This report is a master thesis project done as a final project of Industrial design engineering with a master in production engineering, at Luleå University of Technology during the spring of 2021. The project was done as a collaboration with the company Nord-lock, based out of Mattmar, Sweden. The company produce wedge-locking washers that use tension instead of friction to secure critical bolted joints. The purpose of the project was to create a simulation model which can be used as a tool for improving production utilisation. The company do not currently use simulation within the organisation, requiring the model to be built up from scratch. The overall project structure has followed a cyclic process which divides it into three different laps. The first lap focused on mapping the production and gaining an understanding of the manufacturing and business systems. The second lap focused on the creation of the simulation model and further data collection. The third lap looked into validation and experimentation with the simulation model, creating cases to test the use and outputs of the model. The simulation model followed four key stages for conducting a simulation study, going from creating an understanding of the real world and the problems to the solutions.  The current state was mapped using different methods for data collection and further analysis of the findings. Direct observation with operators at the shop floor was used to gain an understanding of how a batch travels through the manufacturing system. Observing the human operations that are required for different activities was important for creating a map over the necessary steps in a process. The production is divided into two different flow groups, with machines and operations being placed into machine groups under these. The surface treatment is an important step in assuring the products quality and exists as a collection of machine groups under the first flow group. It became clear that the production planning of batches was separated between the two flow groups, creating a disconnection to how a batch travels through the entire manufacturing system. The simulation model would aim to allow batches to be planned from creation to finished product, observing how they behave through the system.  Due to limited experience of the simulation software within the company, the creation of the model into a tool required control of inputs being accessible to the intended users. The inputs and outputs of the system are therefore controlled using excel sheets which only requires a user to have experience with excel and the existing business systems. Data for activities within the simulation model is gathered from the business systems, which gets their data from the results of the actual manufacturing system. A user guide was created to assist users with adding new articles or change data into the simulation model. The excel sheet which displays the outputs of the system is connected to the simulation model and updates as the model is run.  The simulation model showed that the surface treatment is a big bottleneck for the throughput of the system. Subsequent cases that were created experimented with how this bottleneck react to different inputs. When increasing the throughput time of the machine groups before the surface treatment, no real increase in the throughput of the system was found. The queue time before the bottleneck decreased greatly when comparing the results to the regular model. The second case observed how the system reacts to changes in the surface treatment, comparing the results to the previous case. The final chapter discusses how the tool can be used within the company. A sustainable context is used to show how different results can affect the sustainability within the manufacturing system in all three aspects.

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Over the last few decades, freshwater turtles have become more common in the global illegal wildlife trade because of the growing demand in the pet trade. Illegally traded turtles may be intercepted and deposited by a number of agencies. However, when turtles are confiscated, many uncertainties and risks make releasing them back to the wild difficult. Therefore, we used tools from decision analysis to achieve the following three objectives: (1) to identify points of intervention in illegal turtle trade using conceptual models, (2) to outline the linked decisions for turtle confiscation and repatriation using decision trees, and (3) to evaluate the decision trees for two example scenarios, one with complete information and one with uncertainty. We used the wood turtle (Glyptemys insculpta) as a case study, which is a species of conservation concern, in part due to illegal wildlife trafficking. We conducted informational interviews of biologists, law enforcement, land managers, and zoo staff, which we refer to as a decision makers. Interviews revealed that decisions regarding the disposition of confiscated turtles are complicated by uncertainty in disease status and potential differences in origin and confiscation locations. Decision makers that handle confiscated turtles also recognize that their decisions are linked, where linkages rely on personal contacts. In evaluating our decision trees, we found that despite different amounts and kinds of uncertainties, release of the confiscated wood turtles to the wild provided the highest conservation value. Collectively, our research shows how the use of decision trees can help improve decision making in the face of uncertainty.

The number of new cases of lung and bronchus cancer was 55.8 per 100,000 men and women per year. The number of deaths was 44.7 per 100,000 men and women per year. These rates are age-adjusted and based on 2010-2014 cases and deaths. Each year, more people die of lung cancer than of colon, breast, and prostate cancers combined. The knowledge that lung cancer can be successfully treated if caught early has driven a decades-long search to find an accurate and reliable screening test. National Cancer Institute's National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) found that annual screening with Low-Dose CT (LDCT) for asymptomatic patients aged 55 to 74, with a smoking history of at least 30 pack-years, and smokers who quit less than 15 years ago, had a 20% reduction in risk of death from lung cancer. Findings of this trial resulted in that LDCT becoming the gold standard of screening for lung cancer. The SEED method is a community-engaged research approach to develop conceptual models and generate patient-centered research questions. This method has been used to engage community stakeholders of Martinsville, Virginia to develop conceptual models of the factors contributing to lung cancer outcomes. In the first manuscript of this dissertation, these models which were produced by 3 different groups of stakeholders have been examined closely to explore the complexity, similarities, and differences. The models were used to produce a research agenda on the topic of factors impacting lung cancer outcomes for future researchers. A literature review was conducted by the study team on the final research agenda. The goal of this literature review was to avoid duplication of research and to focus future research on the identified gaps. The knowledge and attitudes of the health care providers and patients about lung cancer screening and the barriers in the uptake of LDCT were identified as a research gap. The design of the Martinsville lung cancer study described in the second manuscript of this dissertation responds to this identified research gap. These studies and their results shed light on the factors that impact lung cancer outcomes using a community based participatory approach. / Ph. D.

An experiment was conducted to determine the effects of subjective culture on the usability of computerized systems. The results of the experiment did not provide sufficient evidence to conclude that any of the tested cultural dimensions affected the usability of the product. Analysis of the results indicated that the differences in scores could have been attributable to variables other than those tested and controlled for. This indicated a need to build a more detailed conceptual model of usability before empirical research of this nature can be effectively conducted. Consequently, further work needed to be done to identify the variables that influence usability, and the strategies for controlling for these variables under experimental conditions. Through a literature investigation, the validity of some of the proposed variables was established, and some additional variables were identified. The valid variables were then incorporated into a conceptual model of usability for use in future research endeavors. / Information systems / M. Sc.

Adverse health effects from exposure to air pollution, although at present only partly understood, are a global challenge and of widespread concern. Quantifying human exposure to air pollutants is challenging, as ambient concentrations of air pollutants at potentially harmful levels are ubiquitous and subject to high spatial and temporal variability. At the same time, individuals have their very own unique activity-patterns. Hence exposure results from intertwined relationships between environmental and human systems add complexity to the assessment process. It is essential to develop a deeper understanding of individual exposure pathways and situations occurring in people’s everyday lives. This is important especially with regard to exposure and health impact assessment which provide the basis for public health advice and policy development. This thesis describes the development and application of a personal monitoring method to assess exposure to fine particulate matter in a variety of microenvironments. Tools and methods applied are tested with respect to feasibility, intrusiveness, performance and potential for future applications. The development of the method focuses on the application in everyday environments and situations in an attempt to capture as much of the total exposure as possible, across a complete set of microenvironments. Seventeen volunteers took part in the pilot study, collected data and provided feedback on methodology and tools applied. The low-cost particle counter applied showed good agreement with reference instruments when studied in two different environments. Based on the assessment of the two instruments functions to derive particle mass concentration from the original particle number counts have been defined. The application of the devices and tools received positive feedback from the volunteers. Limitations are mainly related to the non-weatherproof design of the particle counter. The collection of time-activity patterns with GPS and time-activity diaries is challenging and requires careful processing. Resulting personal exposure profiles highlight the influence of individual activities and contextual factors. Highest concentrations were measured in indoor environments where people also spent the majority of time. Differences between transport modes as well as between urban and rural areas were identified.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015 / ENGLISH ABSTRACT : In this study we look at the syndemic of substance abuse and drug-related crime in the Western Cape province of South Africa. The intent of this study is to provoke critical thinking about the possibilities systems thinking and system dynamics posses for social and health challenges in a diverse and complex environment like that of South Africa, especially the Western Cape. This study ventures into cross-discipline work between Epidemiology, Biomathematics and System Dynamics, with the hope of encouraging researchers from different fields to collaborate in order to curb the scourge of substance abuse and drug-related crime in South Africa. Substance abuse and the associated health and social hazards such as drug-related crime is a major problem in the Western Cape. Drug-related crime cases reported by the South African Police Services (SAPS) for the Western Cape exhibited a 311.5% growth in the past decade. This highlights how the reduction of substance abuse and drug-related crime within theWestern Cape province, will be an elixir for the safety and development of the communities. The fight against substance abuse has been driven by a multi-sectorial approach involving several government departments, non-governmental organisations and communities. With systems thinking the assumption is that the world is systemic, which means that phenomena is understood to be an emergent property of the interrelated whole. Firstly, using non-linear ordinary differential equations, we formulate a deterministic mathematical model for the substance abuse and drug-related crime syndemic, evaluate the threshold number and use sensitivity analysis to analyze the model. Secondly, a dynamic system, called the Substance Abuse and Drug-related Crime in theWestern Cape (SADC-WC) system is constructed using the STELLA in order to explore and classify the underlying relationships and structures within the substance abuse and drug-related crime system. Both the sensitivity analysis, and the simulations of the SADC-WC system indicate that an increase of successful convictions will have a significant influence on the syndemic, and promise to reduce drug-related crime cases. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : In hierdie studie ondersoek on die syndemie (‘syndemic’) van dwelmmisbruik en dwelmverwante misdaad in die Wes-Kaap provinsie, in Suid-Afrika. Die moontlikhede wat sistemiese denke en dinamiese sisteme inhou vir sosiale en gesondheid kwale in ’n diverse en komplekse omgewing soos Suid-Afrika, word ondersoek. Hierdie studie waag interdisiplinêre werk tussen Epidemiologie, Biowiskunde en Dinamiese sisteme, met die hoop om navorsers van verskillende velde aan te moedig om saam te werk om die plaag van dwelmmisbruik en dwelm-verwante misdaad in Suid-Afrika te bekamp. Dwelmmisbruik en die gepaardgaande gesondheid en maatskaplike gevare soos dwelmverwante misdaad is ’n groot probleem in dieWes-Kaap. Die SAPD se vermelde dwelmverwante midaad het ’n groei van 311,5% ondergaan in die afgelope dekade, en is aanduidend vir hoe die beheer en beperking van dwelmmisbruik en dwelm-verwante misdaad in die Wes-Kaap provinsie bevordering van beide die veiligheid en ontwikkeling van die gemeenskap sal verseker. Dit beklemtoon hoe die vermindering van dwelmmisbruik en dwelm-verwante misdaad in dieWes-Kaapland, sal ’n elikser vir die veiligheid en ontwikkeling van die gemeenskappe. Die stryd teen dwelmmisbruik is gedryf deur ’n multi-sektorale benadering waarby verskeie regeringsdepartemente, nie-regerings organisasies en gemeenskappe. Stelsels denke en dinamiese sisteme is gebasseur op die aanname, dat die wÃłreld is sistemiese en dat verskynsels verstaan word ten opsigte van die ontluikende eienskap van die omvattende geheel. Eerstens stel ons ’n kompartementele model op wat deur nie-liniêre gewone differensiële vergelykings beskryf kan word vir die dwelmmisbruik en dwelm-verwante misdaad epidemies. Ons evalueer die drumpel getal en gebruik sensitiwiteitsanalise om die parameters van die model te analiseer. Tweedens, is ’n dinamiese sisteem genaamd die Middelmisbruik en dwelmverwante misdaad in dieWes-Kaap (SADC-WC) stelsel gebou met behulp van die STELLA platform om te verken en klassifiseer die onderliggende verhoudings en strukture binne die dwelmmisbruik en dwelm-verwante misdaad stelsel. Beide die sensitiwiteitsanalise, en die simulasies van die SADC-WC stelsel dui aan dat ’n toename in suksesvolle vonisse ’n beduidende invloed op die epidemies sal hê; en beloof om sake van dwelmverwante misdaad te verminder.

This study is focused on characterization of the hardrock environment in surroundings of Sazava river. It is based on the archival data of groundwater table in boreholes, results of pumping tests from Geofond database and topographic data (DMR , watercourse, etc.). ArcMap 10.1 and Excel were used for data processing. The relations between the groundwater table depth, water table gradient, specific yield, transmissivity and variety of topographic parameters (distance from a watercourse, elevation, relative elevation above the nearest watercourse, the terrain gradient, etc.) were studied. Close linear relationship exists between the gradient of the terrain and groundwater table (rxy 0.96) in the study area. Groundwater table gradient is on average 88 % of terrain gradient. Mean groundwater table gradient is 10 % (6). The average transmissivity in the area is 1.27 x 10-4 m2 /s, specific yield is usually between 0.01 and 0.1 l/s m. This corresponds to the low and very low transmissivity class. Variability of transmisivity values is high. The difference between transmisivity in discharge and recharge zone, assumed by previous authors, was not confirmed in the study area. Specific base flow calculated from mean transmissivity, terrain/ water table gradient and river network density based on Krásný and...

Entidades humanitárias, organizações privadas e governos atuam constantemente no atendimento a vítimas de desastres que aumentam continuamente e atingem milhares de pessoas todos os anos. O objetivo da presente pesquisa é analisar os mecanismos de coordenação e as formas de colaboração na cadeia de suprimentos humanitária. Para tanto, foi realizado o levantamento e análise do referencial teórico para se permitir a caracterização dos cenários de desastres; a identificação e compreensão dos desafios de gerenciamento da cadeia de suprimentos humanitária; a identificação dos indicadores de desempenho inerentes à gestão desta cadeia específica; os mecanismos de colaboração existentes e utilizados; e a importância de simuladores organizacionais para análise da tomada de decisão e dos jogos de empresa para vivências. A partir da análise do referencial teórico, foi desenvolvido um esquema conceitual simplificado dos mecanismos de coordenação descentralizado e centralizado, incluindo a análise dos stakeholders envolvidos (agentes humanitários locais, agentes humanitários coordenadores, beneficiários e prestadores de serviço de armazenagem, transporte e aquisição), das decisões tomadas por cada um, das etapas logísticas e dos indicadores importantes para garantir o atendimento dos beneficiários. A partir do desenvolvimento do esquema conceitual simplificado dos mecanismos de coordenação, foi desenvolvido um modelo conceitual de simulador logístico humanitário, tendo como objetivo permitir a análise das operações logísticas em cenários de desastres e para servir como base para desenvolvimento futuro de um simulador matemático para análise da tomada de decisão. Por fim, foi desenvolvida uma proposta de jogo logístico humanitário para permitir a vivência da tomada de decisão em cenários de desastres. Para validação do esquema conceitual simplificado, do modelo conceitual de simulador e da proposta de jogo humanitário, estes foram aplicados a dois estudos de caso relacionados ao combate à fome na África (UNICEF Plumpy\'Nuts) e no Brasil (Bancos de Alimentos). / Humanitarian entities, private organizations and governments operate constantly to attempt victims of disasters, that increases continuously and affect thousands of people every year. The objective of this research is to analyze the coordination mechanisms and modes of cooperation in the humanitarian supply chain. For this purpose, a survey and an analysis of the theoretical framework were performed to characterize scenarios of disasters, an identification and understanding of the management challenges on a humanitarian supply chain, an identification of performance indicators related to the management of this particular chain, mechanisms available and organizational collaboration used, besides the importance of simulators and business games to analyze decision making and to experiences. With this analysis, a simplified conceptual draft of decentralized and centralized coordination mechanisms was developed, including an analyses of the stakeholders involved (local humanitarian agents, coordination of humanitarian agents, beneficiaries, along with providers of warehousing, transport and acquisition), the decisions for which each one, logistics steps and main performance indicators to guarantee the aid to beneficiaries. As from a simplified conceptual scheme of coordination mechanisms, a conceptual model of humanitarian logistics simulator was developed to analyze logistic operations in disaster scenarios and to use as a base to the future development of a mathematic simulator to decision-making analysis. Lastly, a proposal of a humanitarian logistics game was developed to allow experiences in disaster scenarios. For validating the simplified conceptual scheme, the conceptual model of a simulator and the proposal of a humanitarian logistic game, it was applied to two case studies regarding fighting hunger in Africa (UNICEF Plumpy\'Nuts) and in Brazil (Bancos de Alimentos).

A globalização da economia, com a queda das barreiras comerciais e a abertura dos mercados nacionais, tem produzido forte impacto nas estruturas de produção locais gerando ameaças e oportunidades para as pequenas e médias empresas, exigindo destas uma estratégia para inserção na nova economia. O fenômeno da localização, com o surgimento de aglomerações de empresas de um mesmo setor de especialização, os chamados arranjos produtivos locais, tem propiciado às pequenas e médias empresas uma importante estratégia de sobrevivência e de inserção no mercado globalizado. Existem na literatura diversos estudos sobre arranjos produtivos locais. Parte significativa dos estudos empíricos sobre o tema focam, com base em análise quantitativa (grau de especialização regional, índice de concentração em setores industriais, numero de empregados no setor etc.), no potencial de uma aglomeração empresarial de um setor, em uma região específica, de se tornar um arranjo produtivo. Em contraste, existem poucos estudos que busquem compreender a natureza do fenômeno, identificando seus principais fatores direcionadores, as inter-relações entre eles, seus padrões e sua dinâmica de desenvolvimento e de como os agentes locais podem planejar e realizar sua gestão. Existe, portanto, a necessidade de se aprofundar estudos que eliminem essas deficiências e que permitam a construção de um modelo conceitual que contribua para o desenvolvimento e a consolidação dos arranjos produtivos locais. Este é o objetivo do presente trabalho, realizar uma pesquisa exploratória qualitativa que com base em revisão teórica e entrevistas com gestores de arranjos produtivos, aprofunde os conhecimentos do fenômeno dos arranjos produtivos buscando identificar os fatores determinantes para o seu surgimento e para sua dinâmica de desenvolvimento. A partir desses conhecimentos construir um modelo conceitual que permita sistematizar os processos de planejamento, aprendizado, implementação e de gestão, enfim, contribua para o desenvolvimento e a consolidação de arranjos produtivos locais emergentes. / The globalization of the economy, the progressive elimination of barriers to trade and the opening of national markets, have produced a strong impact on the local production structures, carrying out threats and opportunities to small and medium companies demanding of them an strategy that insert them in the new economy. The emerge of conglomeration of companies of the same sector of specialization, so called local productive arrangements, has propitiate to the small and medium companies an important insertion strategy in the global market. Indeed, this kind of industrial/regional organization has become an important piece in the implementation of industrial, regional and technological policies to respond to increasingly open markets. There are in the literature many studies on local productive arrangements. Accordingly, a significant part of empirical studies on this subject has been focused on the potential of a sector, in a specific region, to become a local productive arrangement based on quantitative analysis (regional specialization, index of concentration in industrial sectors, number of employees in sector etc.). In contrast, there are few studies that try to understand the nature of the phenomena, its startup?s main drivers factors, the pattern of development of these arrangements and how the local stakeholders could plan and manager them. Taking this into account, it is necessary to develop conceptual models that are able to overcome this deficiency. A combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis is therefore appropriate to identify the most competitive industries and their internal interrelationships. Qualitative analysis such as interviews with local leaders for instance are required to understand interactions and relationships identified through quantitative tools. Beyond the actual findings obtained, analysis can also help identify the most suitable policy targets as well as benchmarks for the evaluation of subsequent arrangement?s plan and management of its performance. This is the aim of this paper, an exploratory research based on theory review, case studies and interviews with local stakeholders propose a conceptual model to plan and to manager the phenomena of local productive arrangements. The greatest benefit of the conceptual model is thus its capacity to give regional economic development policy and sometimes fragmented organizations and plan areas a unifying focus.