We introduce a new insurance instrument allowing retirees to hedge against risk of mortality and risk of default. At retirement, the retiree is allowed to purchase an annuity that provides a defaultable income stream over his lifetime. The time of mortality and time of default are both uncertain, but are accompanied by determined hazard rates. The retiree will make consumption and investment choices throughout his lifetime, which have certain restrictions: the retiree can never enter a bankruptcy state (negative total wealth), and the investment choices are made in a risk-free financial instrument (such as a treasury bill or bond) and a risky instrument (such as commodities or stock). The retiree also makes insurance premium payments which hedge against mortality and default risks simultaneously. This new form of insurance is one which can be implemented by financial institutions as a means for retirees to protect their illiquid assets. In doing so, we calculate the optimal annuity rate a retiree should purchase to maximize his utility of consumption and bequest.Throughout the paper, we develop stochastic control models for a retiree's optimal investment and consumption policies over an uncertain planning horizon in several models which may or may not allow for insurance purchases. We find exact solutions to several models, and apply dynamic programming and the logarithmic transformation to other models to find numerical solutions when constraints are needed. We also analyze the effects of loading on insurance, analyzing the effects of more expensive insurance on the retiree's control policies and value functions. In particular, we will consider the model in which the retiree can purchase life insurance and credit default insurance (in the form of a credit default swap, or CDS) separately to hedge against life events. CDS's do not exist for annuities, but we extend this model by incorporating life insurance and the CDS into a single entity, which can be a viable, and realistic, option to hedge against risk. This model is beneficial in providing a solution to the annuity problem by showing that minimal annuity purchase is optimal.

In this paper dependence between credit default swap (CDS) values and stock price movements of the largest European banking groups is examined and effectiveness of the usage of CDS contracts as a tool to hedge exposure to the price movements of the underlying stock during the pre-crisis and crisis periods is assessed. The effectiveness is evaluated by comparing estimated Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures of portfolios consisting of stocks and CDS vis-à-vis portfolios consisting of only stocks. CDS are valued using mark-to-market approach. Marginal distributions of CDS value changes and stock returns are estimated using Kernel density estimate from historical time-series data of daily stock returns and CDS value changes. Dependence between marginal distributions is estimated using Gaussian, Gumbel and Student‟s t copulas. Random portfolio values are simulated using Monte Carlo Simulation from estimated copulas parameters and marginal distributions for daily, quarterly and yearly time horizons. VaR and ES with 90%, 95% and 99% confidence level are estimated from the simulated portfolio return distribution. The results show that there is a significant negative dependence between CDS values and stock prices during financial crisis while dependence is weak in the pre-crisis period. The main finding of the paper is that CDS added into the portfolio of stocks significantly reduces VaR and ES of a portfolio during the period of financial crisis while they... [to full text] / Šiame darbe tikrinama didţiausių Europos bankų grupių kredito rizikos apsikeitimo sandorių (CDS) ir akcijų kainų priklausomybė bei vertinamas CDS efektyvumas, jei jais draudţiamasi nuo akcijų kainų svyravimų prieš kriziniu ir kriziniu laikotarpiu. Efektyvumas yra įvertinamas lyginant apskaičiuotas rizikos vertes (VaR) ir tikėtinus vertės trūkumus (ES) dviejų portfelių: akcijų portfelio bei akcijų ir CDS portfelio. CDS vertinti yra naudojamas pagal rinką vertinimo būdas (mark-to-market approach). CDS verčių pasikeitimo ir akcijų grąţos ribiniai pasiskirstymai yra įvertinami, naudojant Kernel įvertinimą (Kernel Estimator) iš istorinių akcijų grąţų ir CDS verčių pokyčių duomenų. Priklausomybė tarp ribinių pasiskirstymų yra įvertinama naudojant Gauso, Gumbelio ir Studento t kopulas (copulas). Atsitiktinės portfelių vertės yra susimuliuojamos naudojant Monte Carlo simuliaciją, pritaikant kopulų parametrus bei kintamųjų ribinius pasiskirstymus vienos dienos, ketvirčio bei metų periodams. VaR ir ES su 90%, 95% ir 99% pasitikėjimo intervalais yra skaičiuojami iš susimuliuotų portfelio grąţų pasiskirstymo. Gauti rezultatai rodo, kad tarp akcijų kainų ir CDS verčių yra stipri priklausomybė krizės laikotarpiu, tuo tarpu prieš kriziniu laikotarpiu priklausomybė yra silpna. Pagrindinė darbo išvada yra ta, jog CDS įtraukti į akcijų portfelį reikšmingai sumaţina portfelio VaR ir ES kriziniu laikotarpiu, tačiau nesumaţina prieš kriziniu laikotarpiu. Portfelio rizika gali būti sumaţinta, jei... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]

Cette thèse étudie la dynamique du marché des credit default swaps (CDS), instruments financiers de transfert du risque du crédit, et de ses relations avec les autres marchés, en particulier durant les épisodes de crise. Le marché des CDS a connu un développement vigoureux depuis son émergence, au milieu des années 90. Les volumes de contrats de CDS échangés ont augmenté à un rythme rapide, ce marché a ainsi connu le développement le plus rapide parmi les dérivés négociés de gré-à-gré (over-the-counter - OTC). Les participants de marché, principalement les grandes banques, ont su tirer parti des possibilités offertes par les outils de transfert de risque qui leur ont permis tout d'abord, de disposer d'instruments novateurs de protection contre le risque de crédit, mais aussi d'assurer l'expansion de leur activité d'intermédiation du crédit tout en optimisant les exigences en capital. Bien que le fonctionnement du marché des CDS ait connu une amélioration depuis le début des années 2000, plusieurs éléments mettent en doute l'hypothèse d'un marché efficient et résilient aux périodes de crise. A travers cinq articles empiriques, cette thèse se penche sur deux épisodes de crises durant lesquels le fonctionnement de ce marché a pu être perturbé : d'une part la crise de mai 2005, provoquée par la dégradation en catégorie spéculative de deux entreprises américaines majeures, General Motors et Ford, par les principales agences de notation ; d'autre part la crise financière ayant débuté en 2007 et qui a évolué en crise de la dette souveraine dans le cas des Etats européens à partir de fin 2009. L'étude de ces deux phases de crise montre que le développement du marché des CDS a participé à modifier les relations entre marchés, les investisseurs ayant fait des primes de CDS une source d'information privilégiée pour évaluer le risque de crédit. En effet, les travaux empiriques menés tout au long de la thèse concluent que ce marché est devenu progressivement le lieu où tendait à se dérouler le processus de découverte des prix. Ces travaux mettent également en lumière les vulnérabilités du marché des CDS, renforcées par des effets de contagion déjà à l'œuvre lors de l'épisode de crise de 2005, et incitent à une meilleure régulation des outils de transfert du risque de crédit et, d'une manière plus générale, des dérivés OTC.

Different capital regulatory requirements in the bank and insurer markets lead to finding and using of new more complex financial tools linked with capital release and subsequent optimization of the investment objectives, but they are also linked with promises and risk transfers that could cause a collapse or a systemic risk of the financial markets, as evidence by the recent financial crisis. The aim of my work is to examine the behavior of credit default swap spreads on the securitization and reinsurance markets, followed by analyzing arbitrage conditions between securitization and reinsurance markets by cointegration analysis. The thesis focuses on Italy because it is one of four main European players in the securitization market and it has highly developed bank and insurer markets. Moreover, it still faces to consequences of the recent financial crisis that is indicator of strong possible bases for above mentioned complex financial instruments. On the dataset of Top 8 Italian banks and insurer companies in the period 2006 - 2012 I showed by cointegration analysis a presence of just one cointegration relationship between securitization and reinsurance market, therefore I rejected possibility of arbitrage between these markets. But on the other hand, they converge to long term equilibrium slowly...

This thesis analyses long and short-term perception of announcements issued by leading credit rating agencies (Fitch, Moody's and S&P) in sovereign bond markets. Using three empirical approaches we assess the nature of impact of CRAs on 10Y sovereign bond yields and 5Y CDS of 24 countries of EU between 2002 and 2012. We find significant response of sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads to downgrades and negative outlooks. Furthermore there is evidence of anticipative power of sovereign bond markets in foreseeing negative events implying CRAs lag the market. The spillover effect from credit rating announcements has been revealed between both EMU and non-EMU parts of EU implying the financial integration is not limited only to countries with common currency. Well performing economies outside EMU are resistant to contagion. JEL Classification C23, F34, G10, G14, G15 Keywords credit rating; credit default swap; rating agency; sovereign bond; EU Author's e-mail tomhav@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail roman.horvath@gmail.com

This dissertation comprises two essays; the first of which investigates sovereign credit risk interdependencies, while the second examines the reaction of corporate credit risk to sovereign credit risk events. The first essay titled, Characterizing Sovereign Credit Risk Interdependencies: Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market, investigates the relationships that exist among disparate sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and the implications on sovereign creditworthiness. We exploit emerging market sovereign CDS spreads to examine the reaction of sovereign credit risk to changes in country-specific and global financial factors. Utilizing aVAR model fitted with DCC GARCH, we find that comovements of spreads generally exhibit significant time-varying correlations, suggesting that spreads are commonly affected by global financial factors. We construct 19 country-specific commodity price indexes to instrument for country terms of trade, obtaining significant results. Our commodity price indexes account for significant variation in CDS spreads, controlling for global financial factors. In addition, sovereign spreads are found to be related to U.S. stock market returns and the VIX volatility risk premium global factors. Notwithstanding, our results suggest that terms of trade and commodity prices have a statistically and economically significant effect on the sovereign credit risk of emerging economies. Our results apply broadly to investors, financial institutions and policy makers motivated to utilize profitable factors in global portfolios. The second essay is titled, Differential Stock Market Returns and Corporate Credit Risk of Listed Firms. This essay explores the information transfer effect of shocks to sovereign credit risk as captured in the CDS and stock market returns of cross-listed and local stock exchange listed firms. Based on changes in sovereign credit ratings and outlooks, we find that widening CDS spreads of firms imply that negative credit events dominate, whereas tightening spreads indicate positive events. Grouping firms into companies with cross-listings and those without, we compare the spillover effects and find strong evidence of contagion across equity and CDS markets in both company groupings. Our findings suggest that the sensitivity of corporate CDS prices to sovereign credit events is significantly larger for non-cross-listed firms. Possible reasons for this finding could in fact be due to cross-listed firms’ better access to external capital and less degree of asymmetric information, relative to non-cross-listed peers with lower level of investor recognition. Our results provide new evidence relevant to investors and financial institutions in determining sovereign credit risk germane to corporate financial risk, for the construction of debt and equity portfolios, and hedging considerations in today’s dynamic environment.

Der erste Artikel analysiert den Einfluss von CDS Handel auf Kreditsyndizierung. Theoretisch können CDS sowohl positive wie auch negative Effekte haben. Auf der einen Seite sind CDS flexiblere Risikomanagement-Instrumente als Kredit Verkäufe. Auf der andern Seite kann ein Kreditgeber nicht glaubhaft versichern einen Kreditnehmer zu überwachen, wenn Kreditrisiko anonym mit CDS abgelegt werden kann (moral hazard). Wir finden, dass Kreditgeber signifikant höhere Anteile an Krediten halten, wenn CDS auf das Fremdkapital des Kreditnehmers gehandelt werden. Wir finden keine Evidenz für moral hazard. Der zweite Artikel untersucht den Einfluss von Manager Optimismus auf die Verwendung von performance-abhängigen Vertragsklauseln in Kreditverträgen (PSD). Gegeben ihrer verzerrten Erwartungen über die zukünftige Performance der Firma könnten optimistische Manager PSD als günstige Finanzierungsmöglichkeit ansehen. Wir finden, dass optimistische Manager mehr PSD nutzen und schlechter nach der Ausgabe von PSD performen als rationale Manager. Der dritte Artikel untersucht, ob PSD genutzt werden kann um hold-up Probleme in langfristigen Kreditbeziehungen zu verringern. Wir finden, dass PSD mehr in Hausbankbeziehungen genutzt wird – insbesondere wenn der Kreditnehmer wenig alternative Finanzierungsmöglichkeiten besitzt. Des Weiteren finden wir einen Substitutionseffekt zwischen der Stärkte von Finanz-Covenants und der Nutzung von PSD. Diese Resultate stützen die Hypothese, dass PSD genutzt wird um hold-up Probleme zu mindern. / The first paper analyzes the impact of credit default swap (CDS) trading on loan syndication. Theoretically, CDS can have both positive and negative effects. One the one hand, CDS are a flexible risk management tool and can therefore replace loan sales (risk management). On the other hand, lenders can no longer credibly commit to monitor a borrower if laying off credit risk anonymously via CDS is possible making loan sales costly (moral hazard). We find that lenders retain significantly higher shares of loans once CDS are actively traded on a borrower’s debt. We find no evidence for moral hazard. The second paper examines the impact of managerial optimism on the inclusion of performance-pricing provisions in debt contracts (PSD). Given their upwardly biased expectations about the firm''s future cash flow, optimistic managers may view PSD as a relatively cheap form of financing. We find that optimistic managers are more likely to issue PSD. Consistent with their biased expectations, firms with optimistic managers perform worse than firms with rational managers after issuing PSD. The third paper examines if PSD is used to reduce hold- up problems in long-term lending relationships. We find that the use of PSD is more common in the presence of a long-term lending relationship and if the borrower has fewer financing alternatives available. Further, we find a substitution effect between the use of PSD and the tightness of financial covenants. This result also supports our hypothesis that hold-up concerns motivate the use of PSD.

The paper is concerned with counterparty credit risk management for credit default swaps in the presence of default contagion. In particular, we study the impact of default contagion on credit value adjustments such as the BCCVA (Bilateral Collateralized Credit Value Adjustment) of Brigo et al. 2012 and on the performance of various collateralization strategies. We use the incomplete-information model of Frey and Schmidt (2012) as vehicle for our analysis. We find that taking contagion effects into account is important for the effectiveness of the strategy and we derive refined collateralization strategies to account for contagion effects. (authors' abstract) / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

The first-to-default Credit Default Swap (CDS) with multiple assets is priced when the default barrier is changing over time, which is contrast to the assumption in most of the structural-form models. The survival function of each asset follows the lognormal distribution and the interest rate is constant over time in this article. We define the joint survival function of these assets by employing the normal and Student-t copula functions to characterize the dependence among different default probability of each asset. In addition, we investigate the empirical evidences in the pricing of CDS with two or three companies by changing the values of parameters in the model. The more interesting results show that the joint default probability increases as these assets are more positive correlated. Consequently, the price of the first-to-default CDS is much higher.

Incomplete markets provide many challenges for both investment decisions and valuation problems. While both problems have received extensive attention in complete markets, there remain many open areas in the theory of incomplete markets. We present the results in three parts. In the first essay we consider the Merton investment problem of optimal portfolio choice when the traded instruments are the set of zero-coupon bonds. Working within a Markovian Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework of the interest rate term structure driven by an infinite dimensional Wiener process, we give sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an optimal investment strategy. When there is uniqueness, we provide a characterization of the optimal portfolio. Furthermore, we show that a specific Gauss-Markov random field model can be treated within this framework, and explicitly calculate the optimal portfolio. We show that the optimal portfolio in this case can be identified with the discontinuities of a certain function of the market parameters. In the second essay we price a claim, using the indifference valuation methodology, in the model presented in the first section. We appeal to the indifference pricing framework instead of the classic Black-Scholes method due to the natural incompleteness in such a market model. Because we price time-sensitive interest rate claims, the units in which we price are very important. This will require us to take care in formulating the investor’s utility function in terms of the units in which we express the wealth function. This leads to new results, namely a general change-of-numeraire theorem in incomplete markets via indifference pricing. Lastly, in the third essay, we propose a method to price credit derivatives, namely collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) using indifference. We develop a numerical algorithm for pricing such CDOs. The high illiquidity of the CDO market coupled with the allowance of default in the underlying traded assets creates a very incomplete market. We explain the market-observed prices of such credit derivatives via the risk aversion of investors. In addition to a general algorithm, several approximation schemes are proposed. / text