This thesis examines the effects of price and exchange rate volatilities on the volume of trade corn, soybean, wheat and rice. Empirical results indicate that price volatility and exchange rate volatilities do not have effects on Canada’s export of wheat and soybean, and Canada’s import of corn and rice. This thesis also examined the effects of exchange rate and commodity price volatilities on developed countries’ trade and developing countries’ trade separately. Results show that trade between developing countries is more sensitive to exchange rate and commodity price volatilities than trade between developed countries. / Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy and Competitiveness Research Network (CATPRN)

This thesis examines the effects of price and exchange rate volatilities on the volume of trade corn, soybean, wheat and rice. Empirical results indicate that price volatility and exchange rate volatilities do not have effects on Canada’s export of wheat and soybean, and Canada’s import of corn and rice. This thesis also examined the effects of exchange rate and commodity price volatilities on developed countries’ trade and developing countries’ trade separately. Results show that trade between developing countries is more sensitive to exchange rate and commodity price volatilities than trade between developed countries. / Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy and Competitiveness Research Network (CATPRN)

This thesis examines the effects of price and exchange rate volatilities on the volume of trade corn, soybean, wheat and rice. Empirical results indicate that price volatility and exchange rate volatilities do not have effects on Canada’s export of wheat and soybean, and Canada’s import of corn and rice. This thesis also examined the effects of exchange rate and commodity price volatilities on developed countries’ trade and developing countries’ trade separately. Results show that trade between developing countries is more sensitive to exchange rate and commodity price volatilities than trade between developed countries. / Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy and Competitiveness Research Network (CATPRN)

This master´s thesis deals with trade with crude oil and its impact on the world economy. Everyone, who wants to start to trade with crude oil, should find out basic terminology and information about crude oil that is characterized in the first chapter. The hunt for oil started many years ago, therefore the history is also mentioned in this master´s thesis. The second chapter focuses on the world trade with crude oil. Territorial structure and trade flows are described in this part of the master´s thesis. Nevertheless, the crude oil also has an impact on the world economy and economies of single states. The third chapter analyses states, where the inhabitants live beyond means of people from other countries but these states are so depended on crude oil that if this trade stopped, these countries would go bankrupt. However, there are also exceptions. Even though, there are states that have huge sources of crude oil, they still have to deal with financial problems. The forth chapter characterizes the trade with crude oil of the Czech Republic because it is a net importer of crude oil and the last chapter focuses on new trends in crude oil such as shale oil and trading at a crude oil market.

本研究欲探討國家商品貿易特性在匯率報酬評價中扮演的角色，決定匯率報酬的因素非常多，包含利率、市場波動、國際貿易及國家政治等非常廣泛的因素，而國家商品貿易特性也會是影響匯率報酬評價的可能因素之一。本研究以「進口比率」(Import Ratios) 衡量國家的商品貿易特性，也以該數值建構投資組合。研究結果發現，去除商品貿易特性特殊之國家後，進口比例(Import Ratio)越高之投資組合，其遠期外匯貼水也偏高，且外匯超額報酬也隨之遞增。 在Ready, Roussanov, and Ward(2013)論文中認為，國家的商品貿易特性是造成不同國家利率高低差異的原因，所以該作者認為國家商品貿易特性極有可能是利差交易背後的原因。然而，本研究的Fama-Macbeth 兩步驟橫斷面迴歸實證結果發現，國家的商品貿易特性確實是造成國家利率差異的因素之一，但利差交易背後的風險背後的因素，雖然包含國家商品貿易因素，但仍包含其他因素，且商品貿易因子(IMX)無法取代利差交易因子(HML)在外匯超額報酬評價模型中的角色。 此外，本研究亦嘗試在Lustig所提出之市場因子(RX)和利差交易因子(HML)的兩因子模型中，再額外加入商品貿易因子(IMX)，構成匯率評價的三因子模型，但研究結果發現不論是在遠期外匯貼水投資組合或商品貿易投資組合中，三因子模型都沒有優於兩因子模型。 / There are many factors in determinant of exchange rate returns, such as interest rates, market volatility, international trade and politics. The purpose of this research is considering commodity trade in the pricing model of excess return of currency market. This research use “Import Ratios” to measure the characteristic of different countries’ commodity trade. We use import ratios to construct “Import Ratio Sort Portfolio”. After removing the countries which commodity trade characteristics are special, we could see when import ratios is higher, the forward discount and exchange rate return are also higher in import ratio sort portfolio. Ready, Roussanov, and Ward(2013) thought the commodity trade is the reason that cause interest rate differences between countries. In this research, the result of Fama-Macbeth two-step regression show that commodity trade is one of the reasons that cause interest rate differences. It means that there are other risks behind carry trade. In the pricing model of excess return of currency market, HML factor can’t be replaced by IMX factor. We also try to construct three-factor model, which consider excess return, carry trade, and commodity trade simultaneously. But the result shows that three-factor model can not have better explanatory power than Lustig, Roussanov, and Verdelhan(2011)’s two-factor model.

The thesis concentrates on measuring the benefits and losses of implementing regional trade agreements. In particular, the thesis analyses trade flow changes, foreign direct investment inflow changes, industrial total factor productivity changes and specific commodity trade flow changes in Australia and China. Four empirical studies are undertaken. Firstly, the thesis introduces the gravity model to estimate the effect of regional trade agreements on trade flow changes, focusing on thirty-nine countries and areas from seven regional trade agreements during 1980-2004. The results show that there are trade creation and trade diversion effects for various memberships. The results further show that China experiences an export creation effect for its APEC membership while Australia has an import diversion effect for its CER membership. When trade between Australia and China is considered, Australia's CER membership impedes its trade with China. However, both Australia and China benefit from attending APEC jointly to enlarge their bilateral trade. Secondly, a modified gravity model is undertaken to test the impact of regional trade agreements on foreign direct investment inflows to Australia and China. It uses the same regional trade agreements to that of the trade flow study for the period of 1980 to 2004 for Australia and 1985 to 2004 for China. The results show that CER members tend to strengthen their bilateral foreign direct investment cooperation after the implementation of CER trade and investment liberalization. Thirdly, the impact of regional trade agreements is examined on industrial total factor productivity growth. The findings show that industries with comparative trading advantages in both Australia and China tend to improve their total factor productivity upon liberalizing trade both bilaterally and multilaterally. However, industries with comparative disadvantages need more protection against severe foreign competition. It uses data from 1974-75 to 2004-05 for the Australian market sector analysis, from 1968-69 to 1990-2000 for the Australian manufacturing industry analysis, and from 1987 to 2003 for the Chinese industry analysis. Finally, the thesis investigates the impact of regional trade agreements on bilateral commodity trade between Australia and China from 1979 to 2004. A similar gravity model to that of the trade flow study is used, introducing an additional GDP per capita variable to capture the effect of increasing consumers' income on their consumption of particular goods and products type based on product and production characteristics. Both the one-digit and some detailed four-digit commodity classifications described in the Standard International Trade Classification are considered. The results show that participation in regional trade agreements is an important factor that affects Australia's major commodity trade with China. The major contribution of this thesis is the investigation of issues on trade flows and foreign direct investment specifically in Australia and China, together with the studies of the effect of regional trade agreements on industrial total factor productivity improvement and specific commodity trade changes. Due to the increasing pursuit of bilateral and regional economic cooperation in Australia and China, the results of this thesis are of particular importance to both countries in their foreign trade and economic strategies.

<p><strong>Syfte: </strong>Syftet med denna undersökning är att studera råvaruprisets samt aktiemarknadens prestationer i form av procentuell avkastning under olika konjunkturlägen från år 1969 och fram till 2009. Samt att studera råvarumarknadens reaktion vid börsfall. Marknaderna ställs dessutom i relation till varandra. Detta görs genom tre delsyften: Hur presterar råvaror i relation till aktiemarknaden i hög- respektive lågkonjunktur? Ökar råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden i samma konjunkturlägen? Hur har råvarumarknaden till skillnad från aktiemarknaden reagerat vid större börsfall?</p><p><strong>Metod: </strong>Undersökningen är kvantitativ, deduktiv samt utgår från primärdata ansamlad via vedertagna källor och databaser. För att uppfylla syftet innefattar denna undersökning två olika metoder. Metod 1behandlar avkastning i olika konjunkturlägen och Metod 2 består av en eventstudie av råvaruprisernas reaktioner vid tidigare börsfall.</p><p><strong>Teori: </strong>Undersökningen bygger delvis på hypotesen om effektiva marknader och innefattar tidigare forskning om faktorer som påverkar råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden.</p><p><strong>Empiri: </strong>Mellan åren 1969 – 2009 konstaterades fyra olika konjunkturlägen med 5 högkonjunkturslägen, 6 lågkonjunkturslägen, 3 övergångsår mot högkonjunktur, 5 övergångsår mot lågkonjunktur. Aktiemarknadens totala avkastning för hela perioden var 973,7 %, majs hade 250,9 %, vete 300 %, olja 169 %, guld 495,8 % och koppar 555,2 %. Sammanslaget för samtliga råvaror och börsfall var det endast olja som fick ett svagt positivt CAAR, resterande fick ett negativt CAAR där aktiemarknaden hade -1,02762, olja 0,01325, guld -0,05511, koppar -0,10297, vete -0,1812 samt majs - 0,1859.</p><p><strong>Analys/Slutsats</strong></p><ul><li>I regel har både råvarornas och aktiemarknadens avkastning varit bättre under högkonjunktur än lågkonjunktur, däremot har guld en negativ korrelation mot aktiemarknaden vilket resulterar i att råvarans pris minskar när aktiemarknaden går bra och ökar när aktiemarknaden går dåligt. </li><li>Det finns inget statistiskt säkerställt samband utifrån denna undersökning som tyder på att råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden följer varandra genom konjunkturlägen.</li><li>Råvarornas CAAR är nästintill obefintliga i en antingen negativ eller positiv riktning. Därmed är reaktionerna på börsfallen nästan obefintliga och med ett <em>r</em> på – 0,171 och en tillförlitlighetsnivå på 20-30 % går det inte att statistiskt säkerställa ett samband mellan reaktionerna hos råvarorna och börsfallet.</li></ul> / <p><strong>Purpose: </strong>The aim with this survey is to examine and compare the commodity price and the stock market performance in terms of percentage yield during different business cycles from 1969 to 2009. And then examine the reaction on the commodity price in timer of a major downturn. This will be done by answering a three part purpose: How do commodities and the stock market perform during different business cycles? Do both commodities and the stock market show positive yield during the same business cycle? How do commodities react to a major downturn in the stock market?</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The study is quantitative, deductive, and is based on raw data accumulated from conventional sources and databases. To fulfill the purpose this study includes two different methods. Method 1examine the yield in different business situations and Method 2 consists of an event study of the commodity stock market reactions to previous downturns in the stock market.</p><p><strong>Theoretical: </strong>This study is partly based on the hypothesis of efficient markets and includes previous research on factors affecting commodity prices and stock markets.</p><p><strong>Empirical: </strong>Between the years 1969 - 2009 four different cyclical positions was found, 5 boom positions, 6 recessions’ positions, 3 transition years towards an economic boom, 5 transition years towards recession. The stock market's total returns for the entire period was 973.7%, 250.9% had corn, wheat 300%, 169% oil, gold and copper 495.8% 555.2%. Aggregated for all commodities and stock market, oil was the only object that had a slightly positive CAAR, the others had a negative CAAR where the stock market had, -1.02762, oil 0.01325, gold -0.05511, copper -0.10297, wheat -0 , 1812, and corn - 0.1859.</p><p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p><ul><li>In general, both commodities and stock market returns have been better than during the boom then times of recession, however, gold has a negative correlation to equity markets, which results in a decreases commodity price as the stock market is doing well and increasing when the stock market goes bad. </li><li>There is no statistically significant correlation from this study that suggests that commodity prices and stock markets follow each other through the business cycle.</li><li>Commodities CAAR is virtually nonexistent in either a positive or negative direction. Thus, the reactions to the stock market is almost nonexistent, and with an <em>r</em> of - 0.171 and a confidence level of 20-30% the link between the reactions of commodities and stock markets cannot be statistically ensure. </li></ul>

Syfte: Syftet med denna undersökning är att studera råvaruprisets samt aktiemarknadens prestationer i form av procentuell avkastning under olika konjunkturlägen från år 1969 och fram till 2009. Samt att studera råvarumarknadens reaktion vid börsfall. Marknaderna ställs dessutom i relation till varandra. Detta görs genom tre delsyften: Hur presterar råvaror i relation till aktiemarknaden i hög- respektive lågkonjunktur? Ökar råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden i samma konjunkturlägen? Hur har råvarumarknaden till skillnad från aktiemarknaden reagerat vid större börsfall? Metod: Undersökningen är kvantitativ, deduktiv samt utgår från primärdata ansamlad via vedertagna källor och databaser. För att uppfylla syftet innefattar denna undersökning två olika metoder. Metod 1behandlar avkastning i olika konjunkturlägen och Metod 2 består av en eventstudie av råvaruprisernas reaktioner vid tidigare börsfall. Teori: Undersökningen bygger delvis på hypotesen om effektiva marknader och innefattar tidigare forskning om faktorer som påverkar råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden. Empiri: Mellan åren 1969 – 2009 konstaterades fyra olika konjunkturlägen med 5 högkonjunkturslägen, 6 lågkonjunkturslägen, 3 övergångsår mot högkonjunktur, 5 övergångsår mot lågkonjunktur. Aktiemarknadens totala avkastning för hela perioden var 973,7 %, majs hade 250,9 %, vete 300 %, olja 169 %, guld 495,8 % och koppar 555,2 %. Sammanslaget för samtliga råvaror och börsfall var det endast olja som fick ett svagt positivt CAAR, resterande fick ett negativt CAAR där aktiemarknaden hade -1,02762, olja 0,01325, guld -0,05511, koppar -0,10297, vete -0,1812 samt majs - 0,1859. Analys/Slutsats I regel har både råvarornas och aktiemarknadens avkastning varit bättre under högkonjunktur än lågkonjunktur, däremot har guld en negativ korrelation mot aktiemarknaden vilket resulterar i att råvarans pris minskar när aktiemarknaden går bra och ökar när aktiemarknaden går dåligt. Det finns inget statistiskt säkerställt samband utifrån denna undersökning som tyder på att råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden följer varandra genom konjunkturlägen. Råvarornas CAAR är nästintill obefintliga i en antingen negativ eller positiv riktning. Därmed är reaktionerna på börsfallen nästan obefintliga och med ett r på – 0,171 och en tillförlitlighetsnivå på 20-30 % går det inte att statistiskt säkerställa ett samband mellan reaktionerna hos råvarorna och börsfallet. / Purpose: The aim with this survey is to examine and compare the commodity price and the stock market performance in terms of percentage yield during different business cycles from 1969 to 2009. And then examine the reaction on the commodity price in timer of a major downturn. This will be done by answering a three part purpose: How do commodities and the stock market perform during different business cycles? Do both commodities and the stock market show positive yield during the same business cycle? How do commodities react to a major downturn in the stock market? Methods: The study is quantitative, deductive, and is based on raw data accumulated from conventional sources and databases. To fulfill the purpose this study includes two different methods. Method 1examine the yield in different business situations and Method 2 consists of an event study of the commodity stock market reactions to previous downturns in the stock market. Theoretical: This study is partly based on the hypothesis of efficient markets and includes previous research on factors affecting commodity prices and stock markets. Empirical: Between the years 1969 - 2009 four different cyclical positions was found, 5 boom positions, 6 recessions’ positions, 3 transition years towards an economic boom, 5 transition years towards recession. The stock market's total returns for the entire period was 973.7%, 250.9% had corn, wheat 300%, 169% oil, gold and copper 495.8% 555.2%. Aggregated for all commodities and stock market, oil was the only object that had a slightly positive CAAR, the others had a negative CAAR where the stock market had, -1.02762, oil 0.01325, gold -0.05511, copper -0.10297, wheat -0 , 1812, and corn - 0.1859. Conclusion In general, both commodities and stock market returns have been better than during the boom then times of recession, however, gold has a negative correlation to equity markets, which results in a decreases commodity price as the stock market is doing well and increasing when the stock market goes bad. There is no statistically significant correlation from this study that suggests that commodity prices and stock markets follow each other through the business cycle. Commodities CAAR is virtually nonexistent in either a positive or negative direction. Thus, the reactions to the stock market is almost nonexistent, and with an r of - 0.171 and a confidence level of 20-30% the link between the reactions of commodities and stock markets cannot be statistically ensure.

This thesis studies the impact of shale gas on commodity and stock markets in the U.S. by employing wavelet approach and conducting a time-frequency analysis of dynamic correlations between natural gas and important representatives of commodity markets: crude oil, coal, corn, wheat, and several indices. It covers the period from 2006 to 2015 and is performed on daily data. Our thesis enlarges existing literature on comovement between natural gas with other energy commodities and stocks using wavelet coherence - a methodology which allows analyzing comovement among assets not only from a time series perspective but also over different frequencies. Financialization of natural gas and its involvement in investment portfolios under changing conditions on the U.S. gas market provide space for examination of gas proper correlation estimates in respect to other financial assets. Our results reveal natural gas comovement behaviour with examined commodities during the Financial Crisis. They show gradual decoupling between gas and crude oil prices in time. To the best of our knowledge we are the first to address natural gas using wavelet coherence in connection to agricultural commodities corn and wheat. These commodities together with natural gas are primary sources for bioethanol production being used in...

In der Zusammenfassung der Tagung werden die behandelten Themen sowie wichtige Sprecher kurz vorgestellt. Themen sind Innovation im Bergbau, Nachhaltigkeit im Bergbau (New Climate Economy), Aufarbeitung von Halden und Tailings und Industrie 4.0 im chilenischen Bergbau sowie technologische Neuerungen. Wesentliche Kooperationsprojekte werden genannt. Das Deutsch-Chilenische Rohstoffforum wurde durch das „Kompetenzzentrum Bergbau und Rohstoffe“ der Deutsch-Chilenischen Industrie- und Handelskammer inhaltlich vorbereitet. / In the summary the topics of the meeting and important speakers are listed and shortly presented. Topics are the efficency of resources, environmental aspects, secondary mining and human resources in the mining industry of Chile. Technological innovations of the mining industry are also in the focus of the meeting. Some projects for cooperation are introduced. The German-Chilean Raw Materials Forum was organized by the „Kompetenzzentrum Bergbau und Rohstoffe“ of the Deutsch-Chilenische Industrie- und Handelskammer.