Climate change poses one of the biggest challenges that most countries have to face over the coming decades. The transformations in our global weather patterns are expected to bring some very adverse effects for most of the island nations that comprise the Caribbean region. These nations have been continuously identified as one of the territorial groups that are most vulnerable to climate change, while the region barely contributes to the main triggers of these changes. Caribbean island nations have many elements that hinder their individual and regional development. Climate change will aggravate those conditions while bringing new challenges to these territories, particularly in the capital cities, as these urban areas serve are the main economic, social, political and cultural centres of these nations. A good understanding of the vulnerabilities of these cities will become a critical factor for developing good adaptation measures for their respective nations. Planning can prove useful for implementing climate change adaptation strategies, particularly for cities. This research provides three main contributions to the literature on climate change and on urban planning studies. First, it expands the discussion upon the linkages between disaster risk reduction experiences and climate change adaptation practices. Second, it highlights the relevance of capital cities for evaluating climate change impacts and adaptation actions for small island territories. The third contribution is the creation of a planning tool to assess climate change vulnerabilities of Caribbean cities. These three elements will further expand the existing knowledge base related to climate change adaptation and urban planning disciplines, particularly pertaining to the Caribbean region. Caribbean cities will greatly benefit from a planning perspective that can guide their development processes in the face of climate impacts. By means of vulnerability assessments it is possible to facilitate the analysis of climate change impacts and outcomes on vulnerable areas and planners can contribute to this aspect. A planning support tool was created to aid in the development of a vulnerability assessment for small island cities in the region - the Caribbean Climate change Urban Vulnerability Index (CCUVI). Using the CCUVI, a vulnerability assessment methodology was developed, using the city of San Juan (Puerto Rico) as a case study. The results of the vulnerability assessment helped identify five different areas within the case study city that are prone to be more affected by climate change impacts. The assessment also analysed how the vulnerability conditions in these areas and in the city changed through time, exploring two distinct scenario storylines for San Juan towards 2050. A series of normative and operational recommendations emerged from the assessment process that will help planners and policymakers engage in adaptation actions to reduce the climate vulnerabilities of Caribbean small island capital cities.

This thesis is an investigation of the impacts of extreme weather on the livelihoods of households in the hillside communities of the Jesus de Otoro Valley, Honduras. Extreme weather events can have profound negative impacts on livelihoods that rely heavily on natural resources, such as agriculture. The reliance of hillside households on agriculture and related activities for survival makes this population critically vulnerable to the negative impacts of extreme weather. This study found that the livelihood resources of this group that are most affected by extreme weather events are cash income and human health. Strong rains, drought and extreme temperatures have several direct impacts on household income, not only for hillside farmers themselves, but also for the merchants whose businesses have been developed to serve them. Extreme weather events also have multiple direct impacts on human health. Increased incidence of bacterial infections and communicable diseases are serious effects of strong rains, drought and temperature extremes. This study found a clear positive feedback link between decreased income and deterioration of health. Climate change studies predict that extreme weather events will become more frequent and severe. If these predictions are correct, hillside households will suffer potentially devastating impacts on their livelihoods. The coping strategies currently employed by hillside households in the face of extreme weather events are unlikely to provide the resources needed for households to survive under more severe and unstable weather conditions. / SSHRC, CIDA, Students for Development

Previous research on climate change and conflict has focused on how climate change affects conflict, however, the field has failed to reach a consensus on the relationship. With climate change being such a large concept, the focus has shifted towards the concept of climate change vulnerability. Despite attempts to connect climate change vulnerability to conflict, there is a lack of research examining the reversed relationship, that is how conflict affects climate change vulnerability. Motivated by this gap, the research question of this thesis is: How does prolonged armed conflict affect the country’s climate change vulnerability? My main claim is that prolonged conflict will negatively affect the country’s climate change vulnerability trough a decrease in investments and public spending. This thesis is tested trough a qualitative comparative case study on the countries Libya and Algeria. The findings are in line with the hypothesis showing that the case with prolonged conflict did experience a higher climate change vulnerability.

The Tropical Andes continue to suffer the most radical climatic changes in South America. These changes generate alterations in its ecosystems, and therefore affect local populations, whose livelihoods are dependent on its diversity and functioning. This is particularly true for rural populations who rely on agriculture as their primary source of food and income. Although the biophysical pathways through which climate change can affect these populations have received extensive scientific attention, it is urgent to study the socioeconomic pathways, at scales that allow the development of vulnerability reduction strategies at the local level. The present study is part of the INCA project (International Network on Climate Change), which is a research network that analyses the local strategies of farmers under a changing climate in the Tropical Andes (Lindner et al. 2017). To contribute to this goal this study investigates climate-related vulnerability and climate change adaptation at local scales. First, the current vulnerability of farm household systems (FHSs) to climate-related hazards is assessed. This is done by looking at determinants that are internal (adaptive capital) and external (climate-related hazards) to the FHSs. Based on the recurrence of internal factors, FHSs are categorized into different groups. These groups are validated by observing the effects of climatic events that are specific to each group. The result of the analysis are different typologies or archetypes of climate-related vulnerability. The analysis adopts an archetype approach and develops methods based on multivariate analysis techniques. Second, the study analyzes the impacts of climate change, expressed as an increase in temperature conditions, at local levels. For this purpose, a multi-agent systems model of land-use/cover change is used, specifically the software package MPMAS. The model is the first attempt at a detailed representation of agents-environment interactions in the framework of climate change in the Tropical Andes. The simulation outcomes report on the adaptation of different farm household groups and the effects of climate change on the agricultural landscape. The research was conducted in selected communities in the Central Andes of Peru. The active integration of empirical data with secondary literature in the application of the research methods provided a suitable way to analyze the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of FHSs in the Tropical Andes in a comprehensive manner. Moreover, the use of participatory assessment techniques to obtain empirical data provided an additional perspective for the analysis and improved the understanding of the problem, contributing to deriving analytical generalizations that could hardly be obtained using only quantitative methods. The research results for the study area identify five archetypes of farm household’s vulnerability to climate-related hazards. For each archetype, distinct vulnerability-creating mechanisms are observed. For example, most vulnerable farm households have a very limited amount of adaptive capital: low levels of off-farm employment, few farm animals, small agricultural area, mostly rainfed, and low use of agro-ecological zones. In addition, they occupy predominantly the higher, and therefore less-productive, agro-ecological zones of the watershed. The analysis also makes it possible to derive spatial and thematic priorities for vulnerability reduction that are specific to each archetype. The modeling approach applied proved to be suitable for simulating the impacts of climate change at the local level. In particular, regarding the explicit simulation of FHSs, the productive landscape, and the way in which they interrelate and change in response to an increase in temperature conditions. The incorporation of heterogeneity and dynamics in the modeled population, the use of optimization techniques to simulate decision making, and the multi-periodicity of the model produce non-linearity, uncertainty and trajectory dependence. In addition, the use of vulnerability archetypes is a novel and robust way of creating a heterogeneous population for the initialization of the model. Simulation results show dynamic changes in the agricultural landscape as temperature increases. The area allocated to corn and olluco expands, while potato and oat areas diminish. Investment in tree plantations is largely unaffected. The effects of rising temperatures on farm households’ welfare show a general persistence of poverty in the study area. However, the effect on FHSs income is predominantly positive, allowing some to improve their food poverty position. The FHSs that manage to benefit from an increase in temperature have, on average, larger agricultural and forest areas, a greater amount of savings in the form of animals, hire more salaried labor and practice more mechanized agriculture than the FHSs whose situation did not improve. The results show that, in addition to the effects of climate change on crop productivity, there are other factors influencing land use decisions that deserve more attention in the analysis of vulnerability and climate change impacts. A better understanding of heterogeneity in climate vulnerability and climate impacts is an important step in meeting this demand.

Der Klimawandel ist auf regionaler Ebene nachweisbar. Zudem gehen Forschungsergebnisse davon aus, dass sich Ereignisse wie Überflutung und Starkregen regional differenziert zukünftig noch intensivieren werden. Bereits heute belegen Schadensmeldungen in der Region Dresden einen sich aus den klimatischen Veränderungen ergebenden Handlungsbedarf in Form von Anpassungsmaßnahmen auf Gebäudeebene. Deshalb sind die Hauptziele der vorliegenden Arbeit das Aufzeigen der Verletzbarkeit von Wohngebäuden und die Erarbeitung von Vorschlägen für entsprechende Ertüchtigungen. Als Datenbasis dient zum einen die baukonstruktive Analyse typischer Beispielgebäude der Region Dresden, welche gleichzeitig die wichtigsten Baualtersstufen abbilden. Dadurch können die in der Region hauptsächlich anzutreffenden baukonstruktiven Durchformungen, Nutzungen und Charakteristiken von Wohngebäuden abgedeckt werden. Dies dient als Grundlage zur Beurteilung der Verletzbarkeit und Anpassungsfähigkeit der wichtigsten Baukonstruktionen gegenüber den Einwirkungen Überflutung und Starkregen. Zum anderen dient als Datenbasis die Dokumentation, Analyse und Interpretation abgelaufener Schadensereignisse in Bezug auf Schadensbilder und Schadensmechanismen an Gebäuden und Baukonstruktionen. Innerhalb der Verletzbarkeitsanalyse gegenüber Überflutung führt die Beschreibung von Schadenstypen, Schadensbildern und Schadensmechanismen in die Erläuterung einer Methodik zur Abschätzung von Hochwasserschäden an Gebäuden. Diese wird in der Arbeit dazu verwendet, die spezifische Verletzbarkeit der einzelnen Beispielgebäude gegenüber der Einwirkung Überflutung mit Hilfe von Wasserstand-Schaden-Beziehungen zu ermitteln. Darauf aufbauend können nun Bereiche, welche aufgrund ihrer hohen Verletzbarkeit angepasst werden sollten, eingegrenzt werden. In der Folge werden beispielhaft bautechnisch mögliche Anpassungsmaßnahmen vorgestellt, am baukonstruktiven Detail gezeigt und ihre positiven Auswirkungen auf die Wasserstand-Schaden-Beziehungen beziehungsweise auf die Verringerung der Verletzbarkeit der Beispielgebäude dargestellt.

Förekomsten av vattenrelaterade problem som extrem nederbörd, översvämningar, torka och vattenbrist kommer att öka i urbana områden till följd av de globala klimatförändringarna. Sponge city-konceptet är ett urbant dagvattenhanteringssystem som lanserades i Kina och syftar till att förbättra vattenhanteringen i städer genom att återställa stadens kapacitet att absorbera, infiltrera, lagra och rena vatten. Den här studien syftade till att undersöka om sponge city-konceptet hade kunnat implementeras i Malmö genom att besvara frågeställningen ” Vilka möjligheter respektive hinder finns det för Malmö att implementera sponge city-konceptet?”. Genom en systematisk litteraturstudie och innehållsanalys i kombination med det teoretiska ramverket som baserades på konceptet sårbarhet för klimatförändringar visade resultatet på att det både finns en del möjligheter men också hinder. Det huvudsakliga hindret som identifierades är att en stor del av marken i Malmö består av täta moränleror vilket utgör ett hinder för de infiltrationsåtgärder som ingår i sponge city-konceptet. Några möjligheter som identifierades är att sponge city-konceptet kan minska känsligheten för skada som uppstår i förhållande till exponeringsnivån, samt att Malmös anpassningskapacitet är relativt hög. På grund av att den här studien enbart undersökte specifika fysiska/miljömässiga aspekter inom sponge city-konceptet krävs däremot fler studier som tar hänsyn till fler aspekter om en implementering av konceptet skulle bli aktuell. / The occurrence of water related problems such as extreme precipitation, floods, drought and water scarcity will increase in urban areas as a result of global climate change. The sponge city-concept is an urban stormwater system launched in China and aims to improve the water management in cities by restoring the city’s capacity to absorb, infiltrate, store and purify water. This study aimed to investigate if the sponge city-concept could be implemented in Malmö by answering the question “What possibilities and obstacles exist for Malmö to implement the sponge city-concept?”. Through a systematic literature review and content analysis in combination with the theoretical framework, which was based on the concept climate change vulnerability, the results showed that there are some possibilities but also obstacles. The main obstacle that was identified is that the ground in Malmö largely consists of dense moraines which forms an obstacle for the infiltration measures that are included in the sponge city-concept. Some possibilities that were identified is that the sponge city-concept can decrease the sensitivity to harm that occurs in relation to the exposure level but also that Malmö’s adaptation capacity is relatively high. However, because this study only investigated specific physical/environmental aspects within the sponge city-concept, more studies that consider more aspects are required if an implementation of the concept would become prevailing.

Tesis por compendio / [ES] La agricultura a pequeña escala en América Central, región donde se esperan fuertes cambios en las temperaturas y patrones de lluvias, sostiene el empleo y la seguridad alimentaria de las familias rurales. La adaptación al cambio climático es, por ende, altamente prioritaria. Esta investigación analiza la vulnerabilidad al cambio climático y la capacidad adaptativa de los medios de vida agrícolas a pequeña escala en la región en dos niveles. El primer análisis usa información pública de municipios de cuatro países, mientras el segundo se basa en procesos participativos en cinco microcuencas de la vertiente del Pacífico. Esta investigación incluye también una evaluación de productos de información agroclimática para gestionar los impactos del cambio climático en la producción agrícola y la seguridad alimentaria en Guatemala. El primer análisis muestra, en primer lugar, que los municipios que están en zonas de frontera agrícola o propensas a la sequía tienden a tener menor capacidad adaptativa, en contraste con la capacidad adaptativa más alta de los que están cerca a zonas urbanas y rutas de comercio. En segundo lugar, muestra que los grupos de municipios con menos satisfacción de necesidades básicas tendieron también a tener menor desempeño en los indicadores de acceso a la innovación y su puesta en práctica. Por último, muestra que los grupos de municipios que más incentivos agrícolas han recibido no tienen necesariamente una mayor capacidad adaptativa. Los resultados sugieren que los proyectos y programas de adaptación al cambio climático en la región deben considerarse un espectro de estrategias, y que la metodología propuesta puede apoyar el establecimiento de prioridades geográficas y la identificación de estas estrategias. El segundo análisis muestra diferencias fundamentales entre diferentes medios de vida agrícolas, en especial en su capacidad adaptativa. Los capitales humano y social mostraron amplias diferencias entre medios de vida que tienen acceso a la tierra y el agua, y los que dependen del arriendo de la tierra y de la venta de mano de obra. Aunque en todos los sitios hay algún nivel de incentivos y asistencia técnica, estas ayudas no necesariamente responden a las necesidades de adaptación de las familias agricultoras. Las medidas de adaptación implementadas y propuestas incluyen medidas incrementales y transformacionales, y existe conciencia en las familias agricultoras de la importancia de fortalecer los capitales no físicos para la viabilidad y sostenibilidad de las medidas de adaptación, y no solo el capital natural y construido. Estos resultados confirman que los programas de adaptación deben considerar un espectro amplio de estrategias y las necesidades a nivel local para una mejor inversión de recursos. La evaluación de productos de información agroclimática muestra progresos en la gestión de la variabilidad del clima en Guatemala, pero también que los productos destinados a apoyar decisiones para gestión de la agricultura y la seguridad alimentaria a nivel local requieren cambios en las prácticas institucionales de compartir y producir información más útil y oportuna. Esta tesis intenta poner en valor diferentes fuentes de información y conocimiento para la adaptación al cambio climático, en una región donde es frecuente que se atribuya la falta de decisiones oportunas y objetivas a su ausencia y baja calidad. Las propuestas metodológicas tratan de identificar opciones para el mejor uso de los recursos disponibles y esfuerzos para apoyar la adaptación de la agricultura a pequeña escala en América Central. / [CA] L'agricultura a petita escala a Amèrica Central, una regió on s'esperen canvis bruscos de les temperatures i dels patrons de pluges, sosté l'ocupació i la seguretat alimentària de les famílies rurals. L'adaptació al canvi climàtic és, per tant, altament prioritària. Aquesta investigació analitza la vulnerabilitat front al canvi climàtic i la capacitat adaptativa dels mitjans de vida agrícoles a petita escala de la regió en dos nivells. La primera anàlisi usa informació pública de municipis de quatre països, mentre que la segona es basa en processos participatius en cinc microconques del vessant del Pacífic. Així mateix, aquesta investigació inclou una avaluació de productes d'informació agroclimàtica per tal de gestionar els impactes del canvi climàtic sobre la producció agrícola i la seguretat alimentària a Guatemala. La primera anàlisi mostra, en primer lloc, que els municipis de les zones de frontera agrícola o propenses a la sequera tendeixen a tindre menor capacitat adaptativa, tot contrastant amb la capacitat adaptativa més elevada d'aquells municipis que són a prop de zones urbanes i de rutes comercials. En segon lloc, trobem que els grups de municipis amb menys satisfacció de necessitats bàsiques van tendir també a obtenir resultats inferiors en els indicadors d'accés a la innovació i la seua aplicació. Per últim, observem que els grups de municipis que han rebut més incentius agrícoles no tenen necessàriament una major capacitat adaptativa. Els resultats suggereixen que els projectes i els programes d'adaptació al canvi climàtic a la regió han de considerar tot un espectre d'estratègies, i que la metodologia proposada pot donar suport a l'establiment de prioritats geogràfiques i la identificació d'aquestes estratègies. La segona anàlisi mostra diferències fonamentals entre diferents mitjans de vida agrícoles, sobretot pel que fa a la seua capacitat adaptativa. Els capitals humà i social van mostrar àmplies diferències, d'una banda, entre els mitjans de vida que tenen accés a la terra i a l'aigua i, de l'altra, aquells que depenen de l'arrendament de la terra i de la venda de mà d'obra. Malgrat que a tot arreu existeix algun nivell d'incentius i assistència tècnica, aquestes ajudes no responen necessàriament a les necessitats d'adaptació de les famílies agrícoles. Les mesures d'adaptació implementades i proposades inclouen mesures incrementals i transformacionals, i les famílies agrícoles són conscients de la importància d'enfortir els capitals no físics de cara a la viabilitat i la sostenibilitat de les mesures d'adaptació, i no sols el capital natural i construït. Aquests resultats confirmen que els programes d'adaptació han de considerar un espectre ampli d'estratègies d'adaptació i les necessitats en l'àmbit local, per tal d'aconseguir una millor inversió dels recursos. L'avaluació de productes d'informació agroclimàtica mostra progressos en la gestió de la variabilitat del clima a Guatemala, però també que els productes destinats a donar suport a decisions per a la gestió de l'agricultura i la seguretat alimentària en l'àmbit local requereixen canvis en les pràctiques institucionals a l'hora de compartir i de transferir informació més útil i oportuna. Aquesta tesi intenta posar en valor diferents fonts d'informació i de coneixement que faciliten l'adaptació al canvi climàtic, en una regió on és freqüent que s'atribuïsca la falta de decisions oportunes i objectives a la seua absència o baixa qualitat de les mateixes. Les propostes tracten d'identificar opcions que permeten millorar l'ús dels recursos disponibles i dels esforços per tal de donar suport a l'adaptació de l'agricultura a petita escala a Amèrica Central. / [EN] Smallholder agriculture in Central America, a region where marked changes in temperature and rainfall patterns are expected, sustains employment and food security for rural households. Adaptation to climate change is therefore a high priority. This research analyses the vulnerability to climate change and the adaptive capacity of small-scale agricultural livelihoods in the region at two levels. The first analysis uses public information from municipalities in four countries, while the second is based on participatory processes in five micro-watersheds on the Pacific slope. This research also includes the evaluation of agro-climatic information products that are intended to support the management of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food security in Guatemala. The first analysis shows, first, that municipalities that are in agricultural frontier or drought-prone areas tend to have lower adaptive capacity, in contrast to those that are close to urban areas and trade routes. Secondly, it shows that groups of municipalities with less satisfaction of basic needs also tended to perform less well on indicators of access to and implementation of innovation. Finally, it shows that groups of municipalities that have received more state agricultural incentives do not necessarily have higher adaptive capacity. The results suggest that climate change adaptation programs and projects in the region should consider a spectrum of adaptation strategies, and that the proposed methodology could support the geographic prioritisation and identification of these strategies. The second analysis showed fundamental differences between different agricultural livelihoods, especially in their adaptive capacity. Human and social capitals showed wide differences between livelihoods that have access to land and water, and those that rely on renting land and selling labour. While there was some level of incentives and technical assistance in all sites, there were also differences in access to this support, which do not necessarily respond to the adaptation needs of farming families. The adaptation measures implemented and proposed include incremental and transformational measures, and there is awareness among farming families of the importance of strengthening non-physical capital for the viability and sustainability of adaptation measures, and not only natural and built capital. These results confirm that adaptation programmes should consider a broad spectrum of adaptation strategies and needs at the local level for better investment of resources. The evaluation of agroclimatic information products shows progress in managing climate variability in Guatemala, but also that products aimed at supporting decisions for agriculture and food security management at the local level require changes in institutional practices to share and produce more useful information. This thesis attempts to highlight different sources of information and knowledge for climate change adaptation in a region where the lack of timely and objective decisions is often attributed to their absence or low quality. The methodological proposals seek to identify options for the best use of available resources and efforts to support adaptation in smallholder agriculture in Central America. / Bouroncle Seoane, CM. (2023). Vulnerabilidad y capacidad adaptativa de la agricultura a pequeña escala en América Central: brechas actuales y elementos para la gestión de información de sequías y otros fenómenos del cambio y variabilidad climática [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/199547 / Compendio