This thesis comprises of four essays on fiscal policy and fiscal policy adjustment. The first of these essays, Chapter 2, reviews a wide range of literature about fiscal policy. This chapter also discusses the sudden stop and fiscal policy during sudden stops episodes. Chapter 3 constructs a simple dynamic deterministic model to study how the speed of adjustment to a sustainable level of debt affects economic welfare. The simulation results in Chapter 3 suggest that in order to bring the level of external debt to a sustainable level as required by foreign lenders, the small open economy will attempt to delay adjustment as long as possible. Chapter 4 uses a Structural Vector Autoregression Model to estimate government consumption multipliers for groups of countries. The empirical results suggest that: (i) The higher degree of financial openness, the larger the government consumption multiplier. (ii) The government consumption multiplier is significantly bigger in countries with higher levels of external debt. (iii) The higher the level of financial development, the smaller the government consumption multiplier. (iv) The government consumption multiplier in countries with fixed exchange rates seems to be bigger than in countries with a flexible exchange rate regime. Chapter 5 of this thesis analyses four case study countries including Greece, Latvia, Pakistan and Turkey. This chapter finds that fiscal policy choice varies across countries because there are many possible determinants for this. It will also be determined that all factors including the level of public debt, level of external debt and monetary policy, especially exchange rate regime, affects the fiscal policy choice of each country. Furthermore, Chapter 5 also points out that political economy can influence fiscal policy directly and indirectly.

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No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 1659534 bytes, checksum: 1b2924b9fd8a32a8b34b8c78d7f46089 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-23 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / This study sought to analyze the effect of the political connections on the cost and the corporate debt gain, assuming the importance of the benefits tied to the government's political interference in the firms. Based on the model proposed by Bliss and Gull (2012), the political connections were measured in a way adapted to the Brazilian context, following three means in which the government uses to maintain links with the organizations, they are: the connection by property structure , By board of directors and by donations or financing to the electoral campaigns. The sample consisted of 233 companies that had their cost and their debt gain quantified, verified the possible relations with the political connections and some financial characteristics, through regressions by the Weighted Least Squares Method (MQP), a methodology that seeks to assign a lower Weight to the observations that have greater variance of the error. In the results it was possible to observe, from the descriptive analyzes, a median of the debt cost per year of 16.72. It can also be observed that the effective gain of the debt, from the reduction of its cost, is not enjoyed by all the companies in the sample. Based on the regression analysis, it can be observed that the companies that hold the government ownership, with the direct shareholding in their shareholding structure, have a reduced debt cost in relation to the other companies in the sample. In addition, the evidence indicates that companies that have members of their Boards of Directors with political backgrounds earn higher debt gains. Thus, it is possible to emphasize that the main contributions of this study refer to the evidence that the political connections of companies in Brazil are directly related to the reduction of the cost of corporate debt, which is also confirmed by the study of their positive relations With the debt gain, since it is possible to notice that politically connected companies have a greater reduction of their cost of debt than their cost of equity. This suggests that such firms may be having greater access to the reduced interest rates of public banks. / Este estudo buscou analisar qual é o efeito das conexões políticas sobre o custo e o ganho da dívida das empresas, pressupondo a importância dos benefícios atrelados à interferência política do governo nas firmas. Com base no modelo proposto por Bliss e Gull (2012), as conexões políticas foram mensuradas de modo adaptado ao contexto brasileiro, seguindo três meios em que o governo se utiliza para manter elos com as organizações, são eles: a conexão por estrutura de propriedade, por conselho de administração e por doações ou financiamentos às campanhas eleitorais. A amostra contou com 233 empresas que tiveram seu custo e seu ganho da dívida quantificado, verificadas as possíveis relações com as conexões políticas e algumas características financeiras, por meio de regressões pelo Método dos Mínimos Quadrados Ponderados (MQP), metodologia que busca atribuir um menor peso às observações que possuem maior variância do erro. Nos resultados foi possível notar, a partir das análises descritivas, uma mediana do custo da dívida ao ano de 16,72. Também pode ser observado que o ganho efetivo da dívida, proveniente da redução de seu custo, não é desfrutado por todas as empresas da amostra. Com base nas análises de regressão, pode-se observar que as empresas que mantêm em sua estrutura acionária a propriedade do governo, com a participação acionária de forma direta, apresentam um custo da dívida reduzido em relação às demais empresas da amostra. Adicionalmente, as evidências indicam que empresas que possuem membros de seus Conselhos de Administração com antecedentes políticos auferem maiores ganhos da dívida. Dessa forma, é possível destacar que as principais contribuições deste estudo se referem às evidências de que as conexões políticas das empresas no Brasil estão diretamente ligadas à redução do custo da dívida das empresas, o que é ratificado pelo estudo, também, de suas relações positivas com o ganho da dívida, uma vez que é possível notar que empresas conectadas politicamente possuem maior redução de seu custo da dívida do que do seu custo de capital próprio. Isto sugere que tais empresas podem estar tendo maior acesso às taxas de juros reduzidas dos bancos públicos.

A dívida pública apresentou uma profunda deterioração a partir do início do plano Real, destacando-se os dois choques cambiais: de 1999 e 2002. De acordo com a literatura sobre o tema as questões institucionais e a composição patrimonial desempenham um importante papel para explicar o comportamento da dívida. O presente trabalho pretende avaliar os fatores que levaram ao aumento da dívida pública no período recente, pós-plano Real. Para tal busca-se entender o arcabouço regulatório e macroeconômico em que se insere a dívida pública brasileira. Feito isto, busca-se compreender não só o montante da dívida, mas também a sua composição e os seus prazos de vencimento. Assim, pretende-se evidenciar como a composição, prazos de vencimentos e arcabouço regulatório afetam o desempenho fiscal. Alguns fatores mostram que a concentração da dívida atrelada a indexadores como a taxa de câmbio e a taxa SELIC tornam o comportamento da dívida muito volátil em momentos de crise e, por conseguinte, provocariam uma deterioração fiscal. A redução do risco sistêmico e a migração de títulos pós-fixados para prefixados levaria a uma redução do risco (volatilidade) da dívida. Por outro lado, a utilização de títulos prefixados pode significar custos maiores em momentos de estabilidade e prazos menores, devido aos riscos inerentes à economia brasileira. Os resultados obtidos evidenciam um grande aumento da volatilidade da dívida em 1999 e em 2002, períodos que foram marcados pela elevada participação de títulos atrelados ao câmbio e à taxa SELIC. A partir do governo Lula evidencia-se um melhor resultado das contas públicas em virtude da evolução do arcabouço institucional, iniciado no Plano Real, e a redução da volatilidade da dívida. Destaca-se também a volta de uma participação significativa dos títulos prefixados, o que não se observava desde os anos iniciais do plano-Real. / The public debt has presented a profound deterioration since the implementation of the Real plan, emphasizing the two shocks that affected the Brazilian exchange rate in 1999 and in 2002. In accordance with the literature concerning this theme institutional issues and the public debt index composition have an important role in order to explain public debt`s evolution. This paper intends to evaluate the factors that caused the recent public debt`s increase after the Real plan. In order to achieve it, this dissertation tries to explore the regulatory and the macroeconomic environment embodied in Brazil. After that, it tries to comprehend not only public debt`s amount, but also its composition and debt term. So, this dissertation intends to provide evidence how public debt`s composition, debt term and regulatory issues affect the fiscal result. Some factors provide evidence that debt indexed by the exchange rate and the interest rate SELIC cause a volatile behavior during crisis resulting in a fiscal deterioration. The systemic risk reduction and the migration from not fixed indexed bonds to fixed indexed bonds would reduce debt`s risk (volatility). However, the utilization of fixed indexed bonds can represent higher costs and larger debt term during stability moments due to the risks associated to the Brazilian economy. The results obtained provide evidence on the great increase in the debt`s volatility in 1999 and in 2002, periods that were distinguished by strong participation of bonds indexed to the exchange rate and SELIC rate. Since president Lula government it`s perceived a better fiscal result due to the evolution of the institutional environment, after the Real plan implementation, and also public debt`s volatile reduction. We emphasize also the return of a significant participation of fixed bonds, a fact that wasn`t observed since initial years of the Real plan implementation.

The thesis regarding external outstanding debts of Czech Republic is a complex document describing particular debtors, the amount of their liabilities and methods used to recover the outstanding debts. The diploma thesis also covers the origin of these debts. The aim of this thesis is to find business opportunities in this area while considering debtor's attitude and economic position. Two countries -- Cuba, Libya - have been selected on the basis of valuation analysis of individual debts. These countries have been put through detailed analysis in order to find business opportunities for commercial subjects.

Graduation thesis deals with the debt of municipalities and regions. Its subject is the analysis of local authorities debt, namely the most frequent causes, development and comparison between municipalities and regions. Furthermore, it describes the possibility of regulating municipal debt. A part of this thesis is an analysis of revenues and expenses of municipalities, their possible influence and a description of the most frequently used returnable revenues. The practical part is focused on the debt of capital city Prague, which has a specific position as a town and region together. Prague's economy, the debt size and the rate of indebtedness will be analyzed and assessed based on informing and monitoring system indicators. An estimation of Prague financial outlook is included at the end of thesis.

The work deals with the role of cost of debt capital in the process of market valuation. Analyses used as a basis for determining the cost of debt, simple and advanced methods of cost of debt capital estimation, as well as the issue of determining the value of debt itself are explained. Further, the work briefly examines the impact of aspects that are not directly related to the credit quality of the firm on its cost of debt; by these aspects, legal conditions for interest payments tax deductibility and third-party guarantees are meant. The pivotal part of the work designs its own model for debt rating and a premium over the risk-free rate of return estimation, with the premium consisting of a premium for expected and unexpected loss of a potential creditor.

This diploma thesis deals with topic called Application of creditor´s claim in to the insolvency proceeding. Attention is paid on handling with this debt in the time between registration and review procedure, on which is this debt validated or rejected. This thesis is also focused on characteristics of each type of debt and their registration. The main focus of this thesis is on analysis of the topic - defects of registrations and its consequences on the creditors claim in insolvency proceeding. Part of this thesis is also detailed analysis of each disclaiming act and each person which can do this act. After that are studied consequences of these disclaiming acts. There is also compared current legislation with the old one and used jurisprudence for law interpretation.

The thesis titled "Analysis of mandatory spending - debt service of the state" is essentially one of a series dealing with mandatory spending of the state, and that the cost of government debt. Individual chapters of the thesis deal in turn with the characteristics of the obligatory expenditures and factors that affect it. The penultimate chapter focuses on the specific quantification of these expenses in the period. The final chapter shows the evaluation of the state debt of the Czech Republic and the expenditure for the management of state debt. Level of expenditure on debt servicing in terms of gross domestic product, compared with western countries are significantly lower and not yet for the treasury risk factor. However, the absolute amount of the national debt over the last 6 years has doubled and the growth rate can be considered very disturbing.

Controlling shareholders of private firms may define "value of the firm" in terms of personal utility. They may thus prioritize their personal wealth over the firm. Furthermore, agency-based corporate governance may not apply to privately owned firms. This study looked at managers and owners of private firms as potentially risky decision makers. Financial distress was positioned as a boundary to agency theory-based corporate governance for private firms. Choices of shareholders in respect of board composition and the relationship between board composition and external sources of funding were investigated. Influence on turnaround potential, of management who are also shareholders, was also considered. Data from 104 business rescue plans were used for correlation and multiple hierarchical regression analyses. The mean return to secured creditors was 94 % and the mean return to unsecured creditors was 48 %. Unexpectedly a negative correlation between number of directors and free assets was determined. Yet, in the regression model for return to secured creditors, the significant variables were total directors and free assets. It is concluded that personal surety provided by directors may be detrimental to a private firm's free assets. For unsecured creditors, the significant variables were size; management shareholding, and return to secured creditors. The study was conducted between 2011 and 2016 using secondary data drawn from actual business rescue cases. In conclusion, the agency cost of debt construct was refined and an estimate for the agency cost of distressed debt, was presented. Research findings offer improved insight into agency theory for private firms with a foundation for improved corporate governance models. Theorists may use this research to extend understanding of the theory of the firm and corporate governance. Furthermore bankruptcy and turnaround theory may be enhanced by the findings of this research. Practitioners may use the findings to refine credit risk and pricing models. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2017. / Business Management / PhD / Unrestricted

Malgré d’importants avantages, la dette comme source de financement implique un risque d’insolvabilité. La faillite et la liquidation des actifs ont un coût élevé non seulement pour l’emprunteur et le prêteur, mais aussi pour la société en général. La détresse des entreprises peut en effet d’une part se propager dans l’économie et provoquer une contagion et d’autre part impliquer des externalités négatives (telle la chute du prix des actifs liquidés). La renégociation de la dette survient donc comme une alternative à la faillite/liquidation, une solution qui peut se montrer avantageuse pour toutes les parties impliquées et pour la société. Cette thèse propose une analyse théorique de la renégociation de la dette dans deux contextes particuliers. Le premier concerne le cas de la dette d’entreprise. Le second concerne le cas des crédits hypothécaires. À notre connaissance, tous les modèles de la littérature sur la dette d’entreprise impliquent ou autorisent un nombre infini de renégociations de la dette. Cette caractéristique empêche l’analyse du nombre optimal de renégociations. Pour pallier cet inconvénient, nous introduisons des coûts fixes de renégociation dans un modèle structurel de renégociations multiples. On analyse la réduction optimale du coupon, le moment et le nombre de renégociations. En ce qui concerne la renégociation des crédits hypothécaires, nous contribuons au débat sur la crise actuelle des saisies immobilières en étudiant en premier lieu la décision d’un prêteur de renégocier ou de saisir, et en second lieu l’impact négatif de la saisie sur les prix immobiliers. Enfin, sont analysés le rôle de la titrisation des crédits dans les décisions de saisir les biens immobiliers ou de renégocier les dettes en souffrance, ainsi que les contrats des gestionnaires immobiliers / Despite important advantages debt financing entails a risk of impossibility of payment. Bankruptcy and foreclosure are costly not only for the borrower and the lender, but also to the community as a whole through contagion and negative externality effects. Renegotiation then arises as a win-win solution for the parties involved. This thesis focuses on the analysis of debt renegotiation for the cases of corporate debt and home mortgage debt. To our knowledge, all the previous work on corporate debt renegotiation implies an infinite number of renegotiations. This feature preempts the analysis of the optimal number of renegotiations. We address this drawback by incorporating fixed renegotiation costs in a structural model of multiple renegotiations, analyzing the optimal debt reduction, timing and the number of rounds. Regarding home mortgage renegotiation, we contribute to the debate about the current foreclosure crisis by studying a lender’s decision to renegotiate or to foreclose, and the negative effect of foreclosure on house prices. Finally, the role of securitization in foreclosure and renegotiation decisions, as well as servicer contract design are investigated.