hemodynamic ModelingHavlíček, Martin January 2012 (has links)
Zobrazení funkční magnetickou rezonancí (fMRI) využívající "blood-oxygen-level-dependent" efekt jako indikátor lokální aktivity je velmi užitečnou technikou k identifikaci oblastí mozku, které jsou aktivní během percepce, kognice, akce, ale také během klidového stavu. V poslední době také roste zájem o studium konektivity mezi těmito oblastmi, zejména v klidovém stavu. Tato práce předkládá nový a originální přístup k problému nepřímého vztahu mezi měřenou hemodynamickou odezvou a její příčinou, tj. neuronálním signálem. Zmíněný nepřímý vztah komplikuje odhad efektivní konektivity (kauzálního ovlivnění) mezi různými oblastmi mozku z dat fMRI. Novost prezentovaného přístupu spočívá v použití (zobecněné nelineární) techniky slepé dekonvoluce, což dovoluje odhad endogenních neuronálních signálů (tj. vstupů systému) z naměřených hemodynamických odezev (tj. výstupů systému). To znamená, že metoda umožňuje "data-driven" hodnocení efektivní konektivity na neuronální úrovni i v případě, že jsou měřeny pouze zašumělé hemodynamické odezvy. Řešení tohoto obtížného dekonvolučního (inverzního) problému je dosaženo za použití techniky nelineárního rekurzivního Bayesovského odhadu, který poskytuje společný odhad neznámých stavů a parametrů modelu. Práce je rozdělena do tří hlavních částí. První část navrhuje metodu k řešení výše uvedeného problému. Metoda využívá odmocninové formy nelineárního kubaturního Kalmanova filtru a kubaturního Rauch-Tung-Striebelova vyhlazovače, ovšem rozšířených pro účely řešení tzv. problému společného odhadu, který je definován jako simultánní odhad stavů a parametrů sekvenčním přístupem. Metoda je navržena především pro spojitě-diskrétní systémy a dosahuje přesného a stabilního řešení diskretizace modelu kombinací nelineárního (kubaturního) filtru s metodou lokální linearizace. Tato inverzní metoda je navíc doplněna adaptivním odhadem statistiky šumu měření a šumů procesu (tj. šumů neznámých stavů a parametrů). První část práce je zaměřena na inverzi modelu pouze jednoho časového průběhu; tj. na odhad neuronální aktivity z fMRI signálu. Druhá část generalizuje navrhovaný přístup a aplikuje jej na více časových průběhů za účelem umožnění odhadu parametrů propojení neuronálního modelu interakce; tj. odhadu efektivní konektivity. Tato metoda představuje inovační stochastické pojetí dynamického kauzálního modelování, což ji činí odlišnou od dříve představených přístupů. Druhá část se rovněž zabývá metodami Bayesovského výběru modelu a navrhuje techniku pro detekci irelevantních parametrů propojení za účelem dosažení zlepšeného odhadu parametrů. Konečně třetí část se věnuje ověření navrhovaného přístupu s využitím jak simulovaných tak empirických fMRI dat, a je významných důkazem o velmi uspokojivých výsledcích navrhovaného přístupu.
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Fusion pour la séparation de sources audio / Fusion for audio source separationJaureguiberry, Xabier 16 June 2015 (has links)
La séparation aveugle de sources audio dans le cas sous-déterminé est un problème mathématique complexe dont il est aujourd'hui possible d'obtenir une solution satisfaisante, à condition de sélectionner la méthode la plus adaptée au problème posé et de savoir paramétrer celle-ci soigneusement. Afin d'automatiser cette étape de sélection déterminante, nous proposons dans cette thèse de recourir au principe de fusion. L'idée est simple : il s'agit, pour un problème donné, de sélectionner plusieurs méthodes de résolution plutôt qu'une seule et de les combiner afin d'en améliorer la solution. Pour cela, nous introduisons un cadre général de fusion qui consiste à formuler l'estimée d'une source comme la combinaison de plusieurs estimées de cette même source données par différents algorithmes de séparation, chaque estimée étant pondérée par un coefficient de fusion. Ces coefficients peuvent notamment être appris sur un ensemble d'apprentissage représentatif du problème posé par minimisation d'une fonction de coût liée à l'objectif de séparation. Pour aller plus loin, nous proposons également deux approches permettant d'adapter les coefficients de fusion au signal à séparer. La première formule la fusion dans un cadre bayésien, à la manière du moyennage bayésien de modèles. La deuxième exploite les réseaux de neurones profonds afin de déterminer des coefficients de fusion variant en temps. Toutes ces approches ont été évaluées sur deux corpus distincts : l'un dédié au rehaussement de la parole, l'autre dédié à l'extraction de voix chantée. Quelle que soit l'approche considérée, nos résultats montrent l'intérêt systématique de la fusion par rapport à la simple sélection, la fusion adaptative par réseau de neurones se révélant être la plus performante. / Underdetermined blind source separation is a complex mathematical problem that can be satisfyingly resolved for some practical applications, providing that the right separation method has been selected and carefully tuned. In order to automate this selection process, we propose in this thesis to resort to the principle of fusion which has been widely used in the related field of classification yet is still marginally exploited in source separation. Fusion consists in combining several methods to solve a given problem instead of selecting a unique one. To do so, we introduce a general fusion framework in which a source estimate is expressed as a linear combination of estimates of this same source given by different separation algorithms, each source estimate being weighted by a fusion coefficient. For a given task, fusion coefficients can then be learned on a representative training dataset by minimizing a cost function related to the separation objective. To go further, we also propose two ways to adapt the fusion coefficients to the mixture to be separated. The first one expresses the fusion of several non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) models in a Bayesian fashion similar to Bayesian model averaging. The second one aims at learning time-varying fusion coefficients thanks to deep neural networks. All proposed methods have been evaluated on two distinct corpora. The first one is dedicated to speech enhancement while the other deals with singing voice extraction. Experimental results show that fusion always outperform simple selection in all considered cases, best results being obtained by adaptive time-varying fusion with neural networks.
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EVOKED PHASE COHERENCE AS A BIOMARKER FOR ADAPTIVE NEUROMODULATION IN RAT MODEL OF PARKINSON'S DISEASEZackrisson, Love January 2023 (has links)
Neuromodulation, such as spinal cord stimulation (SCS) and deep brain stimulation (DBS), has been shown to modulate pathophysiological brain activity and provide symptomatic therapy for several neurological disorders, including Parkinson’s Disease. The effectiveness of this therapy could likely be further improved by neuromodulation that is adaptive, delivering stimulation more selectively, by monitoring a biomarker in recorded brain signals, which indicates the presence of a pathological state. In the treatment of Parkinson’s Disease, the most commonly proposed solutions for adaptive neuromodulation are relying on excessive beta-band oscillatory activity as a biomarker, which is however often highly variable between patients during movement and in conjunction with neuromodulatory treatment, such as levodopa. These limitations hinder broader use of this biomarker and prompts further research for alternative solutions. In this work, we instead present the use of a novel feature of evoked electrophysiological activity, which utilizes the inter-trial phase coherence between stimulation pulses, to classify parkinsonian brain states in 6-OHDA lesioned rats. We developed a method, which relates to the rate of decay in inter-tral phase coherence, evoked by single SCS or DBS pulses, that is able to statistically separate experimental conditions recorded from a dopaminergic depleted hemisphere from conditions a non-depleted hemisphere, while also being able to separate conditions with levodopa treatment from conditions without treatment. For animals undergoing SCS we can classify phase decay measurements from pharmacologically treated or untreated parkinsonian states, using a Bayesian model, with a high accuracy and strong classifier performance for a single channel (AUC 0.85 – 0.99) in the motor cortex and striatum. In ongoing experiments, similar implementation of adaptive DBS is being evaluated. Our results support the implementation of our feature in a protocol aimed at performing closed-loop neuromodulation in the 6-OHDA rat model of Parkinon’s Disease, that can serve as the basis for further studies. / Neuromodulering, såsom ryggmärgsstimulering (SCS) och djup hjärnstimulering (DBS), har visat sig kunna modulera patofysiologisk hjärnaktivitet och ge symtomatisk behandling av flera neurologiska sjukdomar, inklusive Parkinsons sjukdom. Effekten av denna behandling skulle sannolikt kunna förbättras ytterligare genom neuromodulering som är adaptiv och ger stimulering mer selektivt, genom övervakning av en biomarkör i registrerade hjärnsignaler, som indikerar förekomsten av ett patologiskt tillstånd. Vid behandling av Parkinsons sjukdom förlitar sig de vanligaste lösningarna för adaptiv neuromodulering på överdriven beta-bands oscillatorisk aktivitet som en biomarkör som dock ofta är mycket varierande mellan patienter, under rörelse och i samband med behandling så som levodopa. Dessa begränsningar hindrar en bredare användning av denna biomarkör och ytterligare forskning krävs för att hitta alternativa lösningar. I detta arbete presenterar vi istället en ny egenskap hos väckt elektrofysiologisk aktivitet, som utnyttjar faskoherens mellan stimuleringspulser för att klassificera parkinsonistiska hjärntillstånd hos 6-OHDA-lesionerade råttor. Vi har utvecklat en metod som relaterar till avklingningshastigheten i faskoherens, framkallad av enstaka SCS- eller DBS-pulser, som kan statistiskt särskilja de experimentella tillstånden i en dopaminergiskt utarmad hemisfär från liknande tillstånd, fast i en icke utarmad hemisfär. Den kan även statistiskt särskilja tillstånd med levodopabehandling från tillstånd utan behandling. För djur som genomgår SCS kan vi klassificera fasförfallsmätningar från farmakologiskt behandlade eller obehandlade parkinsontillstånd, med hjälp av en Bayesiansk modell, med hög noggrannhet och stark klassificeringsprestanda för en enda kanal (AUC 0,85 - 0,99) i motorcortex och striatum. I pågående experiment utvärderas en liknande implementering av adaptiv DBS. Våra resultat stöder implementeringen av vår funktion i ett protokoll som syftar till att utföra sluten neuromodulering i 6-OHDA-råttmodellen för Parkinons sjukdom, som kan tjäna som grund för ytterligare studier.
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A Bayesian Decision Theoretical Approach to Supervised Learning, Selective Sampling, and Empirical Function OptimizationCarroll, James Lamond 10 March 2010 (has links) (PDF)
Many have used the principles of statistics and Bayesian decision theory to model specific learning problems. It is less common to see models of the processes of learning in general. One exception is the model of the supervised learning process known as the "Extended Bayesian Formalism" or EBF. This model is descriptive, in that it can describe and compare learning algorithms. Thus the EBF is capable of modeling both effective and ineffective learning algorithms. We extend the EBF to model un-supervised learning, semi-supervised learning, supervised learning, and empirical function optimization. We also generalize the utility model of the EBF to deal with non-deterministic outcomes, and with utility functions other than 0-1 loss. Finally, we modify the EBF to create a "prescriptive" learning model, meaning that, instead of describing existing algorithms, our model defines how learning should optimally take place. We call the resulting model the Unified Bayesian Decision Theoretical Model, or the UBDTM. WE show that this model can serve as a cohesive theory and framework in which a broad range of questions can be analyzed and studied. Such a broadly applicable unified theoretical framework is one of the major missing ingredients of machine learning theory. Using the UBDTM, we concentrate on supervised learning and empirical function optimization. We then use the UBDTM to reanalyze many important theoretical issues in Machine Learning, including No-Free-Lunch, utility implications, and active learning. We also point forward to future directions for using the UBDTM to model learnability, sample complexity, and ensembles. We also provide practical applications of the UBDTM by using the model to train a Bayesian variation to the CMAC supervised learner in closed form, to perform a practical empirical function optimization task, and as part of the guiding principles behind an ongoing project to create an electronic and print corpus of tagged ancient Syriac texts using active learning.
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