published_or_final_version / Politics and Public Administration / Master / Master of Philosophy

Since 1979, China embarked on an economic reform to modernize the country. The reform was so successful that China was able to grow by an impressive rate of 9 percent per anum between 1979 and 1997. The rapid development of the economy leads to a drastic increase in demand for energy. Since China has the largest population in the world, its energy demand is nothing but huge. Each year, for example, China needs to install as much as 10,000 MW of new electricity generation capacity, which equals the curent capacity of Netherlands. This increase in demand for energy, which is likely to continue, wil have implications for global energy markets, the world price of energy and for the global environment as emissions of greenhouse gases grow rapidly. Against this background, there is an urgent need for the country to better manage the energy sector so that the market can function in an orderly manner. To tackle this issue, I single out three important energy problems to study. First, I wil examine the current situation of the energy imbalance in China. Second, I wil forecast how rapid the energy demand wil grow in future so that the deficit between the demand and domestic supply can be identified. Lastly, I wil discuss some methods that can be used to manage the demand. My finding shows that energy-capital and energy-material inputs are complementary, whereas the relationship of energy and labour is insignificant. In addition, the simulation exercises also reveals that a high energy pricing policy might not be effective in mitigating the demand and in encouraging firms to employ labour intensive techniques. Also, rising energy prices may bring spiral inflation and deterioration in the balance of payments and foreign resources. Therefore, government should act cautiously when increasing energy prices.

This thesis presents an empirical analysis of direct foreign investments in manufacturing in Hong Kong. The analysis is based upon two main data sources - Hong Kong government statistics and a questionnaire survey conducted in March 1979. The data collected are put together to provide a comprehensive picture of the investment pattern of the foreign manufacturers and to pinpoint their economic significance to Hong Kong. Their operational characteristics as well as their motives and needs are also explored to give better insights into their activities and to test the validity of direct foreign investment theories. Hong Kong has an extremely liberal economic policy and there is very little government intervention in private business activities. This policy is extended to its treatment of foreign investment. The outstanding feature is that it does not differentiate between foreign and local corporations. Consequently, there is no special restriction on foreign investment, but neither is any concession given. Foreign investors find this policy most agreeable. There is intensive and diversified foreign investment interest in Hong Kong. With the only exception of manufacturing, foreign investors now hold dominating positions in all major economic sectors. The number of foreign manufacturers comprises only about one percent of the total number of manufacturing establishments in Hong Kong, but their contributions in terms of providing industrial employment and exports are approximately ten times as much. More significantly, their investments have helped Hong Kong very much in its efforts to upgrade and diversify its industries. They are an important agent for transferring technology into Hong Kong. Foreign investors in manufacturing have come mostly from the U.S., Japan, Western Europe and Asian Pacific countries. The industries in which they have invested most are electronics, textiles, chemical products and electrical products. Foreign investments in manufacturing in Hong Kong are mostly of the export oriented type. There are close links in management, production and marketing established between the foreign manufacturers and their overseas affiliates indicating that their operations are integrated. Furthermore, foreign manufacturers appear to have a higher degree of sophistication and diversification in their production and marketing operations than their local counterparts. A comparison between U.S. and Japanese investment characteristics shows that four out of five hypothetical propositions derived from theoretical U.S. and Japanese foreign investment models are supported. There is enough evidence to indicate that the industries in which Japanese corporations invested are different and are technologically less advanced, that Japanese manufacturing operations are more labour intensive, that Japanese firms use unadapted home country technology more often and that Japanese firms export back to Japan a greater proportion of their sales than U.S. firms do to the U.S. The only one of the hypotheses examined which cannot be supported is that there is a higher incidence of minority holdings and joint ventures being used by Japanese manufacturers. In Hong Kong, both the U.S. and Japanese manufacturers have a strong preference for majority or full ownership. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research assignment has investigated the overall nature of the investment climate in the People's Republic of China (PRC).The investment climate was analysed using a Political Risk Analysis (PRA) framework, whereby the PRC was scrutinised closely for its most defining socioeconomic features and, especially, for its most salient political risk factors. Based on this, the assignment evaluated this climate with specific relevance to the investment plans of the South African company SAB-Miller. Since its accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO)in 2001, the PRC has intensified its economic restructuring process, a necessary and inevitable process, in order to comply with the terms of the WTOframework. This period of adjustment has heightened the anxiety over the strength of the Chinese economy, and the repercussions and/or opportunities for the multinational SAB-Miller.To remedy this uncertainty, this assignment has drawn up an in-depth qualitative scenario, in order to forecast the major trends of the PRC's short-term socio-political future. The main findings of the assignment indicate that a 'high-road' scenario is the most likely to occur in the PRC in the short-term. Clearly, this favourable forecast 1S dependent on the continuation of the current economic and socio-political restructuring process in the PRC. With regards to the main macro-political risks factors, the assignment draws attention to several critical areas of concern. Firstly, the lack of legitimatisation from the 'bottom-up' is a worrying feature, especially in light of the growing economic disparities between citizens and between provinces. Secondly, the financial and governmental sectors need a thorough restructuring, according to WTO criteria. Thirdly, the fragmentation of the market inside the PRe undermines the potential of the PRC government to diffuse the benefits of economic growth and to absorb the downsides of globalisation. Micro-specific risk factors for the company SAB-Miller are focussed predominantly on the speed and the depth of the implementation of the guidelines of the WTO. Especially with regards to the lowering of intra-provincial trade barriers and the efficacy of the distribution networks. Lastly, SAB-Miller should eliminate any risk factors, which may originate from inside the company's behaviour, such as the effects of its adopted labour policies. Lastly, it should maintain a clear level of transparency in their associations with governmental institutions. Throughout the assignment, these risk factors will be investigated and related to the overall political risk climate and utilised to draw conclusions concerning the potential of the investment plans of SAB-Miller. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie werkstuk het die beleggingsklimaat van die Volksrepubliek China (VRC) ondersoek. Die beleggingssklimaat is ontleed deur gebruik te maak van 'n model vir Politieke Risiko Analise (PRA), waarby die VRC sorgvuldig onderwerp is aan 'n ondersoek van sy mees kenmerkende sosio-ekonomiese faktore en van die belangrikste risiko faktore. Hierop gebaseer, het die werkstuk ook die beleggingsklimaat ontleed met spesifieke betrekking tot die beleggingsplanne van die Suid Afrikaanse maatskappy SAB-Miller. Sedert toetreding tot die Wêreld Handelsorganisasie (WHO) in 2001, het die VRC sy transformasie proses versnel ten einde te voldoen aan die WHO se toelatingskriteria. Hierdie tydperk van aanpassing het kommer gewek oor die Chinese ekonomie asook oor die gevolge daarvan vir die maatskappy SABMiller. Om hierdie onsekerheid aan te spreek het die werkstuk 'n kwalitatiewe scenario voorgestel, ten einde die hoofpunte van die VRC se sosio-ekonomiese kort-termyn toekoms vooruit te skat. Die gevolgtrekking van hierdie werkstuk toon aan dat 'n 'high-road' scenario die waarskynlikste is gedurende die kort termyn. Dis ook duidelik dat die gunstige vooruitskattings afhanklik is van die voortsetting van die huidige sosioekonomiese transformasie proses van die VRC. Met betrekking tot die vernaamste makro-politieke risiko faktore het die werkstuk aandag gegee aan verskeie kommerwekkende aspekte. Eerstens, die gebrek aan elektorale regmatigheid van die 'grond-af, waarskynlik in die lig van die toenemende ekonomisiese verskille tussen burgers asook tussen provinsies. Tweedens, moet die finansiële- en staatssektore grondig herstruktureer word volgens die WHO riglyne. Derdens, ondermyn die fragmentasie van die mark van binne China die mag van die VRCse regering om die voordele van die ekonomiese groei gelykmatig te versprei, asook om die nadele van Globalisasie te absorbeer. Mikro-spesifieke risiko faktore vir die SAB-Miller maatskappy het hoofsaaklik gefokus op die spoed en die diepgang van die implementering van die WHO riglyne. In besonder met betrekking tot die hoë interprovinsiale handelsbelemmerings en die optimale effektiwiteit van die verspreidingskakels. Laatstens, moet SAB-Miller enige risiko faktore elimineer wat as gevolg van die maatskappy se eie gedrag kan onstaan, byvoorbeeld die maatskappy se arbeidsvoorwaardes. SAB-Miller moet ook 'n duidelike aanspreeklikheidsfunksie daarstel, in hulle betrekkinge met Chinese staatsinstellings. Deur die hele werkstuk word hierdie risiko faktore ondersoek en in verband gebring met die algemene politieke risiko klimaat, en word ook gebruik om gevolgtrekkinge te maak aangaande die potensiaal van SAB-Millerse beleggingsplanne.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The research assignment examines pertinent factors affecting the political, economic and social landscape of the development of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Domestic conditions within the PRC are influencing its foreign policy behaviour in the international arena. The PRC's internal environment will thus determine the extent of its external presence. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die werkstuk bestudeer die relevante faktore wat die politieke, ekonomiese en sosiale landskap ten opsigte van die Republiek van China (PRC) se holistiese ontwikkeling beïnvloed. Omstandighede binne die Republiek beïnvloed die land se buitelandse beleidsgedrag in die internasionale arena. Dit sal dus regverdig wees om te sê dat binnelandse faktore 'n beslissende rol speel ten opsigte van hoe die land homself binne die globale arena hanteer.

Thesis (MA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study explores the impact China's accession to the WTO and growing economic ascendancy in the multilateral trading system is going to have on the developing world. The central problem addressed is whether China's accession and growing stature is going to be a competitive threat to the developing world or will China emerge as a collaborator to the developing world and assist in redressing the inequalities of the system. Three themes emerge and are dealt with in this study. The first addresses China as a developing nation itself and its overall position in relation to the rest of the developing world. Then China's growing economic progress and its internal developments are looked at. Finally China is evaluated as collaborator or competitor to the developing world. A descriptive and analytical approach is employed in this study. The complexity and the interplay between the multiple levels of analysis emerge in this study. In order to best address the role China is to play, China has to be set in the greater multilateral context, the regional context and then evaluated in conjunction with the internal dynamics which are unfolding. These perspectives together are of the utmost importance in determining the future role China is to play in relation to the developing world. Whether it will emerge as a collaborator or a competitor to the already marginalised developing sector of the trading system. The regional level of analysis is playing an increasingly important role in the current system as the regional units are proving more effective trading units than sole national units. Thus this study pays particular attention to the region in a case study focusing on South East Asia in relation to China. The multilateral level of analysis addressing China's role in relation to the developing world and the answer to the question of whether China is going to be collaborator or competitor to the developing world is of particular importance in the current global context. The developing world is increasingly calling for the inequalities prevalent in the system to be addressed and China's position in the current context and in relation to this current issue will play an important role. Despite the optimism surrounding China and its possible future the internal dynamics and context cannot be underestimated or neglected. The unfolding domestic developments that take place at the hands of the current leadership will playa deciding role in China's future. As China is in a transition and attempting a mix between a market-based economic system encapsulated in a socialist system it is a precarious situation that needs the careful attention of the leadership to best manage China's internal and external developments. The inclusion thus of China's internal dynamics, therefore cannot be neglected and have been included in this study. Current trends regarding China emerge and it is possible to make assumptions on the basis of these trends as to what China's future role entails. This then is looked at as to the impact these trends are going to have on the various contexts that China finds itself in and most importantly the impact that it is likely to have on the developing world. The possibilities of different impacts being played out in different time frames emerge as the most likely to manifest themselves. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie ondersoek die impak wat China se aansluiting by die WHO, en sy groeiende ekonomiese mag in die multilaterale handelsisteem, op die ontwikkelende wêreld het. Die sentrale vraag wat hier aangespreek word, is of China se aansluiting by die WHO 'n bedreiging inhou vir ontwikkelende ekonomieë en of dié land, alternatiewelik, sy posisie kan gebruik om laasgenoemde ekonomieë by te staan in hul stryd teen die ongelykhede van die huidige sisteem. Drie hooftemas is hier ter sprake. Die eerste handeloor China se status as ontwikkelende land, en sy algemene posisie vis a vis ander ontwikkelende lande. Die tweede, fokus op China se ekonomiese en interne ontwikkelings, terwyl die derde tema meer lig werp op die vraag of China beskou moet word as bondgenoot of mededinger van die ontwikkelende wêreld. 'n Deskriptiewe en analitiese benadering is VIr die doeleindes van die studie aangewend. Die kompleksiteit en interaksie tussen verskillende vlakke van analise kom in die studie na vore. Om China se rol in konteks te plaas, is dit nodig om daarna te kyk vanuit 'n streeksperspektief en dit in verband te bring met interne ontwikkelinge binne dié land. Hierdie perspektiewe, tesame, is kardinaal vir 'n beter begrip van China se toekomstige rol met betrekking to ander ontwikkelende lande. 'n Streeksanalise raak toenemend belangrik in die lig van die feit dat regionale eenhede algaande meer effektief funksioneer as individuele nasionale state. In hierdie studie word daar verallig gewerp op Suid-oos Asië, waarvan China deel uitmaak. Op die multi-laterale vlak van analise is dit ook van belang om vas te stel hoe China saloptree teenoor ontwikkelende lande na sy toetredede tot die WHO. Die ontwikkelende wêreld pleit vir die regstel van strukturele ongelykhede, en China kan moontlik hier 'n deurslaggewende rol speel. Ten spyte van hoë verwagtinge aangaande China se toekomstige rol, kan die land se interne konteks en dinamika nie buite rekening gelaat word nie. Ontwikkelinge wat tans binne China plaasvind sal 'n defnitiewe impak op die land se toekoms hê. China se unieke mengsel van 'n markgerigte ekonomie, wat funksioneer binne 'n breër sosialistiese opset, sal deeglike beplanning rakende die landse binne en buitelandse sake van sy leiers verg. Om hierdie rede het die studie ook klem gelê op die interne politiek dinamiek van China. Spesifieke tendense rakende China is besig om te ontwikkel, en dit raak algaande makliker om sekere afleidings aangaande die land se toekomstige rol binne die internasionale konteks te maak. Hierdie tendense is veral van belang wanneer daar gekyk word na China se toekomstige verhoudinge met die ontwikkelende wêreld. Dit wil dus voorkom asof uiteenlopende resultate hulself gedurende verskillende tydsgrepe sal manifesteer.

China's policy toward the Korean peninsula has shifted from a one-Korea policy to a de facto two-Korea policy. Beijing's constant policy is recognition of Pyongyang as the sole legitimate regime on the peninsula. What Beijing has changed is to acknowledge the existence of the Seoul regime and to inaugurate Sino-South Korean unofficial ties. The main thrust of this research is to examine China's relations with South Korea and North Korea during the period between 1984 and 1989 and to identify the national interests which made Beijing leaders shift their Korea policy. The hypothesis of this study is: China's economic priority is the determining factor and changes in the international environment in East Asia are a contributing factor which made China incrementally shift policy toward the Korean peninsula. The decision to adopt the policy of "revitalizing the economy internally and implementing the open door policy externally" in the Third Plenum of the Eleventh Chinese Communist Party Central Committee in 1978 resulted in revolutionary changes in Chinese foreign policy. These changes resulted from new foreign policy orientations, namely, pragmatism, the growing magnitude of economic elements, open door policy, and entente diplomacy. These new orientations were able to be applied to the Korean case when changes in the Northeast Asian international milieu provided chances in the early 1980s. These changes were the growing positive Sino-Soviet relations, the emergence of South Korea as an economic power, the improvement of Soviet-North Korean relations, and the failure of North Korean diplomacy. Through empirical studies of Chinese foreign behavior and official media, the hypothesis is proven valid. In the early 1980s, China evidently changed its Korean policy priority from strategic interests to political interests with a desire for a peaceful international environment. The growing unofficial Beijing-Seoul contacts show that China desires to pursue its economic interests in South Korea but under the premise of not jeopardizing its relations with North Korea. This line will not change until North Korea is willing to accept cross-recognition.

This thesis examines China's state-owned enterprise reform and financial reform in the last two decades. I characterize the progress of China's state-owned enterprises reform in two areas: privatization of small SOEs and mass layoffs. I argue that privatization rests on the political economy of China. I also discuss the evolution of the financial system and come up with some strategies of financial liberalization in China. Result from this study suggests that if the necessary reforms of the financial sector and state enterprises are effectively carried out, inevitably this will lead to a significantly slower rate of growth for a period of time. However, these reforms will provide the basis for a period of sustained growth in the long run.

Following the trends of the Globalization, the principles of Nondiscrimination, Transparency and Rule of Law, are all becoming the core principles of globalized norms of economic regulation, which have always known to be associated with GATT and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Following the accession of the People's Republic of China to the WTO, it is well understood that the requirements for the conformity of laws and regulations inside and outside of China to WTO are high, especially in terms of the conformity of China's regulatory system of economic regulations to WTO's Principles of national treatment, transparency, and rule of law. This paper will examine the conformity of WTO's Principles of National Treatment, Transparency, and Rule of Law with China's regulatory system of economic regulation, especially with a focus on the compliance of globalized norms of economic regulation with China's local norms and local values, and the legal and political culture. At the same time, this paper aims to discover the institutional approaches that protect and facilitate judicial independence. Attention is also paid to the influences of the institutions system on impartiality and accountability of judicial practice through facilitating judicial independence.

Following the trends of the Globalization, the principles of Nondiscrimination, Transparency and Rule of Law, are all becoming the core principles of globalized norms of economic regulation, which have always known to be associated with GATT and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Following the accession of the People's Republic of China to the WTO, it is well understood that the requirements for the conformity of laws and regulations inside and outside of China to WTO are high, especially in terms of the conformity of China's regulatory system of economic regulations to WTO's Principles of national treatment, transparency, and rule of law. This paper will examine the conformity of WTO's Principles of National Treatment, Transparency, and Rule of Law with China's regulatory system of economic regulation, especially with a focus on the compliance of globalized norms of economic regulation with China's local norms and local values, and the legal and political culture. At the same time, this paper aims to discover the institutional approaches that protect and facilitate judicial independence. Attention is also paid to the influences of the institutions system on impartiality and accountability of judicial practice through facilitating judicial independence. / Law, Peter A. Allard School of / Graduate