nÃo hà / O objetivo do presente estudo visou investigar possÃveis impactos provenientes da crise financeira de 2008 nas aÃÃes das instituiÃÃes financeiras brasileira. Logo apÃs duas dÃcadas de instabilidade, planos econÃmicos malsucedidos e ciclos de crescimento pouco consistentes, chegou-se finalmente, apesar de alguns problemas, diante de um conjunto concreto de oportunidades para avanÃar significativamente no mercado financeiro. O Brasil assegurou diante do mundo um nÃvel de excepcional desempenho no setor financeiro, com instituiÃÃes financeiras que se projetaram como modelos de excelÃncia nos mais diversos segmentos de atuaÃÃo. Com esta finalidade, foram utilizadas algumas mÃtricas estatÃsticas descritivas agregadas Ãs diversas formas de risco e de performance das distribuiÃÃes de retorno lÃquido nominal diÃrio das aÃÃes das empresas que compÃem setor analisado, com periodicidade semestral de 2005 a 2010. Utilizou-se como benchmark o IBOVESPA. Possivelmente em funÃÃo de alguns fatores como, a forte contraÃÃo do crÃdito, o nÃvel de desconfianÃa dos investidores nos sistemas financeiros e diminuiÃÃo da demanda externa pelos produtos brasileiros, fizeram com que os retornos diÃrios das aÃÃes das empresas individuais, assim como o retorno do Ãndice de mercado IBOVESPA, reagissem à crise com perdas acumuladas expressivas. A direÃÃo da variaÃÃo e o valor das aÃÃes foram previstos pelo arcabouÃo microfundamentado dado pelo Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). No perÃodo pÃs-crise, o setor reagiu e demonstrou uma significativa recuperaÃÃo prevista pelos fundamentos e os retornos das aÃÃes das instituiÃÃes superaram o Ãndice de mercado. Ao mesmo tempo as anÃlises estatÃsticas foram favorÃveis ao setor financeiro, apresentando menor desvio padrÃo e boa performance dos Ãndices de Sharpe, Sortino, Treynor e Calmar. Com a utilizaÃÃo do CAPM, e das regressÃes computacionais estimadas, testando os retornos das aÃÃes das instituiÃÃes financeiras analisadas, o estudo demonstrou que as aÃÃes acompanharam as movimentaÃÃes do mercado, variando positivamente o que deveria e desvalorizando quando os fundamentos sinalizavam que deveriam, mostrando-se de acordo com a teoria de precificaÃÃo de ativos. / The aim of this study was to investigate possible impacts from the 2008 financial crisis in the actions of the Brazilian financial institutions. Soon after two decades of instability, economic plans and unsuccessful cycles of growth inconsistent, it was finally, despite some problems, before a concrete set of opportunities to advance significantly in the financial market. Brazil is assured before the world an exceptional level of performance in the financial sector, with financial institutions that are designed as models of excellence in various segments. For this purpose, we used some descriptive statistics aggregated metrics to the various forms of risk and performance of the distributions of nominal daily net return of the stocks of companies that comprise the sector analyzed, every six months from 2005 to 2010. Was used as the benchmark Bovespa Index. Possibly due to such factors as the sharp contraction of credit, the level of distrust of investors in financial systems and reduced foreign demand for Brazilian products, made daily stock returns of individual companies, as well as the return of the index IBOVESPA market, react to the crisis with significant accumulated losses. The direction of change and shareholder value have been provided by microfundamentado framework given by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In the post-crisis period, the industry reacted and demonstrated a significant recovery predicted by fundamentals and stock returns of institutions exceeded the market index. While statistical analyzes were favorable to the financial sector, with lower standard deviation and good performance of the Sharpe ratios, Sortino, Treynor and Calmar. Using the CAPM, and the computational estimated regressions, testing the stock returns of financial institutions analyzed, the study demonstrated that accompanied the stock market movements, which should vary positively and devaluing the fundamentals signaled when they should, showing in accordance with the theory of asset pricing.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:32:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Peterson Nery Laurindo.pdf: 808755 bytes, checksum: 117488f1a33020cd6cedb85678dc027d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-02-11 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / This research aimed to test empirically the efficiency of the Brazilian stock market represented by the São Paulo Stock Exchange portfolio - São Paulo Stock exchange in a global crisis period, performed the announcements dates of the events that are the ITR's - the quarterly financial statements of the first quarter of 2008 until as the second quarter of 2009, made by event study s methodology representing better the semi-strong efficiency, it verified if had significant alterations in the stock prices, had been measured by the AR abnormal return, caused by the event announcement, where the AR significance was measured by the sign test, and its expected return measured by the CAPM Capital Asset Pricing Model. Therefore, the empirical test lead the conclusion the announcements had caused significant alterations in the stock prices, given the CAR - accumulated average abnormal returns behavior, had reacted as the expected one, then the CAR had reacted in compliance with of the good news classifications where represented 20% of the net profits increase of the company in relation the same period of the previous year, and for the bad news 20% net profits decrease, and for the classification of no news the companies that they had had the net profits nor over and nor below of 20% deviation. Thus the CAR sign test got the statistical of -3,27, out of the critical value of 1,64 to -1,64 of the normal distribution, indicating the Brazilian stock market adjusts the stock prices around the quarterly financial statements in global period of crisis, also indicating the semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis. / Esta pesquisa visou testar empiricamente a eficiência do mercado acionário brasileiro representado pela carteira da Bovespa Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo em um período de crise, compreendido entre as datas dos anúncios dos eventos que são os ITR s - as demonstrações financeiras trimestrais do primeiro trimestre de 2008 até o segundo trimestre de 2009, viabilizado pela metodologia do estudo de eventos que melhor representa a eficiência semiforte, e que verificou se houve alterações significantes nos preços das ações, medidos pelo AR retorno anormal, causados pelo anúncio do evento, onde a significância do AR foi medida pelo teste dos sinais e seu retorno esperado medido pelo CAPM modelo de precificação de ativos. Portanto, de acordo com o teste empírico entende-se que os anúncios causaram alterações significantes nos preços das ações, dado o comportamento dos CAR retornos anormais acumulados médios, reagindo conforme o esperado. Desta forma, os CAR reagiram em conformidade com as classificações de notícias boas que representou 20% de aumento do lucro líquido da empresa em relação ao mesmo período do ano anterior, para as notícias ruins 20% de diminuição no lucro líquido, e para a classificação de sem notícias as empresas que tiveram o lucro líquido nem acima e nem abaixo de 20% de variação. Assim, o teste dos sinais do CAR obteve estatística de -3,27, fora do valor crítico de 1,64 a -1,64 da tabela de distribuição normal, indicando que o mercado acionário brasileiro ajusta os preços das ações ao redor das demonstrações financeiras trimestrais mesmo em período de crise, indicando também a forma semiforte da hipótese do mercado eficiente.

The thesis investigates relationship between daily stock return volatility of Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks and data obtained on Twitter, the social media network. The Twitter data set contains a number of tweets, categorized according to their polarity, i.e. positive, negative and neutral sentiment of tweets. We construct two classes of models, GARCH and ARFIMA, where for either of them we research basic model setting and setting with additional Twitter variables. Our goal is to compare, which of them predicts the one day ahead volatility most precisely. Besides, we provide commentary regarding the effects of Twitter volume variables on future stock volatility. The analysis has revealed that the best performing model, given the length and structure of our data set, is the ARFIMA model augmented on Twitter volume residuals. In the context of the thesis, Twitter volume residuals represent unexpected activity on the social media network and are obtained as residuals from Twitter volume autoregression. Plain ARFIMA model was the second best and plain volume augmented ARFIMA was in third place. This means that all three ARFIMA models outperformed all three GARCH models in our research. Regarding the Twitter estimation parameters, we found that higher the activity the higher tomorrow's stock...

This thesis deals with the performance evaluation of a selected group of insurance companies. The text is divided into several parts and begins with the explanation of theoretical frameworks for both insurance and the ranking process. This knowledge is then applied to the object of analysis. Mainly the financial performance of insurers was assessed, by means of the so-called spread indicator. Hence, part of the analysis is also a cost of equity calculation with the help of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The outcome of this work is the ranking of analyzed insurance companies by their financial performance in 2007-2009. The contribution of the work can be seen not only in forming the ranking, but in demonstration of a practical application of the chosen methodology as well as in description of its advantages and disadvantages.

Den svenska riksdagen röstade 2018-06-07 ja till regeringens förslag om en ny spellag. Den nya spellagen innebär bland annat införandet av ett licenssystem för spelbolag verksamma på den svenska spelmarknaden. Denna studie undersöker huruvida nyheter om beviljade licenser leder till positiv avkastning hos spelbolagens aktier. För att undersöka effekten av nyheterna utförs en eventstudie med licensierade spelbolag på den svenska och norska aktiemarknaden. Eventstudien undersöker eventfönster som består av en, fem, tio och tjugo dagar där signifikansen testas genom ett t-test. Resultaten visar att den kumulativa genomsnittliga abnormala avkastningen är signifikant för eventfönster med längd av en dag, men icke-signifikant för eventfönster med längd av fem, tio och tjugo dagar.

Van Rensburg and Robertson (2003a) stated that the CAPM beta has little or no relationship with returns generated by size and price to earnings sorted portfolios. This study intends to demonstrate that a reformulated CAPM beta, estimated using return on equity as opposed to share returns, unravels the size and value premium. The study proves that the “cash-flow” generated beta partially explains the cross-sectional variation in share returns when measured over the long run, specifically when portfolios are sorted on book to market, however the cash flow beta is less successful when attempting to explain the small size premium. The premise of the study is that the cash flow dynamics of share returns eventually dominate the first and second moments and thus result in cash flow based measures of risk and return that should succeed in explaining the cross-sectional variation in share returns. The study makes use of vector autoregressive models in order to examine the short term effect of structural shocks to the cash flow fundamentals of a stock or portfolio through impulse response functions as well as quantifying a long-term relationship between cash flow fundamentals and share returns using a VECM specification. The study further uses fixed effects, random effects and GMM/dynamic panel data cross-sectional regressions in order to examine the ability of the cash flow beta explaining the value and size premium. The results of the study are mixed. The cash flow beta does well in explaining the returns of portfolios sorted on book to market, but fails to do the same with size sorted portfolios. In the cash flow betas favour, it performs far better than the conventionally measured CAPM beta throughout the study.

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2015. / Researchers have suggested that emerging markets’ activity is driven largely by unlisted companies. These companies are dynamic, and show a relatively equitable income distribution. However, they operate under severe challenges which can be a deterrent to their success. In spite of these difficulties, the companies form exceptional investment targets due to their innovative abilities, ability to customize products and formulate business models that reduce bottlenecks and input costs as well as take advantage of economies of scale and scope. Important risk factors such as: political, currency, corporate governance and information risks, amongst others, should be factored in during the valuation process of emerging market companies. In this paper, several criteria are used to assess thirteen popular emerging market valuation models’ ability to effectively incorporate these risks. Based on the outcomes of the assessment a best fit model is selected. However, none of the emerging market valuation models explicitly factor in irrationality of market participants. In order to address this, the study focuses on seven behavioural approaches to valuation under the assumption of investor rationality and managerial overconfidence and/or optimism, with a purpose to select one to include in the above mentioned “best fit” emerging market valuation models. Next, assessment mechanisms for adapting these two models for private company valuation were flagged by discussing approaches currently used in academia and corporate finance. Finally, possible means of combining the three objectives, and assessing the success of doing so, as an area for further research, were recommended. Key Words: emerging markets, valuation, risk premium, country risk, systematic risk, unsystematic risk, private companies, managerial overconfidence, managerial optimism, irrationality, efficient markets, capital asset pricing model

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo analizar el uso y aplicación del modelo de valoración de activos de capital, CAPM, como herramienta de planificación y evaluación financiera, comparándolo con otros modelos alternativos. El CAPM propone una relación entre el riesgo y rendimiento de un activo. El riesgo está representado por el coeficiente beta, que mide la sensibilidad del instrumento financiero en relación con el riesgo sistemático, ya sea en un portafolio de activos o en la valoración de una empresa. Debido a que existen críticas sobre la validez del CAPM, en este estudio se busca conocer la efectividad que tiene el uso y la aplicación del modelo. Para ello, se han buscado evidencias empíricas, en diferentes países, y sectores económicos en las que se compara el CAPM con otros modelos alternativos, tales como el APT o el de Tres Factores Fama y French que, según la investigación realizada, serían los más utilizados. Los resultados de esta investigación muestran que el CAPM no ofrece necesariamente resultados positivos significativos en los estudios revisados. Sin embargo, ello no quiere decir que el CAPM no sea un modelo suficiente para predecir la relación riesgo – rentabilidad en los casos en los que se aplica. Se concluye por ello que, a pesar de que existen modelos alternativos tratando de superar las limitaciones del CAPM, hoy en día este modelo sigue siendo el más utilizado fundamentalmente por su sencillez y por su capacidad de explicar y predecir, de manera suficiente, en la mayoría de las aplicaciones generales. / The objective of this paper is to analyze the use and application of the capital asset pricing model, CAPM, as a planning and financial evaluation tool and to compare it with other alternative models. The CAPM propose a relationship between the risk and return of an asset. The risk is represented by coefficient called beta, which measures the sensitivity of the financial asset in relation to it´s systematic risk, either in a portfolio or in the valuation of a company. Given that there are controversies about the validity of the CAPM, the study is gad is to understand the effectiveness of the use and application of the model. In order to do that, evidence, in different countries and economic sectors, is presented in which the CAPM is compared with other alternative models, such as the APT or the Fama and French Three Factor, according to this investigation would be the most used. The results of this investigation shown that, the CAPM, even though it is not able to offer significant positives results in the studies reviewed. However, it is not a sufficient model for predictins the risk - return relationship in the cases where it applies. It is concluded for that, although there are alternatives models trying to overcome the limitations of the CAPM, this model is nowadays the most used yet, fundamentally because of its simplicity and its ability to explain and predict, in a sufficient fashion, in most of the general applications. / Trabajo de Suficiencia Profesional

This thesis has the intention to investigate the risk situation for small investors in the domestic residential property market in Sweden, and discuss some alternatives for reducing that risk. Focus will be on risk reduction by diversification. Residential property is considered to be a rather safe investment for the long term investor. The return is determined by the change of value for the property (capital growth), and the direct return through net rental income. When investments in residential property are compared with other types of investments, they have high returns compared to their stan-dard deviation. Diversification gains are described in the frame of the Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM). The CAPM shows that portfolios based on residential property can reduce their risk and maintain the same level of returns through diversification. To get the best effect out of this diversification this should be done with assets that are least correlated with residential property. This thesis has tested with other residential property, other real estate and equities/bonds. Of which equities/bonds gave the best results. An optimal portfolio based on historical data from 1984 – 2003 suggests a portfolio with 40 -60 % residential property, 30 – 60 % bonds and 0 – 10 % equities. This is with a risk free rate between 3 – 11 %. The debt ratio for this portfolio is determined by the investor’s risk-aversity and utility function. The positive effects from diversification have to be compared to the increased scale effect from investing in more residential property when chosing new investment items. Investors can get a good diversification performance even with a few stakes. The main point in this thesis is that investors with residential property can get positive effects from diversification and the effects from diversification increase the more different the investments are.

Since 1994 when the Warsaw Stock Exchange has been acknowledged as a full member of World Federation of Exchanges and became one of the fastest developing security markets in the region, it has been hard to find any studies relating to the assets price performance on this exchange. That is why I decided to write this paper in which the Nobel price winning theory namely the Capital Asset Pricing Model has been tested. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (or CAPM) is an equilibrium model which relates asset’s risk measured by beta to its returns. It states that in a competitive market the expected rate of return on an asset varies in direct proportion to its beta. In this paper the performance of 100 stocks traded continuously on the main market in the years 2002-2006 has been tested. I have performed three independent tests of the CAPM based on different methods and techniques to better check the validity of the theory and then compared the results. As in the case of many other studies of the Capital Asset Pricing Model, this one didn’t find a complete support for the model but couldn’t reject some of its features either.