Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2016-08-08T12:41:40Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) dissertacao-mestrado-jcpf.pdf: 6512881 bytes, checksum: 0e42b481cf73ab357ca212b410fbd5ee (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-08T12:41:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) dissertacao-mestrado-jcpf.pdf: 6512881 bytes, checksum: 0e42b481cf73ab357ca212b410fbd5ee (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-29 / Prever o sucesso de um filme e, por consequência, seu sucesso nas bilheterias tem uma grande importância na indústria cinematográfica, desde a fase de pré-produção do filme, quando os investidores querem saber quais serão os filmes mais promissores, até nas semanas seguintes ao seu lançamento, quando se deseja prever as bilheterias das semanas restantes de exibição. Por conta disso, essa área tem sido alvo de muitos estudos que tem usado diferentes abordagens de predição, seja na seleção das características dos filmes como nas técnicas de aprendizagem, para atingir uma maior capacidade de prever o sucesso dos filmes. Neste trabalho de mestrado, foi feita uma investigação sobre o comportamento das principais características dos filmes (gênero, classificação etária, orçamento de produção, etc), com maior foco nos resultados das bilheterias e sua relação com as características dos filmes, de forma a obter uma visão mais clara de como as caracaterísticas dos filmes podem influenciar no seu sucesso, seja ele interpretado como lucro ou volume de bilheterias. Em seguida, em posse de uma base de filmes extraída do Box-Office Mojo e do IMDb, foi proposto um novo modelo de predição de box office utilizando os dados disponíveis dessa base, que é composta de: meta-dados dos filmes, palavras-chaves, e dados de bilheterias. Algumas dessas características são hibridizadas com o objetivo evidenciar as combinações de características mais importantes. É aplicado também um processo de seleção de características para excluir aquelas que não são relevantes ao modelo. O modelo utiliza Random Forest como máquina de aprendizagem. Os resultados obtidos com a técnica proposta sugerem, além de uma maior simplificação do modelo em relação a estudos anteriores, que o método consegue obter taxas de acerto superior 90% quando a classificação é medida com a métrica 1-away (quando a amostra é classificada com até 1 classe de distância), e consegue melhorar a qualidade da predição em relação a estudos anteriores quando testado com os dados da base disponível. / Predicting the success of a movie and, consequently, its box office success, has a huge importance in the motion pictures industry. Its importance comes since from the pre-production period, when the investors want to know the most promising movies to invest, until the first few weeks after release, when exhibitors want to predict the box office of the remaining weeks of exhibition. As result, this area has been subject of many studies which have used different prediction approaches, in both feature selection and learning methods, to achieve better capacity to predict movies’ success. In this mastership work, a deep research about the movie’s main features (genre, MPAA, production budget, etc) has been done, with more focus on the results of box offices and its relation with the movie’s features in order to get a clearer view of the organization of information and how variables can influence the success of a film, whether this success be interpreted as profit or revenue volumes at the box office. Then, in possession of a movie database extracted from Box-Office Mojo and IMDb, it was proposed a new box office prediction model based on available data from the database composed of: movie meta-data, key-words and box office data. Some of these features are hybridized aiming to emphasize the most important features’ combinations. A features’ selection process is also applied to exclude irrelevant features. The obtained results with the proposed method suggests, besides a further simplification of the model compared to previous studies, that the method can get hit rate of more than 90% when classification is measured with the metric 1-away (when the sample is classified within 1 class of distance from the right class), and achieve a improvement in the prediction quality when compared to previous studies using the available database.

Since ¡§The City of Sadness¡¨ won the first Golden Lion Award of International Venice Film Festival, winning an international award has become a rule that Taiwanese film do its marketing strategy. However, although ¡§The City of Sadness¡¨ created a high profit in its sales, other awarded movies seem not so lucky in the sales performance. This research mainly bases on the aspect of marketing to study the phenomenon that Taiwanese film industry devotes in attending international film festival as its marketing strategy and further to analyze the relationship between the movie box office and this phenomenon. Secondary data would be employed in this research. As a result, besides ¡§The City of Sadness¡¨, both ¡§The Wedding Banquet¡¨ and ¡§Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon¡¨ also have good performance in their sales. However, the success of these two movies not only resulted from getting awards but also the stories of the movies could attract people to go to the theater. According to the result of this research, we can find that there are more than 400 international film festivals in the world, but only Oscar Award is related with the sales of the film. On the other hand, other film festivals have not been able to attract people as much as ¡§The City of Sadness¡¨ did. Moreover, this situation also can prove one thing: the movie should be developed by commercial mode in order to be accepted by most audiences. To sum up, Taiwanese movies are on purpose (e.g. increase profit and government support) to attend international film festival. However, there are not any benefits to the market of the Taiwan movie and it will let audiences to be distant from their owner entertainments product of their country. If Taiwan government cannot identify the real direction of the Taiwan movies, there is no future of Taiwan movies.

This thesis will discuss the emerging influence of film review aggregators and their effect on the changing landscape for reviews in the film industry. Specifically, this study will look at the top 150 domestic grossing films of 2010 to empirically study the effects of two specific review aggregators. A time-delayed approach to regression analysis is used to measure the influencing effects of these aggregators in the long run. Subsequently, other factors crucial to predicting film success are also analyzed in the context of sustained earnings.

The increasing globalization of entertainment appears to be having a major impact on the dynamics of the American film industry. The U.S. box office is no longer predominant, meaning that in order to most effectively capitalize on the state of the theatrical market, domestic studios must now more heavily incorporate foreign preferences into production strategy. This study explores the financial nuances of the global box office in relation to sequel-driven film franchises, which have seemingly come to dominate commercial filmmaking as a result of their risk-minimized profitability. We focus on discrepancies between foreign and domestic performance in order to analyze the potential motivations behind the shifts in Hollywood’s output. Using OLS and Probit regression models with a variety of dependent and independent variables, this study finds that sequels tend to perform both relatively and absolutely better overseas, that certain genres are received differently abroad than in the U.S., and that the approval of latter sequels tends to be driven more by foreign revenue generated by previous films within franchises.

The main hypothesis of this dissertation says that movies which are shown in cinemas in 2D and also 3D version have greater box office than movies which are shown only in 2D version. The model with two simultaneous equations was constructed to confirm or reject this hypothesis. Data set includes movies which had wide release between January 2009 and December 2011 in the USA. The results show that 3D has no influence in the first week but there are negative significant effect on the number of screens, which could be connected with insufficient capacity of technologically equipped screens, and positive significant effect on revenues in the next nine weeks. The model includes other important and significant factors influencing revenues and the thesis compares these results with recent literature dealing with this topic.

Netflix and other streaming services have grown immensely since they started offering online streaming. In this paper I present a correlation matrix using ticket sales at the domestic box office and the number of Netflix subscribers. They are shown to be negatively correlated with one another, supporting many previous researchers’ thoughts on the topic. I also show using two OLS regressions with data from movies released in 2006-2007 and 2017-2018 that being a part of a franchise has a stronger correlation with increased revenue in the latter model compared to the previous one. In the models one can also see that the general quality of a movie, as measured by IMDb rating, is associated with a higher increase in revenue in the latter model. I argue that this is due to consumers being inclined to watch what they perceive to be high-quality movies in the theaters in the latter model as they can conveniently watch movies of a poorer quality on their streaming service, an option that was not available to the same extent previously. I also argue that consumers are more willing to commit to going to the cinema for a franchise movie, especially in the Marvel cinematic universe, as they are often effects driven movies which are better experienced on a large screen. The budget variable is significant in both models, but the coefficient is much smaller in the second model. I argue that this is due to the fact that a higher budget is required for movies released in 2017-2018 to maintain the same level of revenue as in 2006 and 2007 due to the competition that have come from streaming services. However, I conclude that more research is necessary before drawing definite conclusions as the market for cinema is highly uncertain and difficult to estimate accurately.

Dès les premiers jours de la Libération, de nombreux films sur la Seconde Guerre mondiale vont être projetés dans les salles de cinéma françaises. Entre la fin de l’année 1944 et 1950, ce sont 302 films qui prennent le conflit comme sujet. Pourtant, ces films qui sortent en France ne sont pas issus des mêmes pays, ne datent pas tout à fait de la même période, et n’abordent pas la guerre de la même façon. Surtout, ces films ne vont pas traiter des mêmes victimes de la guerre. Il y a des différences importantes entre une chronique française de l’Occupation, un film de guerre américain, la vision du retour des prisonniers italiens, une histoire de résistants soviétiques ou le récit de vie de citoyens britanniques. Le public français et la presse de l’époque qui commente ces sorties ne reçoivent pas ces différentes visions de la Seconde Guerre mondiale de la même façon. Étudier ces films et l’accueil qui leur a été réservé au lendemain du conflit permet de mieux comprendre la mise en place d’une mythologie de l’évènement en France. Mon étude analyse en trois parties ces représentations des différentes victimes de la guerre, et leur réception dans l’immédiat après-guerre. La première présente les concepts théoriques de l’histoire au cinéma, et l’histoire de la Seconde Guerre mondiale telle qu’elle est visible durant la période, en prenant en compte des statistiques générales élaborées pour cette étude. Les deux parties suivantes proposent des études de cas, sélectionnés pour leur représentativité. On se concentre d’abord sur les différents types de victimes combattantes – les militaires à la guerre, les militaires hors du front, les résistants et enfin les espions et assimilés. Ensuite, on étudie les victimes non-combattantes – les civils occupés, les civils libres, les prisonniers et déportés, les prisonniers de retour, les Juifs et victimes de l’antisémitisme et enfin les enfants. / In the immediate aftermath of the French liberation, theaters across the country began to project movies centered around the recent conflict. Between 1944 and 1950, World War II was the central theme of more than 302 films. However, these films came from different countries; they were not produced at the exact same time; they did not depict the conflict through the same angle; and more importantly, they did not cover the same class of war victims. Wide differences exist between a French chronicle of the Occupation and a U.S. war movie, a depiction of the homecoming of Italian prisoners and the story of soviet resistance or a narration of British citizens’ everyday life during the war. At the time, the response of the French audience and critics to these diverse movie releases varied greatly too. By studying these movies and their reception at the time of their releases, the present study informs our understanding of the emergence of the French mythology surrounding this major conflict. In three chapters, I analyze the cinematographic depictions of various groups of war victims in movies of this era, as well as the audience and critics’ response at the time. In the first chapter, I describe the theoretical underpinnings of the cinema history, as well as the narration of World War II as presented by these movies, using statistics specifically collected for this study. The two following chapters offer a series of representative case studies. I first focus on different groups of victims actively involved in the conflict: militaries on and off the front-lines, members of the resistance, and spies and assimilated individuals. I then study the non-fighting victims: civilians under the occupation, civilians living in the free zone, homecoming prisoners, members of the Jewish community and other victims of antisemitism, and finally, the children.

Bakgrund: Filmklimatet har gjort det svårt för producenter att nå lönsamhet och fånga en stor biopublik. Under 2014 var det 78 % av svensk film som gick med förlust. Filmbranschen har genomgått stora förändringar till följd av digitaliseringen, där den nya tekniken har resulterat i en stor flexibilitet som har medfört att biograferna snabbare kan svara på biopublikens efterfrågan. Filmer kan numera snabbt plockas bort från biorepertoaren. Det har resulterat i att gapet mellan filmer som går bra och filmer som går dåligt har ökat. Aktörer talar om en bransch som präglas av turbulens, osäkerhet och risktagande, där den primära inkomstkällan för producenter är intäkter som genereras från bio. Producenters strategiska val blir allt viktigare för en films överlevnad.  Syfte: Studiens syfte är att undersöka vilka strategiska val en producent kan använda sig av för att en film ska erhålla höga intäkter och nå lönsamhet. Metod: Studien använder sig av en kvantitativ metod som utgår från en deduktiv ansats där 111 filmer har studerats genom regressionsanalyser.  Resultat: Studien har identifierat att budget och huvudrollsinnehavare påverkar en films intäkter. Det går det inte att urskilja vilka strategier som leder till att en film blir lönsamhet.

The aim of the thesis is to examine the relationship between the course of the business cycle and the cycle of the Hollywood film industry. In the introductory section are raised theoretical approaches to the economic cycle, which seeks to clarify the causes of decline of economic activity, and compares the different recommendations. The next section is devoted to clarify the specifics of the film industry and provides a better understanding of non-transparent processes within the industry. The analytical part tests the causal relationship between the economic situation of the individual and the Hollywood studios, based on a sample of 90 observations using the Granger causality test and VAR model. Prior to empirical testing is provided a comprehensive analysis of the industry cycles from the inception to the present and is compared to the economic activity of the country. Finally, the confirmation or refutation of dependence and the result is compared with economic theory.

Dans cette étude des rapports entre le montage et l'idéologie dans le cinéma américain contemporain, (années 1990 - milieu des années 2000) l'objectif est de valoriser les liens entre ces deux entités et d'étudier les mécanismes qui les régissent <br />Le cinéma américain, compris comme un organisme vivant, a connu une grande mutation dans les années 1990, grâce aux nouvelles technologies. Presque tout devenant réalisable, le montage dans le cinéma américain se développe et s'impose, encore plus qu'avant, comme la forme qui permet au récit d'évoluer et au sens de se constituer.<br />L'idéologie, quant à elle, conçue comme un système de représentation d'idées, un système global d'interprétation du monde, est comprise comme un principe fondamental inhérent au cinéma américain, presque au même titre que le montage.<br />Cette étude s'intéresse aux différentes interactions entre les éléments filmiques mis en œuvre à partir d'un « parti pris » idéologique sous-jacent et implicite dans la diégèse, en tentant de disséquer une construction filmique dans laquelle les implications idéologiques ne sont pas annoncées comme point de départ.<br />L'étude du montage est complétée par celle des multiples figures l'entourant, soit le cadre, les effets spéciaux, la musique de film, l'espace et le temps et par celle de l'impact de ce montage sur les spectateurs.<br />Enfin, cette étude se penchera sur le phénomène généré en 2004 par The Passion of the Christ et d'autres films, consacrant le retour, dans le cinéma américain, à un discours plus engagé dans lequel l'idéologie devient plus explicite, sans remettre en cause les acquis de la décennie précédente.