• Refine Query
  • Source
  • Publication year
  • to
  • Language
  • 17
  • 8
  • 8
  • 1
  • Tagged with
  • 36
  • 36
  • 25
  • 14
  • 12
  • 9
  • 8
  • 8
  • 8
  • 8
  • 7
  • 7
  • 7
  • 6
  • 6
  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
11

Mid-Holocene Speleothem Climate Proxy Records from Florida and Belize

Pollock, Anna L. 09 April 2015 (has links)
As global temperatures rise due to anthropogenic climate change, water resources, thus economies, are threatened. A geologically recent period of increased temperatures is the mid-Holocene and an investigation of its climate may allow for a better understanding of future precipitation and changes to regional water resources. The regions of interest are tropical Northern Central America and subtropical North America with Belize and Florida representing each climate zone. By reconstructing mid-Holocene climate in Florida and Belize, I hope to provide a better understanding of how increased temperatures and a reduced latitudinal temperature gradient impacts both precipitation patterns and variability. Today, drivers of changes in precipitation include climate systems such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Therefore, it is imperative to determine their latitudinal influences during the mid-Holocene and consequently their potential impact on water resources in the near future. Speleothems from Chen Ha Cave, Vaca Plateau, Belize and Brown's Cave, West Central Florida, provided high-resolution (sub-annual to decadal) oxygen and carbon stable isotope data that allowed for a detailed investigation of mid-Holocene climate. The speleothems were sampled along the growth axis of a cross-section for oxygen and carbon isotopic analysis. 234U-230Th dating was used to create a chronology for each record and determine the time step between each isotope sample. Time series analysis with variations of Fourier transforms, including Lomb-Scargle, wavelet analysis, and multi-taper method, was used to extract periodicities for each oxygen isotope record. To determine which atmospheric-oceanic modes influenced mid-Holocene precipitation, the speleothem periodicities were compared to those of known periodicities of atmospheric-oceanic modes, such as the AMV and NAO. Finally, the Florida and Belize records were assessed for coherency using cross wavelet analysis. The Floridian speleothem recorded less precipitation compared to present levels due to a westward expansion and intensification of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) with a quasi-persistent but less influential AMV. Relative to today, the mid-Holocene in Belize was slightly wetter which I suggest is a result of a more northerly ITCZ and an intensification of the NASH that increased the strength of the Caribbean Lower Level Jet (CLLJ). The Seuss solar cycle was also significant in Belize, contributing 7.2% of the precipitation variability. Wavelet coherency assessment reveal very little connectivity between the Florida and Belize speleothem reconstructions, potentially due to the blocking influence of the ITCZ. Comparison to other records from the mid-Holocene supports the hypothesis of an intensified NASH and more northerly ITCZ. A future increase in precipitation in Belize may lead to increased soil erosion, the need for crop adaptation, and risk to the population of low lying areas, such as Belize City. In Florida, reduced precipitation may result in a decrease in agricultural output and threats to the state's freshwater supply.
12

El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability during the Little Ice Age and medieval climate anomaly reconstructed from fossil coral geochemistry and pseudoproxy analysis

Hereid, Kelly Ann 26 February 2013 (has links)
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates global interannual climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic climate change hinders understanding of natural ENSO variability. Model predictions of the response of future ENSO variability to anthropogenic forcing are highly uncertain. A better understanding of how ENSO operates during different mean climate states may improve predictions of its future behavior. This study develops a technique to quantify the response of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and salinity to ENSO variations. This analysis defines expected regional relationships between ENSO forcing and the tropical Pacific climate response. For example, the western tropical Pacific records El Niño events with greater skill than La Niña events; whereas the oceans near the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) preferentially record La Niña events. This baseline understanding of regional skill calibrates interpretations of both modern and pre-instrumental coral geochemical climate proxy records. A suite of monthly resolved 18O variations in a fossil corals (Porites spp.) from the tropical western Pacific (Papua New Guinea) and the SPCZ (Vanuatu) are used to develop case studies of ENSO variability under external forcing conditions that differ from the modern climate. A record from Misima, Papua New Guinea (1411-1644 CE) spans a period of reduced solar forcing that coincides with the initiation of the Little Ice Age. This record indicates that the surface ocean in this region experienced a small change in hydrologic balance with no change in temperature, extended periods of quiescence in El Niño activity, reduced mean El Niño event amplitudes, and fewer large amplitude El Niño events relative to signals captured in regional modern records. Several multidecadal (~30-50 year) coral records from Tasmaloum, Vanuatu during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~900-1300 CE), a period of increased solar forcing, depict ENSO variability that is generally lower than modern times. However, these records often cannot be distinguished from 20th century ENSO variability due to ENSO variability uncertainty associated with record lengths. Neither record can be tied to concurrent changes in solar or volcanic forcing, calling into question the paradigm of ENSO variability being predominantly mediated by external forcing changes on multidecadal time scales. / text
13

Tracing Paleoclimate over the Past 25,000 Years Using Evidence from Radiogenic Isotopes

Xie, Ruifang 03 October 2013 (has links)
The objective of this dissertation is to apply radiogenic isotopes extracted from marine sediments to investigate aspects of global climate change over the past 25 kyr, especially ocean and atmospheric circulation, continental aridity, and hydrology. By focusing on the geochemical records from marine sediments and authigenic precipitates preserved in these sediments, I aim to better understand climate forcing and feedback mechanisms, which are critical to models of climate change. Firstly, I have investigated the dynamics of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the past 25 kyr in the eastern equatorial Pacific by fingerprinting dust provenance using radiogenic isotopes (Nd, Sr, Pb) and trace elements (Fe, Si, Ba) in the detrital fraction of marine sediments along a transect across the equator at 110ºW. Results from this study suggest no glacial-Holocene difference in the mean position of the ITCZ, but a more northerly, possibly stronger, deglacial ITCZ. Secondly, I have applied Nd isotope ratios from authigenic precipitates extracted from marine sediments and those from fish debris to trace past intermediate water circulation changes on glacial-interglacial and millennial timescales. The authigenic Nd isotope record from the Florida Straits suggests a reduced circulation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) into the tropical North Atlantic during the Younger Dryas (YD) and Heinrich 1 (H1) events, associated with a significant reduction in AMOC. However, in the Southern Caribbean, apparent deviations in the Nd isotopic compositions between the acid-reductive leachate and the fish debris suggest that the leachate method is not reliable at this location and that it needs to be tested in more detail in various oceanic settings. In the Southern Caribbean, the fish debris Nd isotope results suggest a two-step recovery of the upper North Atlantic Deep Water during the last deglaciation. Comparing our new fish debris Nd isotope data to authigenic Nd isotope data for sediments from the Florida Straits and the Demarara Rise, we propose that glacial and deglacial AAIW does not penetrate beyond the lower depth limit of modern AAIW in the tropical North Atlantic. Both studies suggest a tight connection between Atlantic intermediate water circulation variability and high-latitude North Atlantic climate change.
14

Changements climatologiques en zone intertropicale africaine durant les derniers 165.000 ans / Climatological changes in the African intertropical zone during the last 165,000 years

Dalibard, Mathieu 17 February 2011 (has links)
La carotte KZai02, forée dans le cône détritique sous-marin du fleuve Zaire/Congo, renseigne du stade isotopique 6.6 à l’Actuel (derniers 165 ka). La dynamique de la végétation de l’Afrique Centrale a été reconstruite sur la base de l’étude de son contenu pollinique. Ces résultats, comparés à ceux du contenu en carbone organique total et au rapport Ti/K, renseignent respectivement sur l’activité des alizés et l’intensité de la mousson dans le passé. Les glaciaires sont caractérisées par des températures basses empêchant le développement de la forêt tropicale humide sur le bassin versant du Zaïre/Congo au bénéfice des savanes. Les interglaciaires sont marquées par le développement de la forêt tropicale humide et des marais de mangrove sur la côte suite à l’élévation du niveau marin. Le passage progressif de zones herbeuses à des environnements plus forestiers témoigne d’un décalage entre les augmentations de température et d’humidité. Le stade isotopique 5 montre deux événements moins chauds (sous-stades 5b et 5d) avec le développement des forêts afromontagnardes (principalement Podocarpus). L’excentricité, l’obliquité et particulièrement la précession ont été identifiées comme ayant exercé une influence sur les écosystèmes végétaux. Ces périodicités ont été interprétées en termes de variations des précipitations liées à des fluctuations de l’ITCZ. Des cycles infra-Milankovitch ont aussi été révélés par l’analyse spectrale. Ils sont attribués (1) aux pulsations glaciaires des événements de Heinrich et de Dansgaard/Oeschger et (2) à des variations à haute fréquence semblables à celles décelées sur la mousson est-asiatique et reliées au contrôle des calottes polaires / Core KZai02 from the Zaire/Congo deep sea fan runs from MIS 6.6 to Present (last 1685 ka). Its pollen study allows to reconstruct the vegetation past variations over the Central Africa. These results, compared to the Total Organic Carbon content (TOC) and the Ti/K ratio, inform on the past trade winds and West African monsoon variability, respectively. During glacials, low temperatures over the Zaire/Congo watershed prevented the development of the tropical rain forest in opposition to savannah. Each interglacial starts with the development of mangrove testifying to events of sea-level rise. Then, the succession of grassy and forested environments indicates a gap between temperature and humidity rises. During the warmer episodes, rain forest expanded over the Central Africa. The Marine Isotope Stage 5 includes two cooler events supported by expansion of the afromontane forest (mainly Podocarpus) corresponding to substages 5b and 5d. Eccentricity, obliquity and particularly precession are identified in variations of the ecological groups of the KZai 02 pollen record and interpreted in terms of variations of precipitations linked to fluctuations of the ITCZ. Sub-Milankovitch periods are also revealed by spectral analysis and related to (1) the Heinrich and Dansgaard/Oeschger glacial pulsation events and (2) high frequency variations similar to the East Asian monsoon oscillations controlled by ice sheets
15

Influência da zona de convergência intertropical na Monção Sul-Americana durante o último período glacial com base em registros geoquí­micos de espeleotemas da Colômbia / not available

Ramirez Ruiz, Veronica Marcela 12 December 2018 (has links)
A Zona de Convergência Intertropical (ITCZ) marca a área de ar ascendente nos trópicos, associada com altas pluviosidades e característica chave da circulação tropical da célula de Hadley, dominando o ciclo hidrológico sazonalmente sobre os trópicos, com precipitação máxima associada ao hemisfério com as maiores temperaturas da superfície do mar. As alterações de longo prazo na posição ITCZ tem sido considerada como um importante fator de controle da paleo-precipitação na área equatorial para avaliar as alterações relativas na sua posição e intensidade em escalas de tempo orbitais e milenar. A este respeito, há uma necessidade de registros de precipitação com amplia profundida temporal, alta resolução e bem datados no norte da América do Sul para avaliar como o deslocamento da ITCZ influenciou a paleo-precipitação na região e sua relação com o Sistema da Monção Sul-Americana (SASM). Nosso registro de \'delta\' \'ANTPOT.\'18 O em espeleotema da caverna de Carracos, localizada no município de El Peñon na região centre leste da Colombia e situado na posição média atual da ITCZ no norte da América do Sul, exibiu mudanças na precipitação durante os últimos 103 ky BP até o presente, com uma curva isotópica continua para o último período deglacial. O registro de El Peñon é composto por nove espeleotemas individuais com um total de 6857 amostras de \'delta\' \'ANTPOT.\'18 O e um modelo de idade com 132 datações, precisamente datadas pelo método U/Th. Documentamos pela primeira vez como as mudanças de longo prazo na atividade da ITCZ estão associadas a mudanças na circulação do Atlântico Meridional Overturning na escala orbital. Nos eventos GI, GS e HS, há uma mudança relativa na posição e intensidade da ITCZ na região norte da América do Sul, expondo a área de El Peñon como um setor sensível a essas variações, o que gera relações de fase/antifase com registros do Caribe e a área de influência sul daITCZ. Igualmente, é sugerida uma assimetria zonal durante o LGM caracterizada pela posição da ITCZ, levando aumento do fluxo de umidade em Centro America e Colômbia, enquanto condições climáticas contrastantes são observadas do lado leste do continente o sem uma resposta forte nos outros registros de América do Sul. Apesar que as condições nas mudanças oceânicas sejam o fator climático dominante para a variabilidade da ITCZ durante o último período glacial, a forçante de insolação no verão austral ainda é muito evidente durante o Holoceno, levando a um deslocamento para o sul da ITCZ em poucos graus alcançando, sua posição mais meridional no presente. / The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) marks the area of ascending air in the tropics, which is associated with generally high rainfall and is a key feature of the tropical Hadley circulation. This ITCZ dominates the hydrological cycle seasonally over the tropics with maximum rainfall associated with warmer sea surface temperatures in each). Although long-term changes in the ITCZ position have been considered as a major factor controlling paleo-precipitation in the equatorial area to evaluate the relative changes in its position and intensity on both orbital and millennial time scales. In this regard, there is a need for long, high resolution and well-dated records of precipitation in Northern South America to evaluate how the ITCZ has influenced the paleo-precipitation over the SASM domain. Our composite speleothem \'delta\' \'ANTPOT.\'18 O record from Carracos cave inferring past precipitation changes during the last 103 ky B.P., it is located in the El Peñon municipality in the eastern Colombian Cordillera and the latitude of the study site coincides with the mean modern position of the ITCZ in northern South America. The El Peñon speleothem \'delta\' \'ANTPOT.\'18 O record is composed of nine individual speleothems with 6857 \'delta\' \'ANTPOT.\'18 O measurements and the chronology of the CAR speleothem record is based on 132 very precise U/Th dates. We document for the first time how long-term changes in ITCZ activity are associated with changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation. In the GI and HS events, there is a relative change in the position and intensity of the ITCZ in the northern region of South America, exposing the El Peñon area as a sector sensitive to these variations, which generates phase/antiphase relationships with records from the Caribbean and the southern area of influence of the ITCZ. The El Peñon speleothem record also suggests that the ITCZ was characterized by a large zonal asymmetry during the LGM, leading to enhanced moisture influx from the Caribbean toward Colombia, intensifying the monsoon over the SASM region of western and southern Brazil and the tropical Andes, while contrasting climate conditions are observed from the eastern side of continent. Although the changing oceanic conditions are notably the dominant climate driver for ITCZ variability during the last glacial period, austral summer insolation forcing is still very evident during the Holocene, leading to a southward displacement of the ITCZ by a few degrees reaching its southernmost position at present-day.
16

Oscillations of the intertropical convergence zone and the genesis of easterly waves

Toma, Violeta E. 02 July 2008 (has links)
We examine the eastern Pacific Ocean Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) both in its mean state and transient phases using a combined diagnostic, theoretical and numerical modeling approach. We note that the ITCZ is perpetually in a transient state with strong variability occurring on 4-8 day time scales. Transients, about half the amplitude of the mean ITCZ, propagate northwards from the near-equatorial southern hemisphere eventually increasing the convection in the vicinity of the mean ITCZ convection. It is argued that the mean ITCZ is continually inertially unstable with incursions of anticyclonic vorticity advected across the equator resulting in the creation of a divergence-convergence doublet. The low-level convergence generates convection and vortex tube stretching which generates cyclonic vorticity counteracting the northward advection of anticyclonic vorticity. During a cycle, the heating in the mid-troposphere near 10°N oscillated between 6 and 12 K/day at the inertial frequency of the latitude of the mean convection. The shallow meridional circulation, noted in the mean field in other studies, appears to be a result of the transient nature of the ITCZ. It is hypothesized that westward propagating equatorial waves result from the inertial oscillation of the ITCZ. To test that the waves are formed in situ in the eastern Pacific and not remnants of waves propagating from the Atlantic or promoted by the Central and South American orography, several numerical experiments are undertaken using a high-resolution regional model spanning the western Atlantic Ocean and the eastern Pacific. In the control case, the model is initialized at all boundaries with full high-frequency observations. In two additional experiments, these transients are filtered out, and a third experiment is run with the topography over a large part of Central and South America removed. In all experiments, westward propagating waves are formed in the region of high CEPG suggesting that the hypothesis of in situ development may be correct.
17

Mecanismos físicos da influência da temperatura da superfície do mar no Pacifico e Atlântico tropicais sobre as chuvas no Norte do Nordeste brasileiro.

PONTES, Maissa Ludymilla Carvalho. 28 August 2018 (has links)
Submitted by Lucienne Costa (lucienneferreira@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-08-28T16:57:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MAISSA LUDYMILLA CARVALHO PONTES – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2018.pdf: 4820642 bytes, checksum: e320b4696bcf114846cc43a6004d16a1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-28T16:57:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MAISSA LUDYMILLA CARVALHO PONTES – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2018.pdf: 4820642 bytes, checksum: e320b4696bcf114846cc43a6004d16a1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-06-05 / Capes / A qualidade da estação chuvosa no Nordeste pode ser relacionada com a variabilidade que surge em decorrência do fenômeno El Niño-Oscilação Sul (ENOS) que influencia a estação chuvosa tanto pela alteração na célula de Walker quanto, por padrões de teleconexões, sendo este último responsáveis por causar variabilidades na Temperatura da superfície do Mar (TSM) no Atlântico Norte, através de padrões de trem de onda, que pode influenciar no deslocamento e tempo da permanecia da Zona de Convergência Intertropical (ZCIT) nestas latitudes. O deslocamento mais para norte da ZCIT pode ocasionar a formação de uma célula termalmente direta com seu ramo de subsidência ao sul do equador. A precipitação na estação chuvosa no Nordeste ainda pode ser influenciada pela variabilidade da TSM, pressão ao nível do mar (PNM) e vento sobre a bacia do Atlântico, influenciando também o posicionamento da ZCIT, tanto por influenciar o gradiente inter-hemisférico de TSM quanto pelo posicionamento da convergência dos alísios. Neste trabalhou buscou-se melhorar a compreensão da forma como estes mecanismos se combinam, e se há predominância entre eles. Numa etapa inicial foram analisados compostos de um conjunto de variáveis para situações de El Niño, La Niña e neutralidade no Pacífico, com o intuito de investigar os principais mecanismos controlador da variabilidade do Atlântico nesses diferentes casos. Mostrando assim, que nas fases positiva e negativa do ENOS a grande variabilidade nos extratrópicos se sobressai sobre as pequenas variações na região tropical e que as anomalias de fluxo de calor são influenciadas pelo o mecanismo de retroalimentação positiva, para condições de neutralidade a variabilidade nos trópicos parece ser mais notada e a variação do fluxo de calor ocorre pela variação da temperatura na interface oceano-atmosfera. Tais resultados foram seguidos por analises de alguns estudos de casos, para isto, foram analisados anos específicos com relação às anomalias nas células de Hadley, Walker, fluxos de calor, TSM, pressão ao nível (PNM), vento e precipitação mostrando que os efeitos das teleconexões do ENOS são influenciados de maneiras diferentes dependendo da intensidade do fenômeno. Para os anos estudados um dos principais mecanismos de variabilidade para a TSM na região tropical foi o mecanismo de retroalimentação positiva. Todavia, para o ano em que o gradiente inter-hemisférico foi bem defino, a variação da temperatura na interface oceano-atmosfera foi o principal forçante para as anomalias de fluxo de calor. Mostrando que o mecanismo de variabilidade mudará de ano para ano a depender das anomalias da TSM. As bacias do Atlântico Tropical Norte e Sul tendem a responderem a variabilidade com mecanismos diferentes de um ano para outro. / The quality of the rainy season in the Northeast can be related to the variability that arises in from of the phenomenon El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). That influences the rainy season by both the change in Walker's cell and by teleconnection patterns. The latter are responsible for causing variability in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic, by means of wave train patterns, which may influence the displacement and time of permanence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in these latitudes. This further northward shift of the ITCZ may lead to the formation of a thermally direct cell with its branch of subsidence south of the equator. Precipitation in the rainy season in the Northeast can still be influenced by the variability of SST, sea level pressure (PNM) and wind over the Atlantic basin. This variability also affects the positioning of the ZCIT, both because it influences the inter - hemispheric SST gradient and the positioning of the trade-offs. In this work was sought to improve the understanding of how these mechanisms combine, and whether there is predominance between them. In an initial stage we analyzed compounds of a set of variables for situations of El Niño, La Niña and neutral Pacific. The aim was to investigate the main mechanisms controlling the Atlantic variability in these different cases. It is possible to observe that in the positive and negative phases of the ENSO the great variability in the extratropics stands out for the small variations in the tropical region and that the anomalies of the heat flow were influenced by the positive feedback mechanism. For the neutral Pacific the variability in the tropics seemed to be more noticeable and the variation of the heat flow occurred by the temperature variation at the ocean-atmosphere interface. Some case studies were then made. That is, we analyzed specific years with respect to the anomalies in the cells of Hadley, Walker, heat flows, SST, geopotential, wind and precipitation. Thus, the effects of ENSO teleconnections are influenced in different ways depending on the intensity of the phenomenon. For the years studied, one of the main mechanisms of variability for SST in the tropical region was the positive feedback mechanism. However, for the year in which the inter-hemispher ic gradient was well defined, the temperature variation at the ocean-atmosphere interface was the main force for the heat flow anomalies. Showing that the variability mechanism will change from year to year depending on the SST anomalies. The results show that the North Atlantic and Southern Tropical Atlantic basins tend to respond to variability with different mechanisms from year to year.
18

A numerical model of equatorial waves with application to the seasonal upwelling in the Gulf of Guinea

Patton, Randall J January 1981 (has links)
Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, 1981. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND LINDGREN. / Bibliography: leaves 118-120. / by Randall J. Patton. / M.S.
19

Estudo dos Mecanismos Vinculados ao Estabelecimento de um Evento de ZCAS Através de Simulações com o Modelo WRF / Study of Mechanisms Associated to the Establishment of a SACZ Event by Simulations with the WRF Model

Natália Pillar da Silva 30 May 2018 (has links)
No presente estudo, os mecanismos vinculados à formação de um intenso evento de Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS) foram investigados. Para isso, uma análise observacional foi realizada para identificação desse sistema e seguinte implementação de um estudo numérico em uma escala sub-sazonal. Uma vez que a atividade da ZCAS é predominantemente concentrada em uma das regiões de maior importância socioeconômica da América do Sul, os estudos de previsibilidade dessa feição são extremamente importantes. O evento escolhido pela análise observacional foi caracterizado pelo suporte de uma estrutura em larga escala para seu desenvolvimento e persistência, através da presença de um vórtice ciclônico na região costeira do sudeste do Brasil. A representação numérica desse caso de ZCAS foi particularmente desafiadora, uma vez que trata-se de um sistema complexo, cujo desenvolvimento e evolução conectam-se a características atmosféricas de grande escala. Para aprimorar a representação numérica desse evento, várias aplicações utilizando-se nudging espectral foram testadas, para garantir que as características de grande escala que suportam o sistema fossem bem representadas pelo modelo numérico. Os resultados mostram que a alternativa menos restritiva para a aplicação do nudging espectral mostrou-se ideal para manter suas características importantes, e ainda permitindo que os componentes físicos do modelo contribuam com a representação da atmosfera em escalas menores. A partir disso, novos experimentos numéricos foram conduzidos para uma avaliação de como diferentes parametrizações convectivas e microfísica representam a banda de precipitação associada ao sistema. Os resultados mostram que, quando usados juntos, tanto a opção de microfísica WRF Single Moment 6-Class (WSM6) quanto a opção cumulus de Kain-Fritsch (KF) contribuíram para a formação da banda convectiva associada à ZCAS. Os resultados também mostram que é possível usar um esquema de microfísica mais simples (WSM3) para a representação do sistema, uma vez que os desempenhos entre os diferentes testes em microfísica foram semelhantes. / In the present study, the mechanisms and formation of an intense South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) event were investigated. For this, an observational analysis was performed to identify this system for the implementation of a numerical study on a sub-seasonal scale. Since the SACZ activity is predominantly concentrated over one of the most socioeconomically important regions of South America, predictability studies for this system are extremely valuable. The SACZ event chosen by the observational analysis was supported by a large-scale structure that featured a cyclonic vortex in the coastal region of southeastern Brazil. The numerical representation of a SACZ case in this context was particularly challenging since the SACZ is a very complex system and its development and evolution are closely linked to large-scale atmospheric features. To improve the numerical representation of such event, several spectral nudging applications were tested to ensure the large scale features that support the systems are well represented by the numerical model. Results show that the less restrictive alternative for the spectral nudging application was ideal for maintaining important features in large scales while still allowing the physical components of the model to contribute the representation of the atmosphere on smaller scales. From this, numerical experiments were conducted for an evaluation of how different convective parametrizations and microphysics represent the precipitation band associated to the system. The results show that, when used together, both WRF Single Moment 6-Class (WSM6) microphysics option and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus option contributed to the formation of convective band associated with the SACZ. Results also show that it is possible to use a simpler microphysics scheme (WSM3) for the representation of the system, since the performances between different tests in microphysics were similar.
20

Estudo dos Mecanismos Vinculados ao Estabelecimento de um Evento de ZCAS Através de Simulações com o Modelo WRF / Study of Mechanisms Associated to the Establishment of a SACZ Event by Simulations with the WRF Model

Silva, Natália Pillar da 30 May 2018 (has links)
No presente estudo, os mecanismos vinculados à formação de um intenso evento de Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS) foram investigados. Para isso, uma análise observacional foi realizada para identificação desse sistema e seguinte implementação de um estudo numérico em uma escala sub-sazonal. Uma vez que a atividade da ZCAS é predominantemente concentrada em uma das regiões de maior importância socioeconômica da América do Sul, os estudos de previsibilidade dessa feição são extremamente importantes. O evento escolhido pela análise observacional foi caracterizado pelo suporte de uma estrutura em larga escala para seu desenvolvimento e persistência, através da presença de um vórtice ciclônico na região costeira do sudeste do Brasil. A representação numérica desse caso de ZCAS foi particularmente desafiadora, uma vez que trata-se de um sistema complexo, cujo desenvolvimento e evolução conectam-se a características atmosféricas de grande escala. Para aprimorar a representação numérica desse evento, várias aplicações utilizando-se nudging espectral foram testadas, para garantir que as características de grande escala que suportam o sistema fossem bem representadas pelo modelo numérico. Os resultados mostram que a alternativa menos restritiva para a aplicação do nudging espectral mostrou-se ideal para manter suas características importantes, e ainda permitindo que os componentes físicos do modelo contribuam com a representação da atmosfera em escalas menores. A partir disso, novos experimentos numéricos foram conduzidos para uma avaliação de como diferentes parametrizações convectivas e microfísica representam a banda de precipitação associada ao sistema. Os resultados mostram que, quando usados juntos, tanto a opção de microfísica WRF Single Moment 6-Class (WSM6) quanto a opção cumulus de Kain-Fritsch (KF) contribuíram para a formação da banda convectiva associada à ZCAS. Os resultados também mostram que é possível usar um esquema de microfísica mais simples (WSM3) para a representação do sistema, uma vez que os desempenhos entre os diferentes testes em microfísica foram semelhantes. / In the present study, the mechanisms and formation of an intense South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) event were investigated. For this, an observational analysis was performed to identify this system for the implementation of a numerical study on a sub-seasonal scale. Since the SACZ activity is predominantly concentrated over one of the most socioeconomically important regions of South America, predictability studies for this system are extremely valuable. The SACZ event chosen by the observational analysis was supported by a large-scale structure that featured a cyclonic vortex in the coastal region of southeastern Brazil. The numerical representation of a SACZ case in this context was particularly challenging since the SACZ is a very complex system and its development and evolution are closely linked to large-scale atmospheric features. To improve the numerical representation of such event, several spectral nudging applications were tested to ensure the large scale features that support the systems are well represented by the numerical model. Results show that the less restrictive alternative for the spectral nudging application was ideal for maintaining important features in large scales while still allowing the physical components of the model to contribute the representation of the atmosphere on smaller scales. From this, numerical experiments were conducted for an evaluation of how different convective parametrizations and microphysics represent the precipitation band associated to the system. The results show that, when used together, both WRF Single Moment 6-Class (WSM6) microphysics option and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus option contributed to the formation of convective band associated with the SACZ. Results also show that it is possible to use a simpler microphysics scheme (WSM3) for the representation of the system, since the performances between different tests in microphysics were similar.

Page generated in 0.0882 seconds