The last few years have seen one of the most severe droughts in recent times in the southern African region, and news headlines are increasingly full of warnings about heavy storms, fires and floods. There is no doubt that extreme hydro-meteorological events, and their multiple and potentially disastrous impacts, are at the forefront of the public consciousness at the present time and are one of the key concerns regarding the impacts of climate change in the region. While the links between extreme climate events, disaster risk reduction (DRR - see Box 1) and climate change adaptation (CCA - see Box 2) are recognised in the South African Climate Change White Paper, this is not the case for the whole region. Furthermore, even if there is national recognition of the need to synergise these two spheres of endeavour, this does not always trickle down to effective policy, planning and implementation at the local level.

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Johannesburg, 2016. / Global methane (CH4) emissions are divided mostly into three sources; biogenic, thermogenic and pyrogenic. The sources can be anthropogenic or natural in origin. Anthropogenic sources include emissions associated with agriculture (rice paddies and ruminants), waste (landfill and waste water), biomass burning and fossil fuels. Landfills have been implicated as one of the largest anthropogenic sources of atmospheric CH4 globally and as a significant contributor to global warming. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report anthropogenic sources account for 304 – 368 TgCH4/year and methanogenesis in landfills and waste contributes between 67 and 90 TgCH4/year to this amount (between 22 and 24% of emissions). / GR2016

In Lesotho, agriculture is the dominant activity and involves crop and livestock production, range management and forestry activities. The current climatic variability in the country has caused decline in food production as result of increased dry spells, frequency of droughts and erratic rainfall. These climatic events are expected to have a significant impact on the livelihoods of the smallholder farmers. In combatting the harmful effects of climate change, smallholder farmers in Lesotho have employed various adaptation strategies based on their local knowledge and limited means. While these strategies may not be optimal they obviously constitute the basis for potentially effective improved technologies which can be developed and communicated through an efficient extension system, hence the need to precisely identify them and understand the factors that affect their choice. The main objective of this study was therefore, to identify the adaptation strategies and investigate the factors influencing smallholder farmers’ choice of those adaptation strategies. The study made use of multi-stage stratified sampling technique to select 160 respondents across four agro-ecological zones (lowlands, highlands, foothills and Senqu River Valley) in Leribe and Mohales’Hoek districts of Lesotho. Primary data for the study were collected using semi - structured questionnaire assisted with interview schedules administered on the respondents. Data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics and the multinomial logistics regression model. The results show that there are more males than females, majority of the respondents’ attained primary education, and older people dominate the smallholder farming system. The adaptation strategies used in MNL model were soil and water management, crop management and livestock management. The results further revealed that soil and water management strategies were the most adopted climate change strategies amongst smallholder farmers. It is understood that marital status, age and gender, income, land tenure, crop grown, extension services, and agro-ecological zones are the determinant factors influencing the choice of the adaptation strategies. This study concludes by recommending that smallholder farmers should be sensitised about climate change and both government and non-government organisations working on climate change related issues should direct their attention to rural communities to ensure effective response to climate change.

Spatial planning plays a significant role in enhancing climate change adaptation especially within an urban area. The alignment of spatial planning with climate change adaptation opens an opportunity to improve resilience in areas of high vulnerability and manage the unavoidable. This mini-dissertation examines township spatial planning and climate change adaptation in identifying potentialities for an integrated approach. Therefore, Mdantsane case study as one of the largest townships in South Africa was explored as a unique landscape with reminiscent of apartheid to improve the people’s climate change adaptation under urban poverty, lack of basic facilities and other environmental challenges. In keeping with a case study design, mixed methods were adopted in data collection and analysis making use of GIS and remote sensing techniques alongside pretested open and close-ended questionnaires. The study reveals that townships are extremely susceptible to the impacts of climate change due to their built-up and natural environment set up as well as the existing interrelations. Based on this study major findings, Mdantsane built up cover in year 1996 was 269.496 km2 followed by vegetation area of about 142.272 km2; the area covered by water body was 31.554 km2 while other land surface features cover about 317.277 km2. It was revealed that there was a drastic change in vegetation cover between 1996 and 2016, where built up cover area increased to 375.552 km2 and vegetation cover is 119.277 km2 while water body and other land features cover was about 29.889 and 235.881 km2 respectively. Furthermore, 66 percent of the respondents agreed that agriculture is the predominant land use activity been carried out in the study area, respondents at 74.4 percent affirmed that solid waste and sanitation problems are environmental issues which can lead to climate change over time as a result of the burning of garbage. It is worthy to note that 70 percent of the entire respondents have not participated in any spatial planning process in the past. Thus, comprehensive integration of spatial planning is essential for townships proofing, health, wellbeing and resilience. To this end, the five P’s model (Policy, Public participation, Programme implementation, Political will and Programme monitoring) integration was proposed to seek strategic intervention in sustaining adaptation of local residents to climate change in the future with specific focus to reduce climate and environmental risks in Mdantsane Township.

Coastal disasters have been increasing in intensity and frequency around the world causing loss of life and millions of Rands’ worth of damage to infrastructure. Coastal communities are growing as more people are drawn to urban areas. These people depend on the services the coastal ecosystem provide but through degradation and land use change the supply of services is reduced. The ability of these communities and landscapes to bounce back from disturbance has been severely hampered. As a result communities are looking for ways in which they can protect their lives and their assets and become more resilient. Through development planning structures such as coastal foredunes, that offer a buffering capacity against storm surges, can be used to strengthen the resilience of coastal communities. The type of defences used in communities would be dependent on the knowledge of the decision makers. This study explores the discourses and practices that are present in development processes regarding ecological infrastructure (in its buffering capacity for risk reduction) as an option for adaptation to global environmental change in the coastal areas of Eden District. Qualitative data collection and analysis techniques were used. In-depth interviews were used to collect data, which was transformed into frequency data using content analysis. Descriptive statistics was then applied to the coded frequencies. The interpretation of the data was presented alongside the frequency data, via the descriptive statistics and quotations from interviews. It was determined that role players in development processes are aware of the complexities surrounding coastal social-ecological systems and understand the role foredunes play as ecological infrastructure within this system. Those who lack knowledge are aware of their knowledge gaps. Participants believe the study area is at risk due to human impacts and overall, participants felt that there is a general lack of awareness with regard to issues affecting our coastline, compounded by the absence of an enabling environment brought about by a lack of finances and time.

The responsiveness of South African fauna to climate change events is poorly documented and not routinely incorporated into regional conservation planning exercises. The lack of detailed distribution data for appreciable numbers of taxa demands a modeling solution. We develop a climate envelope model to predict potential distribution range changes. The model can be used to interpolate the distributions of poorly sampled taxa as well as predict responses to a changing climate. It is predicted that species from the more arid western parts of South Africa will be subject to severe range contraction and range shifts whereas the species from the more mesic eastern parts will experience range contraction with limited range shift. Species that could act as climate change indicator taxa are identified based on their predicted extreme range change responses to climate change. Red-data and vulnerable species were more likely to display range change than less threatened species. Without mitigatory action, conservation areas are likely to lose species. The likelihood of successful range shifts will be affected by the nature of novel communities, habitat suitability and the degree of land transformation encountered. Given the extent of the predicted spatial responses, conservation planners can no longer afford to ignore future climate impacts on species distribution patterns. Disease risk profiles are also expected to change with climate; currently, susceptible forestry plantations exist in areas which may be invaded by an economically important pathogen. Resistant clones should be planted in these future high-risk areas. A decrease in precipitation is an important feature of a future climate. This decrease is expected to impact on the agricultural sector by reducing total employment as producers switch to a more extensive production pattern. The total decline in welfare, therefore, will fall disproportionately on the poor. Climate change presents a significant treat to the South African biodiversity estate, and our ability to manage this transition in the face of changing and competing land uses. Adaptation and mitigation options do exist but they are hampered by a lack of definitive analyses, and ultimately, political will to prioritise the threat of climate change. / Thesis (PhD(Zoology))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Zoology and Entomology / unrestricted

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Science, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science by Coursework and Research Report, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, March 2015. / Climate change is considered a dominant factor that controls species distribution at a large spatial scale. Changes in climate conditions are expected to have a significant impact on the distribution of maize in South Africa in the coming years. Determining the potential changes in maize distributions is important, as it is a staple crop for the majority of South Africans and contributes significantly to the country’s economy. The specific objectives of the study were to 1) determine potential distribution of maize under current and predicted climate scenarios using Maxent, 2) determine how the environmental factors change between current and predicted climatic habitat distributions and their influence on maize distributions in South Africa, and 3) statistically compare present and future distributions of maize to see how current and predicted climate habitats differed. Distribution models for high and low maize producing areas were built in Maxent using Bioclim variables from Worldclim. Predicted changes in distributions were then projected using predicted 2050 climate. Two emissions scenarios, RCP2.6 (low emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission), from HadGEM2ES model were used to predict the climate suitability of maize. Model evaluations showed that models had adequate predictability for maize under different climate scenarios (AUC values ≥ 0.7). Precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18), precipitation of wettest quarter (Bio16), annual precipitation (Bio12), and maximum temperature of warmest month (Bio5) variables contributed the most to model predictions. The models showed a decrease in suitable areas for maize growth in the Highveld region. Present range area for maize as climate changes from low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios showed a contraction. Predictive models suggest that the most affected areas under future scenarios is the western part of the Highveld region, which is currently characterized by relatively low mean annual precipitation. However, there was an increase in suitability in the Eastern Cape province. Statistical comparisons of current and predicted climatic niches for maize showed that there was little difference, this indicates that climate suitability of maize will not change significantly due to climate change, but that the geographic ranges where these climatic habitats are found will change dramatically. The capacity to develop strategies that will enable maize to adapt to climate change will be vital for South Africa’s agro-ecosystem and food security. The results from this study highlight the possible imposition of climate change on maize distribution and could be useful for future work to minimize the potential negative impacts of climate change on food production. Keywords: Climate change, food security, maize, Maxent, niche quantification, South Africa.

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. November 2017, Johannesburg. / The main aim of this PhD research is to use accurate, relatively long-temperature data sets (spanning 1851-2016) available in South Africa, to establish a more precise understanding of temporal temperature variability over this region. This is achieved through the use of robust methodology (i.e. data quality control and homogenization procedures, using a reference series) to produce high quality data sets for temperature trend analysis. Data quality and homogenization of data sets are conducted using RClimDex, ProClim and AnClim software. Long-term temperature trends are determined using a nonparametric statistic (i.e., Mann Kendall test). The core objectives are to provide a homogeneous dataset for the Western Cape region in South Africa and establish long-term (97 years) annual and seasonal instrumental temperature trends for this region. The second objective is to extend past work by examining temperature trends for KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) over a considerably longer period, with a specific focus on contrasting coastal and adjacent higher lying interior regions. The last objective is to assess the extent and timing of El Niño/La Niña impacts on maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) over selected South African stations for the period 1884-2016, and to establish any possible direct change in such temperature responses to ENSO over time. Long-term temperature trends for the Western Cape Province indicate statistically significant increasing annual temperature trends for adjusted (homogenized) Tmax and Tmin data over the period 1916-2013, with the exception of an insignificant decreasing Tmax trend at Cape St Blaize. For the common period (1937-2001), a statistically significant increasing trend (0.13°C/decade) is recorded for all stations in Western Cape Province, with a 0.04°C/decade stronger warming signal than before homogenization was applied. The seasonal trends also support significant increasing trends, with the exception of Tmax trends for summer (-0.03°C/decade) and autumn (0°C/decade) at Kirstenbosch. For KZN, cooler conditions are noted for the second half of the 19th century (i.e. 1851, 1858, 1860-1864) compared to more recent times. For the period 1930-2015, annual Tmin records significant warming at all stations, with the rates of warming (°C/decade) over the interior being double that for the coast. Tmin warming trends are 1.31 (summer), 2.75 (autumn), 3.33 (winter) and 1.25 (spring) times faster over the interior compared to the coast. Thus, higher lying interior regions are warming considerably faster than adjacent coastal areas mainly due to Tmin warming trends. The impact of El Niño and La Niña events on Tmax and Tmin over South Africa is investigated using composite and Fourier series analysis (1884-2016). For 17 stations spread across South Africa, it is concluded that strong coherent relationships exist between El Niño/La Niña events and Tmax/Tmin. Contingency tables were constructed for each station during the austral summer season (December, January and February) and analysed using the Chi-squared statistic. The most notable finding is that El Niño events have had a stronger warming effect over many regions in South Africa after the late 1970s, the most prominent regions being the northern interior and southeast coast, where associated Tmax record an average of 0.41°C and 0.45°C higher values over the period 1979-2016 compared to the earlier period (1940-1978) respectively. The Chi-squared statistic results indicate that ENSO phases exert a stronger influence over the interior of South Africa compared to that over the coast. Keywords: homogeneity, temperature, trend analysis, Mann Kendall, historical climate, Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, ENSO. / LG2018

A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of requirements for the degree of Master of Science. Johannesburg, August 2015. / Climate change literature is growing rapidly, with increasing literature being produced on the relationship between climate change and tourism. Globally, tourism is very dependent on the climate and the impacts of climate change may alter tourism flow and demand. Developing countries are likely to be the most affected by climate change and its effects on tourism which is worrying as this sector is a huge contributor to their economy. South African tourism relies heavily on its environment to attract tourists and give a satisfactory travel experience; climate change is a threat to the environment and thus a major concern for South Africa. This thesis investigates the perceptions of climate change threats within the tourism sector by exploring how perceptions may influence behaviour and how the tourism sector will respond to a changing climate. Research was carried out in two coastal towns, St Francis Bay and Cape St Francis in the Eastern Cape Province. These towns are dependent on their tourism sectors to drive their economies. These towns are dependent on their local tourism sector to drive their economy. The results indicate that while both the tourists and tourist accommodation establishments are aware of the threat of climate change and are concerned about its impacts, there is very little adaptation being implemented. While the level of concern varies among the accommodation establishments, there appears to be no perceived significant relationship between the threat of sea level rise and their distance from the coastline. Tourism Climate Index calculations for the two towns suggest that the climate is worsening in terms of tourist comfort, and project that the towns will become less attractive for tourism based on their climate. A Digital Elevation Model developed for the towns however shows that the projected sea level rise for 2050 and 2100 will result in parts of the beaches and a protective artificial spit being washed away. The lack of climate change planning to deal with these impacts is directly linked to their perception. The tourist accommodation establishments do not believe they need to take major action and rather feel the government should respond to climate change. Overall, the results indicate that there is a need for further research into bottom-up approaches to climate change, to better plan and implement successful climate change mitigation and adaptation which can be done through educating individuals and businesses within the tourism sector.

Lack of knowledge about climate change poses a greater risk to human development in general. This study emerges from the premise that agriculture, and more specifically smallholder farmers, are the most affected by climate variability due to the type of assets they hold. Among other factors, climate change can directly and adversely impact the ability of smallholder farmers to sustain their livelihoods. Taking into consideration spatial differences across Ngqushwa Local Municipality, smallholder farmers in different areas have to understand the constraints they face that emanate from climate change. The study aimed to explore the knowledge that smallholder farmers in Ngqushwa local municipality have on climate change, strategies they utilise to cope and minimise the detrimental effects of climate change. The study also focused on climate change information sources namely, meteorological and Indigenous Knowledge (IK) that smallholder farmers have at their disposal for coping and adaptation to climate change. Furthermore, the study analyses comprehensiveness and usefulness of information that the resource-poor farmers possess. The findings of this study show that smallholder farmers in Ngqushwa local municipality access climate change information through televisions, newspapers and listening to the radio. Their knowledge of the behaviour of birds, moon, wind, and insects is also an important source of forecasting weather patterns. Recommendations from this study include the following: enhancing and widening the sources of climate change information, education encompassing the nature of climate change, networking of smallholder farmers, linking meteorological and indigenous knowledge and supplementing natural water supply.