"Over the years, risk analysis methodologies have been developed and implemented by many industries. NASA has implemented a cost efficient Continuous Risk Analysis methodology with good results. The U. S. Department of Transportation also states that a continuous risk analysis is the key in identifying, addressing, and handling risks before they become threats to success. However, current practices seldom incorporate this concept into real transportation projects. In general, risk is simply disregarded in feasibility studies. One of primary reasons is the lack of a feasible and effective risk analysis approach to guide efficient implementation in real projects. This thesis reviews current risk analysis practices used in public transportation projects. Using a case study, it also explores potential obstacles encountered in the implementation of systematic risk analysis. Finally, this thesis presents a preliminary risk analysis framework developed through the case study and enriched subsequently by incorporating material documented in the literature. The proposed risk analysis approach is to help achieve continuous risk analysis in transportation projects by enabling early start, frequent implementation, extensive application and flexible adoption."

In the global construction market, most construction companies are willing to undertake international projects in order to maximise their profitability by taking advantage of attractive emerging markets and minimise dependence on unfavorable domestic market conditions. In order to be awarded a contract in highly competitive global construction market, companies should excel in choosing the most attractive markets and prepare winning bids for the selected construction projects in those markets. While preparing bids, the major concern of companies is to offer an optimum price that will enable them to earn enough profits and win the contract at the same time, where profit making ability is strongly correlated with proper estimation of a risk premium that is added onto the estimated cost of the project. Due to the nature of construction works, there are lots of uncertainties associated with the project, market and country conditions. Therefore, how the profitability of the project changes with occurrence of various risk events, in other words, the sensitivity of project costs to risk events, should be estimated by bidders realistically. In this study, fuzzy set theory is used to estimate cost overrun risk in international projects at the bidding stage. The objective is to propose a methodology which can be used by bidders to quantify cost overrun risk so that a realistic risk premium may be determined. A fuzzy risk rating approach is proposed to quantify cost overrun risk rating, which takes into account of risks characterised in international construction projects. For this purpose, risk sources have been identified and a risk model is put forward by using influence diagramming method. Based on this risk model, a fuzzy risk rating algorithm has been defined and software has been developed to conduct fuzzy risk rating calculations easily. After a decision-maker inserts the necessary inputs related with project and country risk factors, the output of the software is a rating that takes into account of all factors that may affect cost overrun risk in international construction projects. The reliability of the algorithm and developed software have been tested by an application on a real construction project. The proposed methodology and decision support tool have been proved to be reliable for the estimation of cost overrun risk while giving bidding decisions in international markets.

Cost overrun is prevalent in the construction industry. Usually, an owner sets a budget at the preliminary phase of a project which changes over time. Past studies are focused on analyzing the cost growth of design-bid-build projects during construction. Limited efforts have been made to analyze details of projects delivered with the Construction Manager General Contractor (CM/GC) method. This study tracks and analyzes the construction cost variation of a project from the conceptual phase to the design completion phase. The analysis is presented with a case study of a new stadium construction project. It identifies that the changes in the scope and design of the project due to the change in available budget were a major reason for variation in the cost estimates over time. Further, this study identifies a) trades with the highest variation in subcontractors’ bids, b) trades that were most overestimated, and c) trades that were most underestimated. The findings of this study is expected to aid owners, designers, and contractors of future projects in improving the preparation, planning, and estimating of future projects; reducing cost variation within trades; and optimizing the amount of contingency required to ensure the successful completion of similar projects.

Cost Overrun is something that plagues infrastructure projects, both in Sweden and globally. The repercussion of it can be severe since it not only hurts the public’s perception of how the public authorities manage and allocates its resources, but also due to the immense opportunity costs that arise when the increased costs need to be covered. In general, the factors that lead to cost overrun in infrastructure transport projects can often be derived from technical, psychological, political, and economical factors, and it is not uncommon that there is a combination of these factors, which is why the subject of cost overrun is so complex. With a highly unique dataset, this paper examines cost overrun in Swedish infrastructure transport projects to see if there is a statistical relationship between cost overrun and the size of a project, its regional location, and whether it is a road- or railway project. Furthermore, an evaluation of the process of estimating and forecasting costs will be conducted. The results shows that the characteristics of regional locations have a significant relationship with projects experiencing cost overrun and that cost overrun is more common in smaller projects. There were no significant differences in cost overrun between types of projects, but it was found that between the period 2018 to 2022, cost estimates had been underestimated by approximately 34%.

Submitted in fulfillment of the academic requirements for the degree of Master of Technology in Construction Management, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa, 2015. / On-time completion and conformity with assigned cost of every project are the most important factors in the success of project plans. Cost overruns and time overrun (delays) have been critical problems of many projects around the world in general and in South Africa in particular. The main objectives of this research are to assess the dominant causes of cost and time overruns, identifying possible and practical measures that can minimize overruns in office building construction projects around eThekwini Municipal area of Kwazulu-Natal. These objectives are achieved through the implementation of the research methodologies that are mainly literature review and questionnaire survey conducted to identify and evaluate the significant factors contributing to delay and cost overruns within the projects of interest. A review of literature identified eighty-five variables for delay, grouped in nine major categories and nine variables for cost overruns ranked in their order of importance in three sets based on the responses from the professionals working for the client, consultants and contractors. The agreement among the sets of rankings for delay and cost overruns has also been tested using statistical methods. The result indicates that there is strong agreement on ranking the importance of the individual variables of delay and cost overruns between parties. From each of the three sets of rankings, the twenty most important variables of delay and the three most important variables of cost overrun are identified as critical. Based on overall results, the top five most important causes are contractor’s cash flow problems, delay in progress payments by the client, poor site supervision and management by contractor, inefficient quality control by the contractor during construction leading to rework due to errors, and contractor’s difficulties in financing the project. Out of the 20 most important delay causing variables, three are found to be common between all parties. These are delay in progress payments by the client, delay in delivery and late ordering of material, and insufficient skill of labour. Furthermore, the study reveals that all stakeholders of construction parties are deeply involved in contributing to the causes of the problems. Thus, in order to eliminate or minimize cost and time extension of office construction projects in the eThekwini Municipal area, a joint effort based on teamwork is essential through effective project planning, controlling and monitoring which boils down to putting in place best practice construction project management.

Infrastructure projects frequently exceed their budgets in both time and cost, which often burdens the taxpayers. A significant percentage of these projects are neither complex nor unique, where the contract sum is a fraction of the contract sum of known megaprojects however has a higher percentage of cost overruns. The purpose of this study is to identify the cause, particularly the explanation behind these small and uncomplicated infrastructure projects' time and cost overruns, and to propose methods to avoid this wastage of taxpayer money. To achieve this purpose, a qualitative case study has been conducted within the scope of the Swedish Transport Administration's (Trafikverket) Investment division in the Eastern region in Uppsala, with a focus on pedestrian and bicycle paths. Empirical data has been gathered using Trafikverket's tools for deviation management, and semi-structured interviews were conducted with forecasters at Trafikverket's Investment division in Uppsala. A literature review has been made and were used to better interpret the empirical results. The identified causes are manifold but can be summarized as legal, political, and bureaucratic obstacles, communication issues, working methods, lack of experience and bad luck. The explanations for time and cost overruns can solely be attributed to the phenomenon of optimism bias, as this encompasses the forecaster's role as a decision maker in the project and the extent to which they could anticipate emerging situations. To mitigate optimism bias, the method of reference class forecasting is proposed. Furthermore, it is suggested to Trafikverket to reconsider the intervals of forecasting to be reviewed and adjusted according to the industry's way of setting forecasts on time. In conclusion, this study states that this is an important topic for future research in cost overruns in infrastructure projects. The recommendation is to focus on small and uncomplicated infrastructure projects. In addition, research must find the explanations for the causes of cost overruns before addressing the problem with appropriate methods.

Quantity Surveyors are considered as the most qualified cost specialists in the construction industry, with their experiences and skills in cost management and control as well as contract management. However, this role is not well recognized in Sweden compared to other countries such as the UK where it’s originated from. And so, the construction industry in Sweden uses other professions for the roles that were supposed to be done by quantity surveyors or cost managers. As a result, the quantity surveyors that have penetrated the Swedish construction industry, face challenges to perform their duties specifically in this case, cost control due to several circumstances. This study has looked into different contractual challenges that face quantity surveyors while performing cost control in building projects. Also, recommendations have been made to help mitigate these challenges and improve cost control in projects. In this master thesis, qualitative study has been performed where quantity surveyors were interviewed regarding cost control and the contractual challenges, they face in building construction projects. The findings were analysed with a theoretical framework and discussed together with previous research and knowledge and in this study principal – agent theory was used. The results of the study showed that poor planning, late involvement of the quantity surveyors in projects, lack of effective communication and poor contract management are the main challenges that face quantity surveyor in performing cost control in building projects. To overcome these challenges, the author suggests that there is a need of increasing awareness on the importance of having quantity surveyors and clearly establish their roles in projects, have proper communication plan, proper contract management and improve skills on quantity surveying software. / Kvantitetbesiktningsman anses vara de mest kvalificerade kostnadsspecialisterna inom byggbranschen, med sina erfarenheter och färdigheter inom kostnadsstyrning och kontroll samt kontrakthantering. Denna roll är dock inte välkänd i Sverige jämfört med andra länder som Storbritannien där den härstammar från. Och så använder byggbranschen i Sverige andra yrken för de roller som skulle göras av kvantitetsmätare eller kostnadsansvariga. Som ett resultat står de kvantitetsmätare som har trängt igenom den svenska byggbranschen inför utmaningar att utföra sina uppgifter specifikt i detta fall, kostnadskontroll på grund av flera omständigheter. Denna studie har undersökt olika avtalsmässiga utmaningar som möter kvantitetsmätare när de utför kostnadskontroll i byggprojekt. Dessutom har rekommendationer gjorts för att mildra dessa utmaningar och förbättra kostnadskontrollen i projekt. I detta examensarbete har en kvalitativ studie utförts där kvantitetbesiktningsman intervjuades angående kostnadskontroll och de kontraktsmässiga utmaningar som de står inför i byggprojekt. Resultaten analyserades med en teoretisk ram och diskuterades tillsammans med tidigare forskning och kunskap och i denna studie användes princip - agentteori. Resultaten av studien visade att dålig planering, sen involvering av kvantitetsmätarna i projekt, brist på effektiv kommunikation och dålig kontrakthantering är de viktigaste utmaningarna för kvantitetsmätaren när det gäller att utföra kostnadskontroll i byggprojekt. För att övervinna dessa utmaningar föreslår författaren att det finns ett behov av att öka medvetenheten om vikten av att ha kvantitetsmätare och tydligt fastställa sina roller i projekt, ha korrekt kommunikationsplan, korrekt kontrakthantering och förbättra färdigheterna i kvantitetsmätningsprogramvara.