Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2017-08-01T15:45:04Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Larisse Marks_.pdf: 481719 bytes, checksum: 366e532986d2f832cc60a6d0418acc24 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-01T15:45:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Larisse Marks_.pdf: 481719 bytes, checksum: 366e532986d2f832cc60a6d0418acc24 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-06-05 / Nenhuma / Diante da importância do investimento para o crescimento da Economia e de sua frequente presença na vida dos agentes econômicos, diversas concepções teóricas dedicam-se ao entendimento da tomada de decisão. Contudo, não há uma conformidade sobre as explicações dos modelos de investimento e do real processo decisório, assim como não há no tocante ao postulado de racionalidade empregado. O objetivo deste estudo é identificar qual ou quais percepções de racionalidade respaldam a teoria de investimento de Fisher, de Keynes, das teorias derivadas do modelo keynesiano (Pós-keynesiana, Neokeynesiana e Nova Economia Keynesiana), de Kalecki e nas Finanças Comportamentais. Para tanto, há uma discussão crítica sobre a compreensão de investimento ao longo da história econômica, apreciando exclusivamente os conteúdos pertinentes a racionalidade. Um dos principais resultados deste estudo foi a constatação de que as teorias que rejeitam a concepção de um ser completamente racional não adotam a ideia um indivíduo inteiramente irracional; a sua discordância é relativa ao grau de racionalidade empregado nos modelos. / Given the importance of investment for growth of the Economy and it’s continuing presence in the lives of economic agents, several theoretical conceptions are dedicated to the understanding of decision-making. However, there is no agreement on the explanations of the investment models and the real decision-making process, just as there is no agreement in the postulate of rationality too. The purpose of this study is to identify which perceptions of rationality support the investment theories of Fisher, Keynes, theories derived from Keynes (Post-Keynesian, Neo Keynesian and New Keynesian), Kalecki and Behavioral Finance, through a dialectical discussion about the understanding of investment throughout economic history, by assessing exclusively the contents pertinent to rationality. One of the main results of this study is that theories that reject the conception of a completely rational being do not adopt the idea of a totally irrational individual; their disagreement is relative to the degree of rationality employed in the models.

Neste trabalho é proposto um novo modelo para análise empírica de sobre-reação e sub-reação no mercado de ações. O modelo proposto é baseado em uma técnica de classificação de padrão fuzzy, que permite estabelecer uma relação com as heurísticas de representatividade e ancoramento, oriundas da teoria de finanças comportamentais. O modelo é usado para classificar ações com base nos índices financeiros de companhias abertas. Resultados numéricos ilustram o procedimento de análise para ações do setor de petróleo/petroquímica e do setor têxtil do mercado brasileiro, com indicadores financeiros relativos ao período de 1994 a 2005. / In this work a new model for empirical analysis of stock market overreaction and underreaction is proposed. Such model is based on a fuzzy pattern classification technique, which is strongly connected to the representativeness and anchoring heuristics from behavioral finance. The proposed model is used for stock classification by exploring financial ratios of public companies. Numerical results illustrate the analysis procedure in the cases of the petroleum/petrochemical and textile stocks from the Brazilian market, with financial ratios ranging from 1994 to 2005.

Ce travail de recherche s’évertue à mieux comprendre les effets d’un ou plusieurs chocs exogènes dans un marché financier. Plus précisément, nous tentons d’étudier l’impact d’un choc informationnel sur les comportements des prix des actifs, les bulles spéculatives, la volatilité des prix, le volume de transactions et les prévisions des analystes. Ainsi, pour ce faire,nous décomposons la problématique en trois articles. Le premier article présente une analyse empirique qui teste les effets d’un choc exogène attendu - l’annonce du Brexit - sur la performance à court terme et à long terme des entreprises britanniques et européennes cotées en bourse. Nos résultats montrent que l’annonce du Brexit impacte négativement la performance à long terme des firmes britanniques et des firmes européennes puisque celles-ci font la plupart de leurs activités commerciales avec la zone britannique. Dans le deuxième essai,nous testons les effets d’un choc exogène attendu et inattendu de la valeur fondamentale dans un marché expérimental. Nos résultats montrent que les chocs ont un effet négatif sur la déviation des prix par rapport à la valeur fondamentale et un effet positif sur l’hétérogénéité des croyances quel que soit le type de choc, attendu ou inattendu, et quelle que soit sa direction,à la hausse ou à la baisse. Le troisième article se concentre sur les effets de multiples chocs inattendus dans un marché expérimental. Nos principaux résultats sont les suivants : les multiples chocs à la baisse réduisent le volume de transactions et la volatilité des prix tandis que les multiples chocs à la hausse n’ont pas d’effet sur le volume de transactions et augmentent la volatilité des prix. Enfin, nous observons, seulement dans les marchés sans chocs, un lien positif entre le volume de transactions et l’hétérogénéité des croyances. / This thesis investigates the effects of one or multiples exogeneous shocks in stock market. More precisely, we are interested in the impact of a news shock on the behaviour of stock prices,bubbles, price volatility, transactions volume and analyst’s forecasts. To tackle this question,we depicted the subject in three axes. The first essay presents an empirical analysis that tests the effects of an expected shock - the Brexit vote announcement - on the long-run market performance of British listed firms and European listed firms. Our results show that the Brexit announcement affected negatively the long-run market performance over a 12 months’ horizon of UK firms in any of their business activities and European non-British firms having most oftheir business activities within the British area. In the second paper, we investigate experimentally the effects of expected and unexpected shock on an asset’s fundamental value.Our findings show that shocks have a negative effect on the price deviation from the fundamental value and a positive effect on the differences of opinion regardless of the type ofshocks - expected or unexpected - and regardless of the direction - upward or downward. The third paper focuses on the effects of unexpected multiple shocks in an experimental market.Our main findings are as follows: Multiple downward shocks reduce transactions volume andprice volatility, while multiple upward shocks have no effect on trading volume and increase price volatility. Finally, we observe, only in markets without shocks, a positive link between the volume of transactions and the differences of opinion.

Thesis deals with Prospect Theory and with its findings when making decisions under risk which is called four-fold pattern. In theoretical part is shortly mentioned the field of Behavioral finance and further described original Prospect Theory and also its modified version called Cumulative Prospect Theory. The main goal of the practical part is to confirm on the basis of questionnaire between different kinds of college graduates the four-fold pattern, identify between 3 segments differences and make the final conclusion whether the type of college education has an impact on four-fold pattern.

Essa tese foi desenvolvida com vistas a responder ao seguinte problema de pesquisa:as heurísticas e os vieses influenciam o processo decisório dos indivíduos quando confrontados com demonstrações financeiras e contábeis publicadas pelas empresas? Baseando-se na Prospect Theory de Kahneman e Tversky, buscou-se verificar como as heurísticas da ancoragem, representatividade e disponibilidade geravam vieses e influenciavam o modo como os usuários tomam suas decisões utilizando informações de cunho contábil e financeiro. Para tanto, foram submetidos questionários contendo situações de decisão junto aos estudantes de graduação da Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade da Universidade de São Paulo e aos analistas profissionais de uma grande instituição financeira brasileira. 369 estudantes e 55 analistas responderam o questionário proposto. Para evitar com que os resultados pudessem não ser confiáveis, nenhum dos respondentes sabiam que o questionário buscava identificar vieses no processo de tomada de decisão. Para os colaboradores, foi exposto que a pesquisa versava sobre o processo de tomada de decisão com base na divulgação de informações contábeis e financeiras, sem fazer qualquer menção ao estudo das finanças comportamentais ou vieses. Os resultados obtidos divergiram quando foram comparados os dois públicos estudados nessa tese: analistas de mercado de capitais e estudantes de uma das melhores faculdades de negócio do Brasil. Os resultados sugeriram que o uso da heurística da ancoragem não se mostrou significativa nem para os analistas e nem para os estudantes. Entretanto, o uso da heurística da disponibilidade se mostrou estatisticamente significativa, assim como a presença da noção de correlação ilusória e o efeito isolamento. Por sua vez, o efeito reflexão e a não observação da regressão à média foram percebidos somente na amostra composta pelos analistas profissionais da instituição financeira. Finalmente, o uso da heurística da representatividade só teve efeito estatístico na presença dos alunos. / This thesis has been developed in order to answer the following research problem: the heuristics and biases influence the decision-making process of individuals when faced with financial and accounting statements published by the companies? Based on the Prospect Theory of Kahneman and Tversky, this research sought to determine how the heuristics of anchoring and adjustment, representativeness and availability generated biases and influenced how users make decisions using accounting and financial nature information. To this end, questionnaires containing decision situations were submitted to undergraduate students of the School of Economics, Business and Accounting of the University of São Paulo and the professional analysts of a large Brazilian financial institution. 369 students and 55 analysts answered the proposed questionnaire. To avoid that the results could not be trusted, none of the respondents knew that the questionnaire sought to identify biases in the decision-making process. It was explained that the survey questionnaire was about the decision-making process based on the disclosure of accounting and financial information, without making any mention of the study of behavioral biases. The results diverged when both public studied were compared in this thesis: capital market analysts and students of one of the best business schools in Brazil. The results suggested that the use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic was not significant neither for the analysts and neither for the students. However, the use of the availability heuristic was statistically significant, as the presence of the concept of illusory correlation and the isolation effect. In turn, the reflection effect and no observation of regression to the mean were perceived only in the sample of the professional analysts of the financial institution. Finally, the use of the representativeness heuristic only had statistical effect in the student\'s sample.

Denna uppsats undersöker om svenska investerares sentiment påverkas av resultatet i mästerskapsmatcher spelade av herrlandslagen i ishockey och fotboll. Genom att utföra en eventstudie under perioden 1988 till 2018 där den abnorma avkastningen på den svenska börsen observeras efter att en match spelats går det att se hur Sveriges aktiemarknad reagerar på olika resultat. Tidigare forskning på internationell nivå finner samband mellan den inhemska aktiemarknadens utveckling och landslags sportsliga framgång. Studiens utgångspunkt är att marknaden är effektiv på lång sikt men kan uppvisa irrationellt beteende som förklaras av investerares psykologiska fallgropar. Resultaten i uppsatsen går emot tidigare forskning på området, förluster följs av positiv avkastning och vinster av negativ avkastning. Inga resultat i studien är signifikanta vilket leder till att marknadens anses vara rationell och nyttomaximerande i enlighet med effektiva marknadshypotesen. Avsaknaden av signifikanta resultat kan bero på ett flertal olika saker, som exempelvis lågt urval av studerade matcher, låg grad av patriotiska värderingar i Sverige, liten emotionell anknytning till sportevent eller en stor andel utländska investerare.

Psychological biases in the form of sentiment can affect various economic decisions including accounting choices. Broadly defined, the term sentiment refers to unjustified beliefs about the future cash flow prospects of the firm (Baker and Wurgler 2006). Asymmetric timely loss recognition (ATLR) is particularly prone to managerial sentiment because the decision to recognize economic gains and losses is based, in part, on managers’ beliefs about the likelihood of future economic events affecting the firms. In this study, I examine the effect of psychological biases about future performance on current accounting choices via the effect of market-level managerial sentiment on ATLR. I find that ATLR decreases with managerial sentiment and that periods of high managerial sentiment are associated with lower concurrent write-offs but higher subsequent write-offs. This study enhances the implications of sentiment on firms’ accounting choices by identifying a time-varying macroeconomic determinant of ATLR that is based on psychological biases about future performance.

iiABSTRACTBehavioral finance has been a popular research subject for a while and therefore the understanding of human behavior when it comes to private financial investments has increased. When comparing human behavior to the financial theories one can conclude thatthe assumption of perfect and efficient markets with fully informed and rational investors is not realistic. This study has therefore looked at the investor rationality when choosing which index fund to invest in. Index funds are to a large degree used asa savings tool for either pensions or other specific purposes. It was therefore interesting to look at the behavior of Swedish investors buyingthe Swedishindex funds available in Sweden with a quantitative analysis of the relationship between flow and other features of index funds. The dependent variable reflecting rationality was the fund flow and the independent variables were return, tracking error, size, fee and risk. No previous studies have been made on the investor rationality regarding index funds in the Swedish market, although similar studies havebeen done on the American S&P 500 investors. 17 index funds were included in this study, which is the whole population of index funds following Swedish indices available in Sweden at the point of time when this study was conducted. From this population funds that had been available for more than 3 years was chosen since we wanted to look at the behavior based on a longer time span than one year. In the end, 17index funds with 51observations was included in the study.Five hypotheses were created and tested of whichtwowereaccepted. From the regression model we found that return and standard deviation (SD) weresignificant andhadpositiverelationshipswith the fund flow. This implies that Swedish investors are rational to some degree but not fully rational since they are not taking any of the other variables into account which a rational investor ought to consider. It is therefore useful information for both investors and fund companies to see which factors weight in the most and how rational the behavior is. Conclusions from this study is that Swedish investors are subject to the index fund rationality paradox to some degree and the rational choice theory applies to some extent. One has to fully consider the outcomes of an action and base the decisionon utility maximization that the outcome will give one. To act fully rational is hard even for the most aware investor and even harder for an ordinary investor with gaps in knowledge and limited resources to information.

Previous literature has produced mixed findings of a tendency of investors, coined the “ostrich effect” to display a preference for avoiding potentially painful information regarding their portfolios. This paper investigates the presence of the ostrich effect during the 2008/2009 financial crisis via a survey of investors who held portfolios before and through that period. The results demonstrate that most investors do not report any ostrich effect. However, approximately one fourth of investors demonstrated a preference for delaying learning about potentially negative portfolio information, but ultimately chose to learn the information. These findings provide a more nuanced understanding of investors’ behaviors during financial crises and supports a more specific definition of the ostrich effect. Specifically, that some investors prefer a delay in painful information acquisition but do no indefinitely “keep their heads in the sand.”

Nous étudions le comportement des investisseurs individuels sur les marchés financiers en combinant les réponses au questionnaire MiFID et les données bancaires de plus de 98,000 clients d’une grande banque Européenne. Tout d’abord, nous étudions la participation sur les marchés actions. Nous montrons que la tolérance au risque et les attitudes face aux pertes auto-évaluées des clients sont de forts prédicteurs de l’investissement en actions tout en contrôlant les déterminants classiques. Puis, dans le cadre de la comptabilité mentale, nous créons une typologie d’objectifs mentaux et montrons que les décisions financières des clients sont cohérentes avec leurs objectifs mentaux. Enfin, nous analysons le comportement des investisseurs détenant directement au moins une action étrangère. Nous montrons qu’ils détiennent des portefeuilles d’actions plus diversifiés que les investisseurs domestiques. Ces investisseurs sophistiqués sont plus tolérants au risque, moins sensibles aux pertes et plus instruits en matière financière mais sont sujets au biais national. / We study retail investors’ behavior on financial markets by combining the MiFID questionnaire answers and banking records of more than 98,000 retail clients of a large European retail bank. First, we study stock market participation. We show that retail clients’ self-assessed risk tolerance and attitudes towards losses are strong drivers of stockholding while controlling for classical determinants. Second, under the mental accounting framework, we derive a typology of retail client mental goals and show that retail clients’ actual investment decisions are consistent with their mental goals. Finally, we analyze the behavior of investors directly holding at least one foreign individual stock. We show that they hold more diversified stock portfolios than domestic investors. These sophisticated investors are more risk tolerant, less sensitive to losses and more financially literate but are subject to the home bias.