The performance of financial institutions is significantly influenced by the actions of loan officers. The process by which lending decisions are made is therefore of critical interest to management, shareholders, and regulators alike. Indeed, the drain on bank capital that has often accompanied credit quality problems in the past has encouraged the search for new approaches towards the management of lending and related activities. / This thesis seeks to examine whether existing governance and incentive techniques found in banks are sufficiently comprehensive in guiding loan decision-making. In the context of lending to the corporate sector, the study investigates the endogenous and exogenous influences surrounding the lending role, and assesses the implications for how loan officers are monitored, evaluated, and motivated to act in a financial institution’s best interests. / By first developing an expanded model that conceptualizes the loan offer function, and then grounding this framework within a business cycle context, the study demonstrates the potential for governance and reward systems, that are constant through time, to have variable outcomes/effects. Support for this hypothesis is provided based on publicly available financial market information and other material gathered from private sources. A proposal is then advanced for the development of a management information system that identifies changes in credit standards being applied, thereby enabling banks to benchmark and influence loan officer performance in the context of cyclically changing attitudes to risk and the effects on negotiating power.

The performance of financial institutions is significantly influenced by the actions of loan officers. The process by which lending decisions are made is therefore of critical interest to management, shareholders, and regulators alike. Indeed, the drain on bank capital that has often accompanied credit quality problems in the past has encouraged the search for new approaches towards the management of lending and related activities. / This thesis seeks to examine whether existing governance and incentive techniques found in banks are sufficiently comprehensive in guiding loan decision-making. In the context of lending to the corporate sector, the study investigates the endogenous and exogenous influences surrounding the lending role, and assesses the implications for how loan officers are monitored, evaluated, and motivated to act in a financial institution’s best interests. / By first developing an expanded model that conceptualizes the loan offer function, and then grounding this framework within a business cycle context, the study demonstrates the potential for governance and reward systems, that are constant through time, to have variable outcomes/effects. Support for this hypothesis is provided based on publicly available financial market information and other material gathered from private sources. A proposal is then advanced for the development of a management information system that identifies changes in credit standards being applied, thereby enabling banks to benchmark and influence loan officer performance in the context of cyclically changing attitudes to risk and the effects on negotiating power.

Excessive lending activity of banks is considered to be one of the causes of the recent financial and economic crisis. The theme of this thesis is to evaluate the relation of credit and the business cycle in the euro area countries and explore the differences which have been among these countries recorded. The primary objective of this work is the analysis of the credit cycle in these countries and its develoment from 2000 to the present. The paper will address further the question of whether financial markets can create for themselves economic imbalances through endogenous credit "booms". First part will deal with the theory off business cycles, then with alternative approaches, namely the Financial Instability Hypothesis of Hyman Minsky and followed by the latest theoretical knowledge on the issue of credit cycles. The next part will focus on identifying and analysing factors playing the significant role in the development of the economy in the pre-crisis period. The following section will be devoted to the international comparison of the credit and business cycles in the euro area (selection of those states that were more resistant to crisis and those sensitive to the crisis). The conclusion will address some recommendations for the policies of central banks, which may in turn reduce the pro-cyclical effects of developing leverage.

This dissertation proposes stress testing of a bank’s corporate credit portfolio in a Basel Internal Ratings Based (IRB) framework, using publicly available macroeconomic variables. Corporate insolvencies are used to derive a credit cycle index, which is linked to macroeconomic variables through a multiple regression model. Probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) that are conditional on the worst state of the credit cycle are derived from through-the-cycle PDs and LGDs. These are then used as stressed inputs into the Basel regulatory and Economic capital calculation for credit risk. Contrary to the usual expert judgement stress testing approaches, where management apply their subjective view to stress the portfolio, this approach allows macroeconomic variables to guide the severity of selected stress testing scenarios. The result is a robust stress testing framework using Rösch and Scheule (2008) conditional LGD that is correlated to the stressed PD. The downturn LGD used here is an alternative to the widely used Federal Reserve downturn LGD which assumes no correlation between PDs and LGDs. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / gm2014 / Mathematics and Applied Mathematics / Unrestricted

Subject of the diploma thesis is a broad analysis of financial cycles that are often behind other financial topics and their clear and precise understanding is still not sufficient, despite their high significance, and indeed a critical issue for financial stability. The paper will discuss indicators of financial cycles, we can ask ourselves how each financial cycles, meaning equity, credit and real estate prices, are synchronized with each other, but also toward the economic cycle, and what consequences this synchronization brings looking at different scenarios. The turning point in the boom phase is often triggered by the financial crisis, so we look if it is possible to predict these breaks in time. We discuss the recommended adaptations of policies to the financial cycle and in the final phase of diploma work will focus on the analysis of financial cycle in the Czech Republic.

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This paper highlights the amplifier mechanism that has the evolution of exchange rate on the credit cycle in an economy with high financial dollarization, one mechanism that has been called «the exchange rate accelerator». In this scenario, the natural procyclicality between the business cycle and credit cycle goes into the background, but perhaps not fade. The paper develops the theoretical framework underlying the transmission mechanism and shows some stylized facts of Peruvian credit system. The following presents an econometric model with panel data to estimate the effect of exchange rate accelerator on the evolution of credit default in the credit system institutions. From these empirical results, and under Basel II philosophy, the paper discusses how to implement, in banks and other credit institutions, prudential regulation that requires the allocation of provisions and capital for credit risk arising from exchange rate risk caused by foreign currency loans. The basic idea of these measures would help the system to internalize the externalities produced by this non-diversifiable risk factor. / En este trabajo se pone en evidencia el mecanismo amplificador que tiene la evolución del tipo de cambio sobre el ciclo crediticio en una economía con alta dolarización financiera, un mecanismo que se puede denominar «acelerador cambiario». En este contexto, la natural prociclicidad entre el ciclo económico y el ciclo crediticio pasa a un segundo plano, si es que no se desvanece. El documento desarrolla el marco teórico que sustenta el mecanismo de transmisión y muestra algunos hechos estilizados del sistema crediticio peruano. A continuación se plantea un modelo econométrico con datos de panel para estimar el efecto del acelerador cambiario sobre la evolución de la mora crediticia en las entidades del sistema. A partir de estos resultados empíricos, y bajo la filosofía de Basilea II, se discute la forma de implementar, en los bancos y demás entidades de crédito, una regulación prudencial que requiera la asignación de provisiones y de capital para el riesgo crediticio derivado del riesgo cambiario originado por los créditos en moneda extranjera. La idea básica es promover la internalización de las externalidades producidas por este factor de riesgo no diversificable.

Submitted by Melissa Forti (melissaforti@gmail.com) on 2018-09-03T12:07:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Melissa_Forti_dissertacao.pdf: 2661806 bytes, checksum: a588904f04c4b3d523f82e716231ffd6 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2018-09-03T17:14:01Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Melissa_Forti_dissertacao.pdf: 2661806 bytes, checksum: a588904f04c4b3d523f82e716231ffd6 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-09-04T13:30:27Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Melissa_Forti_dissertacao.pdf: 2661806 bytes, checksum: a588904f04c4b3d523f82e716231ffd6 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-04T13:30:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Melissa_Forti_dissertacao.pdf: 2661806 bytes, checksum: a588904f04c4b3d523f82e716231ffd6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-08 / A necessidade de conhecer o cliente sempre foi um diferencial para o mercado e nestes últimos anos vivenciamos um crescimento exponencial de informações e técnicas que promovem a avaliação para todas as fases do ciclo de crédito, desde a prospecção até a recuperação de dívidas. Nesse contexto, as empresas estão investindo cada vez mais em métodos de Machine Learning para que possam extrair o máximo de informações e assim terem processos mais assertivos e rentáveis. No entanto, essas técnicas possuem ainda alguma desconfiança no ambiente financeiro. Diante desse contexto, o objetivo desse trabalho foi aplicar as técnicas de Machine Learning: Random Forest, Support Vector Machine e Gradient Boosting para um banco de dados real de cobrança, a fim de identificar os clientes mais propensos a quitar suas dívidas (Collection Score) e comparar a acurácia e interpretação desses modelos com a metodologia tradicional de Regressão Logística. A principal contribuição desse trabalho está relacionada com a comparação das técnicas em um cenário de recuperação de crédito considerando as principais características, vantagens e desvantagens. / The need to know the customer has always been a differential for the market, and in currently years we have experienced an exponential growth of information and techniques that promote this evaluation for all phases of the credit cycle, from prospecting to debt recovery. In this context, companies are increasingly investing in Machine Learning methods, so that they can extract the maximum information and thus have more assertive and profitable processes. However, these models still have a lot of distrust in the financial environment. Given this need and uncertainty, the objective of this work was to apply the Machine Learning techniques: Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and Gradient Boosting to a real collection database in order to identify the recover clients (Collection Score) and to compare the accuracy and interpretation of these models with the classical logistic regression methodology. The main contribution of this work is related to the comparison of the techniques and if they are suitable for this application, considering its main characteristics, pros and cons.

The theoretical part of the thesis introduces Austrian theory of business cycles and analyses equilibrium of savings and investments together with the transmission mechanism between savings, deposits, loans and investments. The practical part of the thesis explores business cycle and credit cycle. It analyses an excessive loan expansion of commercial banks together with a excessively expansive policy of central bank. The thesis deals with a procyclical action of commercial banks and contemporary tools of central bank with their limited effectiveness. Furthermore, the thesis analyses the possible adjustments of monetary policy with the emphasis on the macroprudential policy and its individual credit indicators. The end of the thesis deals with the method of credit rationing and with the imbalance between demand and supply at the credit market of non-financial corporations, which is modelled using the technique of disequilibrium model.

The thesis tries to explain different nature of the dynamics during the upward and downward part of the last house price cycle in Spain, characterized by important rigidities. Covered bonds are introduced as an instrument which may accelerate a house price boom, while it may also serve as a source of correction to overvalued house prices in downturn. In a serious economic stress, lack of investment opportunities motivates investors to buy the covered bonds due to the strong guarantees provided, which may in turn help to revitalize the credit and housing markets. To address such regime shift, house price dynamics is modelled within a framework of mutually related house price, credit and business cycles using smooth transition vector autoregressive model. Linear behaviour of such system is rejected, indicating the need to model house prices in a nonlinear framework. Also, importance of modelling house prices in the context of credit and business cycles is confirmed. Possible causality from issuance of covered bonds to house price dynamics was identified in this nonlinear structure. Finally, threat to financial stability resulting from rising asset encumbrance both in the upward and downward part of the house price cycle was identified, stressing the need to model impact of the covered bonds on house prices in...