The complexity of the strategic decision making environments, in which busi- nesses and governments live in, makes such decisions more and more difficult to make. People and organizations with access to the best known decision support modelling and analysis tools and methods cannot seem to benefit from such re- sources. We argue that the reason behind the failure of most current decision and game theoretic methods is that these methods are made to deal with operational and tactical decisions, not strategic decisions. While operational and tactical decisions are clear and concise with limited scope and short-term implications, allowing them to be easily formalized and reasoned about, strategic decisions tend to be more gen- eral, ill-structured, complex, with broader scope and long-term implications. This research work starts with a review of the current dominant modelling and analysis approaches, their strengths and shortcomings, and a look at how pioneers in the field criticize these approaches as restrictive and unpractical. Then, the work goes on to propose a new paradigm shift in how strategic decisions and conflicts should be modelled and analyzed. Constrained Rationality is a formal qualitative framework, with a robust method- ological approach, to model and analyze ill-structured strategic single and multi- agent decision making situations and conflicts. The framework brings back the strategic decision making problem to its roots, from being an optimization/efficiency problem about evaluating predetermined alternatives to satisfy predetermined pref- erences or utility functions, as most current decision and game theoretic approaches treats it, to being an effectiveness problem of: 1) identifying and modelling explic- itly the strategic and conflicting goals of the involved agents (also called players and decision makers in our work), and the decision making context (the external and internal constraints including the agents priorities, emotions and attitudes); 2) finding, uncovering and/or creating the right set of alternatives to consider; and then 3) reasoning about the ability of each of these alternatives to satisfy the stated strategic goals the agents have, given their constraints. Instead of assuming that the agents’ alternatives and preferences are well-known, as most current decision and game theoretic approaches do, the Constrained Rationality framework start by capturing and modelling clearly the context of the strategic decision making situation, and then use this contextual knowledge to guide the process of finding the agents’ alternatives, analyzing them, and choosing the most effective one. The Constrained Rationality framework, at its heart, provides a novel set of modelling facilities to capture the contextual knowledge of the decision making sit- uations. These modelling facilities are based on the Viewpoint-based Value-Driven - Enterprise Knowledge Management (ViVD-EKM) conceptual modelling frame- work proposed by Al-Shawa (2006b), and include facilities: to capture and model the goals and constraints of the different involved agents, in the decision making situation, in complex graphs within viewpoint models; and to model the complex cause-effect interrelationships among theses goals and constraints. The framework provides a set of robust, extensible and formal Goal-to-Goal and Constraint-to Goal relationships, through which qualitative linguistic value labels about the goals’ op- erationalization, achievement and prevention propagate these relationships until they are finalized to reflect the state of the goals’ achievement at any single point of time during the situation. The framework provides also sufficient, but extensible, representation facilities to model the agents’ priorities, emotional valences and attitudes as value properties with qualitative linguistic value labels. All of these goals and constraints, and the value labels of their respective value properties (operationalization, achievement, prevention, importance, emotional valence, etc.) are used to evaluate the different alternatives (options, plans, products, product/design features, etc.) agents have, and generate cardinal and ordinal preferences for the agents over their respective alternatives. For analysts, and decision makers alike, these preferences can easily be verified, validates and traced back to how much each of these alternatives con- tribute to each agent’s strategic goals, given his constraints, priorities, emotions and attitudes. The Constrained Rationality framework offers a detailed process to model and analyze decision making situations, with special paths and steps to satisfy the spe- cific needs of: 1) single-agent decision making situations, or multi-agent situations in which agents act in an individualistic manner with no regard to others’ current or future options and decisions; 2) collaborative multi-agent decision making situ- ations, where agents disclose their goals and constraints, and choose from a set of shared alternatives one that best satisfy the collective goals of the group; and 3) adversarial competitive multi-agent decision making situations (called Games, in gamete theory literature, or Conflicts, in the broader management science litera- ture). The framework’s modelling and analysis process covers also three types of con- flicts/games: a) non-cooperative games, where agents can take unilateral moves among the game’s states; b) cooperative games, with no coalitions allowed, where agents still act individually (not as groups/coalitions) taking both unilateral moves and cooperative single-step moves when it benefit them; and c) cooperative games, with coalitions allowed, where the games include, in addition to individual agents, agents who are grouped in formal alliances/coalitions, giving themselves the ability to take multi-step group moves to advance their collective position in the game. ....

The economic dimension of conflicts has enjoyed increasing attention in research dealing with the dynamics of contemporary conflict. The nexus between natural resources, economics and conflict has played a defining role in a number of Africa’s most intractable conflicts during the 1990s and early 2000s. The underlying assumption of this study is that the economic dimension of conflict can be hugely informative in terms of an understanding as to why peace agreements fail and in that sense can contribute to the resolution of conflicts if taken into account during the formulation of peace agreements. This study explores the ways in which conflict theory has dealt with the conflict-economics nexus, analyzing the extent to which theory illuminates the conflict reality in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) during the period August 1998 to August 2004. It determines to what degree peace agreements in the DRC have taken the economic dimension and insights gained from the academic exploration of this topic into account during the negotiation and formulation of these agreements. In conclusion the study proposes a number of recommendations in terms of the peace process in the DRC with possible wider application for other peace agreements. / Dissertation (MA (International Relations))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Political Sciences / unrestricted

Sustainable development (SD) in conflict analysis is rarely considered, given that older theories mainly inform conflict analysis. This research set out to establish the potential influence of combining Strategic Sustainable Development (SSD) and conflict analysis. The current situation and possible influence were assessed through the primary data source, which constituted practitioners and researchers in international political conflict analysis. That was then compared to existing data on both conflict analysis and SSD. It was evident that some aspects of sustainability are already present in current conflict analysis tools but highlighted either social or ecological components. The complexity of conflict was clearly identified due to its cyclical nature and the different stakeholders involved. A need for an analysis tool combining complexity and a sustainability perspective was seen. It was argued that power dynamics in conflict analysis and the applicability of conflict analysis frameworks must be considered. Our findings indicate a place for SSD in conflict analysis, which translates into multiple application modes (e.g., root cause identification). There is a need for further research on how these two fields can complement each other and how to represent the interconnection into a practical conflict analysis tool.

The aim of this thesis is to contribute to theoretically sound concept of Peace Journalism, which combines theoretical foundations from two spheres: conflict and peace studies and media studies. Influence of journalists as intervening force and explaining factor with regard to (violent) conflict is neglected. However, Peace Journalism is not theoretically strong and builds upon dualistic definition vis-á-vis so-called War Journalism. The concept of Peace Journalism has to overcome this delamination in order to reflect theoretical underpinnings of conflict transformation theory and conflict analysis. Moreover, Peace Journalism has to differentiate media according to an involvement of given societies in a conflict. This offers an opportunity to specifically and accurately analyse news coverage of conflicts. Case studies analysing Czech coverage of Cyprus and Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts illustrates this approach. The coverage is essentially flat, distorts a reality of the conflict, pays attention to visual and physical aspects of the conflict and closes the conflicts in arbitrary time boundaries.

In today’s ever-fluctuating global economy, it is necessary for companies to occasionally engage in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) practices in order to expand both their domestic and international markets, achieve financial gain and competitive advantage, and consolidate and enter new markets. United States companies, along with businesses worldwide, are now adhering to M&A strategies; in fact, the majority of the worldwide commercial sector has most likely encountered and been affected by the M&A process. Although there is increasing popularity of M&A in the international business arena, only a limited number of transactions have actually met business expectations, as the majority of M&As have been aborted due to unmet challenges during or after the negotiations. The purpose of this qualitative study was to examine how some key U.S. companies manage their complex M&A negotiation processes to facilitate success. A multi-case literal replication study was conducted using archival records, documents, dissertations, articles, news stories, archival interviews from the companies’ experts, and M&A scholars to examine each case individually and determine the similarities and differences among the selected cases. The main reason for exploring this topic is the belief that the dynamics of the negotiation process can significantly influence the success of the M&A process, particularly with regard to the strategic intent of the consolidation, the monetary terms as well as the incentives to existing stockholders, the decisions on future leadership, and the culture integration challenge.

Spikes of militancy, intolerance, ethnic division and sectarianism have all risen within Pakistan in recent years, yet Pakistan’s continuous battle to deter violent extremism fails to be successful. Following the December 16, 2014 Army Public School (APS) massacre in Peshawar Pakistan little empirical attention has been paid on how the Pakistani government, in the Northwest region of Pakistan, is countering violent extremism (CVE). As well as, its link to policy-making decisions on CVE. This dissertation study sought to analyze the currently active CVE narrative that Pakistan implemented into its Constitution in 2014. This qualitative explanatory case study project focused on operational links that could be traced over time. A content analysis of secondary sources of Pakistani political briefings and press conferences relating to the Pakistani 21st amendment was carried out to identify important themes that emerged. The qualitative analysis of the data generated five themes: (1) word-based agency, (2) knowledge & governance, (3) accountability, (4) closure, and (5) deontic orientation. To assist in addressing the research question, a critical holistic historical qualitative case study analysis was preferred because of its unique strength in incorporating various sources of evidence. Several suggestions of the findings are discussed. These include suggestions for practice and theory, bench-marking of the 21st amendment, and the inclusion of stakeholders in the CVE process.

No description available.

Tesis por compendio / [EN] Social impact assessment (SIA) is a part of environmental impact assessment (EIA), which is characterized by a high level of uncertainty and the subjective aspects that are presents in the methods used during its conduction. In addition, environmental conflict analysis (ECA) has become a key factor for the viability of projects and welfare of affected populations. In this thesis, an integrated method for SIA and ECA is proposed, by the combination of the grey clustering method and the entropy-weight method. SIA was performed using the grey clustering method, which enables qualitative information coming from a stakeholder group to be quantified. In turn, ECA was performed using the entropy-weight method, which identifies the criteria in which there is greater divergence between stakeholder groups, thus enabling to establish measures to prevent potential environmental conflicts. Then, in order to apply and test the proposed integrated method, two case studies were conducted. The first case study was a mining project in northern Peru. In this study, three stakeholder groups and seven criteria were identified. The results revealed that for the urban population group and the rural population group, the project would have a positive and negative social impact, respectively. For the group of specialists the project would have a normal social impact. It was also noted that the criteria most likely to generate environmental conflicts in order of importance were: access to drinking water, poverty, GDP per capita, and employment. The second case study considered was a hydrocarbon exploration project located in the Gulf of Valencia, Spain. In this study, four stakeholder groups and four criteria were identified. The results revealed that for the group of specialists the project would have a negative social impact, and contrary perceptions were shown between the group of those directly affected by the project and the group of citizens in favour. It was also noted that the criteria most likely to generate environmental conflict were the percentage of unemployment and GDP per capita. The proposed integrated method in this thesis showed great potential on the studied cases, and could be applied to other contexts and other projects, such as water resources management, industrial projects, construction projects, and to measure social impact and prevent conflicts during the implementation of government policies and programs. / [ES] La evaluación del impacto social (SIA) forma parte de la evaluación de impacto ambiental (EIA), y está caracterizada por su alto nivel de incertidumbre, y por los aspectos subjetivos presentes en los métodos usados para su realización. Por otro lado, el análisis del conflicto ambiental (ECA) se ha convertido en un factor clave para la viabilidad de los proyectos y el bienestar de la población afectada. En esta tesis, se propone un método integrado para la SIA y el ECA, mediante la combinación de los métodos grey clustering y entropy-weight. La SIA fue desarrollada usando el método grey clustering, el cual permite cuantificar la información cualitativa recogida de los grupos de interés o stakeholders. Sucesivamente, el ECA fue realizado usando el método entropy-weight, el cual identifica los criterios en los cuales existe gran divergencia entre los grupos de interés, permitiendo así establecer medidas para prevenir potenciales conflictos ambientales. Luego, con el fin de aplicar y testear el método integrado propuesto fueron realizados dos casos de estudio. El primer caso de estudio fue un proyecto minero ubicado en el norte de Perú. En este estudio se identificaron tres grupos de interés y siete criterios. Los resultados revelaron que para el grupo población urbana y el grupo población rural, el proyecto tendría un impacto social positivo y negativo, respectivamente. Para el grupo de los especialistas el proyecto tendría un impacto social normal. También fue notado que los criterios más probables de generar conflicto ambiental en orden de importancia fueron: acceso al agua potable, pobreza, PIB per cápita, y empleo. El segundo caso de estudio considerado fue un proyecto de exploración de hidrocarburos ubicado en el Golfo de Valencia, España. En este estudio se identificaron cuatro grupos de interés y cuatro criterios. Los resultados revelaron que para el grupo de los especialistas el proyecto tendría un impacto social negativo, y contrarias percepciones se encontraron entre el grupo de los directamente afectados y el grupo de los ciudadanos a favor. También fue notado que los criterios más probables de generar conflicto ambiental fueron el porcentaje de desempleo y el PIB per cápita. El método integrado propuesto en esta tesis mostró un gran potencial sobre los casos estudiados, y podría ser aplicado a otros contextos y otros tipos de proyectos, tales como gestión de recursos hídricos, proyectos industriales, proyectos de construcción de obras públicas, y para medir el impacto social y prevenir conflictos durante la aplicación de políticas y programas gubernamentales. / [CA] L'avaluació de l'impacte social (SIA) és una part de l'avaluació de l'impacte ambiental (EIA), la qual està caracteritzada pel seu alt nivell d'incertitud i els aspectes subjectius presents en els mètodes amprats durant la seua conducció. A més, la anàlisis del conflicte ambiental (ECA) s'ha convertit en un factor clau per a la viabilitat dels projectes i el benestar de la població afectada. En esta tesis es proposa un mètode integrat per a l'avaluació de l'impacte social i la anàlisis del conflicte ambiental, mitjançant la combinació del mètode grey clustering i el mètode entropy-weight. L'avaluació de l'impacte social ha segut realitzada usant el mètode grey clustering, el qual permet que la informació qualitativa arreplegada dels grups d'interès siga quantificada. Successivament, la anàlisis del conflicte ambiental ha segut realitzada usant el mètode entropy-weight, el qual identifica els criteris en els quals existeix gran divergència entre els grups d'interès, la qual cosa permet establir mides per a prevenir conflictes ambientals potencials. Després, amb la finalitat d'aplicar i testejar el mètode integrat proposat han segut realitzats dos casos d'estudi. El primer d'ells ha segut un projecte miner al nord de Perú. En aquest estudi, tres grups d'interès i set criteris foren identificats. Els resultats revelaren que per al grup població-urbana i el grup població-rural, el projecte experimentaria un positiu i un negatiu impacte social respectivament. Per al grup dels especialistes el projecte tindria un impacte social normal. Per altra banda també va ser reconegut que els criteris més probables de generar conflicte ambiental en orde d'importància foren: accés a l'aigua potable, pobresa, PIB per càpita, i ofici. El segon cas d'estudi considerat va ser un projecte d'exploració d'hidrocarburs ubicat al Golf de València, Espanya. En este estudi, quatre grups d'interès i quatre criteris foren identificats. Els resultats revelaren que per al grup dels especialistes el projecte tindria un impacte social negatiu, mentre que entre el grup dels directament afectats i el grup dels ciutadans a favor es mostraren percepcions contraries. Va ser també reconegut que els criteris més probables de generar conflicte ambiental foren el percentatge de desocupació i el PIB per càpita. El mètode integrat proposat en aquesta tesis mostra un gran potencial sobre els casos estudiats, i pot ser aplicat a altres contexts i altres tipus de projectes com gestió de recursos hídrics, projectes industrials i projectes de construcció d'obres públiques. A més pot fer-se servir per mesurar l'impacte social i prevenir conflictes durant l'aplicació de polítiques i programes governamentals. / Delgado Villanueva, KA. (2016). Methodological proposal for social impact assessment and environmental conflict analysis [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/64063 / Compendio

Many of the most destructive natural disasters have taken place in situations characterized by armed conflict and insecurity: the Indian Ocean tsunami in Sri Lanka and Indonesia in 2004, the floods in Pakistan in 2011, the drought in Somalia in 2011 and typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in 2013. Surprisingly little research has systematically explored how armed conflict affects natural disaster management, and how shocks from natural disaster influence conflict dynamics. This dissertation addresses these gaps by providing a qualitative and disaggregated analysis of the micro-dynamics underpinning the relationship between armed conflict, natural disasters and cooperation. It asks: what is the relationship between natural disasters and processes of conflict and cooperation in countries affected by civil conflict? To explore this question, the dissertation offers four essays that explore different facets of this relationship, focusing on the rebel group. Examining collaboration between rebel group and humanitarian actors during disaster relief efforts in the Philippines, essay I finds that rebel group behavior after a natural disaster is shaped by the level of hostility between combatant parties and the nature of the ties with the local population. Exploring the effect of natural disasters on conflict dynamics in the case of the Philippines, essay II suggests that natural disasters hinder rebel group recruitment tactics, by increasing hardship for rebel combatants and supporters, by weakening the rebel group’s organizational structure and supply lines, and by leading to a loss of territorial control. Based on a comparative case study between Colombia and the Philippines, essay III revisits ripeness theory and argues that the level of rebel group cohesion will help to predict whether or not rebel groups stay at the negotiation table until an agreement is reached. While a typhoon affected the Philippines during the negotiations, it did not “ripen” the peace talks. Finally, article IV explores pre-disaster evacuation across conflict-affected regions in the Philippines and India, and argues that both experience of previous disaster and the level of trust in government officials influence the likelihood of people evacuating. The dissertation has important implications for both disaster management and conflict resolution, and it calls for more dialogue between both disciplines.

The research investigates in what extent and how communication for meeting feelings is provided in Truth Commission work. It examines if and in what way feelings are addressed in the communication officially published by the Truth Commissions in East Timor, Ghana and Sri Lanka, occurring between 2002-2011. The research is also looking at the healing processes in a time perspective to find out if there is a communication for Societal healing to be continued in a longer term. My conclusion is that two cases of three in my research, the TRCs in Ghana and East Timor, have communication clearly directed to meet feelings caused by the war. One of the three cases (East Timor) has a communication with a clear ambition to heal over a longer period, to continue after the existence of the Truth Commission. The research suggests that communication with a clear ambition to reach out widely in the society, a communication directed to meet and process feelings over a longer period, can make Societal healing more effective. It also concludes that, in the future, Societal healing, as a field in conflict resolution, will be more based on representational media than today, provided through web communication.