A partir da década de 1970 inicia-se um processo de avanço das fronteiras agrícolas em direção às terras do Domínio Morfoclimático do Cerrado. Em virtude deste processo, a região sudoeste do estado de Goiás se desponta como uma das maiores produtoras de cereais do mundo. O Parque Nacional das Emas, criado em 1961, é uma das maiores Unidades de Conservação deste domínio de natureza e está localizado nesta mesma região, envolto por extensas propriedades rurais que se destinam às atividades agropecuárias intensivas. O processo de ocupação agrícola que se instalou na região, assim como em grande parte do Cerrado, é responsável pela conversão de vegetação nativa em campos agropecuários. No entanto, verificou-se que esta ocupação apresenta relações intrínsecas com os atributos físicos da paisagem. Por outro, através desses mesmos atributos físicos constatou-se o papel desta Unidade de Conservação para a conservação de importantes elementos da paisagem que alcança influência, observando que sua função extrapola os limites de sua fronteira. Considerando a região das propriedades localizadas em seu entorno, buscou-se avaliar o seu potencial de conectividade deste Parque com as vegetações remanescentes ao seu redor. / From the 1970s began a process of expansion of farming land towards the Domain morphoclimatic Cerrado. Under this process, the southwest region of the state of Goiás is emerging as a major producer of cereals in the world. The Emas National Park, created in 1961, is one of the largest protected areas and nature of this domain is located in the same region, surrounded by extensive rural properties that are intended for intensive agricultural activities. The process of agricultural occupation who settled in the region, as well as in much of the Cerrado, is responsible for the conversion of native vegetation in agricultural fields. However, it was found that this occupation has intrinsic relationship with the physical attributes of the landscape. On the other, through those same physical attributes noted the role of this conservation area for the conservation of important landscape elements reaching influence, noting that its function beyond the limits of its border. Considering the area of the properties around it, we sought to evaluate the potential connectivity of this park with the remaining vegetation around.

The Central Limpopo River Valley elephant population is a cross border population on which very little scientific data pertaining to numbers, distribution and demographic status is available. The total range was determined using published literature, reports, postal questionnaires and interviews. Numbers and dry season distribution were determined by means of three total aerial counts in 2000, 2001 and 2004 of the sections of the total range in which elephants were reported. Totals of 1388, 1424 and 1339 were recorded with the highest numbers in all counts in the Botswana section of the study area. Four sub groups within the population were identified. Human settlements and the distribution of rivers and fencing appeared to be the major factors influencing distribution and movement. The population is highly mobile within the total range, and numbers fluctuate markedly in any given section, but numbers in the total range appear to have been increasing slowly at below 2% per annum and the range expanding slightly over the last 30 years. Additional range is being provided by the creation of a Trans Frontier Conservation Area. Movements were determined through ground observations within the study area and seem to follow the major rivers namely the Shashe, Ramokgwabane, Simukwe, Shashani, Tuli, Umzingwane and Limpopo rivers. The social and demographic status of the population was determined through ground observations as well as total aerial counts conducted within the Northern Tuli Game Reserve from 1976 to 2004. The study has shown that group sizes increase with an increase in rainfall (average mean group size of 56.524, SDE 77.388) and decrease during low rainfall periods (mean group size of 24.157, SDE 22.223). The age structure was determined from aerial photographs during August 2000 and showed a high percentage of adults and sub adults, with infants estimated at 3%. The approximate birth rate (1.5%) calculated for 2000 is balanced by an average natural mortality determined between 1999 and 2004 of 1.8%. The inter calf interval determined from known herds observed in the Northern Tuli Game Reserve was estimated at 3.94% and suggests that the long-term birth rate for the population should be higher than that for the year 2000. The difference between the combined natural and human induced mortality rates (~4%) and the birth rate suggested by the age structure and the inter calf interval (~6%) gives the ~2% long-term increase observed in the numbers. Human elephant interactions within the study area were determined through published literature and interviews with local residents. Elephants and humans interact in both a positive and negative manor and interactions are related to human land use practices within the area. Elephants were indicated as the major problem animal in farming areas, but the major draw card within tourism operations. / Dissertation (MSc (Wildlife Management))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Animal and Wildlife Sciences / unrestricted

Xestospongia muta, the giant barrel sponge, is a key component of coral reef benthic communities in Southeast Florida and the Caribbean. Xestospongia muta increases habitat complexity and stability, and filters large volumes of water, enhancing water quality and facilitating nutrient cycling. Therefore, it is important to investigate trends in the X. muta population on Southeast Florida reefs in response to anthropogenic stressors, changing environmental conditions and acute disturbances and how these events affect its ecological role in the benthic community. This study identified trends in X. muta population density, volume, and size class distribution over time and across reef habitats on the Southeast Florida Reef Tract (SEFRT). Density and volume changes were also investigated following acute physical disturbance caused by Hurricane Irma in September of 2017. Images and demographic data collected at 41 permanent sites from two long-term monitoring projects, The Southeast Florida Coral Reef Evaluation and Monitoring Project (SECREMP) and the Broward County Biological Monitoring Project (BC BIO), were used to evaluate the X. muta population trends. My analysis of the data from 2003 to 2018 shows that Xestospongia muta densities and volume increased over time regionally on the SEFRT and increased on the nearshore, middle, and outer reefs of the SEFRT. Xestospongia muta was found to be more abundant on the SEFRT compared to other locations including the Bahamas, the Florida Keys, Colombia, Belize and Saba. Highest mean density on the SEFRT was 0.35 individuals m-2 ±0.04 SEM, which was higher than the mean densities between 0.21 and 0.29 individuals m-2 at the Caribbean sites previously mentioned. Xestospongia muta individuals were categorized into size classes by volume to investigate density distribution of size classes on the SEFRT. Greater abundances in the smallest of five size classes (≤143.13 cm3) drove the increasing density trends. Despite the increasing trends from 2003 to 2017 with a peak in density and volume in 2017, Hurricane Irma caused a region-wide decline in population density and volume as well as a loss of individuals within the largest size class by volume (>17383.97 cm3). These results indicate that the X. muta population is exhibiting increasing long-term trends on the SEFRT, but also demonstrate that acute physical disturbances have a significant impact on the demographics of the population. Because of this sponge’s multiple roles in the reef communities, these trends have implications for structural complexity, nutrient cycling, water filtration, as well as carbon sequestration on the SEFRT.

In the Gulf Islands and Salish Sea Regions of British Columbia the Parks Canada Agency (PCA) currently operates Gulf Islands National Park Reserve (GINPR) and is in the development phase for the proposed Southern Strait of Georgia National Marine Conservation Area Reserve (SSGNMCAR). Protected areas such as these are meant to protect the ecological and cultural heritage of the region on behalf of all Canadians. As the government runs and expands their protected areas in the region it is important to look at their relationship with Indigenous communities in particular, as the PCA mandate requires the agency to work in “partnership” with Indigenous communities (Parks Canada 2017). The region is home to nearly 20 First Nations groups including the three W̱SÁNEĆ First Nations of the W̱SÁNEĆ Leadership Council (WLC). The WLC is an Indigenous government that has publicly stated their perception of a strained relationship with the PCA beginning before the formal establishment of GINPR in 2003. Through historical analysis; interviews with employees from the PCA and members of the W̱SÁNEĆ community; and a review of several aspects of site management and establishment in the region – this thesis explores the changing relationship between the PCA and W̱SÁNEĆ First Nations. Through this thesis I collect and discuss recommendations from W̱SÁNEĆ community members, and develop several myself, for the PCA to consider developing to improve the partnership between the two bodies. Potentially a partnership could lead towards formalized and lasting co-operative decision-making practice in the region’s cultural and natural heritage management. / Graduate

A seasonal groundwater model was developed to simulate fluxes and head distributions with periodic boundary conditions within the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area (SPRNCA) in southeastern Arizona. This model incorporated a seasonal approach for the period 1940-1995. Two years were used to simulate streamflow, 1990 and 1995. The model, as currently calibrated, does not accurately reproduce observed baseflow conditions in the San Pedro River and simulates an exaggerated effect of retiring irrigation within the SPRNCA. The model simulated increased baseflows while the observed baseflows declined at the USGS Charleston stream gage, though increases in baseflow contributions between Hereford Bridge and Lewis Springs have been reported. The original (Corell, et al., 1996) model and the seasonal transient model suffer from over- estimation of discharge from the floodplain aquifer to the San Pedro river, as well as errors in the seasonal transient model's simulation of riparian ET, and seasonal variations in stream conductance. These problems precluded the seasonal transient model from replicating the observed baseflows in the San Pedro river at the Charleston bridge, however, the results of the simulation are thought to be qualitatively indicative of changes in the flow system resulting from the retirement of irrigated agriculture in the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area. Possible sources for this problem include replacement of irrigation stresses by the expansion of cones of depression more distant from the river, overestimation of mountain front recharge, poor baseflow estimates and evapotransipration calculations from the stream gages at Charleston and Palominas, and the effects of a recently discovered silt -clay body that may dampen the speed of the rivers response to changes in stress. Additional efforts to re- calibrate the model, taking these areas into account, should provide better simulated baseflow values of the observed data.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this era of globalisation, the world is becoming more economically, politically and ecologically interdependent, that is, there is a growing mutual vulnerability between actors. The conditions of growing interdependence produce specific challenging circumstances for the achievement of particular goals, -includinq that of sustainable development. The Southern African context holds further obstacles to such development, which include poverty, inequality, a history of racial conflict and colonialism, and a regional economy on the semi-periphery of the global economy. It is my assertion that it is in the mutual self-interest of states and other stakeholders (e.g. communities) to approach this dilemma through transnational co-operation under the ethical umbrella of sustainable development. Thus this thesis seeks to discover to what extent the construction of Transborder Conservation Areas (TBCAs), relatively large areas which straddle the borders between two or more countries and cover natural systems incorporating one or more protected areas, can meet the criteria of sustainable development, given these conditions. The three primary criteria used for measuring sustainable development are community-based development; close linkages between the environment and development; and co-operation on all levels. The Kgalagadi TBCA, formally recognised on the 7th of April 1999 between South Africa and Botswana, serves as the case study. The conceptual framework used for the analysis is a theory of cooperation, as it applies to the field of International Relations. The key concepts employed here are those of interdependence, co-operation, sustainable development and institutionalisation. The research centers around three key issues: If sustainable development is the way forward for Southern Africa, do TBCAs reflect and fulfill the criteria as set forth by sustainable development? What does the experience of TBCAs in Southern Africa tell us about co-operation, recognising that TBCAs can only succeed if it has a sound base in the awareness and engagement of people? And, how best can decision-makers go about establishing TBCAs? Ultimately the thesis is a call to Southern African countries to embrace this new form of utilising the environment. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie era van globalisering is die wêreld besig om ekonomies, polities en ekologies meer interafhanklik te word, met ander woorde, daar is 'n toenemende wedersydse kwesbaarheid tussen akteurs. Toenemende interafhanklikheid produseer spesifieke uitdagings ten opsigte van die bereiking van sekere doelwitte, insluitend volgehoue ontwikkeling. Daar is besondere hindernisse op die weg na volgehoue ontwikkeling in Suidelike Afrika, is byvoorbeeld armoede, ongelykheid, en verlede gekenmerk deur rassekonflik en kolonialisme, asook en regionale ekonomie op die semi-periferie van die globale ekonomie. Dit is in die wedersydse belang van state en ander betrokke partye (bv. gemeenskappe) om hierdie dilemma te benader deur middel van transnasionale samewerking onder die etiese sambreel van volgehoue ontwikkeling. Hierdie tesis probeer vasstel tot watter mate die skep van Transnasionale Bewaringsgbiede, of sogenaamde "Vredesparke" (Transborder Conservation Areas = TBCAs), d.w.s. relatiewe groot areas aan weerskante van die grens(-e) tussen twee of meer lance en wat natuurlike stelsels dek wat ten minste een beskermde gebied inkorporeer, kan voldoen aan die kriteria vir volgehoue ontwikkeling, gegewe die bogenoemde konteks. Die drie primêre kriteria wat gebruik word om volgehoue ontwikkeling te meet is gemeenskapsgebaseerde ontwikkeling; die hegtheid van die verhouding tussen die omgewing en ontwikkeling; en samewerking op alle vlakke. Die Kgalagadi TBCA, amptelik op 7 April 1999 tussen Suid-Afrika en Botswana erken, dien as die gevallestudie. Die konseptueie raamwerk wat gebruik word in die analise is 'n teorie van samewerking, soos dit van toepassing is op die veld van Internasionale Betrekkinge. Die sleutelkonsepte wat gebruik word is interafhanklikheid, samewerking, volgehoue ontwikkeling en institusionalisering. Die navorsing sentreer rondom drie sleutelkwessies: lndien volgehoue ontwikkeling die weg vorentoe vir Suidelike Afrika is, weerspiëel en voldoen TBCAs aan die vereistes van volgehoue ontwikkeling? Wat kan ons wys raak oor samewerking na aanleiding van ons ervaring van TBCAs in Suidelike Afrika, gegewe dat TBCAs slegs kan slaag indien dit gefundeer is op gemeenskapsbewustheid- en deelname? Laastens, wat is die beste manier waarvolgens besluitnemers TBCAs kan vestig? Ten slotte is hierdie studie 'n beroep op die besluitnemers In Suidelike Afrika om hierdie nuwe wyse waarop die omgewing benut kan word, te ondersteun.

O presente trabalho avaliou não somente a abundância e densidade de mamíferos e aves cinegéticas na área do Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar (PESM), mas também identificou fatores que influenciaram a ocorrência e distribuição destas espécies. O PESM tem ao todo 3.150 km2 e é o maior remanescente de florestas contínuas de Mata Atlântica no Brasil. Foram percorridos 633,55 km em 15 trilhas distribuídas em três núcleos do setor norte do PESM. Foram obtidas 184 visualizações, tendo sido registradas 11 espécies de mamíferos e 6 espécies de aves cinegéticas durante os censos, num total de 77 encontros com mamíferos e 107 com aves. Dentre as aves cinegéticas com maior abundância destaca-se o jacu Penelope sp. (0,99 visualizações/10 km) e dentre os mamíferos o esquilo Sciurus aestuans (0,48 visualizações/10 km). As espécies apresentaram padrões diferenciados de uso do habitat, padrão de atividades e ocorrência nas áreas avaliadas. Através da análise de correspondência canônica (CCA) dos fatores ambientais foi possível determinar que de maneira geral as espécies de aves apresentamse correlacionadas com uma maior disponibilidade de frutos carnosos, enquanto que as espécies de mamíferos apresentam-se correlacionadas com parâmetros de estrutura física da floresta tais como cobertura de dossel, densidade arbórea e densidade de outras palmeiras que não o palmito, este último principalmente para o queixada (Tayassu pecari). A caça se mostrou um fator que afeta negativamente a maioria das espécies sendo que seu efeito somente não foi observado para S. aestuans e Penelope sp. que, ao que tudo indica, não são espécies intensamente caçadas nas áreas avaliadas. A partir das densidades obtidas foram realizadas estimativas populacionais para as áreas de estudo e extrapolações para todo o PESM. Considerando-se apenas 500 indivíduos como o número mínimo necessário de indivíduos para garantir a viabilidade destas populações foi possível perceber que as áreas estudadas, avaliadas separadamente, não seriam capazes de garantir a manutenção de boa parte das espécies. Quadro este agravado quando considerados valores ainda maiores de população mínima viável necessária. Contudo, para todos os cenários avaliados dados indicam que maiores seriam as chances de manutenção das espécies quando considerado todo o setor norte do parque, área formada pelos três núcleos avaliados, e principalmente o PESM como um todo. Este fat reforça a importância da conectividade entre estas áreas e a manutenção de grandes blocos de matas contínuas. O PESM pode ser considerado uma das mais importantes áreas para a preservação de espécies cinegéticas, sendo a área estratégica no contexto de criação de um corredor ecológico na região, devido principalmente a sua riqueza faunística, qualidade dos remanescentes existentes, presença de espécies raras e ameaçadas de extinção, localização biogeográfica e também por seu gradiente altitudinal. / The aim of this work was to estimate the abundance, diversity and population size of game birds and mammals from the rain forest at Serra do Mar State Park (Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar - PESM), and to identify the variables which influence the ocurrence and distribution of those species. The PESM has 3.150 km2 and is the major continuous remaining of Atlantic Forest in Brazil. A total of 633,55 km census using line transect method, distributed on 15 trails on the north-sector of PESM, resulted in 184 observations, which 77 of those were encounters with game mammals and 107 with birds. Eleven species of mammals and six of birds were recorded during the census. Among game birds the most abundant was the guan, Penelope spp. (0,99 encounters/10 km), and among the game mammals was the squirrel, Sciurus aestuans (0,48 encounters/10 km). The species presented different habitat uses, activity and ocurrence patterns, but when analysing the environmental variables with canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) we detected that the birds were correlated with fruit aviability, while mammals were more correlated to the vegetation structure, such as canopy cover, arboreal density and palms (not palmito) density, this last one specially to the whitelipped- peccaries (Tayassu pecari). The hunting pressure affected negatively most of the species, except for S. aestuans and Penelope spp., which seems to not be intensively hunted at the study areas. Using the densities obtained we estimated the remaining population to the study areas and also to the different scenarios proposed. Even considering only 500 as a minimum number of individuals necessary to guarantee the viability of those populations, the study areas, when analyzed separally, could not maintain most of the game species. It does get worst when considering higher numbers of minimum viable population. Moreover, the results indicate better chances of maintaining populations of the species when considering the area of the north-sector and higher chances when considering the entire park. This fact regards the importance of the connectivity between these areas and the necessity of maintaining large continuous block of forests. PESM can be considered one of the most important areas for the conservation of game species and it’s a strategic area in a context of an ecological corridor, due to it’s richness, quality of forest remains, presence of rare and threatened species, biogeographic localization and also by the altitudinal gradient.

Como uma das ações voltadas à restauração de Áreas de Preservação Permanente (APPs) degradadas do ribeirão Campestre em Saltinho-SP, o presente trabalho construiu, de forma participativa, e avaliou em campo indicadores de avaliação e monitoramento do Potencial de Auto-Recuperação (PAR) de 4 APPs em diferentes estágios de degradação. Inicialmente, por meio de entrevistas semi-estruturadas, exploramos e relacionamos alguns elementos constitutivos da Campesinidade e do Conhecimento Ecológico Local (CEL) dos agricultores interessados em restaurar suas próprias APPs. Os indicativos dessa relação sugerem que a construção de espaços que potencializem a contribuição do CEL em projetos de recuperação de APPs podem ser planejados de acordo com a campesinidade de cada grupo social envolvido. A contribuição do CEL foi levantada a partir da Representação Social dos agricultores participantes sobre sucessão secundária e foi orientada, por meio de um roteiro de entrevista, à construção de indicadores de avaliação e monitoramento do PAR de cada uma das áreas estudadas. Observamos por esta metodologia que o entendimento dos processos ecológicos e os indicadores propostos pelos agricultores guardam correspondência com conhecimento acumulado pela academia. Avaliamos em campo os 7 indicadores sugeridos pelos agricultores que mais se relacionavam à literatura correspondente. Destes indicadores destacaram-se: a) distância e estado de conservação dos fragmentos próximos; b) avifauna; c) umidade relativa do solo e; d) regeneração natural, por representarem melhor o PAR de cada área estudada. Por fim, avaliamos 4 diferentes intervenções, idealizadas pelos agricultores participantes em suas próprias APPs, com propósito de acelerar o processo de restauração ecológica e observamos que, as intervenções dos agricultores de maior campesinidade e, portanto, de maior CEL, apresentaram melhores resultados. / As one the actions aimed to the recovery of degraded Permanent Preservation Areas (PPA's) in Ribeirão Campestre, Saltinho, this dissertation built a mean, participatively, and assessed, in the field, evaluating indicators and the monitoring of the Potential of Self-Recovery (PSR) of 4 PPA's in different stages of degradation. Initially, by means of semi-structured interviews, some constitutive elements of Peasantry and of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK) of agriculture workers interested in restore their own PPA's were explored. The indicators of such relation suggest that the construction of spaces to potentialize the contribution of LEK in projects aiming the recovering of PPA's may be planned according to the Peasantry of each social group involved. LEK contribution was raised from the Social Representation of participating agriculture workers over secondary succession and was guided, through a script of interview, to the construction of evaluating indicators and monitoring of PSR of each area analyzed/studied. Through this methodology, it was observed that the understanding of ecological processes and the indicators proposed by the agriculture workers have correspondence with the Knowledge added by Academy. It was evaluated, in field, 7 indicators proposed by the agriculture workers that were most related to the correspondent literature. Among these indicators, the following ones are highlighted: a) distance and state of conservation of close fragments; b) avifauna; c) relative humidity of the soil and; d) natural regeneration, for it best represents the PSR of each area analyzed/studied. Finally, 4 different interventions were evaluated, idealized by the participating agriculture workers on their own ppa's, aiming to speed-up the process of ecological restoration and it was observed that the interventions of the agriculture workers with highest level of Peasantry, thus highest LEK, presented better results.

Die Landschaften Mitteleuropas sind das Resultat einer langwierigen Geschichte menschlicher Landnutzung mit ihren unterschiedlichen, z.T. konkurrierenden Nutzungsansprüchen. Durch eine überwiegend intensive Beanspruchung haben die direkten und indirekten Auswirkungen der Landnutzung in vielen Fällen zu Umweltproblemen geführt. Die Disziplin der Landschaftsökologie hat es sich zur Aufgabe gemacht, Konzepte für eine nachhaltige Nutzung der Landschaft zu entwickeln. Eine wichtige Fragestellung stellt dabei die Abschätzung der möglichen Folgen von Landnutzungsänderungen dar.<br /> Für die Analyse der relevanten Prozesse in der Landschaft werden häufig mathematische Modelle eingesetzt, welche es erlauben die Landschaft unter aktuellen Verhältnissen oder hinsichtlich veränderter Rahmenbedingungen zu untersuchen. Die hypothetische Änderung der Landnutzung, die als Landnutzungsszenario bezeichnet wird, verkörpert eine wesentliche Modifikation der Rahmenbedingungen, weil Landnutzung maßgeblich Einfluss auf die natürlichen Prozesse der Landschaft nimmt. Während die Antriebskräfte einer solchen Änderung überwiegend von sozio-ökonomischen und politischen Entscheidungen gesteuert werden, orientiert sich die exakte Verortung der Landnutzungsänderungen an den naturräumlichen Bedingungen und folgt z.T. erkennbaren Regeln. Anhand dieser Vorgaben ist es möglich, räumlich explizite Landnutzungsszenarien zu entwickeln, die als Eingangsdaten für die Modellierung verschiedener landschaftsökologischer Fragestellungen wie z.B. für die Untersuchung des Einflusses der Landnutzung auf den Wasserhaushalt, die Erosionsgefahr oder die Habitatqualität dienen können. <br /> <br /> Im Rahmen dieser Dissertation wurde das rasterbasierte deterministische Allokationsmodell luck (Land Use Change Scenario Kit) für die explizite Verortung der Landnutzungsänderungen entwickelt. Es basiert auf den in der Landschaftsökologie üblichen räumlichen Daten wie Landnutzung, Boden sowie Topographie und richtet sich bei der Szenarienableitung nach den Leitbildern der Landschaftsplanung. Das Modell fußt auf der Hypothese, dass das Landnutzungsmuster als Funktion seiner landschaftsökologischen Faktoren beschrieben werden kann. Das Veränderungspotenzial einer Landnutzungseinheit resultiert im Modell aus einer Kombination der Bewertung der relativen Eignung des Standortes für die jeweilige Landnutzung und der Berücksichtigung von Standorteigenschaften der umliegenden Nachbarn. Die Durchführung der Landnutzungsänderung im Modell ist iterativ angelegt, um den graduellen Prozess des Landschaftswandels nachvollziehen zu können.<br /> Als Fallbeispiel für die Anwendung solcher räumlich expliziten Landnutzungsszenarien dient die Fragestellung, inwieweit Landnutzungsänderungen die Hochwasserentstehung beeinflussen. Um den Einfluss auf die Hochwasserentstehung für jede der Landnutzungskategorien &ndash; bebaute, landwirtschaftlich genutzte und naturnahe Flächen &ndash; abschätzen zu können, wird im Landnutzungsmodell luck exemplarisch für jede Kategorie ein Teilmodell für die Veränderung von Landnutzung angeboten: <br /> 1) Ausdehnung der Siedlungsfläche: Dieses Teilmodell fußt auf der Annahme, dass sich Siedlungen nur in direkter Nachbarschaft bereits bestehender Bebauung und bevorzugt entlang von Entwicklungsachsen ausbreiten. Steile Hangneigungen stellen für potenzielle Standorte ein Hemmnis bei der Ausbreitung dar. <br /> 2) Stilllegung von Grenzertragsackerflächen: Gemäß der Hypothese, dass sich die Stilllegung von Ackerflächen an der potenziellen Ertragsleistung der Standorte orientiert, werden in diesem Teilmodell alle Ackerstandorte dahingehend bewertet und die Flächen mit der geringsten Leistungsfähigkeit stillgelegt. Bei homogenen Gebietseigenschaften werden die Stilllegungsflächen zufällig auf die Ackerfläche verteilt.<br /> 3) Etablierung von Schutzgebieten in Ufer- und Auenbereichen: Ausgehend von der These, dass sich entlang von Flüssen sensible Flächen befinden, deren Schutz positive Folgen für das Leistungsvermögen der Landschaft haben kann, werden in diesem Teilmodell schützenswerte Ufer- und Auenbereiche auf derzeit landwirtschaftlich genutzten Flächen ausgewiesen. Die Größe der Schutzgebietsfläche orientiert sich an der Morphologie der umgebenden Landschaft.<br /> <br /> Die drei Teilmodelle wurden hinsichtlich der implizierten Hypothesen mit vielen unterschiedlichen Ansätzen validiert. Das Resultat dieser intensiven Analyse zeigt für jedes Teilmodell eine zufriedenstellende Tauglichkeit. <br /> Die Modellierung der Landnutzungsänderungen wurden in drei mesoskaligen Flusseinzugsgebieten mit einer Fläche zwischen 100 und 500 km&#178; durchgeführt, die sich markant in ihrer Landnutzung unterscheiden. Besonderer Wert wurde bei der Gebietsauswahl darauf gelegt, dass eines der Gebiete intensiv landwirtschaftlich genutzt wird, eines dicht besiedelt und eines vorwiegend bewaldet ist. <br /> Im Hinblick auf ihre Relevanz für die vorliegende Fragestellung wurden aus bestehenden Landnutzungstrends die Szenarien für (1) die prognostizierte Siedlungsfläche für das Jahr 2010, (2) die möglichen Konsequenzen des EU-weiten Beschlusses der Agenda 2000 und (3) die Novelle des Bundesnaturschutzgesetzes aus dem Jahr 2001 abgeleitet.<br /> Jedes Szenario wurde mit Hilfe des Modells auf die drei Untersuchungsgebiete angewendet. Dabei wurden für die Siedlungsausdehnung in allen drei Gebieten realistische Landnutzungsmuster generiert. Einschränkungen ergeben sich bei der Suche nach Grenzertragsstilllegungsflächen. Hier hat unter homogenen Gebietseigenschaften die zufällige Verteilung von Flächen für die Stilllegung zu einem unrealistischen Ergebnis geführt. Die Güte der Schutzgebietsausweisung ist maßgeblich an die aktuelle Landnutzung der Aue und die Morphologie des Geländes gebunden. Die besten Ergebnisse werden erzielt, wenn die Flächen in den Ufer- und Auenbereichen mehrheitlich unter derzeitiger Ackernutzung stehen und der Flusslauf sich in das Relief eingetieft hat.<br /> Exemplarisch werden für jeden Landnutzungstrend die hydrologischen Auswirkungen anhand eines historischen Hochwassers beschrieben, aus denen jedoch keine pauschale Aussage zum Einfluss der Landnutzung abgeleitet werden kann.<br /> Die Studie demonstriert die Bedeutung des Landnutzungsmusters für die natürlichen Prozesse in der Landschaft und unterstreicht die Notwendigkeit einer räumlich expliziten Modellierung für landschaftsökologische Fragestellungen in der Mesoskala. / Today&prime;s landscapes in Central Europe are the result of a long history of land-use, which is characterised by many different demands. The immediate and long-term consequences of predominantly intensive land-use have led to environmental problems in many cases. Therefore it is necessary to develop strategies for the maintenance of landscape efficiency which take into account the different claims of utilisation. In this context the estimation of possible impacts of land-use changes represents an important statement of problem. <br /> For the analysis of the relevant processes within the landscape, it is common to apply mathematical models. Such models enable the investigation of the landscape under current conditions or with regard to modified boundary conditions. A hypothetic alteration of land-use, which is termed as land-use scenario, represents a substantial modification of the boundary conditions, because land-use exerts a strong influence on the natural processes of the landscape. While the driving forces are predominantly governed by socio-economical and political decisions, the exact location of land-use changes within the landscape mainly depends on the natural conditions and follows partly transparent rules. With these presumptions it is possible to develop land-use scenarios, which can serve as input data for the modelling of different questions of landscape ecology such as the influence of land-use on the water balance, the danger of erosion or the quality of habitat characteristics. <br /> In the context of this thesis the grid-based deterministic allocation model luck (Land Use Change Scenario Kit) for the allocation of land-use changes was developed. It is based upon the types of spatial data, which are commonly used in landscape ecology, such as information on land-use, soils as well as topography. The derivation of scenarios follows the approaches of landscape planning. The model is based upon the hypothesis, that land-use structure can be described as a function of its landscape ecological factors. The potential of a site to become subject to land-use changes, results from a combination of its local qualities and the site characteristics of its neighbourhood. Land-use change is realised iteratively in order to simulate the gradual process of changes in the landscape.<br /> The influence of land-use changes on flood generation serves as a case study to demonstrate the need for spatial explicit land-use scenarios. For each land-use category &ndash; built up areas, agriculturally used areas and natural/semi-natural land &ndash; the model luck offers a submodel for investigating the effect of land-use changes on flood generation: <br /> <br /> 1) Expansion of settlement area: This submodel is based upon the assumption that settlements spread only in the neighbourhood of already existing built-up areas and preferentially along infrastructural axes of development. Steep slopes inhibit the spreading on potential locations.<br /> 2) Set-aside of marginal yield sites under agricultural use: Setting-aside of arable land is based on the hypothesis that the selection of arable land to be set-aside depends on the potential yield efficiency of the locations. Within this submodel all fields under agricultural use are valued to that effect and the ones with the least productive efficiency are selected as set-aside locations. In case of homogeneous area qualities the set-aside locations are selected randomly. <br /> 3) Establishment of protected areas in waterside and ripearian areas: This submodel takes into consideration that the protection of sensitive areas along the river courses may have positive consequences for the efficiency of the landscape. Therefore this submodel establishes protection zones on waterside and ripearian sites under currently agricultural use, that might be of value for nature conservation. The size of the protection area depends on the morphology of the surrounding landscape. <br /> <br /> The three submodels were validated with respect to the implied hypotheses by the help of many different approaches. The result of this intensive analysis shows a satisfying suitability for each of the submodels.<br /> <br /> The simulation of land-use changes was carried out for three mesoscale river catchments with an area between 100 and 500 km&#178;. Special attention was paid to the fact that these areas should be markingly different in their land-use: One study area is predominantly under intensive agricultural use, one is densely populated and the third one is covered by forest in large parts of the area. <br /> With regard to their relevance to the onhand question from existing land-use trends scenarios were derived for the prognosed settlement area for the year 2010, for the possible consequences of the EU-wide agreement of Agenda 2000 and for the amending federal conservation law dating to the year 2001, which enhances the enlargement of protected areas. <br /> Each scenario was applied to the three study areas utilizing the model luck. For the expansion of the settlement areas in all three study areas realistic land-use patterns were generated. Limitations arose only in the context of the search for marginal yield fields. Here, the random distribution of areas to be set-aside under homogeneous conditions led to unrealistic results. The quality of the establishment of protected areas in waterside and ripearian areas is substantially bound to current land-use and the morphology of the area. The best results for this submodel are achieved if waterside and ripearian areas are mainly arable land and if the river has lowered its course into the morphology. <br /> The hydrological consequences are described exemplarily for each land-use trend with a historical flood event. The interpretation of the hydrographs does not allow global statements about the influence of land-use. <br /> The study demonstrates the significance of land-use pattern for the natural processes in the landscape and underlines the necessity of spatially explicit modelling for landscape ecological questions at the mesoscale.

Landscapes are changing environments. Conservation of the amenities associated with landscapes must take into account the tendency of a landscape to change over time. Change is considered to be influenced by both cultural land use practices and natural resource processes which act on the landscape. A technique is developed which demonstrates an approach to measure the stability of landscapes. This approach also provides a means to qualify the importance of the elements which make up the landscape, thus defining the matrix of the landscape. A case study of the San Pedro National Conservation Area is used to demonstrate the technique. Sampled at three intervals 1935, 1973 and 1986 the landscape is shown to be stable, identifying this area with intrinsic value for conservation. Landscape scale assessments are shown to be inappropriate for ecosystem scale changes.