Thesis advisor: Zhijie Xiao / The first two chapters study the copula Markov model combined with nonstationarity. The last chapter proposes a new structural break test with good size and power. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2020. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

This study develops a dynamic importance sampling method (DIS) for numerical simulations of rare events. The DIS method is flexible, fast, and accurate. The most importance is that it is very easy to implement. It could be applied to any multifactor copula models, which conduct by arbitrary independent random variables. First, the key common factor (KCF) is determined by the maximum value among the coefficients of factor loadings. Second, searching the indicator by the order statistics and applying the truncated sampling techniques, the probability of large losses (PLL) and the expected excess loss above threshold (EELAT) can be estimated precisely. Except for the assumption that the factor loadings of KCF do not exit zero elements, we do not impose any restrictions on the composition of the portfolio. The DIS method developed in this study can therefore be applied to a very wide range of credit risk models. Comparison of the numerical experiment between the method of Glasserman, Kang and Shahabuddin (2008) and the DIS method developed in this study, under the multifactor Gaussian copula model and the high market impact condition (the factor loadings of marketwide factor of 0.8), both variance reduction ratio and efficient ratio of the DIS model are much better than that of Glasserman et al. (2008)¡¦s. And both results approximate when the factor loadings of marketwide factor decreases to the range of 0.5 to 0.25. However, the DIS method is superior to the method of Glasserman et al. (2008) in terms of the practicability. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that the DIS method is not only feasible to the general market conditions, but also particularly to the high market impact condition, especially in credit contagion or market collapse environments. It is also noted that the numerical results indicate that the DIS estimators exit bounded relative error.

This study measures the short-term and long-term contagion effects in U.S. stock markets and REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) markets during the periods of subprime mortgage and financial crises. First, we test contagion between the U.S. stock market and the U.S. REITs market. Then, we test the contagion effects between the U.S. REITs market and eighteen international REITs markets, selected from North America, Oceania, Asian and Europe. To catch the asymmetric effect in the volatility structure of index returns and consider the time-varying data, this study employs asymmetric dynamic Copula models that measure contagion effects. The test result in this study shows that the contagion effect exists because of the fact that during the subprime mortgage crisis, the correlation between the U.S. stock market and REITs market significantly increased. Thus, the two markets lost ground together. While managing not to emerge in Asian REITs markets, the contagion then spread from the U.S. REITs market to Canada, Australia and most of the European REITs markets. In the later financial crisis period, however, the number of European REITs markets impacted by contagion from the U.S. REITs market decreased. Except for Singapore, contagion is absent from the Asian REITs markets. Contagion is more obvious in the short term than in the long term. These results imply that the Asian REITs markets are not easily affected by the U.S. REITs market, which in turn implies that investors could obtain the positive effects of international diversification by investing in this portfolio. In addition, investors should reduce the proportion of their investments placed in REITs markets, as well as focus on a long-term diversification strategy.

A credit derivative is a financial instrument whose value depends on the credit risk of an underlying asset or assets. Credit risk is the possibility that the obligor fails to honor any payment obligation. This thesis proposes four new computational methods for the valuation of credit derivatives. Compared with synthetic collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) or basket default swaps (BDS), the value of which depends on the defaults of a prescribed underlying portfolio, a forward-starting CDO or BDS has a random underlying portfolio, as some ``names'' may default before the CDO or BDS starts. We develop an approach to convert a forward product to an equivalent standard one. Therefore, we avoid having to consider the default combinations in the period between the start of the forward contract and the start of the associated CDO or BDS. In addition, we propose a hybrid method combining Monte Carlo simulation with an analytical method to obtain an effective method for pricing forward-starting BDS. Current factor copula models are static and fail to calibrate consistently against market quotes. To overcome this deficiency, we develop a novel chaining technique to build a multi-period factor copula model from several one-period factor copula models. This allows the default correlations to be time-dependent, thereby allowing the model to fit market quotes consistently. Previously developed multi-period factor copula models require multi-dimensional integration, usually computed by Monte Carlo simulation, which makes the calibration extremely time consuming. Our chaining method, on the other hand, possesses the Markov property. This allows us to compute the portfolio loss distribution of a completely homogeneous pool analytically. The multi-period factor copula is a discrete-time dynamic model. As a first step towards developing a continuous-time dynamic model, we model the default of an underlying by the first hitting time of a Wiener process, which starts from a random initial state. We find an explicit relation between the default distribution and the initial state distribution of the Wiener process. Furthermore, conditions on the existence of such a relation are discussed. This approach allows us to match market quotes consistently.

A credit derivative is a financial instrument whose value depends on the credit risk of an underlying asset or assets. Credit risk is the possibility that the obligor fails to honor any payment obligation. This thesis proposes four new computational methods for the valuation of credit derivatives. Compared with synthetic collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) or basket default swaps (BDS), the value of which depends on the defaults of a prescribed underlying portfolio, a forward-starting CDO or BDS has a random underlying portfolio, as some ``names'' may default before the CDO or BDS starts. We develop an approach to convert a forward product to an equivalent standard one. Therefore, we avoid having to consider the default combinations in the period between the start of the forward contract and the start of the associated CDO or BDS. In addition, we propose a hybrid method combining Monte Carlo simulation with an analytical method to obtain an effective method for pricing forward-starting BDS. Current factor copula models are static and fail to calibrate consistently against market quotes. To overcome this deficiency, we develop a novel chaining technique to build a multi-period factor copula model from several one-period factor copula models. This allows the default correlations to be time-dependent, thereby allowing the model to fit market quotes consistently. Previously developed multi-period factor copula models require multi-dimensional integration, usually computed by Monte Carlo simulation, which makes the calibration extremely time consuming. Our chaining method, on the other hand, possesses the Markov property. This allows us to compute the portfolio loss distribution of a completely homogeneous pool analytically. The multi-period factor copula is a discrete-time dynamic model. As a first step towards developing a continuous-time dynamic model, we model the default of an underlying by the first hitting time of a Wiener process, which starts from a random initial state. We find an explicit relation between the default distribution and the initial state distribution of the Wiener process. Furthermore, conditions on the existence of such a relation are discussed. This approach allows us to match market quotes consistently.

Récemment, la grande complexité des applications modernes, par exemple dans la génétique, l’informatique, la finance, les sciences du climat, etc. a conduit à la proposition des nouveaux modèles qui peuvent décrire la réalité. Dans ces cas,méthodes MCMC classiques ne parviennent pas à rapprocher la distribution a posteriori, parce qu’ils sont trop lents pour étudier le space complet du paramètre. Nouveaux algorithmes ont été proposés pour gérer ces situations, où la fonction de vraisemblance est indisponible. Nous allons étudier nombreuses caractéristiques des modèles complexes: comment éliminer les paramètres de nuisance de l’analyse et faire inférence sur les quantités d’intérêt,dans un cadre bayésienne et non bayésienne et comment construire une distribution a priori de référence. / Recently, the great complexity of modern applications, for instance in genetics,computer science, finance, climatic science etc., has led to the proposal of newmodels which may realistically describe the reality. In these cases, classical MCMCmethods fail to approximate the posterior distribution, because they are too slow toinvestigate the full parameter space. New algorithms have been proposed to handlethese situations, where the likelihood function is unavailable. We will investigatemany features of complex models: how to eliminate the nuisance parameters fromthe analysis and make inference on key quantities of interest, both in a Bayesianand not Bayesian setting, and how to build a reference prior.

Neste trabalho foram utilizadas cópulas bivariadas variantes no tempo para modelar a dependência entre séries de retornos financeiros. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar uma abordagem de estimação semi-paramétrica de cópulas variantes no tempo a partir de uma função de cópula paramétrica na qual o parâmetro varia no tempo. A função do parâmetro desconhecido será estimada pela aproximação de ondaleta Haar, polinômio de Taylor e Kernel. O desempenho dos três métodos de aproximação será comparado via estudos de simulação. Uma aplicação aos dados reais será apresentada para ilustrar a metodologia estudada. / In this work the bivariate Time-varying copula models have been used to model the dependence between payback. The aim of this work is to present an approach of semiparametric estimation of Time-varying copula models from a parametric copula function in which the parameter varies with the time. The function of the unknown parameter will be estimated by Haar wavelet approach, Taylor series and smoothing Kernel approximation. The measured performance of the three estimation method will be compared by simulation study. An application of the data will be presented to illustrate the studied methodology.

Neste trabalho foram utilizadas cópulas bivariadas variantes no tempo para modelar a dependência entre séries de retornos financeiros. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar uma abordagem de estimação semi-paramétrica de cópulas variantes no tempo a partir de uma função de cópula paramétrica na qual o parâmetro varia no tempo. A função do parâmetro desconhecido será estimada pela aproximação de ondaleta Haar, polinômio de Taylor e Kernel. O desempenho dos três métodos de aproximação será comparado via estudos de simulação. Uma aplicação aos dados reais será apresentada para ilustrar a metodologia estudada. / In this work the bivariate Time-varying copula models have been used to model the dependence between payback. The aim of this work is to present an approach of semiparametric estimation of Time-varying copula models from a parametric copula function in which the parameter varies with the time. The function of the unknown parameter will be estimated by Haar wavelet approach, Taylor series and smoothing Kernel approximation. The measured performance of the three estimation method will be compared by simulation study. An application of the data will be presented to illustrate the studied methodology.

Die biotechnologischen Entwicklungen der letzten Jahre ermöglichen eine immer detailliertere Untersuchung von genetischen und molekularen Markern mit multiplen komplexen Traits. Allerdings liefern vorhandene statistische Methoden für diese komplexen Analysen oft keine valide Inferenz. Das erste Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist, zwei neue statistische Methoden für Assoziationsstudien von genetischen Markern mit multiplen Phänotypen zu entwickeln, effizient und robust zu implementieren, und im Vergleich zu existierenden statistischen Methoden zu evaluieren. Der erste Ansatz, C-JAMP (Copula-based Joint Analysis of Multiple Phenotypes), ermöglicht die Assoziation von genetischen Varianten mit multiplen Traits in einem gemeinsamen Copula Modell zu untersuchen. Der zweite Ansatz, CIEE (Causal Inference using Estimating Equations), ermöglicht direkte genetische Effekte zu schätzen und testen. C-JAMP wird in dieser Arbeit für Assoziationsstudien von seltenen genetischen Varianten mit quantitativen Traits evaluiert, und CIEE für Assoziationsstudien von häufigen genetischen Varianten mit quantitativen Traits und Ereigniszeiten. Die Ergebnisse von umfangreichen Simulationsstudien zeigen, dass beide Methoden unverzerrte und effiziente Parameterschätzer liefern und die statistische Power von Assoziationstests im Vergleich zu existierenden Methoden erhöhen können - welche ihrerseits oft keine valide Inferenz liefern. Für das zweite Ziel dieser Arbeit, neue genetische und transkriptomische Marker für kardiometabolische Traits zu identifizieren, werden zwei Studien mit genom- und transkriptomweiten Daten mit C-JAMP und CIEE analysiert. In den Analysen werden mehrere neue Kandidatenmarker und -gene für Blutdruck und Adipositas identifiziert. Dies unterstreicht den Wert, neue statistische Methoden zu entwickeln, evaluieren, und implementieren. Für beide entwickelten Methoden sind R Pakete verfügbar, die ihre Anwendung in zukünftigen Studien ermöglichen. / In recent years, the biotechnological advancements have allowed to investigate associations of genetic and molecular markers with multiple complex phenotypes in much greater depth. However, for the analysis of such complex datasets, available statistical methods often don’t yield valid inference. The first aim of this thesis is to develop two novel statistical methods for association analyses of genetic markers with multiple phenotypes, to implement them in a computationally efficient and robust manner so that they can be used for large-scale analyses, and evaluate them in comparison to existing statistical approaches under realistic scenarios. The first approach, called the copula-based joint analysis of multiple phenotypes (C-JAMP) method, allows investigating genetic associations with multiple traits in a joint copula model and is evaluated for genetic association analyses of rare genetic variants with quantitative traits. The second approach, called the causal inference using estimating equations (CIEE) method, allows estimating and testing direct genetic effects in directed acyclic graphs, and is evaluated for association analyses of common genetic variants with quantitative and time-to-event traits. The results of extensive simulation studies show that both approaches yield unbiased and efficient parameter estimators and can improve the power of association tests in comparison to existing approaches, which yield invalid inference in many scenarios. For the second goal of this thesis, to identify novel genetic and transcriptomic markers associated with cardiometabolic traits, C-JAMP and CIEE are applied in two large-scale studies including genome- and transcriptome-wide data. In the analyses, several novel candidate markers and genes are identified, which highlights the merit of developing, evaluating, and implementing novel statistical approaches. R packages are available for both methods and enable their application in future studies.