Neste trabalho, o objetivo geral é investigar os processos sinóticos, dinâmicos e termodinâmicos de dois ciclones subtropicais ocorridos no Atlântico Sul. Utilizou-se um algoritmo de rastreamento de máximos de vorticidade ciclônica e o algoritmo Cyclone Phase Space (CPS), que permite classificar o ciclo de vida dos ciclones. Desenvolveu-se um processo de automatização destes algoritmos, que possibilitou a análise dos diagramas de fase de todos os ciclones ocorridos no Atlântico Subtropical durante 2008, 2009 e março de 2010. As condições sinóticas para dois eventos foram analisadas desde o período prévio à formação até o decaimento dos sistemas, e as equações do balanço de vorticidade e de calor foram utilizadas para investigar os processos dinâmicos e termodinâmicos. Embora com fraca intensidade em termos de pressão central, os ciclones tiveram impacto importante nas condições de tempo sobre suas regiões de atuação, e os ventos máximos superaram 15 m/s em 925 hPa por várias horas. Ambos os ciclones apresentaram, ao menos em algum tempo de sua fase subtropical, um pico de advecção horizontal quente em altos níveis, enquanto a advecção horizontal quente em baixos níveis apresentou fraca intensidade. Nos estágios de fase híbrida, o termo diabático foi responsável pelas tendências de aquecimento em baixos níveis. Já durante a fase de transição extratropical ocorrida em um dos ciclones, o sentido dos fluxos turbulentos em superfície se inverteu e o termo diabático passou a contribuir para tendências de resfriamento em baixos níveis. Em altos níveis, foram encontradas regiões em que altos valores positivos do termo diabático da equação da termodinâmica correspondem a regiões de intenso resíduo negativo da equação da vorticidade. Nestas regiões, os processos convectivos podem explicar os imbalanços de vorticidade. Nas demais regiões e níveis em que esta relação não ocorreu, sugere-se que a convecção influencia as variações locais de vorticidade de uma forma mais distribuída na coluna atmosférica, assim como a divergência associada aos movimentos verticais pode ocorrer de forma distribuída ao longo da troposfera. / This work aims to investigate the synoptic and dynamic processes of a sample of subtropical cyclones that occurred near the east coast of South America. A cyclonic vorticity maximum tracking algorithm and the Cyclone Phase Space (CPS) algorithm are used to track and to classify the life cycle evolution of the cyclones. By automating these algorithms, it was possible to perform the analysis of the phase diagrams of all the cyclones occurred in the Subtropical Atlantic during 2008, 2009 and March 2010. The synoptic conditions for two events were analyzed from the period prior to the genesis until the decay of the systems, and the heat and vorticity balance equations were used to investigate the thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Although with low intensity in terms of central pressure, the cyclones had a major impact on the weather conditions in their regions of occurrence, and the 925 hPa maximum sustained winds exceeded 15 m/s for several hours. Both selected cyclones, at least at a time of its subtropical phase, had a peak of warm horizontal advection at higher levels, whilst the warm horizontal advection at lower levels showed weak intensity. In the hybrid stages of both cyclones, the diabatic term was responsible for warming trends at low levels. However, during the extratropical transition in one of the cyclones, the direction of the near-surface turbulent fluxes reversed and the diabatic term began to contribute to cooling trends at low levels. In the upper troposphere, it was found that in some regions that featured large positive values of the thermodynamic equation diabatic term, there was also a significant negative residual of the vorticity equation. In these regions, the convective processes can explain the observed vorticity imbalances. For other regions and levels, at which there was no direct relationship between the residual fields, it is suggested here that convection influences the local variations of vorticity in a more distributed way in the atmospheric column, as well as the divergence associated with the vertical velocities can be more distributed throughout the troposphere, without being concentrated at only some levels.

The climatology of precipitation asymmetries in Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and their relationship to TC intensity changes using 16 years of data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. TC Inner core precipitation asymmetries were quantified using the Fourier wavenumber decomposition method upon the pixel level data of 3,542 TRMM TMI overpasses. Composites of wavenumber–1 and wavenumber 1–6 total precipitation asymmetries were constructed to show the distribution pattern under different storm motion speed, vertical wind shear and the combined effects of varying vertical wind shear and storm motion. Results indicate that motion–relative total precipitation asymmetry is located down–motion. The phase of motion–relative maximum asymmetry shifts cyclonically by adding the wavenumber–2–6 asymmetry to wavenumber–1. Shear is more dominant than motion on the distribution of precipitation asymmetry. The analysis of combined effects of motion and shear shows when shear is weak, and shear is to the left of motion, the precipitation asymmetry is explained more by storm motion. The main contributor to the general asymmetry pattern is from the moderate and heavy precipitation. The wavenumber 2–6 energy localizes the maximum heavy precipitation asymmetry. The quantified wavenumber 1–6 asymmetries is also applied to differentiate between different intensity change categories and the asymmetry evolution of a rapidly intensifying storm. The precipitation asymmetry properties of rapid intensification (RI) and non–RI storms are examined. The dataset of 2,186 global tropical storms through category 2 hurricanes is divided by future 24–h intensity change and includes storms with at least moderately favorable environmental conditions. The normalized wavenumber 1–6 asymmetries, indicates quantitatively that the lower asymmetry of precipitation is most strongly correlated with future intensity change. The precipitation field of non–RI storms are more asymmetric than RI storms. The 595 sampled overpasses are classified into 14 categories in the timeline of an RI event from 48 hours before RI until RI ends. The decrease of normalized wavenumber 1–6 asymmetries in the inner core region of all four types of precipitation several hours before RI onset was quantitatively demonstrated to be critical for TC RI.

Neste trabalho, o objetivo geral é investigar os processos sinóticos, dinâmicos e termodinâmicos de dois ciclones subtropicais ocorridos no Atlântico Sul. Utilizou-se um algoritmo de rastreamento de máximos de vorticidade ciclônica e o algoritmo Cyclone Phase Space (CPS), que permite classificar o ciclo de vida dos ciclones. Desenvolveu-se um processo de automatização destes algoritmos, que possibilitou a análise dos diagramas de fase de todos os ciclones ocorridos no Atlântico Subtropical durante 2008, 2009 e março de 2010. As condições sinóticas para dois eventos foram analisadas desde o período prévio à formação até o decaimento dos sistemas, e as equações do balanço de vorticidade e de calor foram utilizadas para investigar os processos dinâmicos e termodinâmicos. Embora com fraca intensidade em termos de pressão central, os ciclones tiveram impacto importante nas condições de tempo sobre suas regiões de atuação, e os ventos máximos superaram 15 m/s em 925 hPa por várias horas. Ambos os ciclones apresentaram, ao menos em algum tempo de sua fase subtropical, um pico de advecção horizontal quente em altos níveis, enquanto a advecção horizontal quente em baixos níveis apresentou fraca intensidade. Nos estágios de fase híbrida, o termo diabático foi responsável pelas tendências de aquecimento em baixos níveis. Já durante a fase de transição extratropical ocorrida em um dos ciclones, o sentido dos fluxos turbulentos em superfície se inverteu e o termo diabático passou a contribuir para tendências de resfriamento em baixos níveis. Em altos níveis, foram encontradas regiões em que altos valores positivos do termo diabático da equação da termodinâmica correspondem a regiões de intenso resíduo negativo da equação da vorticidade. Nestas regiões, os processos convectivos podem explicar os imbalanços de vorticidade. Nas demais regiões e níveis em que esta relação não ocorreu, sugere-se que a convecção influencia as variações locais de vorticidade de uma forma mais distribuída na coluna atmosférica, assim como a divergência associada aos movimentos verticais pode ocorrer de forma distribuída ao longo da troposfera. / This work aims to investigate the synoptic and dynamic processes of a sample of subtropical cyclones that occurred near the east coast of South America. A cyclonic vorticity maximum tracking algorithm and the Cyclone Phase Space (CPS) algorithm are used to track and to classify the life cycle evolution of the cyclones. By automating these algorithms, it was possible to perform the analysis of the phase diagrams of all the cyclones occurred in the Subtropical Atlantic during 2008, 2009 and March 2010. The synoptic conditions for two events were analyzed from the period prior to the genesis until the decay of the systems, and the heat and vorticity balance equations were used to investigate the thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Although with low intensity in terms of central pressure, the cyclones had a major impact on the weather conditions in their regions of occurrence, and the 925 hPa maximum sustained winds exceeded 15 m/s for several hours. Both selected cyclones, at least at a time of its subtropical phase, had a peak of warm horizontal advection at higher levels, whilst the warm horizontal advection at lower levels showed weak intensity. In the hybrid stages of both cyclones, the diabatic term was responsible for warming trends at low levels. However, during the extratropical transition in one of the cyclones, the direction of the near-surface turbulent fluxes reversed and the diabatic term began to contribute to cooling trends at low levels. In the upper troposphere, it was found that in some regions that featured large positive values of the thermodynamic equation diabatic term, there was also a significant negative residual of the vorticity equation. In these regions, the convective processes can explain the observed vorticity imbalances. For other regions and levels, at which there was no direct relationship between the residual fields, it is suggested here that convection influences the local variations of vorticity in a more distributed way in the atmospheric column, as well as the divergence associated with the vertical velocities can be more distributed throughout the troposphere, without being concentrated at only some levels.

Mit dem mesoskaligen nichthydrostatischen Modell "Lokal Modell" (LM) des Deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD) werden die Vorgänge in einer Orkanzyklone simuliert. Als Beispiel wird das Tiefdruckgebiet Ginger aus dem Jahr 2000 dargestellt. Die meteorologischen Antriebsdaten wurden durch das globale Modell des DWD erzeugt. Die Auswirkungen von Veränderungen verschiedener Bedingungen auf die Entwicklung der Zyklone, und vor allem auf das Windfeld, sollen untersucht werden. Dazu werden die Antriebsdaten künstlich verändert. Im Beispiel wird der horizontale Temperaturgradient geändert, und die Folge auf Druckverteilung und Windgeschwindigkeit betrachtet. Da das LM nur einen Ausschnitt aus der Atmosphäre simuliert, kommt es durch die Eingriffe in die Antriebsdaten zu Problemen am Rand. Ein Verfahren wird getestet, um diese zu vermeiden. / The development of a cyclone is simulated with the nonhydrostatic limited area model "Lokal Modell" (LM) of the German Weather Service (DWD). The cyclone Ginger which occurred in 2000 serves as an example. The forcing data were generated by the global model of the DWD. The effects of various conditions were considered contributing to the evolution of Ginger and mainly to its velocity field. For this purpose, the forcing data were artificially varied. As an example the horizontal temperature gradient was changed. The effects on the pressure field and its corresponding velocity field are discussed. As the LM simulates only a limited area, the lateral bounds become problematic because of the manipulated forcing data. A procedure is tested, in order to prevent this problems.

Thesis advisor: Amy Frappier / Tropical cyclones (TCs), known as hurricanes in the Atlantic and Typhoons in the Pacific, are among the most destructive and deadly natural disasters that occur on Earth. Attempts to understand how TCs relate to the global climate system, and future risk assessments are dependent upon having records of TC activity that pre-date the modern meteorological records, which are commonly not older than 130 years (Nott, 2003). Paleotempestology is a sub-discipline of paleoclimatology that attempts to extend the TC record beyond the meteorological record through the use of proxies. Presented here is the establishment of a paleotempestology proxy based on clastic mud being suspended in the water column by floods caused by TCs and deposited in stalagmite CH-1, collected in June of 2007 from Cenote Chaltun-Ha, a low-lying cave from the Yucatán Peninsula. CH-1 was dated by a combination of <super>210</super>Pb, U/Th, and layer counting techniques, creating an age model for its entire length. The years with mud layers were compared to the historical TC record from 1852-2006. Nineteen mud layers were identified for this time period. All of the mud layers deposited in years with at least one TC passing within 330 km of Cenote Chaltun-Ha. A total of 265 mud layers were identified in CH-1 dating from 198 BC to 2006 AD. Relatively high TC frequency, ~16 mud layers/century, was recorded in CH-1 from 198 BC to ~1233 AD. This period was followed by eight centuries of relatively low TC frequency, ~7 mud layers/century. The low frequency period hit a low point in the 1600s with 4 mud layers. Since the 1600s the TC frequency recorded in CH-1 has been on the rise, indicating possible periods of higher than present TC frequency in the future for the Yucatán region. This trend of high TC frequency followed by a sudden drop and subsequent increase is also reported in published sand overwash deposit research. &#948;;<super>18</super>O and &#948;;<super>13</super> values collected from CH-1 provide insight into the timing of regional droughts. A low &#948;;<super>18</super>O value from 1815 provides evidence that "The Year Without a Summer" caused by the 1815 eruption of the Tambora volcano in Indonesia had a climatic effect on the Yucatán. A land-use signal related to the agricultural production boom of Agave Fourcroydes, a succulent plant known as Henequen, in the early 20th century was also detected in &#948;;<super>13</super>C values. / Thesis (MS) — Boston College, 2010. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Geology and Geophysics.

Os ciclones secundários são sistemas que ainda não são bem definidos e, assim, são fenômenos de difícil previsibilidade, necessitando de mais estudos para identificar os sinais que disparam seu desenvolvimento. Neste estudo realizou-se um levantamento climatológico e estudo numérico de ciclogênese secundária no sudoeste do Oceano Atlântico Sul com o objetivo de obter informações sobre a atuação destes sistemas e entender os processos dinâmicos envolvidos no seu desenvolvimento. Para o período entre 1980 e 2010, a climatologia mostra que uma média de 3,9 sistemas secundários se forma por ano no Oceano Atlântico Sul. Estes sistemas ocorrem com maior e menor frequência nos meses frios e quentes, respectivamente. Dois tipos distintos de ciclones secundários foram encontrados. TIPO1 que se forma a leste e na região da frente quente do ciclone primário. Estes sistemas se desenvolvem sob advecção quente nos baixos níveis e pouca influência de anomalias de vorticidade potencial (VP) de altos níveis; TIPO2 se desenvolve a oeste/noroeste do ciclone primário onde predomina forte advecção fria em baixos níveis. No entanto, fluxos de calor e umidade intensos contribuem para aquecer a baixa troposfera e em altos níveis são forçados por anomalias de VP. Simulações numéricas com o modelo Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) indicam os fluxos de calor sensível e latente na superfície como mecanismos de intensificação dos ciclones secundários TIPO1 e TIPO2, sendo o fluxo de calor latente mais importante no abaixamento de pressão destes sistemas. Os experimentos numéricos mostram que o ciclone do TIPO2 não se desenvolve na ausência de anomalia de VP, enquanto que o TIPO1 se desenvolve mais fraco e atrasado no tempo. A análise por separação de fatores indica que a anomalia de VP e algum outro mecanismo não relacionado aos fatores avaliados nas simulações tiveram papel disparador no ciclone do TIPO1, enquanto a interação da anomalia de VP com os fluxos de superfície atuou como intensificador. No TIPO2, o desenvolvimento ocorreu unicamente pela atuação da anomalia de VP, a qual também agiu como um intensificador juntamente com os fluxos de calor e umidade, bem como os processos de interação entre estes dois fatores. / Secondary cyclones are systems that are not well defined yet and they are difficult to predict, requiring further studies to identify the signals that trigger their development. In this study we carried out a climatology and numerical study of secondary cyclogenesis over the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean in order to obtain information about these systems and understand the dynamic processes involved in its development. The climatology for the period 1980-2010 shows that an average of 3.9 secondary systems per year develops in the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean. These systems occur with more and less frequency in the colder and warmer months, respectively. Two distinct types of secondary cyclones were found. TYPE1 forms eastward and over the warm front region of the primary cyclone. These systems develop due to warm advection at lower levels and relatively weak influence of potential vorticity (PV) anomalies at upper levels. TYPE2 develops westward/northwestward of the primary cyclone where strong cold advection predominates at lower levels. However, in this type, the lower troposphere is heated due to intense heat and moisture fluxes and at upper levels it is forced by PV anomalies. Numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) indicate that the sensible and latent heat fluxes on surface act as intensification mechanisms for both TYPE1 and TYPE2 secondary cyclones and that the latent heat flux influences more on decreasing the pressure in these systems. The numerical experiments show that the cyclone TYPE2 does not develop in the absence of PV anomalies, while the TYPE1 does, but it is relatively weaker and delayed in time. Factors separation analysis indicates that the PV anomaly and some other mechanism unrelated to the factors evaluated in the simulations have a triggering role in the development of the secondary cyclone TYPE1, while the interaction of PV anomaly with surface fluxes acted to intensify the cyclone. The TYPE2 development occurred solely due to PV anomaly, which also acted to intensifying together with heat/moisture fluxes on surface as well as the interaction processes of these two factors.

<p>This MSc thesis contributes with new information on how vulnerability to tropical cyclone (TC) induced flooding has evolved at two coastal lowland study sites in the town of Corinto in Nicaragua over a period of 50 years. The research was done through rain station data analyses, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions. Analyses of changing poverty, human mobility, housing conditions, and occurrence of flood-related diseases were used as additional indicators supporting the overall vulnerability assessment.</p><p>The recent increase in the North Atlantic TC activity can not be seen in the data from Corinto. The both studied neighborhoods built on dump-sites and mangrove marsh have clearly become less exposed, less sensitive, and more resilient to external stress brought by TCs. These two sites have been developing into different directions since one has reached a more prosper status whereas the other is still rather marginal. The former has been supported by the local government while the latter has been growing in a less regulated way.</p><p>This thesis suggests that there are coastal communities in developing countries, which are able to cope with and adapt to extreme climate events even though this kind of vulnerability has been predicted to increase due to global warming.</p>

This MSc thesis contributes with new information on how vulnerability to tropical cyclone (TC) induced flooding has evolved at two coastal lowland study sites in the town of Corinto in Nicaragua over a period of 50 years. The research was done through rain station data analyses, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions. Analyses of changing poverty, human mobility, housing conditions, and occurrence of flood-related diseases were used as additional indicators supporting the overall vulnerability assessment. The recent increase in the North Atlantic TC activity can not be seen in the data from Corinto. The both studied neighborhoods built on dump-sites and mangrove marsh have clearly become less exposed, less sensitive, and more resilient to external stress brought by TCs. These two sites have been developing into different directions since one has reached a more prosper status whereas the other is still rather marginal. The former has been supported by the local government while the latter has been growing in a less regulated way. This thesis suggests that there are coastal communities in developing countries, which are able to cope with and adapt to extreme climate events even though this kind of vulnerability has been predicted to increase due to global warming.

Les cyclones extra-tropicaux constituent un élément important du climat, particulièrement dans les régions continentales situées aux latitudes moyennes et élevées. Selon les études basées sur l'usage des modèles mondiaux du climat, une hausse de la concentration du CO2 pourrait mener à un abaissement du nombre de cyclones extra-tropicaux et à un renforcement de leur intensité. Le but de ce projet a été d'examiner l'effet du changement climatique sur le comportement des cyclones tels que simulés par le modèle couplé (atmosphère-océan) canadien (MCCG3). L'approche utilisée ici afin d'accomplir les objectifs est la suivante. D'abord, les cyclones extra-tropicaux ont été identifiés et tracés, aux 6 heures, à l'aide de l'algorithme de Sinclair (1997). Par la suite, les statistiques d'un ensemble de trajectoires sur 30 ans simulés sont calculées. Dans le cadre de l'évaluation du MCCG3, l'analyse a été effectuée pour la période de 1961 à 1990, dans l'hémisphère Nord (au nord du 200 N). En général, nous avons constaté que les résultats du MCCG3 concordent très bien avec ceux des ré-analyses ERA-40. Par contre, la comparaison entre les statistiques calculées sur la période du climat récent et celles du climat futur (2041 à 2070), a montré qu'il n'y a pas de changements importants de l'activité des cyclones hivernaux en Amérique du Nord, en réponse aux changements climatiques. ______________________________________________________________________________ MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : cyclones, tourbillon, trajectoires, ré-analyses, modèle, climat, variabilité.

In the present study we use Argo float data, in-situ shipboard ADCP data,IFREMER wind stress curl data, QuikSCAT wind data and AVISO sea level anomaly data from 2006 to 2010 to investigate hydrographical characteristics and surface and deep currents in the seas surrounding Taiwan. The studied areas consist of the followings: the cyclonic eddy off the northeastern Taiwan coast, flow structure of the Luzon Strait, anticyclonic eddies off the southwestern Taiwan coast and east of Kuroshio. Our results found that some Argo floats drifting northward with the Kuroshio were occasionally intruded to the continental shelf off the northeastern Taiwan at 25¢XN-26¢XN,122¢XE-123¢XE. Statistics indicate that this phenomenon occurs most frequently in winter, and float profiling data reveal a marked upwelling above 150m depth. Temperature drops within this area can reach 5.1¢J and 8¢J, respectively at 50m and 100m depths. A deep southward current with a maximum speed of 30 cms can be found to exist between northeastern Taiwan and Kuroshio. On the other hand, Surface flows have strong seasonal variations in the Luzon strait, i.e., toward the southeastern side of Taiwan in the summer and intrude into the South China Sea (SCS) in the fall and winter. Deep currents in the Luzon Strait, however, flow mostly into the SCS regardless of seasonality. Maximum speed of deep current can reach 6 cms . Mixed-layer depth in the northern SCS is approximately 50m in the spring and summer, and about 110m depth in winter. The third part of this thesis concerns with the anticyclonic circulation off the southwestern Taiwan coast. Float observations show that this circulation exists almost all year round in 2009. Surface currents have a maximum speed in early May, reaching 104 cms , and the wind stress curl attains a maximum negative value. It is conjectured that this anticyclonic eddy is generated primarily due to the restriction of local coast and topography, and the wind stress curl is the secondary mechanism. Surface current derived from Shipboard ADCP is also consistent with the float results. The diameter of this eddy is about 110 km. T-S characteristics of Kuroshio can be observed at 150-210m depth, indicating a close link between this eddy and the Kuroshio. Finally, anticyclonic warm eddies east of Kuroshio are also investigated from the float data. It is found that the eddy flow structure in this region is more obvious in depths than in surface. Temperature distribution below the depth of 200 m also confirms the warm core structure. At an event during which when one float incidentally travelling through a cold eddy and an adjacent warm eddy, the temperature difference can reach 4.5 ¢J at 160m depth. The warm eddies are found to be more stable and more frequently observed than the cold eddies in this region.