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I. Kinetic and Computational Modeling Studies of Dimethyldioxirane Epoxidations II. Adressing Misconceptions About Energy Changes in Chemical Reactions Through Hands-on ActivitiesMcTush-Camp, Davita 11 May 2015 (has links)
Kinetic studies determining the second order rate constants for the monoepoxidation of cyclic dienes, 1,3-cyclohexadiene and 1,3-cyclooctadiene, and the epoxidation of cis-/trans-2-hexenes by dimethyldioxirane (DMDO) were carried out using UV methodology. Consistent with published results, the kinetics of cis-/trans-2-hexenes by DMDO showed greater reactivity of the cis-isomer compared to that of the trans-compound. Molecular modeling studies for the epoxidation of a series of cis-/trans-alkenes, by DMDO were carried out using the DFT approach. The mechanism of epoxidation by DMDO was modeled by determining the transition state geometry and calculating the electronic activation energies and relative reactivities. The calculations were consistent with a concerted, electrophilic, exothermic process with a spiro-transition state for all cases. Kinetic studies for the monoepoxidation of the cyclic dienes showed a greater reactivity for 1,3-cyclohexadiene compared to that for 1,3-cyclooctadiene. The DFT method was employed to successfully model the transition state for the monoepoxidation of the cyclic dienes by DMDO and successfully predict the relative reactivities.
Student misconceptions, at the high school and/or middle school level involving energy changes and chemical reactions have been prevalently noted in literature (by ACS and AAAS). Two examples of these misconceptions are: 1) heat is always needed to initiate a chemical reaction and 2) all chemical reactions create or destroy energy. In order to address these types of misconceptions, an educational module detailing the influence of energy changes on chemical reactions has been developed in conjunction with the Bio-bus program for middle and high school students. Visual aids and hands-on activities were developed in the module to potentially help students overcome/deal with the common misconceptions. Surveys were designed to access the situations (determine the extent of the misconceptions) and the effectiveness of the educational module, before and immediately after the module and one-month later to determine retention. The educational module has been presented to approximately 100 high school students from underrepresented communities. Pre-survey data confirmed the presence of the common misconceptions reported in the literature. Data from the post-survey indicated the new instructional module enhanced the student’s interest of science and expanded their content knowledge and laboratory skills. The post-survey data (immediately following the module) showed a significant difference in two out of five misconceptions when compared to the pre-survey data. However, this significance decreased when the 1-month post-survey data were compared to the pre-survey data.
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Model Validation and Discovery for Complex Stochastic SystemsJha, Sumit Kumar 02 July 2010 (has links)
In this thesis, we study two fundamental problems that arise in the modeling of stochastic systems: (i) Validation of stochastic models against behavioral specifications such as temporal logics, and (ii) Discovery of kinetic parameters of stochastic biochemical models from behavioral specifications.
We present a new Bayesian algorithm for Statistical Model Checking of stochastic systems based on a sequential version of Jeffreys’ Bayes Factor test. We argue that the Bayesian approach is more suited for application do- mains like systems biology modeling, where distributions on nuisance parameters and priors may be known. We prove that our Bayesian Statistical Model Checking algorithm terminates for a large subclass of prior probabilities. We also characterize the Type I/II errors associated with our algorithm. We experimentally demonstrate that this algorithm is suitable for the analysis of complex biochemical models like those written in the BioNetGen language. We then argue that i.i.d. sampling based Statistical Model Checking algorithms are not an effective way to study rare behaviors of stochastic models and present another Bayesian Statistical Model Checking algorithm that can incorporate non-i.i.d. sampling strategies.
We also present algorithms for synthesis of chemical kinetic parameters of stochastic biochemical models from high level behavioral specifications. We consider the setting where a modeler knows facts that must hold on the stochastic model but is not confident about some of the kinetic parameters in her model. We suggest algorithms for discovering these kinetic parameters from facts stated in appropriate formal probabilistic specification languages. Our algorithms are based on our theoretical results characterizing the probability of a specification being true on a stochastic biochemical model. We have applied this algorithm to discover kinetic parameters for biochemical models with as many as six unknown parameters.
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Mindless reading and eye movements : theory, experiments and computational modelingSchad, Daniel Johannes January 2012 (has links)
It sometimes happens that we finish reading a passage of text just to realize that we have no idea what we just read. During these episodes of mindless reading our mind is elsewhere yet the eyes still move across the text. The phenomenon of mindless reading is common and seems to be widely recognized in lay psychology. However, the scientific investigation of mindless reading has long been underdeveloped. Recent progress in research on mindless reading has been based on self-report measures and on treating it as an all-or-none phenomenon (dichotomy-hypothesis). Here, we introduce the levels-of-inattention hypothesis proposing that mindless reading is graded and occurs at different levels of cognitive processing. Moreover, we introduce two new behavioral paradigms to study mindless reading at different levels in the eye-tracking laboratory.
First (Chapter 2), we introduce shuffled text reading as a paradigm to approximate states of weak mindless reading experimentally and compare it to reading of normal text. Results from statistical analyses of eye movements that subjects perform in this task qualitatively support the ‘mindless’ hypothesis that cognitive influences on eye movements are reduced and the ‘foveal load’ hypothesis that the response of the zoom lens of attention to local text difficulty is enhanced when reading shuffled text. We introduce and validate an advanced version of the SWIFT model (SWIFT 3) incorporating the zoom lens of attention (Chapter 3) and use it to explain eye movements during shuffled text reading. Simulations of the SWIFT 3 model provide fully quantitative support for the ‘mindless’ and the ‘foveal load’ hypothesis. They moreover demonstrate that the zoom lens is an important concept to explain eye movements across reading and mindless reading tasks.
Second (Chapter 4), we introduce the sustained attention to stimulus task (SAST) to catch episodes when external attention spontaneously lapses (i.e., attentional decoupling or mind wandering) via the overlooking of errors in the text and via signal detection analyses of error detection. Analyses of eye movements in the SAST revealed reduced influences from cognitive text processing during mindless reading. Based on these findings, we demonstrate that it is possible to predict states of mindless reading from eye movement recordings online. That cognition is not always needed to move the eyes supports autonomous mechanisms for saccade initiation. Results from analyses of error detection and eye movements provide support to our levels-of-inattention hypothesis that errors at different levels of the text assess different levels of decoupling. Analyses of pupil size in the SAST (Chapter 5) provide further support to the levels of inattention hypothesis and to the decoupling hypothesis that off-line thought is a distinct mode of cognitive functioning that demands cognitive resources and is associated with deep levels of decoupling.
The present work demonstrates that the elusive phenomenon of mindless reading can be vigorously investigated in the cognitive laboratory and further incorporated in the theoretical framework of cognitive science. / Beim Lesen passiert es manchmal dass wir zum Ende einer Textpassage gelangen und dabei plötzlich bemerken dass wir keinerlei Erinnerung daran haben was wir soeben gelesen haben. In solchen Momenten von gedankenverlorenem Lesen ist unser Geist abwesend, aber die Augen bewegen sich dennoch über den Text. Das Phänomen des gedankenverlorenen Lesens ist weit verbreitet und scheint in der Laienpsychologie allgemein anerkannt zu sein. Die wissenschaftliche Untersuchung von gedankenverlorenem Lesen war jedoch lange Zeit unzureichend entwickelt. Neuerer Forschungsfortschritt basierte darauf gedankenverlorenes Lesen durch Selbstberichte zu untersuchen und als ein Phänomen zu behandeln das entweder ganz oder gar nicht auftritt (Dichotomie-Hypothese). Hier stellen wir die ‚Stufen der Unaufmerksamkeit’-Hypothese auf, dass gedankenverlorenes Lesen ein graduelles Phänomen ist, das auf verschiedenen kognitiven Verarbeitungsstufen entsteht. Wir stellen zudem zwei neue Verhaltensparadigmen vor um verschiedene Stufen von gedankenverlorenem Lesen im Augenbewegungslabor zu untersuchen.
Als erstes (in Kapitel 2) stellen wir das Lesen von verwürfeltem Text vor als ein Paradigma um Zustände von schwach gedankenverlorenem Lesen experimentell anzunähern, und vergleichen es mit dem Lesen von normalem Text. Die Ergebnisse von statistischen Augenbewegungsanalysen unterstützen qualitativ die ‚Unaufmerksamkeits’-Hypothese, dass kognitive Einflüsse auf Augenbewegungen beim Lesen von verwürfeltem Text reduziert ist, und die ‚Foveale Beanspruchungs’-Hypothese, dass die Reaktion der zoom lens visueller Aufmerksamkeit auf lokale Textschwierigkeit beim Lesen von verwürfeltem Text verstärkt ist. Wir stellen eine weiterentwickelte Version des SWIFT Modells (SWIFT 3) vor, welches die zoom lens der Aufmerksamkeit implementiert, und validieren dieses Modell am Lesen von verwürfeltem und normalem Text (Kapitel 3). Simulationen des SWIFT 3 Modells unterstützen die ‚Unaufmerksamkeits’ und die ‚Foveal Beanspruchungs’-Hypothese in einem vollständig quantitativen Modell. Zudem zeigen sie, dass die zoom lens der Aufmerksamkeit ein wichtiges Konzept ist um Augenbewegungen in Aufgaben zum Lesen und gedankenverlorenen Lesen zu erklären.
Als zweites (Kapitel 4) stellen wir den sustained attention to stimulus task (SAST) vor um Episoden von spontaner externer Unaufmerksamkeit (also Entkopplung der Aufmerksamkeit oder Abschweifen der Gedanken) in einem Paradigma über Verhaltensparameter wie das Übersehen von Fehlern im Text und Signal-Detektions-Analysen von Fehlerentdeckung zu messen. Augenbewegungsanalysen im SAST decken abgeschwächte Einflüsse von kognitiver Textverarbeitung während gedankenverlorenem Lesen auf. Basierend auf diesen Befunden zeigen wir, dass es möglich ist Zustände von gedankenverlorenem Lesen online, also während dem Lesen, aus Augenbewegungen vorherzusagen bzw. abzulesen. Dass höhere Kognition nicht immer notwendig ist um die Augen zu bewegen unterstützt zudem autonome Mechanismen der Sakkadeninitiierung. Ergebnisse aus Analysen von Fehlerdetektion und Augenbewegungen unterstützen unsere ‚Stufen der Unaufmerksamkeit’-Hypothese, dass Fehler auf verschiedenen Textebenen verschiedene Stufen von Entkopplung messen. Analysen der Pupillengröße im SAST (Kapitel 5) bieten weitere Unterstützung für die ‚Stufen der Unaufmerksamkeit’-Hypothese, sowie für die Entkopplungs-Hypothese, dass abschweifende Gedanken eine abgegrenzte kognitiver Funktionsweise darstellen, welche kognitive Ressourcen benötigt und mit tiefen Stufen von Unaufmerksamkeit zusammenhängt.
Die aktuelle Arbeit zeigt, dass das flüchtige Phänomen des gedankenverlorenen Lesens im kognitiven Labor mit strengen Methoden untersucht und weitergehend in den theoretischen Rahmen der Kognitionswissenschaft eingefügt werden kann.
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Verificação à fadiga de pontes rodoviárias mistas (aço-concreto) / Fatigue analysis of composite highway bridgesFernando Nahid Leitão 06 March 2009 (has links)
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / As pontes rodoviárias mistas (aço-concreto) estão sujeitadas às ações dinâmicas variáveis, por exemplo, devido ao tráfego de veículos sobre a superfície irregular do pavimento. Estas ações dinâmicas podem gerar a nucleação de fraturas ou mesmo a sua propagação sobre a estrutura. A correta consideração desses aspectos objetivou o desenvolvimento de uma metodologia de análise, com a finalidade de avaliar os níveis dos esforços e tensões oriundos do tráfego dos veículos sobre a superfície irregular do pavimento e, bem como, proceder uma verificação à fadiga de obras de arte rodoviárias em aço e mistas (aço-concreto). Para tal, as técnicas para a contagem de ciclos de tensão e a aplicação das regras de dano acumulado foram analisadas através de curvas do tipo S-N, associadas a diversas normas de projeto. A ponte rodoviária mista (aço-concreto) investigada neste estudo é constituída por quatro vigas de aço longitudinais e por um tabuleiro de concreto armado. O modelo numérico-computacional, desenvolvido para a análise dinâmica da ponte, foi concebido com base em técnicas usuais de discretização através do método dos elementos finitos. Simulam-se as almas das vigas de aço e as lajes de concreto do tabuleiro através de elementos finitos de casca. As mesas dessas vigas, transversinas e os enrijecedores são modelados por elementos de viga tridimensionais. Os veículos são representados a partir de sistemas "massa-mola-amortecedor". O tráfego dessas viaturas é considerado mediante a simulação de comboios semi-infinitos, deslocando-se com velocidade constante sobre a ponte. As conclusões da presente investigação versam acerca da vida útil de serviço dos elementos estruturais de pontes mistas (aço-concreto). / Steel and composite highway bridges (steel-concrete) are currently subjected to dynamic actions, for example, variable magnitude due to vehicles traffic on the deck rough pavement. These dynamic actions can generate the fractures nucleation or even their propagation on the structure. The correct consideration of these aspects pointed out to an analysis methodology developed, in order to evaluate the stresses through a dynamical analysis on highway bridge decks, due to vehicles crossing on the irregular pavement surfaces and to proceed a fatigue verification from Steel and composite highway bridges (steel-concrete). The stress cycles counting techniques and the cumulative damage rules application had been analyzed through S-N curves associated with diverse projects norms. The steel and composite highway bridge (steel-concrete), investigated in this study, is constituted by four longitudinal steel beams and a composite deck. The computational model, developed for the bridge dynamic analysis , adopted the usual mesh refinement techniques present in finite element method simulations. The beam web thickness was represented by shell finite elements. The beam top and bottom flange and the longitudinal and vertical stiffeners were simulated by three-dimensional beam elements, where flexural and torsion effects were considered. The bridge concrete slab was simulated by shell finite elements. The vehicles are represented from "mass-spring-damper" systems. The traffic of these vehicles is considered as a simulation of half-infinite convoys dislocating with constant speed on the bridge. The present study conclusions concerning steel and composite highway bridges (steel-concrete) structural elements service life.
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Constructal design de dispositivos conversores de energia das ondas do mar em energia elétrica do tipo coluna de água oscilante / Constructal design of an oscillating water column device for the conversion of wave ocean energy into electrical energyGomes, Mateus das Neves January 2014 (has links)
O presente trabalho apresenta um estudo numérico bidimensional sobre a otimização da geometria de um dispositivo conversor de energia das ondas do mar em energia elétrica. O objetivo principal é, através da modelagem computacional de um dispositivo cujo principio de funcionamento é o de Coluna de Água Oscilante (CAO) e do emprego de Constructal Design, maximizar a conversão da energia das ondas do mar em energia elétrica. Essa técnica é baseada na Teoria Constructal. O aspecto inédito deste trabalho, em relação aos estudos disponíveis na literatura, é o fato de levar em conta o clima de ondas de uma dada região e, a partir disso, dimensionar o dispositivo de modo que ele tenha um desempenho otimizado. Para tanto, foi empregado o método Constructal Design, os graus de liberdade empregados são: H1/L (razão entre a altura e o comprimento da câmara CAO) e H3 (profundidade de submersão do dispositivo CAO). A relação H2/l (razão entre altura e comprimento da chaminé de saída da câmara CAO) é considerada um parâmetro fixo. Foram realizados estudos levando em conta uma onda em escala de laboratório e um espectro de ondas real. Foi também realizado um estudo sobre a influência da perda de carga da turbina através de uma restrição física. Para a solução numérica foi empregado um código comercial de dinâmica dos fluidos computacional, FLUENT®, baseado no Método de Volumes Finitos (MVF). A geometria e a geração a malha foi realizada no software GAMBIT®. O modelo multifásico Volume of Fluid (VOF) é aplicado no tratamento da interação água-ar. O domínio computacional é representado por um tanque de ondas com o dispositivo CAO acoplado. Os resultados obtidos mostram que é possível estabelecer uma razão de H1/L ótimo, conhecendo-se o clima de ondas, ou seja, o recomendável é que esta razão seja igual a quatro vezes a altura da onda dividido pelo comprimento da onda incidente. / The present work presents a two-dimensional numerical study about the geometric optimization of an ocean Wave Energy Converter (WEC) into electrical energy. The main goal is, through computational modeling of a device whose operating principle is the Oscillating Water Column (OWC) and from employment Constructal Design, to maximize the conversion of energy of ocean waves into electricity. This technique is based on Constructal Theory. The inedited aspect of this work comparing to the available studies is that it takes into account the wave climate of a given region to design the device so that it achieves optimum performance. Constructal Design is employed varying the degrees of freedom H1/L (ratio between the height and length of OWC chamber) and H3 (lip submergence). While the relation H2/l (ratio between height and length of chimney) is kept fixed. Studies were performed considering a wave on a laboratory scale and a spectrum of real waves. Yet a study of the influence of the turbine pressure losses was performed using a physical constraint. For the numerical solution it is used the Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) commercial code FLUENT®, based on the Finite Volume Method (FVM). The geometry and mesh generation was performed in GAMBIT ® software. The multiphasic Volume of Fluid (VOF) model is applied to tackle with the water-air interaction. The computational domain is represented by an OWC device coupled with the wave tank. The results show that it is possible to establish a relationship of H1 / L optimum, if the wave climate is know. It is recommended that this ratio be equal to four times the height of the wave divided by the length of the incident wave.
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Models of neurodegeneration using computational approachesKhabirova, Eleonora January 2016 (has links)
Alzheimer's disease (AD), as one of the most common neurodegenerative diseases, is characterized by the loss of neuronal dysfunction and death resulting in progressive cognitive impairment. The main histopathological hallmark of AD is the accumulation and deposition of misfolded Aβ peptide as amyloid plaques, however the precise role of Aβ toxicity in the disease pathogenesis is still unclear. Moreover, at early stages of the disease the important clinical features of the disorder, in addition to memory loss, are the disruptions of circadian rhythms and spatial disorientation. In the present work I first studied the role of Aβ toxicity by comparing the findings of genome-wide association studies in sporadic AD with the results of an RNAi screen in a transgenic C. elegans model of Aβ toxicity. The initial finding was that none of the human orthologues of these worm genes are associated with risk for sporadic Alzheimer’s disease, indicating that Aβ toxicity in the worm model may not be equivalent to sporadic AD. Nevertheless, comparing the first degree physical interactors (+1 interactome) of the GWAS and worm screen-derived gene products have uncovered 4 worm genes that have a +1 interactome overlap with the GWAS genes that is larger than one would expect by chance. Three of these genes form a chaperonin complex and the fourth gene codes for actin, a major substrate of the same chaperonin. Next I have evaluated the circadian disruptions in AD by developing a new system to simultaneously monitor the oscillations of the peripheral molecular clock and behavioural rhythms in single Drosophila. Experiments were undertaken on wild- type and Aβ-expressing flies. The results indicate the robustness of the peripheral clock is not correlated with the robustness of the circadian sleep and locomotor behaviours, indicating that the molecular clock does not directly drive behaviour. This is despite period length correlations that indicate that the underlying molecular mechanisms that generate both molecular and behavioural rhythms are the same. Rhythmicity in Aβ-expressing flies is worse than in controls. I further investigated the mechanism of spatial orientation in Drosophila. It was established that in the absence of visual stimuli the flies use self-motion cues to orientate themselves within the tubes and that in a Drosophila model of Aβ toxicity this control function is disrupted.
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Projeto e implementação de módulo TAOS-Graph da ferramenta iTAOS para análise e modelagem da tarefa. / Design and implementation of the TAOS-Graph module of the iTAOS tool for task analysis and modeling.MEDEIROS, Francisco Petrônio Alencar de. 27 August 2018 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2003-02-26 / Esse trabalho apresenta o processo de construção e implementação do módulo TAOSGraph da ferramenta iTAOS. iTAOS é uma ferramenta gráfica que implementa o formalismo TAOS (Task and Action Oriented System) concebida para acompanhar o projetista de interfaces durante a fase de análise e descrição da tarefa dentro de um processo de desenvolvimento de interfaces, verificando a completude e consistência da representação. TAOS-Graph foi desenvolvido utilizando a metodologia MEDITE, uma metodologia guiada por modelos e baseada na tarefa para construção de interfaces ergonômicas. Os artefatos gerados ao final de cada etapa do processo de desenvolvimento de TAOS-Graph foram: a descrição TAOS da tarefa, a especificação conceitual da interação e o código da interface. Como recomenda a metodologia, foi realizada uma inspeção de conformidade da ferramenta iTAOS com as partes 14 (Menus), 16 (Manipulação direta) e 17 (Formulários) do padrão ISO 9241. / This work presents the process of construction and implementation of the TAOSGraph
module of the iTAOS tool. iTAOS is a graphical tool that implements the TAOS
formalism (Task and Action Oriented System) and is responsible for accompanying the
interface designer (iTAOS user) during domain task’s description and analysis phases within the interface development process, verifying the completeness and the consistency of the representation. TAOS-Graph was developed using the methodology MEDITE, a methodology guided for models and based in the task for construction of ergonomic interfaces. The artefacts generated to the end of each stage of the development process of TAOS-Graph had been: description TAOS of the task, the conceptual specification of the interaction and the code of the interface. As recommends the methodology, iTAOS was carried through an inspection of conformity with the parts 14, 16 and 17 of the standard ISO 9241.
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THÊMIS: um sistema para análise forense de DNA utilizando Redes Baysianas. / THÊMIS: a software for DNA forensic analysis using Bayesian Networks.Costa, José Tenório César 13 April 2009 (has links)
Since the mid 80, DNA fingerprinting has revolutionized forensic science, providing
a powerful tool for research, currently being widely used in studies of
paternity. Laboratories that work with forensic analysis of DNA carry increasing
amounts of such studies and encourage the use of software systems that
help with this type of analysis. One of the requirements for software of this
magnitude is reliability, considering the level of detail of the study. Thus, it is
interesting the use of formal methods. In this work, a software system called
THÊMIS is built. THÊMIS uses Bayesian Networks as knowledge representation
about studies of paternity, using inferences to obtain the results required
by the forensic genetics regarding the calculation of the Index of Paternity (IP) / Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Alagoas / Desde meados da década de 80, a tipagem do DNA (DNA fingerprinting) tem
revolucionado a ciência forense, provendo uma poderosa ferramenta de investigação,
sendo atualmente bastante utilizada em estudos de paternidade. Os
laboratórios que trabalham com a análise forense de DNA realizam quantidades
cada vez maiores de estudos desse tipo, incitando o uso de sistemas de
software que auxiliem essa análise. Dentre as características essenciais para
softwares dessa magnitude, está a confiabilidade, haja vista a minuciosidade
do estudo. Dessa forma, é interessante o uso de métodos formais na execução
de tais estudos. Neste trabalho, é construído um sistema de software, denominado
THÊMIS, que utiliza o ferramental das Redes Bayesianas como meio
de representação do conhecimento acerca de estudos de paternidade, obtendo
por meio de inferências os resultados requeridos pela genética forense no que
tange ao cálculo do Índice de Paternidade (IP)
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Modelagem computacional da interdependência entre o fenômeno enos e a precipitação pluviométrica na Região Leste do Estado de Alagoas / Computer modeling of the interdependence between enso and rainfall in the eastern State of AlagoasSilva, Jorge Silvestre da 31 May 2012 (has links)
Some stochastic phenomena can some way cause meaningful damages to the nature and human being as well. Among these phenomena there is the variable meteorological rainfall, which is the most important one for the agricultural and environmental activities developed in the tropical regions. Although its record has been taking as one of the simplest ones it s difficult, in some places, its measurement due to the lack of a well distributed pluviometer station net in most of the regions or due to mistakes occurred during the measured caused by badly calibrated instruments. The computational model has been more and more accepted and applied as a technique that allows to the analysts from different segments to verify or offer solutions with the efficiency required to the problems with whom they deal with daily in several areas of the human activities. The rainfall, through its relevance in the socio-economical context, mainly in regions where people live predominantly with an agricultural economy, the lack of rain causes a large loss in the productive sector and also causes the rural exodus. In this context, the variable rainfall is studied in this research work, using computational model techniques, monitored throughout 100 years, from 1911 to 2010, as a way to better understand its behavior, making possible that way, to generate appropriated information for the decision making / Alguns fenômenos estocásticos podem de alguma forma, causar danos significativos à natureza e ao ser humano. Entre esses fenômenos se encontra a variável meteorológica precipitação pluviométrica, que é a mais importante para as atividades agrícolas e ambientais desenvolvidas nas regiões tropicais. Embora seu registro seja tido como um dos mais simples torna-se difícil, em alguns locais, a sua medição dada a falta de uma rede de estações pluviométricas bem distribuídas na maioria das regiões ou pela ocorrência de erros de medição causados por instrumentos mal calibrados. A modelagem computacional tem sido cada vez mais aceita e empregada como uma técnica que permite aos analistas dos mais diversos segmentos, verificarem ou encaminharem soluções, com a profundidade desejada, aos problemas com os quais lidam diariamente, nas mais diversas áreas de atividades humanas. A precipitação pluviométrica, pela sua relevância no contexto sócio-econômico, principalmente em regiões onde predominantemente se convive com uma economia agrícola, a falta de chuva acarreta grandes perdas no setor produtivo e também acarreta o êxodo rural. Nesse contexto, a variável precipitação pluviométrica é estudada neste trabalho de pesquisa, utilizando-se de técnicas de modelagem computacional, monitorada ao longo de cem anos, de 1911 a 2010, como forma de melhor entender o seu comportamento, podendo assim, gerar informações pertinentes para a tomada de decisão
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Especificação e implementação de um sistema evolutivo de apoio à análise de demonstrações contábeis SEADC para fins de tomada de decisão / Specification and implementation of a evolutionary system to support financial statement analysis - ESAAS for decision makingNeves, Cleonábula Maria Maranhão 03 July 2012 (has links)
This paper describes the specification and implementation of a computational system entitled Evolutionary Support System for the Analysis of Accounting Statements (ESAAS), which aims to optimize decision making, and uses variations of the genetic algorithm from Holland. In its specification, there is a population formed by chromosomes that are vectors over a ternary alphabet with size corresponding to the number of account statements contained in the type of analysis chosen by the user. The ESAAS diagnoses the financial and economic situation of commercial, industrial companies or service providers, whether they are classified as micro, small, average, average-large or large companies. The diagnosis done by ESAAS was based on the analyzes of liquidity, debt profitability, added value, average terms, vertical and horizontal analyzes; and in the diagnosis of the analytical combination of liquidity, profitability and debt with the vertical analysis, showing as a justification, the influence of each of the accounts or group of financial accounts involved. The system receives as input a set of indexes, total values of the accounts or groups of accounts of financial accounting standards of the company that will be considered in a determinted period, consisting of consecutive years, being considered the minimum of three years. To validate the ESAAS, tests were performed with data obtained from the financial statements from companies in the years 2008, 2009 and 2010. The system was implemented in the eclipse compiler, using the JAVA programming language. The results achieved in the calculation of the quotients obtained in all the seven types of analyzes performed achieved 100% of correctness. Therefore concluding that the ESAAS infers knowledge to decision-making, through diagnostic reports generated. / Este trabalho descreve a especificação e a implementação de um sistema computacional, intitulado de Sistema Evolutivo de Apoio à Análise de Demonstrações Contábeis (SEADC), que visa otimizar a tomada de decisão, e utiliza variações do algoritmo genético de Holland. Possui em sua especificação uma população formada por cromossomos que são vetores sobre um alfabeto ternário, com tamanho correspondente ao número de contas contábeis contidas no tipo de análise escolhida pelo usuário. O SEADC faz o diagnóstico da situação financeira e econômica de empresas comerciais, industriais ou prestadoras de serviço, sejam elas classificadas como micro, pequena, média, média-grande ou grande empresa. O diagnóstico realizado pelo SEADC foi baseado nas análises de liquidez, endividamento, rentabilidade, valor adicionado, prazos médios, análises vertical e horizontal; e no diagnóstico da combinação das análises de liquidez, rentabilidade e endividamento com a análise vertical, mostrando, como justificativa, a influência de cada uma das contas ou grupo de contas contábeis envolvidos. O sistema recebe como entrada um conjunto de índices, valores dos saldos das contas ou grupos de contas contábeis de demonstrações padronizadas da empresa que será analisada, em um determinado período, composto por anos consecutivos, sendo considerado o mínimo de três anos. Para validar o SEADC foram realizados testes com dados obtidos de demonstrações contábeis de empresas nos anos de 2008, 2009 e 2010. O sistema foi implementado no compilador eclipse, usando-se linguagem de programação JAVA. Os resultados alcançados no cálculo dos quocientes obtidos em todos os sete tipos de análises realizadas alcançaram 100% de corretude. Conclui-se, portanto, que o SEADC infere conhecimento à tomada de decisão, através dos relatórios de diagnósticos gerados.
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