Depuis une vingtaine d'années, la qualité de la prévision de la trajectoire des cyclones tropicaux a fortement progressé mais peu d'améliorations ont été apportées à la prévision de l'intensité. Cette thèse s'intéresse aux changements d'intensité des cyclones tropicaux du sud-ouest de l'océan Indien sous l'angle original de l'activité électrique.Une première étude climatologique s'appuyant sur les données du réseau de détection d'éclairs World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) a permis de valider la qualité de ces données et de montrer que les cyclones tropicaux pouvaient être une source importante de production d'éclairs à l'échelle du bassin. À partir de ce résultat, une étude ciblée a été menée en considérant la spécificité du bassin et trois régions ont été définis (océan ouvert, région à proximité de la côte est de Madagascar et Canal du Mozambique). L'activité électrique des cyclones tropicaux dépend de la région où ils se trouvent ainsi que de leur stade d'intensité. Les éclairs semblent être un marqueur des phases d'intensification et d'affaiblissement dans certains situations. La troisième étape de cette thèse a consisté à simuler de manière idéalisée un cyclone tropical mature et a tenté d'expliquer les processus physiques à l'origine de l'activité électrique. Le modèle reproduit bien le comportement sporadique des éclairs habituellement observé. Des bilans montrent que ce cyclone présente trois phases caractéristiques, chacune associée à un comportement dynamique, microphysique et électrique différent. Enfin, une deuxième étude purement numérique a tenté d'identifier des estimateurs de l'activité électrique. Pourcelà deux approches ont été adoptées : une étude globale et une étude par cellule. Dans les deux cas, les meilleurs estimateurs sont la masse totale de graupel, le volume d'updraft et le produit des flux des masses de glace précipitante et non précipitante.

This thesis presents the distribution of strong wind and wind pressure in the Greater Victoria area associated with winter mid-latitude cyclones based on climate data from the School-Based Weather Station Network during 6 selected days in the winters of 2006, 2007 and 2008. The objectives of this study are i) to test whether synoptic conditions favourable to severe mid-latitude cyclonic storms that are well described in the literature were associated with the selected storms, ii) to determine the time patterns of high wind speed and its direction and maximum gusts, iii) to test necessity of considering the spatial variation in air density and its controls in general assessments of the spatial variation in wind pressure and wind damage potential in the local area, iv) to identify potential areas susceptible to wind damage. Observations taken every second were from Davis Vantage Pro2 TM Plus weather stations located on the southern edge of school building roofs. Thirty-minute means and gust wind speeds were used. All six storms went north of Victoria. The synoptic conditions associated with the selected mid-latitude cyclones agreed with the ones described in literature. Strongest winds at most stations were generally from the southwest, and multiple wind speed peaks were found. The daily iii  maximum gust wind speeds were found before and/or after the highest mean wind speed peak. The spatial variation in air density and its controls were found to be negligible. Although there are a number of interacting causes of the distribution, strongest winds were at stations with smooth surrounding surfaces, close to the southern shoreline, on exposed slopes and/or near relief constrictions. The area with greatest wind speeds and damage potential was found from the east of downtown extending to Lansdowne Middle School. This study provides new knowledge of winds in the Greater Victoria area and contributes to people’s better response to wind storms, land use planning and forecasting severe windstorms. / Graduate / 0368 / mmatsuda@uvic.ca

This thesis presents the distribution of strong wind and wind pressure in the Greater Victoria area associated with winter mid-latitude cyclones based on climate data from the School-Based Weather Station Network during 6 selected days in the winters of 2006, 2007 and 2008. The objectives of this study are i) to test whether synoptic conditions favourable to severe mid-latitude cyclonic storms that are well described in the literature were associated with the selected storms, ii) to determine the time patterns of high wind speed and its direction and maximum gusts, iii) to test necessity of considering the spatial variation in air density and its controls in general assessments of the spatial variation in wind pressure and wind damage potential in the local area, iv) to identify potential areas susceptible to wind damage. Observations taken every second were from Davis Vantage Pro2 TM Plus weather stations located on the southern edge of school building roofs. Thirty-minute means and gust wind speeds were used. All six storms went north of Victoria. The synoptic conditions associated with the selected mid-latitude cyclones agreed with the ones described in literature. Strongest winds at most stations were generally from the southwest, and multiple wind speed peaks were found. The daily iii  maximum gust wind speeds were found before and/or after the highest mean wind speed peak. The spatial variation in air density and its controls were found to be negligible. Although there are a number of interacting causes of the distribution, strongest winds were at stations with smooth surrounding surfaces, close to the southern shoreline, on exposed slopes and/or near relief constrictions. The area with greatest wind speeds and damage potential was found from the east of downtown extending to Lansdowne Middle School. This study provides new knowledge of winds in the Greater Victoria area and contributes to people’s better response to wind storms, land use planning and forecasting severe windstorms. / Graduate / 0368 / mmatsuda@uvic.ca

Thesis (M.Sc.)--University of Wollongong, 2006. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references: p. 87-93.

Ces travaux visent à inscrire le monitoring des plages récifales de l'île de La Réunion dans la « Stratégie Nationale de Gestion Intégrée des Zones Côtières » (2012). Elle oriente les recherches vers une démarche labellisée sur le long terme qui se concrétise par la mise en place de protocoles de mesures normalisés déployés sur des sites ateliers. Le site de l'Ermitage devient, en 2012, le premier site atelier en zone tropicale et de type bioclastique labellisé à l'échelle nationale (AllENVI, puis INSU en 2014). La dynamique des plages d'arrière-récif demeure à ce jour peu étudiée à travers le monde. Les plages bioclastiques de La Réunion sont le produit de récifs coralliens décrits comme dégradés par les biologistes depuis les années 80. Elles sont confrontées à une très forte anthropisation. Des formes marquées d'érosion se lisent dans ces paysages littoraux. La révision des protocoles de suivi de la topographie des plages tout en exploitant les suivis historiques, vise à illustrer la pluralité des dynamiques en contexte d'arrière-récif. La diversité des processus et des échelles spatio-temporelles impliqués dans le fonctionnement hydro-sédimentaire des plages récifales nécessite la mise en œuvre de méthodes d'observation in situ adaptées, comparables et reproductibles. Dans cette étude nous exploitons surtout les suivis topographiques des plages à l'échelle évènementielle, saisonnière et pluriannuelle. Par l'analyse morphologique et volumétrique des séries de profils topographiques, la variabilité morphosédimentaire en zone intertidale et supratidale est décrite. La significativité de la mesure de la mobilité du trait de côte est également questionnée. / Long-term assessment of beach morphodynamic is a great challenge to understand future trajectories of these landforms. In France, in 2012, a national strategy for an integrated management of shoreline has been adopted. This one lead to creation of research labels (SOERE and SNO) which aim to sustain scientific researches dedicated to sandy beach morphodynamic in response to various hydrodynamics forcing. Shoreline monitoring on selected pilot sites is conducted within network where normalized protocols and high quality data are guaranteed at long-term scale. The French coastline also extend in tropical zone through its ultramarine territories. Tropical shoreline are among the most sensitive environment however they remain poorly studied. Since, 2012, Reunion island, a French department in Indian Ocean, integrated the SOERE network. Coral reef and coral beaches which preferentially developed on the western coast are frequently threatened by major swell event associated with tropical cyclones or long period swell. Since now, the beach trend evolution and morphogenic processes have not been quantified. However past monitoring exists which has consisted in topographic measurement along beach profile based on empirical protocols which produced biaised data. Since its integration within SOERE network, DGPS survey are now conducted along the different coral beach compartments of Reunion Island at seasonal and post-storm scale. This study aims to capitalize historical and DGPS beach topographic data in order to quantify long term and post-storm beach response and recovery from Cap Champagne to Trou d'Eau.

[pt] Nesse artigo, fornecemos evidências de que as informações sobre a infraestrutura de mitigação de riscos nos Estados Unidos (EUA) durante uma exposição indireta a ciclones tropicais e a própria exposição indireta a ciclones tropicais geram anomalias nos retornos após considerar os 5 fatores FamaFrench e momentum. Formulamos duas hipóteses possíveis para explicar essas anomalias: hipótese do investidor local e hipótese do investor geral. Ambas as hipóteses assumem que os investimentos em mitigação de riscos são inferiores ao ideal. Sua diferença é baseada em como os investidores interpretam os programas de mitigação de riscos. Na hipótese do investidor local, Nós nos concentramos nas percepções dos investidores locais sobre os programas. Investimentos mais significativos nesses programas significam que mais investidores locais irão reconhecê-los e conhecer suas falhas. Por outro lado, na hipótese do investor geral, nos concentramos nas associações que os investidores gerais fazem entre o nível de investimento em mitigação de perigos e o risco de desastres. No final, damos algumas evidências da hipótese dos investidores locais, mas não podemos garantir que essa seja a única explicação possível. A questão toda depende de quanto os investidores sabem sobre os programas de mitigação de riscos. Além disso, evidenciamos que um canal de informação é o provável caminho pelo qual as anomalias são geradas. Assim, nesta dissertação, lançamos alguma luz sobre a incerteza gerada pelos desastres naturais que precificam os ativos, um tema que recebe mais atenção em um mundo em aquecimento. / [en] In this paper, we provide evidence that information about hazard mitigation infrastructure in the United States (U.S.) during an indirect exposure to tropical cyclones and the indirect exposure to tropical cyclones per se generate anomalies in returns after considering the 5 Fama-French factors and momentum. We formulate two possible hypotheses to explain these anomalies: local investor and general market hypotheses. Both hypotheses assume that hazard mitigation investments are lower than the ideal. Their difference is based on how investors interpret the hazard mitigation programs. We focus on local investors perceptions about them in the local investor hypothesis. More significant investments in these programs mean more local investors will acknowledge them and their flaws. On the other hand, we focus on general investors associations between hazard mitigation investment level and disaster risk in the general market hypothesis. In the end, we give some evidence of the local investors hypothesis, but we cannot guarantee that this is the only possible explanation. The whole point depends on how much investors know about hazard mitigation programs. Beyond that, we give evidence that an information channel is the probable path in which the anomalies are generated. Thus, in this dissertation, we shed some light on the uncertainty generated by natural disasters that prices assets, a topic that gets more attention in a warming world.

This dissertation will specifically address the issue of improving the quality of satellite scatterometer retrieved ocean surface vector winds (OVW), especially in the presence of strong rain associated with tropical cyclones. A novel active/passive OVW retrieval algorithm is developed that corrects Ku-band scatterometer measurements for rain effects and then uses them to retrieve accurate OVW. The rain correction procedure makes use of independent information available from collocated multi-frequency passive microwave observations provided by a companion sensor and also from simultaneous C-band scatterometer measurements. The synergy of these active and passive measurements enables improved correction for rain effects, which enhances the utility of Ku-band scatterometer measurements in extreme wind events. The OVW retrieval algorithm is based on the next generation instrument conceptual design for future US scatterometers, i.e. the Dual Frequency Scatterometer (DFS) developed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Under this dissertation research, an end-to-end computer simulation was developed to evaluate the performance of this active/passive technique for retrieving hurricane force winds in the presence of intense rain. High-resolution hurricane wind and precipitation fields were simulated for several scenes of Hurricane Isabel in 2003 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using these numerical weather model environmental fields, active/passive measurements were simulated for instruments proposed for the Global Change Observation Mission- Water Cycle (GCOM-W2) satellite series planned by the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency. Further, the quality of the simulation was evaluated using actual hurricane measurements from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer and iv SeaWinds scatterometer onboard the Advanced Earth Observing Satellite-II (ADEOS-II). The analysis of these satellite data provided confidence in the capability of the simulation to generate realistic active/passive measurements at the top of the atmosphere. Results are very encouraging, and they show that the new algorithm can retrieve accurate ocean surface wind speeds in realistic hurricane conditions using the rain corrected Ku-band scatterometer measurements. They demonstrate the potential to improve wind measurements in extreme wind events for future wind scatterometry missions such as the proposed GCOM-W2.

Dans un contexte international, la prévision d'intensité des cyclones tropicaux connaît encore de graves déficiences tandis que la prévision de trajectoire de ces phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes s'est grandement améliorée ces dernières décennies. Une source d'erreur pour la prévision d'intensité est le manque de connaissance des processus physiques qui régissent l'évolution de la structure et de l'intensité des cyclones. Cette thèse, proposée dans le cadre des responsabilités du Centre Météorologique Régional Spécialisé (CMRS) de la Réunion et des axes de recherche du LACy et du CNRM, a pour but d'améliorer la prévision numérique et la compréhension des mécanismes de changement de structure et d'intensité des cyclones dans le sud-ouest de l'océan Indien. On observe statistiquement dans le bassin de fréquents déferlements d'ondes de Rossby qui correspondent à une intrusion des talwegs d'altitude depuis les moyennes latitudes vers les régions où évoluent les cyclones. Ces déferlements advectent dans la troposphère tropicale de l'air d'origine stratosphérique à fort tourbillon potentiel (PV). Le cœur d'un cyclone tropical étant caractérisé par un vortex cyclonique de fort PV, il est donc légitime de se demander si de tels talwegs sont capables de « nourrir » un cyclone en déferlant jusqu'à lui, et l'intensifier par superposition de PV. D'un autre côté, l'approche d'un talweg est associée à d'autres facteurs pouvant jouer en défaveur d'une intensification, comme un fort cisaillement vertical de vent. L'étude de processus est réalisée sur le cyclone Dora (2007) avec le modèle opérationnel du CMRS sur le bassin, Aladin-Réunion. Ce modèle hydrostatique à aire limitée bénéficie d'une résolution horizontale de 8 km et de son propre schéma d'assimilation 3Dvar avec bogus de vent. Un tel bogus permet d'affiner la structure du cyclone à l'instant initial en ajoutant des observations de vent déduites d'un profil analytique et des paramètres de structure du cyclone estimés par les images satellites. Des diagnostiques sur les variables thermodynamiques en sortie de modèle montrent que la phase d'intensification rapide de Dora est bien associée à l'advection de tourbillon potentiel (PV) en provenance du talweg. Bien que fortement cisaillé, le système parvient à s'intensifier grâce à la forte inclinaison du talweg qui advecte du PV au cœur du cyclone en 2 temps et à 2 niveaux (haute et moyenne troposphère). Lorsque le talweg est au plus proche du cyclone, il force un processus dynamique interne appelé « cycle de remplacement du mur de l'œil ». On observe une inclinaison et un renforcement des vitesses verticales à l'extérieur du mur de l'œil principal, associé à une accélération de la circulation cyclonique tangentielle par advection de moment angulaire sur toute l'épaisseur de la troposphère dans cette zone annulaire (mis en évidence par les flux d'Eliassen-Palm). Un second maximum de vent relatif apparaît alors et une deuxième phase d'intensification rapide s'ensuit avec la contraction du mur secondaire. Le forçage de processus internes par une influence externe (un talweg) semble donc être le moteur de l'intensification rapide de Dora dans un environnement cisaillé, et potentiellement celui d'autres cyclones dans le bassin qui sont approchés par des talwegs d'altitude. Les prévisionnistes du CMRS sont invités à surveiller les champs de PV de tels systèmes, en attendant que de plus amples diagnostiques soient réalisés avec l'outil d'inversion du tourbillon potentiel développé sur le modèle global Arpège. / Despite significant improvements in Tropical Cyclone (TC) track forecasts over the past few decades, anticipating the sudden intensity changes of TCs remains a major operational issue. The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze TC rapid intensification processes in relation with external forcing induced by upper-level troughs originating from the mid-latitudes. The impact of initial storm structure on storm evolution and prediction is also documented. An objective definition for rapid intensification in the southwest Indian Ocean is first proposed. The location and frequency of TC-trough interactions are identified, as well as TC-trough arrangements conducive to TC intensification. An interesting study case, TC Dora (2007), is chosen to run numerical simulations initialized with synthetic TC observations blended in a global analysis. The simulated TC-trough interaction is intricate with potential vorticity (PV) advection from the trough into the TC core at mid and upper levels. Vortex intensification first occurs inside the eyewall and results from PV superposition. Further intensification is associated with a subsequent secondary eyewall formation triggered by external forcing from the trough. The numerical model is able to reproduce the main features associated with outer eyewall spin-up, inner eyewall spin-down, and their effects on vortex intensity changes. Another numerical study examines typhoons in the northwest Pacific and demonstrates the critical role played by initial vortex structure in TC track and intensity prediction. Upgrading the initial specification of a TC inner-core structure in numerical models is recommended for future TC prediction improvements.

Neste trabalho foi investigado o impacto da evolução dos eventos El Niño (EN) de acordo com as fases distintas da Oscilação Decadal do Pacífico (positiva, ODP(+) e negativa, ODP(-)) nas mudanças no transporte de umidade sobre o Sudeste da América do Sul (SEAS) durante o verão austral de 1950-1999. A resposta da variabilidade do Jato de Baixos Níveis a leste do Andes (JBN) e de algumas propriedades dos ciclones extratropicais sobre o cone sul do continente as modificações na circulação associadas aos eventos mencionados acima foi analisada. Foi mostrado que existem poucas mudanças significativas no regime de precipitação sobre a América do Sul ao se considerar a influência dos anos neutros do Pacífico Equatorial durante a ODP(+) quando comparado com os anos da ODP(- ). Entretanto, os eventos EN da ODP(+) indicam diferenças no padrão de anômalo de ondas em altos níveis em resposta as diferentes anomalias de Temperatura de Superfície do Mar (TSM) dos oceanos Pacífico e Atlântico Equatorial quando comparado com os eventos da ODP(-). Como conseqüência foram observadas anomalias positivas de precipitação no SEAS associadas à intensificação do fluxo convergente de umidade em baixos níveis oriundo do Atlântico Equatorial e região Amazônica para esta região durante os eventos EN da ODP(+). Todavia, os eventos da ODP(-) apresentaram anomalias positivas de precipitação apenas ao sul do SEAS e negativas ao norte desta como resposta ao movimento descendente e divergência anômala sobre o centro-leste do Brasil seguido de enfraquecimento do fluxo de umidade transportado pelos ventos alísios em direção aos subtrópicos. Os experimentos numéricos com Community Atmosphere Model versão 3.0 serviram para ajudar na interpretação das análises observacionais onde foi sugerido que o fenômeno EN é mais importante para forçar as anomalias climáticas de verão do continente do que o modo de ODP. A maior freqüência de casos de JBN detectados com o critério 1 de Bonner durante anos de EN da ODP(+) em relação a ODP(-) foi proporcional à quantidade de eventos selecionados em cada categoria. Em geral, os casos de JBN anômalo se deslocaram desde a Amazônia até o Sul do Brasil e Nordeste da Argentina, mas foi na ODP(-) que o sistema foi mais intenso apesar de apresentar menor potencial para o transporte de umidade para o SEAS quando comparado com os casos da ODP(+). Através do esquema numérico de Murray e Simmonds foi observado que, coerentemente com a intensificação do fluxo convergente de ar quente e úmido dos trópicos para o SEAS, os eventos EN da ODP(+) apresentaram ciclones extratropicais mais freqüentes e com pressões centrais mais baixas sobre o extremo Sul do Brasil, Uruguai, Nordeste da Argentina e vizinhanças do Atlântico Sudoeste em comparação com os eventos da ODP(-). / This work investigates the impact of the El Niño (EN) events and their evolution according to the PDO phases (warm, PDO(+) and cold, PDO(-)) focusing on the moisture transport exchanges from the north to the Southeast of the South America (SESA) during the austral summer period of 1950-1999. The variability of the Low Level Jet east of the Andes (LLJ) and some properties of extratropical cyclones over the southern cone of the continent in response to the modifications in the atmosphere circulation due to above mentioned events is analyzed. It is shown that on the South America continent there are not any significant changes in precipitation distribution during the neutral years in the Equatorial Pacific for PDO(+) when compared to the years of PDO(-). However, the EN events during PDO(+) indicate some differences in the anomalous wave pattern at high levels due to the variability of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies on the Equatorial Pacific and Atlantic oceans when compared with the events for PDO(-). This implies in positive precipitation anomalies over the SESA which is associated to the enhancement of convergent moisture flux in this region. However, the events for PDO(-) showed positive precipitation anomalies only over the southern part of the SEAS and negative to the north which is associated to the downward motion and anomalous divergence over the centraleastern Brazil. This pattern may have contributed for weakening the moisture flux transported by the trade winds towards the subtropics. Numerical experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0 also helped on the interpretation of the observational analysis where was suggested that EN events are more important to force the climate anomalies in the summer season over the continent than the PDO mode. The frequency of LLJ cases detected with the Bonner criterion 1 during the years of EN for PDO(+) is bigger than for PDO(-). The spatial position pattern for both categories of the anomalous LLJ is from the Amazon to Southern Brazil and Northeastern Argentina. During the PDO(-) the jet is more intense, however it seems to transport less moisture towards the SEAS region when compared to the PDO(+) cases. The extratropical cyclones tracked through a numerical scheme showed higher frequency and lower central pressures on the extreme of Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Northeastern Argentina and around the Southwest Atlantic during the EN events of PDO(+) when compared to the events of PDO(-). This is in agreement with the largest flux convergence of warm and humid air from the tropics to these areas.

L'isthme centraméricain se caractérise par un abaissement du relief qui favorise la communication aérologique entre l'Atlantique et le Pacifique. En raison de leur puissance et de la canalisation exercée par le relief, les Anticyclones Mobiles Polaires pénètrent profondément dans la zone tropicale. Le déplacement des AMP et leur ralentissement progressif en direction des Tropiques, la rencontre des continents et de leurs reliefs et les conséquences sur l'écoulement en masse forment des Agglutinations Anticycloniques. Les AMP s'agglutinent et les Lignes de Pulsation deviennent progressivement la circulation d'alizé et/ou mousson. Les flux tropicaux des deux hémisphères météorologiques se rejoignent le long de l'Equateur Météorologique. L'isthme centraméricain constitue un carrefour climatique unique au monde. L'étude des perturbations donne la clé de l'analyse de la dynamique du temps et du climat en Amérique Centrale. L'évolution climatique récente montre une modification du style de circulation générale depuis les années 70.