La presente investigación tiene como objetivo central identificar cuáles son los principales determinantes que influyen en la brecha de género en la inclusión financiera del Perú durante 2016. En tal sentido, se utiliza la Encuesta Nacional de Demanda de Servicios Financieros y Nivel de Cultura Financiera (ENIF, 2016), en la cual se encuestó a 6,303 individuos seleccionados al azar, formando una muestra representativa de todo el Perú, y se realiza la estimación de modelos de elección discreta (logit y probit). Además, se calculan los impactos marginales de las variables socioeconómicas sobre la posesión de cuentas de ahorro y tarjetas de crédito tanto para varones como mujeres. Los resultados muestran que el nivel educativo es la variable que genera un mayor aumento en la probabilidad de acceder al sistema financiero aunque no de manera muy diferenciada entre géneros; mientras que la posesión de activos, relación de parentesco, residencia y estado civil generan impactos menores en el género femenino. / The main objective of this research is to identify the main determinants that influence the gender gap in the financial inclusion of Peru during 2016. In this sense, the National Survey of Demand for Financial Services and Level of Financial Culture (ENIF, 2016) is used, in which 6,303 randomly selected individuals were surveyed, forming a representative sample of Peru. The estimation of discrete choice models (logit and probit) is made. In addition, the marginal impacts of socioeconomic variables on the possession of savings accounts and credit cards for both men and women are calculated. The results show that the educational level is the variable that generates a greater increase in the probability of accessing the financial system although not in a very differentiated way between genders; while the possession of assets, kinship relationship, residence and marital status generate minor impacts on the female gender. / Trabajo de investigación

This thesis studies the interaction between new and used durable goods without physical depreciation. In product categories such as CDs/DVDs and video games, the competition from used goods markets has been viewed as a serious problem by producers. These products physically depreciate negligibly, but owners' consumption values could depreciate quickly due to satiation. Consequently, used goods that are almost identical to new goods may become available immediately after a new product release. However, the existence of used goods markets also provides consumers with a selling opportunity. If consumers are forward-looking and account for the future resale value of a product in their buying decision, used goods markets could increase the sales of new goods. Thus, whether used good markets are harmful or beneficial to new-good producers is an empirical question. To tackle this question, I extend the previous literature in three ways. First, I assemble a new data set from the Japanese video game market. This unique data set includes not only the sales and prices of new and used goods, but also the resale value of used copies, the quantity of used copies retailers purchased from consumers, and the inventory level of used copies at retailers. Second, I develop a structural model of forward-looking consumers that incorporates (i) new and used goods buying decisions, (ii) used goods selling decisions, (iii) consumer expectations about future prices of new and used goods as well as resale values of used goods, and (iv) the depreciation of both owners' and potential buyers' consumption values. Third, I develop a new Bayesian estimation method to estimate my model. In particular, my method can alleviate the computational burden of estimating non-stationary discrete choice dynamic programming models with continuous state variables that evolve stochastically over time. The estimation results suggest that consumers are forward-looking in the Japanese video game market and the substitutability between new and used video games is quite low. Using the estimates, I quantify the impact of eliminating the used video game market on new-game revenues. I find that the elimination of used video game market could reduce the revenue for a new game.

This thesis studies the interaction between new and used durable goods without physical depreciation. In product categories such as CDs/DVDs and video games, the competition from used goods markets has been viewed as a serious problem by producers. These products physically depreciate negligibly, but owners' consumption values could depreciate quickly due to satiation. Consequently, used goods that are almost identical to new goods may become available immediately after a new product release. However, the existence of used goods markets also provides consumers with a selling opportunity. If consumers are forward-looking and account for the future resale value of a product in their buying decision, used goods markets could increase the sales of new goods. Thus, whether used good markets are harmful or beneficial to new-good producers is an empirical question. To tackle this question, I extend the previous literature in three ways. First, I assemble a new data set from the Japanese video game market. This unique data set includes not only the sales and prices of new and used goods, but also the resale value of used copies, the quantity of used copies retailers purchased from consumers, and the inventory level of used copies at retailers. Second, I develop a structural model of forward-looking consumers that incorporates (i) new and used goods buying decisions, (ii) used goods selling decisions, (iii) consumer expectations about future prices of new and used goods as well as resale values of used goods, and (iv) the depreciation of both owners' and potential buyers' consumption values. Third, I develop a new Bayesian estimation method to estimate my model. In particular, my method can alleviate the computational burden of estimating non-stationary discrete choice dynamic programming models with continuous state variables that evolve stochastically over time. The estimation results suggest that consumers are forward-looking in the Japanese video game market and the substitutability between new and used video games is quite low. Using the estimates, I quantify the impact of eliminating the used video game market on new-game revenues. I find that the elimination of used video game market could reduce the revenue for a new game.

La imagen corporativa se constituye como un activo intangible fuente de ventajas competitivas que debe ser correctamente gestionado para extraerle todo su potencial. Partiendo de una revisión de literatura sobre imagen e identidad, la Tesis profundiza en el carácter multidimensional de la imagen y en las variables que influyen en la misma. Para ello se plantean diversas hipótesis referidas a los determinantes de la elección de empresa con mejor imagen global, desarrollando al respecto un modelo de elección discreta cuyos datos se toman de una investigación de mercados centrada en el mercado de la telefonía móvil. Como resultado, se obtiene el importante peso de la dimensión comercial a la hora de valorar a una compañía como la de mejor valoración global, así como del conocimiento y la familiaridad. Por otra parte, la comunicación publicitaria e interpersonal tiene un efecto más significativo en el caso de las empresas menos notorias.

<p>This dissertation explores how consumers learn from repeated experiences with a product offering. It develops a new Bayesian consumer learning model, the unstable learning model. This model expands on existing models that explore learning when quality is stable, by considering when quality is changing. Further, the dissertation examines situations in which consumers may act as if quality is changing when it is stable or vice versa. This examination proceeds in two essays.</p><p>The first essay uses two experiments to examine how consumers learn when product quality is stable or changing. By collecting repeated measures of expectation data and experiences, more information enables estimation to discriminate between stable and unstable learning. The key conclusions are that (1) most consumers act as if quality is unstable, even when it is stable, and (2) consumers respond to the environment they face, adjusting their learning in the correct direction. These conclusions have important implications for the formation and value of brand equity.</p><p>Based on the conclusions of this first essay, the second essay develops a choice model of consumer learning when consumers believe quality is changing, even though it is not. A Monte Carlo experiment tests the efficacy of this model versus the standard model. The key conclusion is that both models perform similarly well when the model assumptions match the way consumers actually learn, but with a mismatch the existing model is biased, while the new model continues to perform well. These biases could lead to suboptimal branding decisions.</p> / Dissertation

Dopo l’analisi delle modalità di misurazione del potere di mercato e della competizione tra brand nel contesto di un mercato caratterizzato dalla presenza di prodotti differenziati, viene presentata l’applicazione dei modelli a scelta discreta nel mercato del latte alimentare in Italia. Ho utilizzato dati scanner per analizzare i comportamenti nelle scelte di acquisto dei consumatori e le dinamiche competitive tra i due maggiori brand presenti nel mercato e le marche commerciali. Ho considerato il mercato del latte alimentare suddiviso in due sottocategorie, quella del latte a lunga conservazione (UHT) e quella del latte refrigerato. Ho quindi proceduto alla stima della domanda del latte alimentare utilizzando un nested logit model, appartenente alla categoria dei modelli a scelta discreta. Utilizzando i coefficienti stimati è possibile sia calcolare le elasticità di sostituzione tra i diversi brand e le elasticità dirette, nonché i margini di profitto dei brand presi in analisi considerando differenze nelle strategie di prezzo e nella struttura di mercato. / This work first gives an overview of the measurement of market power and brand competition in a differentiated products market, secondly applies discrete choice models to asses the Italian milk market. I use scanner data to estimate consumer purchasing decisions and competitive relationships between two major industry-level brands and (as a third category) supermarket private labels. I divide all milk sold in Italian market into two distinct classes of products: “UHT” and “Refrigerated” milk. I employ a well-known “discrete choice” nested-logit model to estimate consumer demand. Then, using the estimated coefficients, it is possible to calculate both consumer substitution patterns between products, and the profit-margins of the three major retail-level brands across the different sub-categories of milk under different pricing strategies and market structure.

Στην παρούσα διπλωματική εργασία διερευνήθηκε η επιλογή των πρωτοετών φοιτητών αναφορικά με το τμήμα της πανεπιστημιακής τους εκπαίδευσης στην Ελλάδα. Ειδικότερα, αυτή η επιλογή αξιολογείται μέσω δυο μεταβλητών. Η πρώτη αφορά το αντικείμενο σπουδών με βάση το επιστημονικό περιεχόμενο του προγράμματος σπουδών και η δεύτερη αφορά τις προεξοφλημένες αποδόσεις ανά αντικείμενο σπουδών. Για λόγους εκτίμησης χρησιμοποιήθηκαν δεδομένα για το έτος 2006 από το Ατομικό Δελτίο Φοιτητή-Σπουδαστή της Ελληνικής Στατιστικής Αρχής (Ελ.ΣΤΑΤ) και εφαρμόστηκαν υποδείγματα διακριτής επιλογής με διάταξη (ordered probit) αλλά και χωρίς διάταξη (binary probit). Ως επεξηγηματικές μεταβλητές χρησιμοποιήθηκαν το επίπεδο εκπαίδευσης, το επάγγελμα των γονέων και μια ευρεία δέσμη δημογραφικών μεταβλητών (ηλικία, φύλο, τόπος γέννησης, κ.λπ.). Όπως προέκυψε από τα αποτελέσματα της οικονομετρικής ανάλυσης η επιλογή του πανεπιστημιακού τμήματος (είτε με βάση το αντικείμενο σπουδών είτε με βάση τις προεξοφλημένες αποδόσεις) επηρεάζεται σημαντικά από το οικογενειακό υπόβαθρο (εκπαίδευση, επάγγελμα) του πρωτοετή φοιτητή. Επίσης, διερευνήθηκε η σχέση μεταξύ του οικογενειακού εισοδήματος και της επιλογής πανεπιστημιακού τμήματος με βάση τις μελλοντικές αποδόσεις και βρέθηκε να υπάρχει μια θετική και στατιστικά σημαντική σχέση μεταξύ αυτών των δυο μεταβλητών. Με βάση τα αποτελέσματα της παρούσας εργασίας, η δια-γενεακή κινητικότητα στην Ελλάδα (που σχετίζεται με την επιλογή του πανεπιστημιακού τμήματος από τους πρωτοετείς φοιτητές) αναμένεται να είναι χαμηλή. / In this thesis is investigated the choice of the university major of study of the Greek freshmen. Specifically, this choice of major is assessed through two variables. The first is the object of study based on the scientific content of the curriculum and the second is the discounted returns of education per major of study. For assessment purposes we used data for the year 2006 from the Greek statistic authority (el.stat)and we applied discrete choice models by order (ordered probit) and also without order (binary probit). As explanatory variables are used the educational attainment and occupation of parents as well as a wide range of demographic variables (age,sex,place of birth, etc). As the results of the econometric analysis demonstrate the choice of university department(regardless the type of the discrete choice model we use) is significantly influenced by the family background and their social class. It is also investigated the relationship between family income and choice of university department based on future earnings and is found to be a positive and statistically significant relationship between these two variables. Based on the results of this study the intergenerational mobility in Greece (associated with the major of study the freshmen choose) is expected to be low.

Submitted by Ricardo Barros de Aquino Fonseca (ricardobafonseca@gmail.com) on 2017-06-28T06:01:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Ricardo_Fonseca_Dissertacao.pdf: 1923906 bytes, checksum: 31859d5e2f131b25276d0fc435835757 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2017-06-30T12:38:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Ricardo_Fonseca_Dissertacao.pdf: 1923906 bytes, checksum: 31859d5e2f131b25276d0fc435835757 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-04T18:13:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ricardo_Fonseca_Dissertacao.pdf: 1923906 bytes, checksum: 31859d5e2f131b25276d0fc435835757 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-28 / I test for the existence of moral hazard and adverse selection in the Brazilian health insurance market. I use the positive correlation test, proposed by Chiappori and Salanié (2000), to assess the existence of asymmetric information in this market. I estimate the effect of health plan on treatment usage, controlling for many variables (measured blood pressure, age, smoker, etc.), identifying the effect of the plan. I use this coefficients as plan characteristics and estimate their effects on plan purchase using a simple logit regression. The coefficients from this estimation show the relative importance of anticipated moral hazard of different treatments on health plan choice. I find evidence of asymmetric information in the market for every state, in either the Metropolitan Area or not, and for the country as a whole. When performing the positive correlation test using hospitalizations as the usage variable, where moral hazard is assumed to be controlled, I find this evidence only for young women and for the last age group (59 years or more). I find no evidence of asymmetric information for plans paid through work, as expected. Several treatments are used more by people with plans, even when controlling for adverse selection. The analysis suggests that some of those are relevant for plan purchase.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:00:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 3798.pdf: 2095976 bytes, checksum: b15115384f7a1b3abfa6d6b28d9ed7a0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-10-22 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / In the late years, the number of children who go to school by active modes of transport has decreased significantly. This fact causes several problems both in the area of urban transport (creating traffic congestions and accidents in the school neighborhood during the periods of starting and finishing classes) and in the area of public health (increasing the indices of child obesity). In this context, the objective of this research is to identify which factors influence the mode choice of elementary school children to access the schools. The focus of the research are the public elementary schools, because the geographic area that these schools traditionally serve (neighborhoods) permits that the trips be made by non motorized modes, for a great fraction of the students. The case study was developed in the city of São Carlos, SP with students that attend Municipal Elementary Schools. The survey was carried with the students´ parents by means of questionnaires about the children s personal characteristics, as well as their perception of the route from the residence to the school. The data showed that several factors influence the mode choice for the children trip to school, like the perception of safety and security in the neighborhood, the automobile availability in the residence, the parents habits and culture in relation to the motorized modes of transport and the distance for the residence to the school (the factor that proved to have the strongest impact in the parents decision). The discrete choice models were chosen for the estimation of the modal choice because they are largely used in transportation studies. Among the models that were tested, the multinomial logit was the most adequate. The calibrated model showed satisfactory and significant results, demonstrating that the chosen approach is adequate to the analysis of the mode choice for the trips of children to school. / Nos últimos anos, o número de crianças que vão por modos ativos para a escola vem diminuindo significativamente. Este fato causa problemas tanto na área de transporte urbano, (gerando congestionamentos e acidentes na região das escolas nos horários de entrada e saída) como na área de saúde pública (aumentando os índices de obesidade infantil). Neste contexto, esta pesquisa visa identificar quais os fatores que influenciam na opção de modo de transporte para acesso das crianças à escola. O foco da pesquisa são as escolas de ensino público fundamental porque a área geográfica que estas escolas tradicionalmente servem (bairros) permite que as viagens se dêem por modos não motorizados, para uma grande parcela dos alunos. O estudo de caso foi realizado na cidade de São Carlos, SP, junto aos alunos de Escolas Municipais de Ensino Básico (EMEBs). A coleta de dados foi realizada junto aos pais dos alunos através de questionários sobre características pessoais das crianças, bem como a percepção do ambiente a ser percorrido no caminho casa-escola. Os dados demonstraram que vários fatores influenciam a escolha do modo de transporte das crianças para a escola, como a percepção de seguridade e segurança do bairro, a disponibilidade de automóveis nas residências, os hábitos e a cultura dos pais em relação ao uso de modos motorizados e a distância casa-escola (fator de maior impacto na decisão dos pais). Para estimativa do modelo de opção modal, optou-se pelo uso de modelos de escolha discreta, devido ao fato de este modelo ser largamente utilizado para estudos na área de transportes. Dentre os modelos testados, o modelo logit multinomial se mostrou mais adequado. O modelo calibrado apresentou resultados satisfatórios e significativos, demonstrando que a abordagem utilizada é adequada à análise da escolha modal para viagens de crianças para a escola.

Em junho de 2013, o reajuste de R$ 0,20 na tarifa de ônibus gerou uma série de manifestações populares no país que acabaram fazendo alguns governos, como o da cidade de São Paulo, voltarem atrás e arcarem com essa diferença com as empresas de ônibus. Visto isso, o prefeito de São Paulo, Fernando Haddad, propôs uma política de municipalização de um tributo imposto sobre a gasolina, a CIDE, para financiar o transporte público urbano. Nesse contexto, foi encomendada uma pesquisa a Fundação Getúlio Vargas para responder a magnitude do impacto desse subsídio cruzado entre usuários do transporte privado e coletivo. Esse trabalho utiliza o resultado encontrado por essa pesquisa para responder qual o efeito sobre o tráfego da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo utilizando dados da Pesquisa de Origem e Destino de 2007. Os resultados encontrados mostram que a política de subsídio cruzado proporciona um baixo deslocamento no fluxo dos modos de transporte. Além disso, a análise de bem estar da política mostra que os mais favorecidos são os indivíduos de baixa renda. A estimação é feita com base em dois modelos de escolha discreta (Multinomial e Mixed Logit), separada por dois motivos de viagem: trabalho e estudo. E, as simulações de deslocamento de demanda utilizam dois valores de tributos, R$ 0,10 e R$ 0,50. / In June 2013, the increase of 0.20 BRL in bus fare has emerged a series of popular demonstrations in the country that ended up making some governments, such as the city of São Paulo, backtrack and pay out this difference with the buses company. So, the mayor of São Paulo, Fernando Haddad, proposed a policy of decentralization of a tax imposed on gasoline, CIDE, to finance urban public transport. In this context, a report was commissioned to Fundação Getúlio Vargas to respond the magnitude of the impact of cross-subsidy between users of private and collective transport. This work uses the results found in this report to answer the effect on traffic in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo using data from the Source and Destination Survey of 2007. Results show that the cross-subsidy policy provides a low offset in the flow modes of transport. Moreover, the analysis of welfare policy shows that the most favored are the low-income individuals. The estimation is based on two discrete choice models (Multinomial and Mixed Logit), separate for two reasons of trips: work and study. And the simulations of displacement demand use two values of taxes, 0.10 and 0.50 BRL.