In this paper, I analyze Bitcoin price formation and adoption rates at a global and national level. In determining Bitcoin prices, I consider contemporaneous and lagged values of traditional determinants of currencies, such as inflation and industrial production, and digital currency specific factors, primarily public interest. Using monthly time-series data across five years (2011 – 2016), I find that global public interest in Bitcoin, measured by Google searches for the keyword ‘Bitcoin,’ has a positive and significant impact on Bitcoin prices. I extend the analysis to a country level by employing a proxy for adoption rates, represented by the number of local Bitcoin client downloads, which is a useful predictor of prices. I examine pooled data across 12 countries to show that searches for ‘Bitcoin’ can be used to predict adoption rates and, consequently, prices. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first academic article to study Bitcoin usage at a national level. I find that contemporaneous values of traditionally used macroeconomic determinants of currency prices, except inflation, do not have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin is an unregulated digital currency originally introduced in 2008 without legal tender status. Based on a decentralized peer-to-peer network to confirm transactions and generate a limited amount of new bitcoins, it functions without the backing of a central bank or any other monitoring authority. In recent years, Bitcoin has seen increasing media coverage and trading volume, as well as major capital gains and losses in a high volatility environment. Interestingly, an analysis of Bitcoin returns shows remarkably low correlations with traditional investment assets such as other currencies, stocks, bonds or commodities such as gold or oil. In this paper, we shed light on the impact an investment in Bitcoin can have on an already well-diversified investment portfolio. Due to the non-normal nature of Bitcoin returns, we do not propose the classic mean-variance approach, but adopt a Conditional Value-at-Risk framework that does not require asset returns to be normally distributed. Our results indicate that Bitcoin should be included in optimal portfolios. Even though an investment in Bitcoin increases the CVaR of a portfolio, this additional risk is overcompensated by high returns leading to better return-risk ratios.

This paper examines the relationship between virtual currency, the Bitcoin, and the real economy. In the first part the description of the term virtual currency is provided with special focus on Bitcoin. Also the legal and taxation issues are discussed. In the main part the volatility of Bitcoin is inspected using various models from Autoregressive heteroskedasticity models family. We found that the volatility of Bitcoin differs significantly through time and that this relation is captured best by T-GARCH (1,1) model. Finally the relationship between Bitcoin and real economy indicators is observed to be inconsistent and mostly insignificant in time. Thus we conclude that the independency of Bitcoin cannot be rejected. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

In this paper we forecast daily returns of crypto-currencies using a wide variety of different econometric models. To capture salient features commonly observed in financial time series like rapid changes in the conditional variance, non-normality of the measurement errors and sharply increasing trends, we develop a time-varying parameter VAR with t-distributed measurement errors and stochastic volatility. To control for overparameterization, we rely on the Bayesian literature on shrinkage priors that enables us to shrink coefficients associated with irrelevant predictors and/or perform model specification in a flexible manner. Using around one year of daily data we perform a real-time forecasting exercise and investigate whether any of the proposed models is able to outperform the naive random walk benchmark. To assess the economic relevance of the forecasting gains produced by the proposed models we moreover run a simple trading exercise.

SELECTED ASPECTS OF BITCOIN AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FROM THE STANDPOINT OF THE LAW AND ECONOMICS Abstract Bitcoin is one of the best-known examples of a decentralized convertible cryptocurrency based on blockchain technology. The diploma thesis deals with the main aspects of bitcoin and bitcoin payment networks in complex economic analysis based on the use of standard economic apparatus. The economic analysis is backed by a thorough and relevant legal research. The main goal of the diploma thesis is complex economic and legal analysis of bitcoin. In economic analysis, the emphasis is put on the use of supply-demand analysis, which outlines the basic factors affecting supply and demand for bitcoins. Based on a clear delineation of these factors, the thesis is able to analyse specific aspects of bitcoin. Diploma thesis analyzes the impacts of decentralized setting, as well as risks associated with anonymity of users, crime in connection with bitcoin, time delays in transaction verification, technical and energetic demands on mining, high transaction costs and internet connection needs. Each of these aspects is compared to existing payment institutions or systems. The thesis also examines the legal regulation of bitcoin. Due to the absence of a complex legal regulation, the diploma thesis tries to apply the...

This dissertation consists of three essays in financial and labor economics. It provides empirical evidence for testing the efficient market hypothesis in some financial markets and for analyzing the trends of power couples’ concentration in large metropolitan areas. The first chapter investigates the Bitcoin market’s efficiency by examining the correlation between social media information and Bitcoin future returns. First, I extract Twitter sentiment information from the text analysis of more than 130,000 Bitcoin-related tweets. Granger causality tests confirm that market sentiment information affects Bitcoin returns in the short run. Moreover, I find that time series models that incorporate sentiment information better forecast Bitcoin future prices. Based on the predicted prices, I also implement an investment strategy that yields a sizeable return for investors. The second chapter examines episodes of exuberance and collapse in the Chinese stock market and the second-board market using a series of extended right-tailed augmented Dickey-Fuller tests. The empirical results suggest that multiple “bubbles” occurred in the Chinese stock market, although insufficient evidence is found to claim the same for the second-board market. The third chapter analyzes the trends of power couples’ concentration in large metropolitan areas of the United States between 1940 and 2010. The urbanization of college-educated couples between 1940 and 1990 was primarily due to the growth of dual-career households and the resulting severity of the co-location problem (Costa and Kahn, 2000). However, the concentration of college-educated couples in large metropolitan areas stopped increasing between 1990 and 2010. According to the results of a multinomial logit model and a triple difference-in-difference model, this is because the co-location effect faded away after 1990.

The cryptocurrency market is continuously growing but is still a relatively unexplored field within academic research. The ambition with this thesis is to increase existing research on market efficiency of cryptocurrencies, by studying the risk exposure of identical investments between different cryptocurrency exchanges. The study includes four cryptocurrencies and nine different exchanges, the data is tested on a full sample period and two subsample periods. The results reveal significant Sharpe ratio differences for identical investments on selected exchanges, but also improved efficiency between the first and second subsample periods. The study concludes that there are significant market inefficiencies on the cryptocurrency market, but the results also suggests that the market is becoming more efficient over time.

The Blockchain concept was originally developed to provide security in the Bitcoin cryptocurrency network, where trust is achieved through the provision of an agreed-upon and immutable record of transactions between parties. The use of a Blockchain as a secure, publicly distributed ledger is applicable to fields beyond finance, and is an emerging area of research across many other fields in the industry. This thesis considers the feasibility of using a Blockchain to facilitate secured information sharing between parties, where a lack of trust and absence of central control are common characteristics. Implementation of a Blockchain Information Sharing system will be designed on an existing Blockchain network with as a communicative party members sharing secured information. The benefits and risks associated with using a public Blockchain for information sharing will also be discussed. / Includes bibliography. / Thesis (M.S.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2019. / FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection

Många länder går mot ett samhälle där kontanter används till en mindre grad vilket har lett till en ökning av elektroniska betalningsmetoder. Utöver kortbetalningsmetoder har andra mer hög teknologiska betalningsmetoder vuxit fram. Bland dem är Bitcoin ett nytt system som vuxit sig relativt stor under de senaste åren. Bitcoin är både kritiserat och hyllat i olika medier. Utifrån de två väletablerade teorierna; Diffusion av innovation och Teknologi acceptans modellen avser studien att identifiera betydande faktorer i Svenska företags adaption av Bitcoin. Denna kvalitativa studie bygger på strukturerade telefon- och mailintervjuer i samband med samling av sekundärdata vilket tillsammans skapar empirins underlag. Studien består av åtta telefonintervjuer och tre mailsvar Studien är av deduktiv natur då den undersöker innovationen utifrån redan befintliga teorier. I användandet av teorin återfinns ingen undersökning av innovationen, istället har innovationer av närliggande karaktär studerats för stödjande av faktorernas vikt för adaptionen av innovationen. Resultaten visar att relativa fördela, kompatibilitet, svårighet att använda och uppfattad risk bör vara de främsta faktorerna. Utöver dessa faktorer finns bevis som pekar på att sociala influenser och tekniskt intresse även är viktiga för Bitcoins adaption.

Bitcoins have the potential to fundamentally change the way value is transferred globally. Their rapid adoption over the past four years has led many to consider the possible results of such a technology. To be a viable currency, however, it is imperative that the market for trading Bitcoins is efficient. By examining the changes in availability of predictable outsized returns and market liquidity over time, this paper examines historical Bitcoin market efficiency and establishes correlations between market liquidity, price predictability, and return data. The results provide insight into the turbulent nature of Bitcoin market efficiency over the past years, but cannot definitively measure the magnitude of the change due to the limitations in efficiency analysis. The most meaningful result of this study, however, is the statistically significant short-horizon price predictability that existed over the duration of the study, which has implications for Bitcoin market efficiency as well as for continued research in short-horizon Bitcoin price forecasting models.