Onde há luz suficiente ,os estômatos, pequenos poros localizados na superfície das folhas, com abertura regulável, tendem a abrir . Isto permite a absorção de C02 (e, portanto, a fotossíntese) , e a evaporação de água, que não pode, porém, ser excessiva. As plantas conseguem ajustar a sua abertura dos estômatos, otimizando a absorção de C02 e adequando-se, ao mesmo tempo, à disponibilidade de água no ambiente. Recentemente, inúmeras experiências mostraram que, ao contrário do que se supunha, a abertura de um estômato parece depender da interação deste com seus estômatos vizinhos. Sob estresse hídrico, o movimento de abrir e fechar, dos estômatos de uma região da folha, freqüentemente se sincroniza, formando padrões espaço-temporais persistentes. Este trabalho teve como objetivo o estudo da dinâmica desses padrões. Reproduzimos, num primeiro momento deste estudo, um modelo proposto por Haefner e colaboradores, para entender melhor o problema. Este modelo , no entanto, demonstrou ser ineficiente sob vários aspectos, ao contrário do que observam os autores. Novos modelos foram então propostos, com resultaados mais próximos aos observados nos experimentosque apresentam melhor concordância com os experimentos. Em particular, destacamos o Modelo de Veias Aleatórias com Histerese, que utiliza a hipótese da existência de um retardo e uma histerese no mecanismo de abertura e fechamento dos estômatos, com resultados que reproduzem a diversidade de comportamento da dinâmica estomática observada experimentalmente. / When there is enough light, stomata - variable aperture pores distributed on plant´s leaves - tend to open. This mechanism allows the absorption of C02 (and so the reaction of photosynthesis) as well as the evaporation of water. The plant can adjust its stomatal aperture over time, in order to maximize C02 uptake with an water loss compatible with environmental conditions. Recently, many experiments have shown that the aperture of a single stomata depends on its interaction with the neighbors in an emergent complex behavior. Under water stress the opening and closing of stomata aperture often becomes synchronized in spatially extended patches, with a rich dynamical behavior. In this work we have studied this phenomena. We first reproduce a model proposed by Haefner and collaborators, in an attempt to better understand this phenomena. The model, however, has been unable to generate patches or an oscillatory behavior in the steady state, as claimed by th authors. We proposed then new models, that show better agreement with experiments. In a particular, the model called by us Randon Vein Model with Hysteresis was able to reproduce most of the behaviors observed in real leaves, including the formation of patches and an non-regular oscillations in the steady state.

<p>This thesis focuses on the development of ABC methods for statistical modeling in complex dynamic systems. Motivated by real applications in biology, I propose computational strategies for Bayesian inference in contexts where standard Monte Carlo methods cannot be directly applied due to the high complexity of the dynamic model and/or data limitations.</p><p> Chapter 2 focuses on stochastic bionetwork models applied to data generated from the marginal distribution of a few network nodes at snapshots in time. I present a Bayesian computational strategy, coupled with an approach to summarizing and numerically characterizing biological phenotypes that are represented in terms of the resulting sample distributions of cellular markers. ABC and mixture modeling are used to define the approach to linking mechanistic mathematical models of network dynamics to snapshot data, using a toggle switch example integrating simulated and real data as context. </p><p> Chapter 3 focuses on the application of the methodology presented in Chapter 2 to the Myc/Rb/E2F network. This network involves a relatively high number of parameters and stochastic equations in the model specification and, thus, is substantially more complex than the toggle switch example. The analysis of the Myc/Rb/E2F network is performed with simulated and real data. I demonstrate that the proposed method can indicate which parameters can be learned about using the marginal data. </p><p> In Chapter 4, I present an ABC SMC method that uses data-based adaptive weights. This easily implemented and computationally trivial extension of ABC SMC can substantially improve acceptance rates. This is demonstrated through a series of examples with simulated and real data, including the toggle switch example. Theoretical justification is also provided to explain why this method is expected to improve the effectiveness of ABC SMC.</p><p> In Chapter 5, I present an integrated Bayesian computational strategy for fitting complex dynamic models to sparse time-series data. This is applied to experimental data from an immunization response study with Indian Rhesus macaques. The computational strategy consists of two stages: first, MCMC is implemented based on simplified sampling steps, and then, the resulting approximate output is used to generate a proposal distribution for the parameters that results in an efficient ABC procedure. The incorporation of ABC as a correction tool improves the model fit, as is demonstrated through predictive posterior analysis on the data sets of the study.</p><p> Chapter 6 presents additional discussion and comments on potential future research directions.</p> / Dissertation

Onde há luz suficiente ,os estômatos, pequenos poros localizados na superfície das folhas, com abertura regulável, tendem a abrir . Isto permite a absorção de C02 (e, portanto, a fotossíntese) , e a evaporação de água, que não pode, porém, ser excessiva. As plantas conseguem ajustar a sua abertura dos estômatos, otimizando a absorção de C02 e adequando-se, ao mesmo tempo, à disponibilidade de água no ambiente. Recentemente, inúmeras experiências mostraram que, ao contrário do que se supunha, a abertura de um estômato parece depender da interação deste com seus estômatos vizinhos. Sob estresse hídrico, o movimento de abrir e fechar, dos estômatos de uma região da folha, freqüentemente se sincroniza, formando padrões espaço-temporais persistentes. Este trabalho teve como objetivo o estudo da dinâmica desses padrões. Reproduzimos, num primeiro momento deste estudo, um modelo proposto por Haefner e colaboradores, para entender melhor o problema. Este modelo , no entanto, demonstrou ser ineficiente sob vários aspectos, ao contrário do que observam os autores. Novos modelos foram então propostos, com resultaados mais próximos aos observados nos experimentosque apresentam melhor concordância com os experimentos. Em particular, destacamos o Modelo de Veias Aleatórias com Histerese, que utiliza a hipótese da existência de um retardo e uma histerese no mecanismo de abertura e fechamento dos estômatos, com resultados que reproduzem a diversidade de comportamento da dinâmica estomática observada experimentalmente. / When there is enough light, stomata - variable aperture pores distributed on plant´s leaves - tend to open. This mechanism allows the absorption of C02 (and so the reaction of photosynthesis) as well as the evaporation of water. The plant can adjust its stomatal aperture over time, in order to maximize C02 uptake with an water loss compatible with environmental conditions. Recently, many experiments have shown that the aperture of a single stomata depends on its interaction with the neighbors in an emergent complex behavior. Under water stress the opening and closing of stomata aperture often becomes synchronized in spatially extended patches, with a rich dynamical behavior. In this work we have studied this phenomena. We first reproduce a model proposed by Haefner and collaborators, in an attempt to better understand this phenomena. The model, however, has been unable to generate patches or an oscillatory behavior in the steady state, as claimed by th authors. We proposed then new models, that show better agreement with experiments. In a particular, the model called by us Randon Vein Model with Hysteresis was able to reproduce most of the behaviors observed in real leaves, including the formation of patches and an non-regular oscillations in the steady state.

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Cette thèse est une réflexion originale sur le droit international dans la crise, car elle aborde le droit international grâce à une théorie peu connue en droit, celle des systèmes dynamiques complexes. L’étude du cas particulier de la gestion normative de la crise par le Conseil de sécurité illustre les intérêts de l’utilisation d’une théorie novatrice en droit. La théorie des systèmes dynamiques complexes offre les outils d’une réflexion sur le droit, fondée sur les interactions du droit avec le contexte particulier dans lequel il intervient, la crise, et ses acteurs. La mise en lumière de ces interactions favorise une lecture critique du droit international dans la crise et permet de renouveler l’ontologie de ce droit. Les dynamiques complexes appréhendées et définies par cette théorie sont utiles lorsqu’il s’agit d’expliquer les atouts et les limites de l’action normative du Conseil. Par ailleurs en renouvelant l’ontologie du droit, la théoriedes systèmes dynamiques complexes facilite une lecture prospective de l’action normative du Conseil et insiste sur le rôle institutionnel du droit. / This thesis is an original reflection on international law in time of crisis, as it addresses international law through a little-known theory in law, that of complex dynamic systems. The study of the specific case of the normative management of the crisis by the Security Council illustrates the interest of the use of an innovative theory in law.The theory of complex dynamic systems provides the tools to think differently the law, based on the interaction of law with the particular context in which it operates, the crisis, and its actors. The highlighting of these interactions favors a critical reading of international law in time of crisis and helps to renew the ontology of law. The complex dynamic understood and defined by this theory are useful when explaining the strengths and limitations of the Council’s action in time of crisis. In addition to renewing the ontology of law, complex dynamic systems theory facilitates a prospective reading of the normative action of the Council and stresses the institutional role of law.

This research work provides the development of an Adaptive Flight Control System (AFCS) for autonomous hover of a Rotary-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (RUAV). Due to the complex, nonlinear and time-varying dynamics of the RUAV, indirect adaptive control using the Model Predictive Control (MPC) is utilised. The performance of the MPC mainly depends on the model of the RUAV used for predicting the future behaviour. Due to the complexities associated with the RUAV dynamics, a neural network based black box identification technique is used for modelling the behaviour of the RUAV. Auto-regressive neural network architecture is developed for offline and online modelling purposes. A hybrid modelling technique that exploits the advantages of both the offline and the online models is proposed. In the hybrid modelling technique, the predictions from the offline trained model are corrected by using the error predictions from the online model at every sample time. To reduce the computational time for training the neural networks, a principal component analysis based algorithm that reduces the dimension of the input training data is also proposed. This approach is shown to reduce the computational time significantly. These identification techniques are validated in numerical simulations before flight testing in the Eagle and RMAX helicopter platforms. Using the successfully validated models of the RUAVs, Neural Network based Model Predictive Controller (NN-MPC) is developed taking into account the non-linearity of the RUAVs and constraints into consideration. The parameters of the MPC are chosen to satisfy the performance requirements imposed on the flight controller. The optimisation problem is solved numerically using nonlinear optimisation techniques. The performance of the controller is extensively validated using numerical simulation models before flight testing. The effects of actuator and sensor delays and noises along with the wind gusts are taken into account during these numerical simulations. In addition, the robustness of the controller is validated numerically for possible parameter variations. The numerical simulation results are compared with a base-line PID controller. Finally, the NN-MPCs are flight tested for height control and autonomous hover. For these, SISO as well as multiple SISO controllers are used. The flight tests are conducted in varying weather conditions to validate the utility of the control technique. The NN-MPC in conjunction with the proposed hybrid modelling technique is shown to handle additional disturbances successfully. Extensive flight test results provide justification for the use of the NN-MPC technique as a reliable technique for control of non-linear complex dynamic systems such as RUAVs.

FundaÃÃo de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Cearà / A metÃfora sempre ocupou um lugar de destaque nos estudos do significado e, com o avanÃo das pesquisas em LinguÃstica Cognitiva, essa figura apresenta-se mais evidente quando posta em relaÃÃo com a metonÃmia, que ganha pouco destaque nas pesquisas acadÃmicas. Nesse contexto, a presente pesquisa tem como objetivos: (i) estabelecer a primazia da metonÃmia sobre a metÃfora por meio da anÃlise dinÃmica do discurso dos participantes de grupos focais, ao discutirem a violÃncia urbana na cidade de Fortaleza; (ii) verificar se as relaÃÃes metonÃmicas dÃo-se tanto em nÃvel contextual como de enunciado; e (iii) demonstrar que as metonÃmias sÃo responsÃveis pela emergÃncia de grande parte dos veÃculos metafÃricos, tÃo importantes para a construÃÃo do sentido. Para tanto, fez-se necessÃrio discutir as principais abordagens dos fenÃmenos à luz da teoria dos Sistemas DinÃmicos Complexos, ancorados em Larsen-Freeman (1997); Larsen-Freeman e Cameron (2008), na teoria fractal, com fundamentos em Paiva (2010) e Mandelbrot (1982), assim como Capra (2006). Esse referencial teÃrico serviu de base para verificarmos a hipÃtese de que grande parte das metÃforas serà oriunda de metonÃmia e de que as relaÃÃes que contribuem para a emergÃncia dessa figura deram-se tanto em nÃvel contextual como de enunciado, surgindo de forma fragmentada no discurso real dos participantes dos grupos focais. AlÃm disso, a pesquisa propÃe-se tambÃm a descrever o processo de conceitualizaÃÃo da violÃncia urbana com base nos critÃrios do paradigma da complexidade, mostrando sua importÃncia para as atuais pesquisas. Para dar consistÃncia à nossa discussÃo, embasamo-nos em autores como Goosens (1990, 1995), Barcelona (1997) e Radden (2003) que tambÃm discutem a complexa relaÃÃo entre metÃfora e metonÃmia. Nosso estudo està pautado em uma pesquisa qualitativa e teÃrica, que nos permite refletir acerca da primazia da metonÃmia em relaÃÃo à metÃfora, analisando a transcriÃÃo de trÃs grupos focais que discutiram a questÃo da violÃncia urbana na cidade de Fortaleza-CE. A anÃlise permitiu constatar, atà o momento que, em alguns casos, no processo de conceitualizaÃÃo da violÃncia urbana, a metÃfora tem procedÃncia na metonÃmia, visto que as relaÃÃes que estruturam a metonÃmia, como parte pelo todo, instituiÃÃo pelos responsÃveis, efeito pela causa, entre outros, permeiam tanto o enunciado como o contexto da discussÃo dos participantes dos grupos focais. Isso nos fez chegar à conclusÃo de que uma sÃrie de metÃforas provÃm de metonÃmias o que mostra que, apesar de a metÃfora e a metonÃmia interagirem entre si, em alguns casos, hà primazia desta sobre aquela. / The metaphor has always occupied an important place in meaning studies and with the advances on Cognitive Linguistics researches this figure presents itself more evident when put in relation with metonym, which has less importance on academic researches. In this context, this very work aims: (i) establish the primacy of metonym over metaphor by the dynamic discourse analysis of focal group participants when discussing urban violence in the city of Fortaleza; (ii) verify if the metonymic relations appear both in context and wording; and (iii) demonstrate that metonyms are responsible for the emerging of great part of metaphorical vehicles, so important to the construction of meaning. Thus, it was necessary to discuss the main approaches of these phenomena in light of Complex Dynamic Systems theory, anchored on Larsen-Freeman (1997); Larsen-Freeman e Cameron (2008), on fractal theory, based in Paiva (2010) e Mandelbrot (1982), as Capra (2006). This theoretical reference served as base to verify the hypothesis that great part of metaphors emerge from metonyms and that the relations contribute to the emerging of that both contextual and wording levels arise fragmented in the real discourse of focal group participants. Furthermore, the research proposes itself to also describe the process of conceptualization of urban violence based in the criteria of complexity paradigm, showing its importance to the current researches. To give consistency to that discussion we based ourselves in authors such as Goosens (1990, 1995), Barcelona (1997) and Radden (2003), who also discuss the complex relation between metaphor and metonym. Our study is ruled by a qualitative and theoretical research that allows us to reflect about the primacy of metonym over metaphor, analyzing the transcription of three focal groups that discussed the urban violence in the city of Fortaleza. The analysis allowed until this moment the ascertainment that in some cases, in the process of conceptualization, the metaphor arises from metonym, as relations that structure metonym, such as take a tree for a forest, institution for its responsible ones, effect by cause, permeate both wording and context of the discussion of the focal group participants. This made us come to the conclusion that a series of metaphors come from metonyms, what shows that although metaphor and metonym interact themselves, there is a primacy of the second over the first in some cases.

Adult second language acquisition takes time over an extended period of time during which the L2 motivation of learners goes through periods of ups and downs. Dörnyei, MacIntyre and Henry (2015) recognized the inherently dynamic nature of L2 motivation and called for adopting the Complex Dynamic System Theory (CDST) when studying this phenomenon. While using a CDST perspective, this mixed method study drew on Dörnyei’s (2009b) model of the Motivational Self System to examine the L2 motivation of 86 Saudi study-abroad students. Also, the construct of the Anti-ought to Self (Thompson, 2015) and aspects of the Appraisal Theory (Schumann, 2001) were adopted to guide this examination. The results of the study showed that the L2 motivation of the participants fell into four main motivational patterns. Also, some of the participants shifted into new attractor states over the course of their academic semester. Another important finding was that the Anti-ought to Self appeared as an important construct. The results of the standard multiple regressions showed that the amount of the variance in the Intended Learning Effort that was accounted for by the Anti-ought to Self alone exceeded the amount of the variance accounted for by the other explanatory variables put together. Also, the analysis of the quantitative and qualitative data showed that the use of the Appraisal Theory improved the construct validity of the Learning Experiences. The implications of these findings and future directions of the L2 motivational research were also discussed in the study.