Each year well over one billion movie tickets are sold to an audience who knows very little about what they are getting themselves into. Why is it that despite the uncertainty, people return to the theaters to see what Hollywood has in store for them? In efforts to provide answers regarding the driving forces behind Hollywood’s blockbuster hits, this study takes into account the integration levels of the studios. Specifically, does a movie produced in-house at a large studio have a better chance of being a blockbuster hit than one which is outsourced to an independent production company? Further, I discuss the motivation behind the studios’ decision. While considering the embedded integration within the motion picture industry, this study aims to provide insight regarding the extent of internal studio productions and the effects of these films on the box-office.

Introduction Movies are considered entertainment goods. Entertainment is one of the experience industries. Intangibility, perishability and heterogeneity are the most significant characteristics of the movie industry. An emotional reaction of consumers cannot be calculated in the same sense that most other physical goods can. If the movie succeeded in meeting the expectations, ticket price decreases will not necessarily indicate further purchases in the future. There are high risks and uncertainty in the movie industry. Purpose The purpose of this paper is to define through a hedonic price theory establishing whether the recognition is a significant factor to the global success of movies. The global success of the movies is determined by the global box office revenue. There are eight independent variables tested in this paper: global movie popularity, global popularity of the directors, global popularity of the authors, fame (determined by wining Academy Award), major studios, sequel, family genre and animation genre. Only one control variable, which is year of release, is included. Method The paper uses empirical model and the data set along with the results of the empirical analysis to achieve the purpose. Only secondary data were collected for the paper. Conclusion To reduce uncertainty in movie industry box office revenue, according to the data collected, recognition is significant to the consumers’ willingness to pay. The willingness to pay is determined by the global box office revenue. Only four independent variables, namely: sequels, Academy Award, the global popularity of the directors and the global popularity of the authors of the original script, are significant recognition factors to the global box office revenue. Movie producers shall be aware that consumers have to make sure utility gained from the consumption exceeds the costs in order to make purchases. Based on the sample collected, it can be summarized that consumers of the movie industry in general rely on previous consumption and recognition to reduce risks and uncertainty in terms of making purchases.

abstract: Predictive analytics embraces an extensive area of techniques from statistical modeling to machine learning to data mining and is applied in business intelligence, public health, disaster management and response, and many other fields. To date, visualization has been broadly used to support tasks in the predictive analytics pipeline under the underlying assumption that a human-in-the-loop can aid the analysis by integrating domain knowledge that might not be broadly captured by the system. Primary uses of visualization in the predictive analytics pipeline have focused on data cleaning, exploratory analysis, and diagnostics. More recently, numerous visual analytics systems for feature selection, incremental learning, and various prediction tasks have been proposed to support the growing use of complex models, agent-specific optimization, and comprehensive model comparison and result exploration. Such work is being driven by advances in interactive machine learning and the desire of end-users to understand and engage with the modeling process. However, despite the numerous and promising applications of visual analytics to predictive analytics tasks, work to assess the effectiveness of predictive visual analytics is lacking. This thesis studies the current methodologies in predictive visual analytics. It first defines the scope of predictive analytics and presents a predictive visual analytics (PVA) pipeline. Following the proposed pipeline, a predictive visual analytics framework is developed to be used to explore under what circumstances a human-in-the-loop prediction process is most effective. This framework combines sentiment analysis, feature selection mechanisms, similarity comparisons and model cross-validation through a variety of interactive visualizations to support analysts in model building and prediction. To test the proposed framework, an instantiation for movie box-office prediction is developed and evaluated. Results from small-scale user studies are presented and discussed, and a generalized user study is carried out to assess the role of predictive visual analytics under a movie box-office prediction scenario. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Engineering 2017

Quality signalling in motion picture markets is hardly a new topic. It has been covered by many researchers over the years. However, most of the previous studies focused on quality signals in interactions between moviemakers and moviegoers. This study employs a more holistic approach as the author attempts to evaluate effects of quality signals throughout different stages of movies’ life cycle. The author has identified three audiences that movies are presented to; and, each group of audience generates a quality signal for the next audience. Based on the feedback from test audiences, moviemakers decide on when to show movies to professional critics and when to allow them to publish their reviews. Interpretation of these timelines become quality signals for the professional critics who interpret shorter time slot for review publication as a signal of the low quality of the movie and vice versa. Professional critics write their reviews which when published on review aggregators become quality signals for the moviegoers. Reviews generated by the initial moviegoers are interpreted by the moviegoers who intend to watch movies at a later stage. All three assumptions are operationalised and evaluated in a series of linear regression tests in this research on a sample containing 130 out of 134 widely released movies in the US and Canada domestic market in 2017. All of the abovementioned quality signals found to be significant as they could explain at least 40 % of the variance of respective response variables.

In the eyes of Hollywood producers, film remakes are popular endeavors to undertake. Part of the logic behind remakes is that they will likely perform successfully in the domestic box office because of the tried-and-tested formula that was the remake’s source material as well as the pre-existing fanbase. In addition, over the past two decades the international box office, particularly countries like China and Russia, are overtaking the United States in generating box office revenue. Hence, with the increasing popularity of producing remakes, as well as the growing significance of foreign markets for the entertainment industry, I test whether the international share of the box office is higher for remakes compared to other types of films. I control for several standard variables including type of film, genre, production budget, critical review score, recency of film, and number of installments in the film franchise. In conclusion, I find that although film remakes do not achieve significantly higher foreign box office shares, factors like sequel films, the horror genre, production budget and critical review scores play a significantly positive role in determining foreign box office share, thus indicating the preferences of foreign film audiences.

Context. Online piracy is widespread, controversial and poorly understood social phenomena that affects content creators, owners, and consumers. Online piracy, born from recent, rapid ITC changes, raises legal, ethical, and business challenges. Content owners, authors and content consumers should benefit from better understanding of online piracy. Improved, better adapted to marketplace and ITC changes content distribution models should benefit content owners and audiences.Objectives. Investigate online piracy effect on pirated product sales. Improve understanding of online piracy behaviors and process scale.Methods. This observational study investigated movie-sharing effect on U.S. box office. Movie sharing was observed over BitTorrent network, the most popular peer-to-peer file-sharing network. Relationship between piracy and sales was analyzed using linear regression model.Results. File sharing was found to have a slightly positive correlation with U.S. box office sales during first few weeks after film release, and no effect afterwards. Most of newly released movies are shared over BitTorrent network. File sharing is a global, massive phenomenon.Conclusions. I conclude that online movie file sharing has no negative correlation on U.S. box office. Slightly positive movie sharing correlation to box office sales could have occurred because sharing rather informs, than substitutes cinema going.

The thesis investigates a connection between the publishing industry and the film industry. It analyses whether films based on best-selling books have higher revenues and return on investment compared to films based on unsuccessful books or original scripts. Data for years 2009 -- 2015, focusing on the U.S. entertainment industry, show that film adaptations of best-selling books reach higher revenues during their opening weekend of the theatrical release. The Bestseller Effect weakens once the information about film's quality becomes available to the audience. The success of a book plays negligible role in film's returns on investment. The results of analysis also show great positive significant impact of the production budget, the star cast, films quality and sequels on the films'financial performance.

I detta arbete undersöktes vilka de främsta framgångsfaktorerna var med avseende på biointäkter för en amerikansk film i produktions- och distributionsfasen. Analysen av produktionsfasen baserades på filmer mellan åren 2010-2014 och bestod dels av en övergripande regressionsanalys över alla filmer och dels en genrespecifik regressionsanalys. Undersökningen av distributionsfasen grundade sig i 4p modellen för att visa på filmbolagens strategiska möjligheter. Resultaten visade att det fanns signifikanta faktorer som påverkar biointäkterna både positivt och negativt. Däribland var uppföljare och budget de två faktorerna som hade störst positiv påverkan på biointäkterna för majoriteten av regressionsmodellerna. Den genrespecifka analysen visade även på skillnader för vilka faktorer som bidrar till att öka biointäkterna för de olika genrerna. / This work examined the main drivers behind box office success for American movies in the production- and distribution phase. The data sample consisted of movies released between 2010 and 2014. An overall regression analysis of all movies as well as a genre specific regression analysis were made. The 4ps model of marketing was used to investigate a film studio’s strategic possibilities during the distribution of a film. The results showed that it was possible to determine significant drivers behind a movie’s revenue. Budget and sequel were the two factors that had the largest positive˛ effect on revenue for the majority of the regression models. The genre specific analysis showed that the impact of each factor varied between genres.

This dissertation explores the potential of documentary films to impact the discourse around a public health issue and in particular the current opioid epidemic. In addition to reviewing the history of drug policy and drug epidemics, this dissertation analyzed an HBO documentary about the opioid epidemic as a means of contextualizing the current crisis and understanding whether documentary can change the narrative around a public health matter. A systematic review of the literature was conducted to evaluate the existing published evaluation studies relating to the potential role of documentary films to influence the levers of discourse related to the opioid epidemic and related substance use and mental health disorders and found the existing research was limited to fifty-four citations. Documentaries can have a potential impact on public discourse most notably through raising public awareness but the impact is limited as drug use epidemics are complex and multifactorial. Further study is needed to fully understand the role that documentary films can play in shaping public discourse.

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