This paper verifies the positive relationship between consumer credit and the four categories of consumption spending in South Africa. The study utilised data sourced from the South African Reserve Bank for the period 1975-2011. The study was conducted via regression analysis to determine the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. A significant positive relationship was found between the independent variable household debt and the four categories of consumption. The results are statistically significant for non-durable and durable goods and although significant for services and semi-durable goods, the relationship is less strong in these two instances. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

This paper develops a series of Early Warning System models for debt crises. This paper uses a Debt Pressure index to define crisis periods and then demonstrates how one can go about trying to forecast these periods using Logit and Markov-switching Models. An alternative approach, whereby ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to create Early Warning System models, is introduced. A graphical analysis is also conducted. Three useful Early Warning System models emerge from this study.

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This dissertation investigates the effects of changes in the accounting environment on the capital markets. Included are three manuscripts, each of which, make an important contribution to the accounting literature. The first two manuscripts investigate the impact and importance of analysts' forecasts. The third manuscript documents the impact of eliminating an important accounting disclosure. This dissertation makes the following contributions to the accounting literature. The first manuscript documents that investor skepticism towards meet/beat firms appears to have been a temporary phenomenon and investors have resumed rewarding firms that meet/beat analysts' earnings expectations. Further, the study provides evidence that changes in the analyst forecasting environment also contributed to this temporary decline implying that the scandals did not have as strong of an effect on investors' confidence in earnings as previously believed. The second manuscript contributes to the accounting literature by documenting the importance of meeting/beating cash flow forecasts to participants in the debt markets. Finally, the third manuscript contributes to the existing literature regarding the value relevance of the IFRS -- U.S.GAAP reconciliation by documenting a significant decrease in publicly available information to equity investors at the first reporting period following the SEC's decision to eliminate the reconciliation. All of these manuscripts extend what is currently known about the importance of public disclosures to capital market participants. / Ph. D.

Consumer credit is seen as a matter of course and an essential precondition enabling the individual consumer to allocate in a smooth manner his or her income to varying expenses, and allowing the growth-rate to increase in society. The consumer community using different forms of credit has increased and includes today a diversity of social groups such as the elderly, children, the rich and the poor. Credit is not just a good thing, however, as it involves risks of failing to fulfill the credit contract obligations. The point of departure for the thesis is that over-indebtedness constitutes a problem which society wishes to solve because it causes considerable difficulties for both individuals and society as a whole. Numerous rules govern loans in Sweden, from the moment the consumer contemplates entering into a credit contract to the moment when the consumer is too indebted to repay the debt when due and must seek debt-repayment-plan modification. The thesis examines and analyses which consumer protections against overindebtedness emerge from these rules. The study shows that the regulatory measures adopted in recent years are similar to each other and mostly consist of rules protecting the consumer before a credit contract is concluded. Although the purpose of other existing rules addressing the last phase of the credit process is to protect the consumer who miscalculated his or her future economic circumstances, the protection is overall weak. In fact some of the rules in the last phase of the credit process can contribute to aggravating the consumer’s economic situation.

Background: Sweden has a tradition of a concentrated ownership structure where many owners use dual asset classes to maintain corporate control by possessing small portions of the dividend rights. Financial literature has shown that these controlling owners find more incentives to divert corporate resources for private use, at the expense of shareholders. Recent studies also show that involvement in extraction of private benefits leads to long maturity debt as controlling owners avoid frequent monitoring by lenders. As this causes a conflict over corporate debt maturity between controlling and minority shareholders, we investigate if the presence of multiple large shareholders (MLS) mitigates this conflict through control contests. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to examine and analyze how different ownership structures affect the informative environment within a firm. In addition, the thesis investigates how ownership structure affect debt maturity structure and what this mean for large and minority shareholders. Method: The study uses a quantitative approach with panel data of 74 publicly traded non – financial Swedish firms over the period of 2006 – 2014. A deductive approach has been applied in order to explain empirical results from theory and previous literature. Results: We find evidence that controlling owners with a separation in control and cash flow rights tend to insulate themselves through long term debt, creating a bad informative environment with information asymmetry and agency costs. Furthermore, our results show robust evidence that MLS mitigates these problems since control contest between large shareholders leads to a shorter debt maturity, yielding a better informative environment. In addition, our results imply that MLS may be an important factor in facilitating financing as investors associate these firms with less risk of extraction of private benefits.