Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall retrieval algorithms are evaluated in tropical cyclones (TCs). Differences between the Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) retrievals are found to be related to the storm region (inner core vs. rainbands) and the convective nature of the precipitation as measured by radar reflectivity and ice scattering signature. In landfalling TCs, the algorithms perform differently depending on whether the rainfall is located over ocean, land, or coastal surfaces. Various statistical techniques are applied to quantify these differences and identify the discrepancies in rainfall detection and intensity. Ground validation is accomplished by comparing the landfalling storms over the Southeast US to the NEXRAD Multisensor Precipitation Estimates (MPE) Stage-IV product. Numerous recommendations are given to algorithm users and developers for applying and interpreting these algorithms in areas of heavy and widespread tropical rainfall such as tropical cyclones.

<p> </p> <p>This dissertation consists of three essays that examine the response of small businesses to disruptions in their environment. The first two essays focused on small non-farm businesses in the United States and how they deal with natural disasters. The last essay examined smallholder farm households in Malawi, and how their household labor allocation decisions are affected by land allocation to estates in their communities. The individual essays are summarized as follows:</p> <p>Essay 1: <em>A Conditional Process Approach to Understanding the Role of Adjustment Strategies and Disaster Experience in Racial Disparities in Small Business Performance. </em>Considering that most minority owned businesses have limited access to formal systems, this essay explored how race could indirectly affect business performance (measured as percentage revenue growth) through the adoption of three informal strategies: customer base expansion, supplier base expansion and family adjustment strategies. It also explored whether these indirect effects are moderated by experience with natural disaster. The results showed that being a racial minority was positively associated with revenue growth such that on average, minority business owners experienced 29% higher revenue growth than white-owned businesses (p<0.05) on business performance. It also showed a modest indirect effect of race on revenue growth through each mediating strategy (p<0.5). However, the results did not support a moderating role for disaster experience. </p> <p>Essay 2: <em>Willingness to Pay for Comprehensive Cyclone Insurance Coverage by Small Business Owners: Evidence from the Coastal States of the United States</em>. Small businesses in the coastal United States are usually uninsured or underinsured for cyclone events. The underinsuring of these businesses could be a result of limited insurance coverage as well as individual characteristics of small business owners. Using a discrete choice experiment, this essay used a hypothetical comprehensive cyclone insurance to understand what insurance attributes are important to small business owners. It also examined the role of previous disaster experience, charity hazard as well as temporal orientation on the willingness to pay for the disaster insurance. This study used a discrete choice experiment to elicit insurance preferences from small coastal businesses which employed less than 100 employees. A mixed logit model was used to analyze the data. The results showed that business owners exhibited positive marginal utilities from policies that covered flood, windstorm, and business interruption regardless of the combination. Notably, the mixed logit model showed that on average, business owners were willing to pay up to 450%, 472%, and 482% more than their total monthly business insurance premium payment for insurance that covers flood and business interruption, windstorm and business interruption, and flood, windstorm and business interruption respectively. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression showed that respondents who had previously experienced cyclones were more willing to pay for the presented insurance policies than those who have not. Future orientation was also found to be positively associated with the marginal willingness to pay for the insurance policies.</p> <p>Essay 3: <em>Estates and Small-Holder Agricultural Labor Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa:</em> <em>A Case Study of Malawi. </em>Estates are larger than the average farm holdings, which mostly grow one crop, require large capital investment, are centrally managed and rely a lot on hired labor. With such large investments in agricultural land, the labor decisions of smallholder households in Africa will likely be altered. This essay therefore examined the role of estate farms on smallholders’ allocation of labor between on-farm, and off-farm demand and supply of casual labor using the <em>ganyu</em> system of Malawi as a case-study. Using the Malawi Integrated Household Panel survey covering the years 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2019, we estimated the effect of estates on the participation of smallholders on these labor decisions as well as the number of days spent in each activity. We also investigated the effect of these estates on community agricultural labor (<em>ganyu) </em>wage rates and the share of income accruable to ganyu and crop production. Linear probability (LPM), as well as tobit-correlated random effects (CRE) regressions were used to test these effects. Both models showed that the share of estates had a negative correlation with <em>ganyu </em>demand. The Tobit CRE regression showed that on average a 1% increase in the percentage share of agricultural land occupied by estates was associated with a modest 0.04% (p<0.01) decrease in the number of days <em>ganyu </em>labor was demanded, and a 0.02% increase in the number of days household members spent on their own farms. Further results showed that households in communities with higher shares of estates participated in less non-crop farming activities especially wage employment. We also found that the negative relationship between estates and <em>ganyu </em>demand was accentuated among households with higher levels of assets, and farm income. Finally, we found a modest negative relationship between share of estates and community <em>ganyu </em>wage rates </p>

Presented within this thesis are three studies on three rare and imperiled Southeastern woody plant species: mountain stewartia (Stewartia ovata), Atlantic white-cedar (Chamaecyparis thyoides), and Miller's witch-alder (Fothergilla milleri). This work contributes to the ecological understanding of these three species allowing for better-informed conservation decision-making. Machine learning habitat suitability models are presented for mountain stewartia and Miller's witch-alder. These models can direct limited conservation dollars and manpower towards areas of the highest habitat suitability. This work also utilizes field-based data to assess the habitat needs, species associations, and regeneration potential of both Atlantic white-cedar and Miller's witch-alder. Understanding the habitat and regeneration potential of these species allows conservationists to make more tailored land management decisions for the species. As plant species continue to be threatened with extinction, more basic and applied research is needed to lessen the impacts of the 6th mass extinction on native flora.

No description available.

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Tropical cyclones are synoptic scale rotating storms capable of generating intense wind speeds and rainfall with potentially devastating social and economic consequences. In addition to abnormally high winds and rainfall, the associated storm surge and extreme waves can lead to severe coastal erosion, damage to coastal property and inundation. A good understanding of the risk exposure to these events is therefore of great importance to planners and designers of coastal infrastructure in vulnerable regions. Probabilistic approaches have been routinely adopted for the calculation of extreme tropical cyclone induced wind speeds, with significant developments in these techniques over the last few decades. While the application of these approaches has become widely adopted in regions such as the North Atlantic, North Pacific and South Pacific Oceans, relatively little attention has been paid to the South-West Indian Ocean. This thesis focusses on the quantification of the risk exposure to tropical cyclones over the South-West Indian Ocean, using current state-of-the-art techniques. The primary results of the thesis are extreme wind speed maps at various return periods of interest for engineering design. Best track data for the South-West Indian Ocean, as archived by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), has been used as the primary dataset forming the basis of this study. These data provide estimates of the location and intensity of historical tropical cyclones at six hourly intervals. Location data are provided as estimates of longitude and latitude of the eye, while intensity data are provided as estimates of the maximum sustained surface (10 m elevation) wind speed and/or minimum central pressure. The modelling of tropical cyclone wind fields has been carried out using both the Holland (1980) and the Willoughby et al. (2006) parametric wind field models. Using the limited information available in the best track data as input to the model, surface wind fields which reasonably resemble those of actual storms have been generated. Both considered parametric wind field models have been shown to yield reasonable wind speeds and directions when compared with measurements. Of the two considered models the Willoughby et al. (2006) model has been shown to provide the best fit to historical wind speed measurements. Extreme value analyses of tropical cyclone induced wind speeds based on historical data alone have been shown to lead to potentially large errors, owing to the small sample size of the historical data. This highlights the need to augment the historical database through a probabilistic approach. Largely following the methods described in Powel et al. (2005) and Emanuel et al. (2006), a synthetic track model for the South-West Indian Ocean has been developed. The objective of the synthetic track model is to simulate thousands of years of tropical cyclone tracks, thereby circumventing errors induced by small sample sizes in the available historical best track data. The synthetic track model developed as part of this study is a Markov chain model, capable of simulating track propagation and intensity evolution along the track, from track genesis through to termination. The model is purely statistical, based on properties derived from the historical best track data. Adjustments have however been made to account for physical limitations such as those imposed by the equator and the maximum potential intensity which an event can attain. The statistical characteristics of synthetic tracks have been shown to agree well with those of the historical population. Applying the Willoughby et al. (2006) wind field model along synthetic tracks has enabled the simulation of 5 000 years of tropical cyclone induced wind speeds at any location of interest in the South-West Indian Ocean. Applying calculations on a 1 degree geographical grid, wind speed maps corresponding to return periods of 50, 100, 200 and 500 years have been generated for the South-West Indian Ocean. Extreme wind speeds along coastal regions provide valuable input for the design of coastal infrastructure in the region. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tropiese siklone is sinoptiese orde roterende storms wat in staat is om aansienlike windspoed en reënval, tot gevolg te hê met potensiële vernietigende sosiale en ekonomiese gevolge. Benewens die abnormale sterk winde en hoë reënval kan die verwante stormdeinings en vloedgolwe lei tot ernstige kus-erosie, skade aan kusfront-eiendom en oorstromings. ‘n Goeie begrip van die risiko-blootstelling aan hierdie gebeurtenisse is daarom van groot belang vir die beplanners en ontwerpers van kus-infrastruktuur in kwesbare gebiede. As gevolg van die beduidende ontwikkeling van probabilistiese benadering tot die berekening van windspoed wat veroorsaak word deur ekstreme tropiese siklone, word hierdie tegnieke huidiglike op ‘n roetine basis aangewend. Terwyl die toepassing van hierdie benaderings wyd aanvaar word in gebiede soos die Noord-Atlantiese, Noordelike- en Suidelike Stille Oseaan, word relatief min aandag gegee aan die Suid-Westelike Indiese Oseaan. Hierdie tesis fokus op die kwantifisering van die risiko-blootstelling aan tropiese siklone in die Suid-Westelike Indiese Oseaan met die gebruik van die huidige gevorderdste tegnieke. Die primêre resultaat van die tesis is uiterste wind spoed kaarte vir ‘n verskeindenheid herhaal periodes wat van belang in vir engenieursontwerp. Beste roete-ata vir die Suid-Westelike Indiese Oseaan, soos voorsien deur die Gesametlike Tifoon Waarskuwing Sentrum (JTWC), is gebruik as die primêre data stel wat die basis vorm van hierdie studie. Hierdie data gee die beste skattings van die ligging (lengte- en breedtegraad), en intensiteit (maksimum volgehoue oppervlak (10m hoogte) wind spoed en/of sentrale druk tekort) van historiese tropiese siklone teen ses-uurlikse intervalle. Die modelering van tropiese sikloon windvelde was uitgevoer met die gebruik van die Holland (1980) en die Willoughby et al. (2006) parametriese windveldmodelle. Met die gebruik van beperkte inligting wat beskikbaar is in die beste roete data as invoer vir die model, was oppervlak wind velde gegenereer wat ‘n billike ooreenstemming het met die van werklike storms. Beide tegnieke se parametriese windveldmodelle is al bewys om redelike akkurate windspoed en windrigtings te lewer in vergelyking met waargenome waardes. Van die twee modelle het die Willoughby et al. (2006) model se resultate die beste ooreenstemming gewys met historiese wind spoed metings. Dit is al uitgewys dat uiterste waarde-analises van tropiese sikloon veroorsaakte windspoed moontlik kan lei tot groot foute in die resultate as gevolg van die klein monster-grootte van die historiese data. Dit beklemtoon die noodsaaklikheid om die historiese databasis aan te vul met behulp van probabilistiese metodes. Die metodes soos beskryf deur Powel et al. (2005) en Emanuel et al. (2006) is hoofsaaklik gebruik om ‘n sintetiese roete-model vir die Suid-Westelike Oseaan te ontwikkel. Die doelwit van die sintetiese roete model is om duisende jare se tropiese sikloonroetes te produseer, en in effek foute te vermy as gevolg van die gebruik van klein monster groottes van die beskikbare historiese beste roete data. Die sintetiese roete model wat tydens hierdie studie ontwikkel is, is ‘n Markov kettingmodel wat in staat is om die roete verspreiding asook die evolusie van intensiteit saam die roete te simuleer vanaf die onstaan tot die beëindiging van die sikloon se roete. Die model is suiwer statisties en is gebasseer op die eienskappe soos afgelei vanaf die historiese beste roete data. Aanpassings is gemaak om rekening te hou van die fisiese beperkings soos die wat opgelê word deur die ewenaar en die maksimum potensiële intensiteit wat ‘n sikloon kan bereik. Dit is voorgelê dat die statistiese einskappe van die sintetiese roetes goed saamstem met die van die historiese populasie. Die toepassing van die Willoughby et al. (2006) wind veld model langs die sintetiese roetes het dit moontlik gemaak om 5000 jaar se windspoed, wat veroorsaak is deur tropiese siklone, te genereer by enige ligging wat van belang is in die Suid-Westelike Indiese Oseaan. Met berekeninge wat op ‘n 1 grade geografiese ruitnet gedoen is, is windspoedkaarte vir herhaal periodes van 50, 100, 200 en 500 jaar opgestel vir die Suid-Westelike Indiese Oseaan. Die uiterste wind spoed in kusgebiede gee waardevolle invoer vir die ontwerp van kus-infrastruktuur in die omgewing.

Les processus qui se déroulent à l'interface air-mer ont une importance cruciale pour les cyclones tropicaux (TCs). Les TCs tirent leur énergie de la chaleur de l'océan superficiel mais induisent aussi un refroidissement en surface : le sillage froid (ou Cold Wake CW) qui exerce une rétroaction négative sur leur intensité. Cette thèse détaille tout d'abord les processus impliqués dans le refroidissement de surface ainsi que les caractéristiques du cyclone et de l'océan qui en contrôlent l'amplitude. Trois proces- sus principaux participent à la CW : le mélange vertical, les flux de chaleur en surface (dominés par l'évaporation) et l'advection. Le mélange vertical homogénéise les eaux chaudes de surface et les eaux froides sous-jacentes, refroidissant la surface tout en réchauffant la sub-surface. Il est responsable de la majeure partie du refroidissement sous le TC et est donc le processus clé de la rétroaction de la CW. Les flux de chaleur contribuent peu au refroidissement sous le TC, mais ils refroidissent sur de larges régions. Enfin, l'advection horizontale fait diverger les eaux chaudes en surface et participe à modifier la forme de la CW. Dans cette thèse, je définis un indice de puissance du vent intégré pendant le passage du TC (WPi pour Wind Power index) et montre que l'amplitude de la CW augmente linéairement en fonction du WPi. Cependant, pour une puissance de TC donnée, l'état de l'océan de sub-surface module l'amplitude de la CW d'un facteur 10 ! Afin de décrire le contrôle de la CW par l'océan de sub-surface, je propose un indice mesurant l'énergie potentielle associée à la stratification océanique (CI pour Cooling Inhibition index ). Ces résultats sur le contrôle de la CW ont été obtenus grâce à un dispositif expérimental simulant la réponse océanique aux TCs à un coût numérique modéré. Cette approche permet une analyse statistique des caractéristiques des CWs induites par les ∼3,000 TCs observés sur les 30 dernières années. En modélisant la réponse océanique aux TCs directement dans un modèle de circulation océanique mondiale, ce dispositif expérimental permet aussi de faire le lien entre les processus océaniques à l'échelle des TCs et leur effet sur l'océan à l'échelle climatique. Il a été suggéré que la chaleur injectée en sub-surface par le mélange vertical sous les TCs peut modifier le transport de chaleur océanique global (OHT). Cependant, les anomalies chaudes injectées en sub-surface par les TCs en été ne pénètrent guère au-delà de la thermocline saisonnière. L'approfondissement de la couche mélangée en hiver a pour effet de réinjecter ces anomalies dans l'atmosphère, ce qui limite considérablement l'influence des TCs sur l'OHT. En revanche, les flux de chaleur sous les TCs refroidissent significativement les bassins cycloniques en été. Associé au réchauffement hivernal évoqué ci-dessus, ce processus réduit d'environ 10% l'amplitude du cycle saisonnier de température dans les bassins cycloniques. Finalement, la thèse ouvre des perspectives pour comprendre comment les modifications océaniques liées à la variabilité climatique naturelle et anthropique peut moduler l'activité cyclonique.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Consensus methods require that the techniques have no bias and have skill. The accuracy of six statistical and dynamical model tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was examined for western North Pacific tropical cyclones during the 2003 and 2004 seasons using the climatology and persistence technique called ST5D as a measure of skill. A framework of three phases: (i) initial intensification; (ii) maximum intensity with possible decay/reintensification cycles; and (iii) decay was used to examine the skill. During both the formation and intensification stages, only about 60% of the 24-36 h forecasts were within +/- 10 kt, and the predominant tendency was to under-forecast the intensity. None of the guidance techniques predicted rapid intensification well. All of the techniques tended to under-forecast maximum intensity and miss decay/reintensification cycles. A few of the techniques provided useful guidance on the magnitude of the decay, although the timing of the decay was often missed. Whereas about 60-70% of the 12-h to 72-h forecasts by the various techniques during the decay phase were within +/- 10 kt, the strong bias was to not decay the cyclone rapidly enough. In general the techniques predict too narrow a range of intensity changes for both intensification and decay. / Captain, United States Air Force

Ce travail traite de la simulation numérique du climat des grandes calottes de glace, en particulier des calottes de l'Antarctique et du Groenland, toujours existantes, dans des conditions climatiques différentes, à l'aide de modèles de circulation générale de l'atmosphère (MCGA). Le MCGA à grille variable LMDz a été adapté aux spécificités du climat polaire et validé pour le climat actuel. L'approche d'une grille variable, qui permet d'utiliser le MCGA à haute résolution spatiale (autour de 100 km) sur la région d'intérêt à un coût numérique raisonnable, a été validée en analysant la dynamique atmosphérique au bord de la région ciblée à l'aide d'un schéma de suivi des cyclones individuels. Des simulations du climat du Dernier Maximum Glaciaire (DMG) ont été faites pour le Groenland et l'Antarctique et analysées en tenant compte des archives glaciaires disponibles. Une explication possible des différences entre les deux méthodes principales de reconstruction des paléotempératures - l'analyse des isotopes de l'eau et la mesure directe de la température de la glace dans le trou de forage - au centre du Groenland a pu être proposée. Cette explication est basée sur des changements de paramètres climatiques locaux. C'est la première fois que l'approche de grille variable a été utilisée dans un MCGA pour des simulations du climat polaire à l'échelle de quelques années. Les simulations paléoclimatiques faites avec LMDz sont à une résolution spatiale inégalée à ce jour. Finalement, le climat du DMG, simulé par plusieurs MCGA dans le cadre du projet international PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Programme), a été analysé, et des implications des résultats pour l'interprétation des enregistrements glaciaires ont été discutées.

The vertical structure of the tangential wind field in tropical cyclones is investigated through observations, theory, and numerical simulations. First, a dataset of Doppler radar wind swaths obtained from NOAA/AOML/HRD is used to create azimuthal mean tangential wind fields for 7 storms on 17 different days. Three conventional wisdoms of vertical structure are reexamined: the outward slope of the Radius of Maximum Winds (RMW) decreases with increasing intensity, the slope increases with the size of the RMW, and the RMW is a surface of constant absolute angular momentum (M). The slopes of the RMW and of M surfaces are objectively determined. The slopes are found to increase linearly with the size of the low-level RMW, and to be independent of the intensity of the storm. While the RMW is approximately an M surface, M systematically decreases with height along the RMW. The steady-state analytical theory of Emanuel (1986) is shown to make specific predictions regarding the vertical structure of tropical cyclones. It is found that in this model, the slope of the RMW is a linear function of its size and is independent of intensity, and that the RMW is almost exactly an M surface. A simple time-dependent model which is governed by the same assumptions as the analytical theory yields the same results. Idealized hurricane simulations are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The assumptions of Emanuel's theory, slantwise moist neutrality and thermal wind balance, are both found to be violated. Nevertheless, the vertical structure of the wind field itself is generally well predicted by the theory. The percentage rate at which the winds decay with height is found to be nearly independent of both size and intensity, in agreement with observations and theory. Deviations from this decay profile are shown to be due to gradient wind imbalance. The slope of the RMW increases linearly with its size, but is systematically too large compared to observations. Also in contrast to observations, M generally increases with height along the RMW.

Depuis une vingtaine d'années, la qualité de la prévision de la trajectoire des cyclones tropicaux a fortement progressé mais peu d'améliorations ont été apportées à la prévision de l'intensité. Cette thèse s'intéresse aux changements d'intensité des cyclones tropicaux du sud-ouest de l'océan Indien sous l'angle original de l'activité électrique. Une première étude climatologique s'appuyant sur les données du réseau de détection d'éclairs World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) a permis de valider la qualité de ces données et de montrer que les cyclones tropicaux pouvaient être une source importante de production d'éclairs à l'échelle du bassin. À partir de ce résultat, une étude ciblée a été menée en considérant la spécificité du bassin et trois régions ont été définies (océan ouvert, région à proximité de la côte est de Madagascar et Canal du Mozambique). L'activité électrique des cyclones tropicaux dépend de la région où ils se trouvent ainsi que de leur stade d'intensité. Les éclairs semblent être un marqueur des phases d'intensification et d'affaiblissement dans certains situations. La troisième étape de cette thèse a consisté à simuler de manière idéalisée un cyclone tropical mature et a tenté d'expliquer les processus physiques à l'origine de l'activité électrique. Le modèle reproduit bien le comportement sporadique des éclairs habituellement observé. Des bilans montrent que ce cyclone présente trois phases caractéristiques, chacune associée à un comportement dynamique, microphysique et électrique différent. Enfin, une deuxième étude purement numérique a tenté d'identifier des estimateurs de l'activité électrique. Pour celà deux approches ont été adoptées : une étude globale et une étude par cellule. Dans les deux cas, les meilleurs estimateurs sont la masse totale de graupel, le volume d'updraft et le produit des flux des masses de glace précipitante et non précipitante.