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[en] DETERMINANTS OF COUNTRY RISK : AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF BRAZIL AND THE EMERGENT COUNTRIES / [pt] DETERMINANTES DO RISCO-PAÍS: UMA ANÁLISE EMPÍRICA DO BRASIL E DOS PAÍSES EMERGENTESMARIANA FELIX FIGUEIREDO TEIXEIRA 07 October 2004 (has links)
[pt] O expressivo fluxo de capital externo direcionado aos
países emergentes ao longo dos anos 90 foi, e continua
sendo, objeto de estudo de muitas pesquisas acadêmicas
desenvolvidas na área de finanças internacionais. A
maioria destes estudos busca investigar empiricamente, em
que medida os fatores econômicos domésticos e externos
constituem-se em determinantes significativos do fluxo
internacional de capital. Semelhantemente, esse mesmo tipo
de análise tem sido freqüentemente realizado sob a ótica do
risco-país. A única diferença entre as duas análises é que
de um lado o interesse é em torno dos determinantes do
movimento de capital, do outro, o foco é sobre o movimento
dos preços dos ativos e dos bônus soberanos. Dado que uma
parte representativa dos fluxos de capital, ao longo da
década de 90, esteve direcionada para o mercado de títulos
da dívida pública dos países emergentes, motivada pelos
mais diversos fatores, o presente trabalho tem como
finalidade estudar essa dinâmica de preços com base em três
modelos: i) o primeiro modelo analisa os determinantes
econômicos internos do risco-país; ii) o segundo modelo tem
o mesmo propósito do primeiro, sendo que a variável grau de
aversão ao risco global, que serve de proxy para o
componente externo do risco, é incluída no grupo de
variáveis explicativas; iii) no último modelo, o enfoque é
sobre a relação entre o risco-país específico e os
fundamentos econômicos. Entendendo-se como risco
específico, o risco-país menos o componente externo. No
caso, o exercício em questão será aplicado para uma amostra
de países emergentes e especificamente para o Brasil. / [en] The expressive flow of external capital directed to the
emerging countries along 90's has been the subject of much
academic research developed in the area of international
finance. Most of these studies attempt to empirically
investigate how much country-especific and global factors
constitute significant determinants of capital flow.
Similarly, this kind of analysis has frequently taken place
under the view of country risk. The only difference between
the two analyses is that on the one side the major interest
is around the movements of the capital flow, whereas on the
other one it is around the price determination of sovereign
bonds. Given the fact that an important part of capital
flow along the 90's was linked to external debt bonds of
emerging market countries motivated by several reasons,
this dissertation has the goal of studying the economic
determinants of price variations based on three models: i)
the first model analyzes the domestics determinants of
country risk; ii) the second model has the same goal of the
first one; however, the global risk aversion variable,
which serves as proxy for the external risk component, is
included to the group of explanatory variables; iii) the
last model specifically focuses on the relationship between
country risk and economic fundamentals. It is important
that we understand as specific risk, the country risk
deprived from the external components. Therefore, the
following analysis will be applied to a sample of emerging
markets and especifically to Brazil.
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Scenario analysis 2022 : potential political risks facing foreign investors in the PRCKatainen, R. 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Since the beginning of the economic reforms in 1978, the People's Republic of China (PRC)
has attracted continuous interest from foreign investors, both in the form of foreign direct
investment (FDI) and international trade, making the PRC the second largest host of FDI in
the world. Despite occasional declines in foreign investment, foreign investors remain very
interested in the long-term prospects for doing business in the country. The PRC's phenominal
economic growth, large consumer market, the accession to the World Trade Organisation
(WTO), and the government's commitment to open markets, economic reforms, and
restructuring of the economy are amongst the factors that continue to attract foreign
investment and trade.
Despite the huge market potential and strong desire by foreign investors to do business in The
PRC, the track record of foreign companies and investments in the country have at best been
mixed. While some foreign investors have reaped large profits, others have failed to meet
their performance targets. Foreign investors have faced a number of problems that are not
market or trade related, but associated with economic, political and social trends and
developments, including corruption, nepotism, crime, poor infrastructure, a depleted banking
system, inefficient legal system, unemployment and poverty. Therefore, it is not surprising
that many foreign investors are asking themselves whether the benefits of doing business in
the PRC are worth the risks.
In an increasingly uncertain and instable international trade and investment environment
political risk assessment and management have become essential components of any
profitable foreign investment strategy. Consequently, numerous political risk-rating agencies
and a large number of both qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods have
emerged over the years. There is, however, neither general consensus regarding the definition
of political risk nor a comprehensively systematic method of conducting political risk
assessment. The definitions of political risk include a wide variety of indicators, ranging from
governmental actions to all non-market developments. The number of methods available for
political risk analysis range from informal, unsystematic assessments by a few individuals to
formal, systematic, and sophisticated risk analysis models. There are, however, some
similarities. The main objective of political risk analyses is to describe, explain, and forecast political conditions and events that affect the interests of foreign investors operating abroad or
planning to enter a foreign market. In addition, political risk analyses attempt to forecast
losses, and recommend means of managing the risk, avoiding the losses, and seizing the
opportunities.
Scenario planning is one of the qualitative methods used to analyse political risk. Scenario
planning, however, differs from most other approaches as it does not try to accurately predict
what will happen in the future or to provide the right tool for foreseeing the future
developments, but to offer a range of possible futures. The underlying assumption is that the
future cannot be forecast or predicted with certainty, but that the very process of thinking
about the future and exploring the implications of possible future scenarios may have a
profound impact on foreign investment and trade.
Scenario planning is a method that provides insightful information necessary to understand,
anticipate and respond to change and uncertainty in the future PRC. The development of four
20-year scenarios in this study demonstrates that the prospects for foreign investment can be
both positive and negative. When the economy continues to grow strongly, and the
government is able to maintain a stable environment and successfully implement the
necessary changes foreign investors are expected to reap the desired benefits. However, if the
problems facing the PRC at the moment further deteriorate foreign investors could expect
increased risks, and the possibility of failure. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Vanaf die begin van die ekonomiese transformasie in 1978, het die Volksrepubliek van Sjina
voortdurende belangstelling van buitelandse beleggers geniet. Hierdie belangstelling was
gemanifesteer in die vorm van direkte buitelandse belegging asook internasionale handel.
Sjina het so aanloklik vir buitelandse beleggers geword, dat dit tans die wêreld se tweede
grootste ontvanger van buitelandse belegging is, en beleggers stel veral belang in die lang
termyn moontlikhede van besigheid doen in die land. Die Volksrepubliek van Sjina se
merkwaardige ekonomiese groei, groot verbruikersmark, toetreding tot die Wêreld Handels
Organisasie, en die regering se verbintenis aan die ontwikkeling van 'n oop ekonomie,
ekonomiese transformasie en die herstrukturering van die ekonomie as sulks, is sommige van
die faktore wat toenemend buitelandse belegging en handel aanlok.
Ten spyte van die groot verbruikersmark potensiaal en die sterk begeerte van buitelandse
beleggers om besigheid te doen in die Volksrepubliek van Sjina, is die ervarings van
buitelandse maatskappye tot dusver gemeng. Alhoewel sommige buitelandse beleggers groot
wins gemaak het, het ander minder sukses ervaar. Buitelandse beleggers word ook
gekonfronteer met baie probleme wat nie noodwendig met die mark of handel gepaard gaan
nie. Hierdie probleme word geassosieer met ekonomiese, politieke en sosiale gebeure en
faktore insluitend korrupsie, misdaad, nepotisme, swak infrastruktuur, 'n ledige bank sisteem,
'n ondoeltreffende regssisteem, werkloosheid en armoede. Baie buitelandse beleggers
betwyfel dus moontlik die vraag of besigheid doen in die Volksrepubliek van Sjina tog meer
voordele inhou as risiko.
In 'n wêreld waar internasionale handel en belegging met onsekerheid en onstabiliteit gepaard
gaan, het die aspekte van politieke risiko skadebepaling en -bestuur belangrike komponente
van enige winsgewende buitelandse belegging strategie geword. Gevolglik het verskeie
politieke risiko-analise agentskappe asook 'n verskeie risiko-analise metodes van beide
kwantitatiewe en kwalitatiewe aard hul verskyning gemaak. Ten spyte van die bogenoemde is
daar nog steeds geen veralgemeende konsensus oor die definisie van politieke risiko, of 'n
oorsigtelik sistematiese metode van politieke risiko-skatting onderneem nie. Die definisies
van politieke risiko sluit in 'n groot verskeidenheid van indikatore wat wissel van
regeringaksies tot mark-onverwante gebeure. Die verskeidendheid van metodologië wat
gebruik word in politieke risiko-analise wissel van informeel, onsistematiese skattings, tot formele, sistematiese en gesofistikeerde risiko-analise modelle. Die primêre doel van
politieke risiko-analise is om te beskryf en te verduidelik, en ook om politieke omstandighede
en gebeurtenisse wat die belangstelling van buitelandse beleggers affekteer te voorspel.
Addisioneel beoog politieke risiko-analise om ook die moontlikheid van verlies te voorspel en
om 'n strategie vir die bestuur van die risiko aan te beveel, om sodoende verlies so ver
moontlik te vermy asook om moontlike geleenthede aan te gryp.
Senariobeplanning is een van die kwalitiatiewe metodes wat gebruik kan word in die analise
van politieke risiko. Senariobeplanning verskil van ander benaderings in die sin dat dit nie
akkurate voorspellings vir die toekoms as sulks maak nie, maar eerder 'n verskeidenheid van
moontlike toekomstige omstandighede weergee.
Die ontwikkeling van vier 20-jaar senarios vir die Volksrepubliek van Sjina in hierdie studie
illustreer hoe die uitsigte vir buitelandse belegging positief sowel as negatief kan wees.
Indien die Sjinese ekonomie verder groei en die regering in staat is om 'n stabiele omgewing
in stand te hou asook die nodige veranderings te implimenteer, kan buitelandse beleggers
verwag om beoogde voordele van buitelandse belegging te ervaar. Maar as die probleme wat
die Volksrepubliek van Sjina op die oomblik ervaar voortduur en lof verswak, kan buitelandse
beleggers verhoogde risiko sowel as die moontlikheid van mislukkings verwag.
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Political risk in South Africa for Taiwanese investors18 March 2015 (has links)
M.A. / Please refer to full text to view abstract
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The valuation of companies in emerging markets: a behavioural view with a private company perspectiveMtsweni, Bonisile Krystle January 2015 (has links)
Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2015. / Researchers have suggested that emerging markets’ activity is driven largely by unlisted
companies. These companies are dynamic, and show a relatively equitable income distribution.
However, they operate under severe challenges which can be a deterrent to their success. In
spite of these difficulties, the companies form exceptional investment targets due to their
innovative abilities, ability to customize products and formulate business models that reduce
bottlenecks and input costs as well as take advantage of economies of scale and scope.
Important risk factors such as: political, currency, corporate governance and information risks,
amongst others, should be factored in during the valuation process of emerging market
companies. In this paper, several criteria are used to assess thirteen popular emerging market
valuation models’ ability to effectively incorporate these risks.
Based on the outcomes of the assessment a best fit model is selected. However, none of the
emerging market valuation models explicitly factor in irrationality of market participants. In order
to address this, the study focuses on seven behavioural approaches to valuation under the
assumption of investor rationality and managerial overconfidence and/or optimism, with a
purpose to select one to include in the above mentioned “best fit” emerging market valuation
models. Next, assessment mechanisms for adapting these two models for private company
valuation were flagged by discussing approaches currently used in academia and corporate
finance. Finally, possible means of combining the three objectives, and assessing the success
of doing so, as an area for further research, were recommended.
Key Words: emerging markets, valuation, risk premium, country risk, systematic risk,
unsystematic risk, private companies, managerial overconfidence, managerial optimism,
irrationality, efficient markets, capital asset pricing model
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Varför är det viktigt att ta hänsyn till landsrisker på aktiemarknaden?Akaoui, Nancy, Strandberg, Jenny January 2011 (has links)
I dagens globaliserade samhälle är det enkelt att placera sitt kapital på olika marknader. Dock kan det innebära både risker och möjligheter för investeraren. Vilket betyder att det satsade kapitalet antingen kan bli en lönsam investering eller gå förlorat. Bör hänsyn tas till landsrisker på aktiemarknaden för att kunna bedöma investeringens lönsamhet? Syftet med studien är att ta reda på vilken betydelse landsrisker har för avkastningen i industri- respektive tillväxtländer. Men även undersöka om det finns något samband mellan avkastningen och penningmarknadsräntan samt korruption. Studiens utfall visar att det är viktigt att ta hänsyn till landsrisker på aktiemarknaden. Att högre risk genererar högre avkastning och vice versa. Detta gäller för både industri- och tillväxtländer. Det oförväntade utfallet i denna studie är att industriländerna har en högre risk och därmed en högre avkastning i jämförelse med tillväxtländerna. Den finansiella faktorn penningmarknadsräntan är av mindre betydelse för avkastningen i ett land. Samtidigt är den politiska faktorn korruption en väsentlig risk att ta hänsyn till vid investeringar i främmande länder. / In today's globalized society, it is easy to invest in different markets. That involves both risks and opportunities for the investor. This means that the capital may either be a profitable investment or not. Should one take into account country risks in the stock market to assess the profitability of the investment? The purpose of this study is to determine what importance the country risk has to the return in the stock market at both developed and emerging countries. But also to investigate whether there is any correlation between income and the money market rate and corruption. The results of this study show that it is important to take into account country risks in the stock market. Higher risk generates higher returns in the stock market and vice versa. This can be applied to both developed and emerging countries. The unexpected outcome of this study is that developed countries have a higher risk than the emerging countries and therefore a higher return in the stock market. The financial factor – money market rate – is of minor importance for the return. Meanwhile, the political factor – corruption – is a significant risk to consider when investing in foreign countries.
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The Model of Credit Rating for Country RiskChen, Liang-kuang 10 June 2004 (has links)
none
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Effectiveness of the Flowchart Approach to Industrial Cluster Policy in AsiaKuchiki, Akifumi 07 1900 (has links)
No description available.
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[en] COUSIN RISKS: THE EXTENT AND THE CAUSES OF POSITIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN COUNTRY AND CURRENCY RISKS / [pt] RISCOS PRIMOS: UMA INVESTIGAÇÃO ACERCA DA OCORRÊNCIA E DAS CAUSAS DA CORRELAÇÃO ENTRE O RISCO PAÍS E O RISCO CAMBIALALEXANDRE LOWENKRON 17 October 2003 (has links)
[pt] Esta dissertação estuda o fenômeno da correlação positiva
entre o risco país e o risco cambial. A presença deste
fenômeno é nociva às economias, pois as torna mais
vulneráveis a choques recessivos. O trabalho busca,
primeiramente, identificar qual a extensão do fenômeno
separando uma amostra de 25 países em dois grupos: os que
apresentam correlação positiva entre o risco país e o
risco
cambial e os que não apresentam. Baseado nesta divisão,
em
seguida é feita uma investigação de quais seriam os
fatores
determinantes do fenômeno. Os resultados indicam que o
descasamento cambial e o baixo grau de aprofundamento
financeiro estão fortemente associados com a presença do
fenômeno. / [en] This dissertation studies the positive correlation between
country and currency risks observed in some countries. The
presence of this phenomenon is harmful to the economies,
since it brings more vulnerability to recessive shocks.
The first aim of this paper is to identify the extension of
this phenomenon by separating a sample of 25 countries in
two groups: the one where the positive correlation is
observed and the one where it is not. Based on that that
taxonomy, it is implemented an investigation on what are
the factors responsible for the phenomenon. The results
show that exchange rate mismatch and underdeveloped
financial markets are strongly associated with the presence
of positive correlation between the two risks.
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[en] DETERMINANTS OF BRASILIAN SOVEREIG RISK / [pt] FATORES DETERMINANTES DO RISCO BRASILCHRISTIAN VINCENT S. DE CASTRO NEVES 27 January 2004 (has links)
[pt] O presente estudo tem por objetivo entender as variáveis
que influenciaram o comportamento do Risco Soberano do
Brasil no período de janeiro de 1995 a março de 2003. Para
isso, usam-se os métodos estatísticos conhecidos como
Regressão Múltipla e Matriz de Correlação de Pearson, assim
como uma pesquisa profunda nos artigos sobre este tema.
Apresenta-se como resultado do trabalho uma indicação da
força que as variáveis conjunturais (nacionais e
internacionais) possuem frente às variáveis econômicas
(estruturais). Além disso, deixa-se como um desafio para
novas pesquisas o desenvolvimento de um modelo preditivo
baseando-se em Séries Temporais e nas dificuldades
existentes neste trabalho. / [en] This study is designed to understand the variables that
explain the Brazilian Sovereign Risk. To fulfill such an
objective, statistical methods known as Multiple Regression
and Pearson Correlation and analysis of many papers about
this subject are employed. As result of this work, the
study shows the power of external variables against
economic variables to explain the behavior of Brazilian
Sovereign Risk. The study shows too some economic variables
that are significant to explain the behavior of Brazilian
Sovereign Risk, as realized at the papers. Finally, a
challenger to develop a Time Series model in order to
forecast de Brazilian Sovereign Risk is placed.
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Influencia del riesgo país peruano sobre la inversión extranjera directa para el periodo 2002-2016Peña-Romero, Luis-Enrique-Genaro January 2017 (has links)
El objetivo principal de esta investigación es analizar el impacto que tiene el riesgo país sobre la inversión extranjera directa, teniendo en cuenta los factores que afectan significativamente a la variable de estudio. Mediante este estudio se mostró que los inversionistas extranjeros, dentro de los factores más importantes, toman principalmente en cuenta el riesgo país como variable de medida para la toma de decisiones de sus inversiones en el país.
Los objetivos específicos de la presente investigación buscan establecer una relación causal de la inversión extranjera directa con el nivel de apertura comercial, el nivel de consumo de la economía, las reservas internacionales netas y el índice general de la bolsa de valores de Lima, durante el periodo enero del 2002 hasta diciembre del 2016. / Trabajo de investigación
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