In deregulated electricity markets, profit driven electricity retailers compete to supply cheap reliable electricity to electricity consumers, and the electricity consumers have free will to switch between the electricity retailers. The need to maximize the profits of the electricity retailers while minimizing the electricity costs of the electricity consumers has therefore seen a drastic increase in the research of electricity markets. One of the factors that affect the profits of the electricity retailers and the energy cost of the consumers in electricity retail markets is the supply and demand. During high-supply and low-demand periods, the excess electricity if not managed, is wasted. During low-supply high-demand periods, the deficit supply can lead to electricity blackouts or costly electricity because of the volatile electricity wholesale spot market prices. Research studies have shown that electricity retailers can achieve significant profits and reduced electricity costs for their electricity consumers by minimizing the excess electricity and deficit electricity. Existing studies developed load forecasting models that aimed to match electricity supply and electricity demand. These models reached excellent accuracy levels, however due to the high volatility character of load demand and the rise of new electricity consumers, load forecasting alone is unable to mitigate excess and deficit electricity. In other studies, researchers proposed charging the electricity consumers’ batteries with excess electricity during high-supply low-demand periods and supplying their deficit electricity during low-supply high-demand periods. Electricity consumers’ incorporating batteries resulted in minimized excess and deficit electricity, in turn, maximizing the profits for the electricity retailers and minimizing the electricity costs for the electricity consumers. However, the batteries are consumer centric and only provide battery energy for the battery-owned consumer. Electricity consumers without battery energy during low-supply highdemand periods have electricity blackouts or require costly electricity from the electricity wholesale spot market. The peer-to-peer (P2P) energy sharing framework which allows electricity consumers to share their energy resources with one another is a viable solution to allow electricity consumers to share their battery energy. P2P energy sharing is a hot topic in research because of its potential to maximize the electricity retailers’ profits and minimize the electricity consumers’ electricity costs. Due to the increased profits for the electricity retailer and reduced electricity costs for the electricity consumers from implementing battery charging and P2P energy sharing, this dissertation proposes a day-ahead electricity retail market structure in which the electricity retailer supplies consumers’ batteries with excess electricity during high-supply low-demand periods, and during low-supply highdemand periods the electricity retailer discharges the consumers’ batteries to supply their deficit supply or supply their peers’ deficit supply. The electricity retailer aims to maximize its profits and minimize the electricity cost of the electricity consumers in its electricity retail market, by minimizing the excess and deficit electricity. The problem is formulated as a non-linear optimization model and solved using game theory. This dissertation compares the profits of the electricity retailer and electricity costs of the consumers that charge their batteries with excess electricity, discharge their batteries and purchase electricity from their peers to supply their deficit supply, with consumers that only charge their batteries with excess electricity but do not share their battery energy with their peers, consumers that only purchase electricity from their peers to supply their deficit supply but do not employ a battery, and consumers that neither employ a battery nor purchase electricity from their peers to supply their deficit supply. The results show that the consumers that charge their batteries with excess electricity, discharge their batteries and purchase electricity from their peers to supply their deficit supply achieved the lowest electricity cost and highest profits for the electricity retailer. / Dissertation (MEng)--University of Pretoria, 2020. / Electrical, Electronic and Computer Engineering / MEng / Unrestricted

Within forecasting electricity pricing, we analyse whether adding various vari- ables improves the predictions, and if shorter time intervals between observa- tions enhance accuracy of the forecasting. Next, we focus on proper selection of lagged observations, which has not been thoroughly covered in the past litera- ture. In addition, many papers studied electricity prices in larger markets (e.g. United States, Australia, Nord Pool, etc.) on datasets limited in scope, with 2-3 years timespan. To address these gaps in literature, we obtain one daily and one hourly dataset, both spanning 6 years (January 1, 2015 - December 31, 2020), from four Central and Eastern European countries - the Czech Repub- lic, the Slovak Republic, Hungary, and Romania. These contain information on the electricity prices, and information on our observed added variables - temperature and cross-border electricity flows. For the forecasting, we use two different methods - Autoregression (AR) and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR). The thorough selection of lagged observations, which we accustom to the closing time of the auction-based electricity market system, serves further studies as a guidance on how to avoid possible errors and inconsistencies in their predictions. In our analyses, both AR and SUR models show that...

The very specific features of the spot prices, especially occurrence of severe jumps, create a spot price risk for retailers who purchase electricity at unregulated highly volatile prices but resell it to consumers at fixed price. Therefore, it is of high im- portance to forecast whether jump is likely to occur during the next hour. However, to the best of our knowledge, such research has not been devoted to the Czech power market yet. Therefore, the aim of this thesis is to forecast the jump occurrence in the Czech day-ahead market. For this purpose we suggest four logit model spec- ifications, each containing various independent variables (for example, electricity demand, outside temperature, lagged price and various dummy variables) where the variable selection is supported by the previous literature and by the characteristic features of the spot prices. Within the in-sample period we compare the suggested models based on the values of pseudo-R squared and Bayesian information criterion. When evaluating the out-of sample performance of suggested models we apply jump prediction accuracy and confidence, but opposed to the previous literature we sug- gest a kind of sensitivity analysis which, to the best of our knowledge, has not be proposed by any other power research. JEL Classification C25, C32, C51,...

L’objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier les nouvelles dynamiques et leurs impacts dans le secteur de l'électricité. Elle discute des sujets critiques d’après les perspectives de la macroéconomie, de la configuration structurelle, et de la transition vers des sources d'énergie renouvelables. Plus précisément, trois sujets se dégagent: le lien entre la consommation d'électricité et la croissance économique, les impacts de l'intégration verticale entre les producteurs et les détaillants, et les impacts d'intégration de production d'énergie renouvelable intermittente. En mettant en jeu ces trois sujets, elle tente d’apporter des réponses aux défis principaux de la sécurité d'approvisionnement, de la compétitivité, et de la durabilité du développement énergétique. En donnant de nouvelles orientations dans la recherche sur l’économie de l’énergie, elle servira à éclairer des débats politiques. / The objective of this thesis is to study the new dynamics and their impacts in the electricity sector. It discusses the critical issues from the perspectives of macroeconomics, structural configuration, and a transition to renewable energy sources. More precisely, three topics emerge: the nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth, the impacts of vertical integration between power generators and retailers, and the market impacts and integration issues of intermittent renewable generation. By studying these three topics, it provides answers to the key challenges of supply security, competitiveness and sustainable development in the energy sector. By giving new research directions of energy economics, it serves to inspire related policy debates.

Electricity markets may become more sensitive to weather conditions because of higher penetration of renewable energy sources and climatic changes. Albania is 100% reliant on hydropower for its domestic energy generation, making this country compelling to investigate as it is highly sensitive to changing weather conditions. We use an ARMA-GARCH model to investigate whether weather and economic factors had a relationship with monthly hydroelectricity prices in the Albanian Energy Market in the period 2013-2018. We find that electricity price is affected by variations in weather and is not utterly robust to extreme hydrological changes. Generally, our dependent variable appears to be particularly influenced by air pressure followed by temperature and rainfall. We also perceive that there is a relationship between economic factors and hydroelectricity prices, where residual supply appears to have a significant negative relationship with our dependent variable. However, we were originally anticipating a higher dependency of electricity prices on weather conditions, due to the inflated hydro-power reliance for electricity production in the Albanian Energy Market. This effect is offset by several factors, where the state monopolized behaviour of the energy sector occupies a predominant influence on our results.

Electricity is an essential good, which can hardly be replaced. It can be produced thanks to a wide rangeof sources, from coal to nuclear, not to mention renewables such as wind and solar. In order to meetdemand at the lowest cost, an optimisation is made on electricity markets between the differentproduction plants. This optimisation mainly relies on the electricity production cost of each technology.In order to include long-term constraints in the short-term optimisation, a so-called use value (oropportunity cost) can be computed and added to the production cost. One long-term constraint thatEDF, the main French electricity producer, is facing is that its gas plants cannot exceed a given numberof operation hours and starts between two maintenances. A specific software, DiMOI, computes usevalues for this double constraint but its parameters needs to be tested in order to improve thecomputation, as it is not thought to work properly.DiMOI relies on dynamic programming and more particularly on an algorithm called Bellman algorithm.The software has been tested with EDF R&D department in order to propose some modellingimprovements. Electricity and gas market prices, together with real plant parameters such as startingcosts, operating costs and yields, were used as inputs for this work, and the results were checkedagainst reality.This study gave some results but they appeared to be invalid. Indeed, an optimisation problem wasdiscovered in DiMOI computing core: on a deterministic context, a study with little degrees of freedomwas giving better profits than a study with more degrees of freedom. This problem origin was notfound precisely with a first investigation, and the R&D team expected the fixing time to be very long.The adaptation of a simpler tool (MaStock) was proposed and made in order to replace DiMOI. Thisproject has thus led to DiMOI giving up and its replacement by MaStock. Time was missing to testcorrectly this tool, and the first study which was made was not completely positive. Further studiesshould be carried out, for instance deterministic ones (using real past data) whose results could becompared to reality.Some complementary studies were made from a fictitious system, in order to study the impact of someparameters when computing use values and operations schedules. The conclusions of these studiesare the little impacts that changes in gas prices and start-up costs parameters have on the global resultsand the importance of an accurate choice in the time periods durations used for the computations.Unfortunately these conclusions might be too specific as they were made on short study periods.Further case studies should be done in order to reach more general conclusions.

<p>In the US, seven regional transmission organizations (RTOs) operate wholesale electricity markets within three largely independent transmission systems, the largest of which includes five RTO regions and many vertically integrated utilities.</p> <p>RTOs operate a day-ahead and a real-time market. In the day-ahead market, generation and demand-side resources are optimally scheduled based on bids and offers for the next day. Those schedules are adjusted according to actual operating conditions in the real-time market. Both markets involve a unit commitment calculation, a mixed integer program that determines which generators will be online, and an economic dispatch calculation, an optimization determines the output of each online generator for every interval and calculates locational marginal prices (LMPs).</p> <p>The use of LMPs for the management of congestion in RTO transmission systems has brought efficiency and transparency to the operation of electric power systems and provides price signals that highlight the need for investment in transmission and generation. Through this work, we aim to extend these efficiency and transparency gains to the coordination across RTOs. Existing market-based inter-regional coordination schemes are limited to incremental changes in real-time markets. </p> <p>We propose a multi-regional unit-commitment that enables coordination in the day-ahead timeframe by applying a distributed approach to approximate a system-wide optimal commitment and dispatch while allowing each region to largely maintain their own rules, model only internal transmission up to the boundary, and keep sensitive financial information confidential. A heuristic algorithm based on an extension of the alternating directions method of multipliers (ADMM) for the mixed integer program is applied to the unit commitment. </p> The proposed coordinated solution was simulated and compared to the ideal single-market scenario and to a representation of the current uncoordinated solution, achieving at least 58% of the maximum potential savings, which, in terms of the annual cost of electric generation in the US, could add up to nearly $7 billion per year. In addition to the coordinated day-ahead solution, we develop a distributed solution for financial transmission rights (FTR) auctions with minimal information sharing across RTOs that constitutes the first known work to provide a viable option for market participants to seamlessly hedge price variability exposure on cross-border transactions.

The unpredictability and variability of wind power generation can pose an economical risk to the wind power producer when participating in the day-ahead market and delivering the committed generation. These risks come from the creation of imbalances due to a mismatch between the sold and real generation fed to the grid. Energy Storage System (ESS) are a good solution for the wind power producer to plan the operation of the wind farm once the day-ahead market prices are cleared. However, depending on the price forecasts and wind generation, one type of storage technology might be more optimal than others. This is due to the fact that lithium-ion batteries have costs, power and energy ratings and limits that differ from other ESS (vanadium redox flow batteries, supercapacitors, pumped hydro or even other lithium-ion batteries with different chemistries). Hence, a multi-energy storage system technology solution can be proposed to be combined with a wind farm in order to both optimise the bids in the day-ahead market and to take part in current and emerging electricity markets. For this purpose, a mathematical model has been developed, and it provides the optimal bidding strategy to the day-ahead market and the most convenient operational planning for the energy storage systems. Based on the expected daily profits, a yearly stream of revenues is obtained and an overall techno-economical assessment is provided. The results show that, with the current capital costs of energy storage systems, the multi-ESS hybrid wind farm would recover the initial investment after 2-5 years depending on the ESS combinations. Moreover, the wind power producer would need an extra stream of revenues in order for it to be more profitable than the wind farm operating without storage blocks. / Den oförutsägbara och varierande vindkraftsproduktionen kan utgöra en teknisk och ekonomisk risk för vindkraftsproducenten när denne deltar i dayahead-marknaden och levererar den sålda energin. Dessa risker beror på att det uppstår obalanser på grund av bristande överensstämmelse mellan den sålda och den verkliga produktionen som matas in i nätet. Energilagringssystem (ESS på engelska) är en bra lösning för vindkraftsproducenten för att planera driften av vindkraftparken när priserna på dagen före marknaden är klara. Beroende på prisprognoserna och vindkraftsproduktionen kan dock en typ av lagringsteknik vara mer optimal än andra. Detta beror på att litiumjonbatterier har kostnader, effekt- och energimärkningar och gränser som skiljer sig från dem som gäller för vanadiumredoxflödesbatterier, superkondensatorer, pumpad vattenkraft eller till och med andra litiumjonbatterier med olika kemiska sammansättningar. Därför kan man använda en teknisk lösning med olika typer av energilager som kombineras för att både optimera budgivningen på day-ahead-marknaden och för att delta i nuvarande och nya elmarknader. För detta ändamål har en matematisk modell utvecklats som ger den optimala budstrategin för day-ahead-marknadenochdenmestpraktiskadriftsplaneringen för energilagringssystemen. På grundval av de förväntade dagliga vinsterna erhålls en årlig intäktsström och en övergripande teknisk-ekonomisk bedömning görs. Resultaten visar att med de nuvarande kapitalkostnaderna för energilagringssystem skulle återbetalningstiden för en vindkraftpark med flera olika energilager vara 2-5 år beroende på vilka energilager som kombinerats. Dessutom skulle vindkraftsproducenten behöva en extra intäktsström för att bli mer lönsam än en vindkraftpark som drivs utan lagringsblock.

[ES] Los Sistemas de Distribución de Calor Urbanos (SDCU) son una tecnología madura para el suministro eficiente de calor en las ciudades. En el contexto de la crisis climática y del objetivo de descarbonizar el sector de la calefacción, estos sistemas pueden desempeñar un papel muy importante. En principio, los SDCU existentes actualmente están basados principalmente en el uso de combustibles fósiles, por lo que forman parte del problema. Sin embargo, mediante la integración de plantas de generación de calor renovables, los SDCU pueden ofrecer un gran potencial para apoyar la transición hacia un suministro de calor sin combustibles fósiles. Esta transición se ve dificultada por diversas barreras. Por ejemplo, la necesidad de bajas temperaturas de suministro para que la integración de las plantas renovables de generación de calor sea rentable. Sin embargo, dado que las plantas de generación de calor fósiles existentes no se benefician de una reducción de la temperatura, existe un efecto de bloqueo en los modelos de negocio establecidos. En la investigación actual, la resolución de las barreras se centra en soluciones individuales para cuestiones específicas y en estrategias de calor para un nivel general. Como las barreras están fuertemente interrelacionadas, las empresas de distribución de calor urbano requieren una metodología de transición sistémica para sus actividades específicas en los diferentes ámbitos de planificación y operación. Tras constatar su ausencia en la bibliografía, la presente tesis pretende desarrollar una metodología integral que facilite dicha transición de forma rentable. Para la realización de esta tarea, esta tesis introduce un enfoque de marco que combina conceptos independientes nuevos y existentes, construyéndose sobre una estructura diseñada en los ocho «ámbitos» de interés de los SDCU. Estos ámbitos de los SDCU clasifican las actividades en los diferentes campos de las problemáticas de este tipo de sistemas. Para abordar las actividades de planificación y operación en las empresas de distribución de calor urbano, estas actividades se integran en el nuevo «marco» que se clasifica según los tres ámbitos de los SDCU: «diseño», «planificación operativa» y «operación». Dicho marco resume las actividades relacionadas según los procesos y las vincula mediante mecanismos técnicos y económicos. Estos mecanismos se plantean de forma que todas las actividades se incentiven para facilitar la transición. Se propone una nueva estructura organizativa que permita la introducción de la competencia, al mismo tiempo que el marco asegura la llamada suboptimización, la prevención del abuso de poder en el mercado y la restricción de las inversiones. Además, permite a los productores de calor independientes integrarse en el sistema. Complementariamente, el marco integra las tecnologías más relevantes que ofrecen flexibilidad al sistema para compensar las fluctuaciones de la producción. En esta tesis se ha desarrollado un marco adecuado para aplicar un «paradigma de transición» global a los SDCU existentes o futuros. Además, puede ser utilizado por los responsables políticos o municipales para mejorar las condiciones legales existentes y las estrategias locales de calor en relación con un sistema global. La tesis recomienda seguir investigando para la implementación del marco y una evaluación cuantitativa de la introducción de la competencia en los SDCU. / [CA] Els Sistemes de Distribució de Calor Urbans (SDCU) són una tecnologia madura per a la provisió eficient de calor a les ciutats. En el context de la crisi climàtica i de l'objectiu de descarbonitzar el sector de la calefacció, aquests sistemes poden exercir un paper molt important. En principi, els SDCU existents actualment estan basats principalment en l'ús de combustibles fòssils, per la qual cosa formen part del problema. No obstant això, mitjançant la integració de plantes de generació de calor renovables, els SDCU poden oferir un gran potencial per a donar suport a la transició cap a una provisió de calor sense combustibles fòssils. Aquesta transició es veu dificultada per diverses barreres. Per exemple, la necessitat de baixes temperatures de subministrament perquè la integració de les plantes renovables de generació de calor siga fructífera. No obstant això, atés que les plantes de generació de calor fòssils existents no es beneficien d'una reducció de la temperatura, existeix un efecte de bloqueig en els models de negoci establits. En la investigació actual, la resolució de les barreres se centra en solucions individuals per a qüestions específiques i en estratègies de calor per a un nivell general. Com les barreres estan fortament interrelacionades, les empreses de distribució de calor urbana requereixen una metodologia de transició sistèmica per a les seues activitats específiques en els diferents àmbits de planificació i operació. Després de constatar la seua absència en la bibliografia, la present tesi pretén desenvolupar una metodologia integral que facilite aquesta transició de manera profitosa. Per a la realització d'aquesta tasca, aquesta tesi introdueix un enfocament de marc que combina conceptes independents nous i existents, construint-se sobre una estructura dissenyada en els huit «àmbits» d'interés dels SDCU. Aquests àmbits dels SDCU classifiquen les activitats en els diferents camps de les problemàtiques d'aquest tipus de sistemes. Per a abordar les activitats de planificació i operació en les empreses de distribució de calor urbana, aquestes activitats s'integren en el nou «marc» que es classifica segons els tres àmbits dels SDCU: «disseny», «planificació operativa» i «operació». Aquest marc resumeix les activitats relacionades segons els processos i les vincula mitjançant mecanismes tècnics i econòmics. Aquests mecanismes es plantegen de manera que totes les activitats s'incentiven per a facilitar la transició. Es proposa una nova estructura organitzativa que permeta la introducció de la competència, al mateix temps que el marc assegura l'anomenada suboptimització, la prevenció de l'abús de poder en el mercat i la restricció de les inversions. A més, permet als productors de calor independents integrar-se en el sistema. Complementàriament, el marc integra les tecnologies més rellevants que ofereixen flexibilitat al sistema per a compensar les fluctuacions de la producció. En aquesta tesi s'ha desenvolupat un marc adequat per a aplicar un «paradigma de transició» global als SDCU existents o futurs. A més, pot ser utilitzat pels responsables polítics o municipals per a millorar les condicions legals existents i les estratègies locals de calor en relació amb un sistema global. La tesi recomana continuar investigant per a la implementació del marc i una avaluació quantitativa de la introducció de la competència en els SDCU. / [EN] District heating systems (DHSs) are a mature technology for an efficient heat supply in cities. In the context of the climate crisis and the related goal of a decarbonized heating sector, DHSs play an ambivalent role. As existing DHSs are mostly based on fossil fuels, they are part of the problem. However, as they can also integrate renewable heating plants, DHSs offer a great potential to support the transition towards a fossil-free heat supply. This transition is hindered by several barriers. For example, low supply temperatures are needed for the economically efficient integration of renewable heating plants. However, since existing fossil heating plants marginally benefit from a reduction of the temperature, a lock-in effect to the established business models exists. In the current research, resolving the barriers is focused either on individual solutions for specific issues or on heat strategies for a general level. Since the barriers are strongly interrelated, district heating (DH) companies require a systemic transition methodology for their specific activities in the different fields of planning and operation. Since such a transition methodology is identified as lacking in the literature, this thesis aims to develop a comprehensive methodology that facilitates the transition in an economically efficient way. To develop such a transition methodology, this thesis introduces a framework approach that combines new and existing independent concepts and that is built on a newly developed structure of eight "DH scopes." These DH scopes classify the activities in the different fields of DH concerns. To address the planning and operation activities in DH companies, these activities are integrated into the new "framework" that is classified according to the three DH scopes "design," "operative planning," and "operation." The framework summarizes the related activities according to processes and links them using technical and economic mechanisms. These mechanisms are considered in such a way that all activities are incentivized to facilitate the transition. A new organizational structure is proposed that allows for the introduction of competition while the framework secures so-called suboptimization, abuse of market power, or investment restraint. Independent heat producers are integrated in a system-serving way. The framework integrates the relevant technologies that offer flexibility to the system to compensate for fluctuation in production. In this thesis, a framework is devised that is suitable for implementing a comprehensive "transition paradigm" to existing or future DHSs. Further, it can be used by policymakers or municipalities to improve existing legal conditions and local heat strategies in relation to a comprehensive overall system. The thesis recommends further investigation for the implementation of the framework and a quantitative evaluation of the introduction of competition to DHSs. / Lorenzen, P. (2022). A Comprehensive Framework and Associated Methodology for the Design, Operative Planning, and Operation of District Heating Systems to Facilitate the Transition Towards a Fully Renewable Heat Supply [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/185882 / TESIS