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This thesis examines the performance of currency-only portfolios with different strategies, in out-of-sample analysis. I first examine a number of passive portfolio strategies into currency market in out-of-sample analysis. The strategies I applied in this chapter include sample-based mean-variance portfolio and its extension, minimum variance portfolio, and equally-weighted risk contribution model. Moreover, I consider GDP portfolio and Trade portfolio as market value portfolio for currency market. With naïve portfolio, there are 12 different asset allocation models. In my out-of-sample analysis, naïve portfolio performs reasonably well among all 12 portfolios, and transaction cost does not seriously affect the results prior to transaction cost analysis. The results are robust across different estimation windows and perspectives of investors from different countries. Next, more portfolio strategies are examined to compare with naïve portfolio in currency market. The first portfolio strategy called ‘optimal constrained portfolio’ in this chapter is derived from the idea of maximising the quadratic utility function. In addition, the timing strategies, a set of simple active portfolio strategies, are also considered. In my out-of-sample analysis with rolling sample approach, naïve portfolio can be beaten by all the strategies discussed in this chapter. In chapter six, the characteristics of currency are exploited to construct a currency only portfolio. Firstly, the pre-sample test proves that the characteristics, both fundamental and financial, are relevant to the portfolio construction. I then examine the performance of parametric portfolio policies. The results show that while fundamental characteristics can bring investor benefits of active portfolio management, financial characteristics cannot. Moreover, I find the relationship between characteristics of currency and weights of optimal portfolio. The overall results show that currencies can be thought of as an asset in their own right to construct optimal portfolios, which have better performance than naïve portfolio, if suitable strategies are used. In addition, ‘lesser’ currencies, indeed, bring significant benefits to the investors.

外匯資產組合的主要風險通常來自於：貨幣風險、市場風險、信用風險、流動性風險以及操作風險。貨幣風險指的是因為匯率波動所造成的資本市場損失。VaR是最常被用來衡量此種風險的指標。然而，由於VaR的某些特性，使得它在用來衡量資產組合風險時有許多限制。 CVaR則是一較佳的衡量指標。它的好處在於它符合數學的性質。在本文中，我們利用兩階段求解的概念，這使得我們可輕易的將CVaR的概念作更多的延伸。我們導入ICC的概念來計算CVaR，這讓CVaR更為直覺，也因此更易使用。因此，只要確認損失來源，並將隨機變數帶入損失方程式，即可知道該資產組合所需承擔的風險。 最後，我們利用這個模型，從央行的角度來討論台灣的外匯市場。我們利用CVaRMin來進行討論並歸納一些結論以供後續研究使用。 / The main risk of a foreign asset portfolio usually comes from: currency risk, market risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, and operation risk. Currency risk is the risk of capital market losses as a consequence of fluctuations in exchange rate. VaR is the most frequently used concept for measuring market risk and recently is applied to currency risk. However VaR is somewhat restricted when it is used to measure the risk of a portfolio management. CVaR is an alternative. The superiority of CVaR lies in its accordance to mathematical properties. In this study, we apply the concept of two-stage recourse model intuition in management of risk and then easily extend the approach of CVaR. We introduce the ICC. This makes CVaR more straightforward. As long as one can identify the source of losses and substitute the random factors into shortage function, he can easily know the risk he will take. Finally we discuss Taiwan foreign exchange management from a view point of the Central Bank. We conduct this experiment by a solver called CVaRMin and summarize some points for further researches.

This diploma thesis deals with possibility to invest into currency market with a view to small investors. The work includes the characteristics of currency market, analysis of influences which affects on it and elaborates trading strategy to get profit with regard to minimal risk for investor.

The main objective of this thesis is to design and optimize an automated trading system so as to achive stable equity curve and profit. This model is tested on historical and current market data. Area of trading in the currency markets by using automated trading systems is very large and therefore the biggest focus is on current aproaches to technical analysis, automated systems and summarizes interesting ideas which are used to design my own automated strategy. After completing system design and optimization of the selected input parameters follows its testing on historical data and simulation of real market environment. In both cases the equity curve is profitable and shows a trend of steady growth.

This thesis addresses the analysis and design of automatic trading system on currency markets using breakout strategy for capital appreciation for company ALFA – zdravá výživa. The description of implementation of this strategy on chosen trading platform and its summary will represent an output of this thesis.

This thesis deals with the design, implementation and optimization of the automated trading system for the foreign exchange market. Thesis analyses theoretical aspects for the system implementation, including introduction of foreign exchange market, types of market analysis, money management, risk management and technical indicators. The thesis further describes, what is required for development of such system and what important parts the system must contain. The work also describes how the system can be tested and optimised based on historical data.

The content of this diploma thesis is building an automatic trading system and its exact description. The thesis is focused on the classification of system requirements and on this base selection of underlying asset, which is defined by the forex contracts category.

This master thesis deals with design of automated trading system for currency trading. The thesis includes testing of this system on historical data and its optimization for achieving stability and profit. Thesis is divided into theoretical, analytical and practical part. The goal of the first part is to provide theoretical knowledge of the currency market, methods for analysis of the currency market and to define fundamental terminology. Second part describes properties of technical analysis indicators and introduces optimization and testing methods for automated trading systems. The last part is focused on design, implementation, optimization and testing of the automated trading systems.

本論文共壹冊，約八萬字，分五章十四小節。 本研究主要在採討我國貨幣市場上各類工具其報酬率能否隨通貨膨脹率的上升而上揚 ，從而檢定出它們對抗通貨膨脹的效果。所討論的對象為國庫券（九十天、一八二天 ）、商業本票（三十天、九十天、一八０天、三六０天）、可轉讓定期存單（九十天 、大於九十天），期間自民國六十五年五月至七十五年十一月。研究方法採用時間數 列模式及利率模式，將通貨膨脹率分為預期通貨膨脹率及非預期通貨膨脹率，分別進 行檢定。結果發現：各類工具均只能部份有效地對抗預期通貨膨脹及非預期通貨膨脹 。