Banks represent one of the most important parts of the economy in the world. As a result, decisions of bank management affect not just the direct bank stakeholders but the state of the economy and society as a whole. This became evident during the latest financial crisis in 2007 where the failure of one bank resulted in the domino falling that affected banks globally. The regulators increase their attention to the risks that bank face and their measures and requirements. Therefore, the research within the banking area has important consequences from both theoretical and practical side.   The purpose of this project is to investigate whether there is a relationship between dividends that Nordic banks pay and different types of risks such as market, credit (including default), liquidity and operational. The results of the research will contribute to the knowledge in finance and help different stakeholders to understand possible reasons for different dividends level.   The methodological position works as a foundation for the conduction of the research. The epistemological and ontological views applied in this project are positivism and objectivism. The deductive research approach and quantitative research strategy are used for the research and thus the collection and analysis of the archival data of 19 Nordic banks over five year time horizon. The research can therefore be described as a panel study.   Based on the previous research papers the following proxies for risks have been used in the research: market risk – capital requirement for market risk to total assets, credit risk – loan loss provisions to total assets, default risk – Altman Z-score, liquidity risk –liquidity coverage ratio, operational risk – economic capital (capital requirement) for operational risk to total asset.   Ordinary Least Square regression analysis is performed over the collected data in order to fulfil the purpose of the project. The tests results identify that there are no statistically significant relationship between dividends and market, credit, default and liquidity risks and the statistically significant negative relationship between the dividends and operational risk in Nordic banks. These findings contribute to a new knowledge within the finance and banking area in particular. Additionally, this project might be used as a foundation for the further research within the field. The findings are also useful for stakeholders in understanding banks risk level.

透過KMV公司用來衡量公開發行公司違約風險之Private Firm Model (PFM)，衡量台灣公開發行的產壽險保險公司之違約距離，藉由違約距離與違約機率之關係，以得知我國未上市產壽險公司違約風險之大小。估計資產市值時，本文以稅前息前折耗前淨利(EBITDA)前三年、前四年、前五年的平均，期望解決公開發行公司所對應出資產市值為負的情況，但結果不顯著。估計資產報酬標準差時，對觀察值公司規模大小進行群組區分。壽險公司分組臨界點11.25，產險公司分組臨界點10.4，小規模群組呈現顯著。 由於我國上市保險公司家數有限，使得未上市保險公司之資產市值及資產報酬標準差必須以上市保險公司之迴歸式來估計，但少數幾家未上市保險公司估計出來之結果並不合理。並且都在往後的一年或兩年內即退出市場，或者這些少數公司，在市場的認知下原本就是具有財務問題之公司，故PFM可以適用於我們產壽險公司。 / This paper mainly discusses the listed companies’ default risks by KMV’s Private Firm model (PMF) and focuses on evaluating Taiwan’s insurance companies’ distance-to-default (DD). By comparing DD with respective historical default probability, we can obtain the magnitude of default risk of each listed companies. In estimating market asset value, we utilize the average EBITDA of 3-year-ago, 4-year-ago and 5-year-ago data as the proxy to resolve the probable minus-asset-value phenomenon, however the result is insignificant. Pertaining to forecasting asset variance, we categorize the studied companies by its respective capitalization. 11.25 is the decision point for life insurance companies and 10.4 is for Property & Casualty companies. Among the researched objectives, we find that small category displays significantly. Because of insufficient data from publicly traded insurers, while conducting asset value and asset variance by implementing regression methodology, our conclusion indicates acceptable only with few unsatisfactory exceptions. We successfully predict those distressed insurers stepped out the market in the following years. Hereafter, we assert that the PFM model is suitable for both life and P&C companies.

A convertible bond (CB) is a hybrid security possessing the characteristics of both debt and equity. It gives the holder the right to convert the bond into a pre-specified number of shares (usually by the same issuer of the CB) until maturity of the bond, and may also contain additional features such as callability and putability. CB’s along with all hybrid securities are difficult to value due to their uncertain income stream. In this dissertation several convertible bond valuation models are suggested, but with particular attention to the calibration of the underlying inputs into the model and also by taking default risk into account, which is extremely important given the subordination of convertibles. The models range from the basic component models that decompose the CB into a straight bond and an exchange/call option; to more sophisticated ones consisting of stochastic interest rates, default risk, volatility structures, and even some exotics such as exchangeable and inflation-linked convertibles. An important aspect often missed by CB valuation models is the presence of negative convexity for extremely low share prices. As such a credit spread function dependent upon the underlying share price is introduced into the Tsiveriotis and Fernandes, and Hung and Wang models which improve upon the accuracy of the original models. Once a reliable model has been developed it becomes necessary to take advantage of convertible arbitrage trading strategies if they exist. The typical delta hedge, gamma hedge and option strategies that many convertible hedge funds employ are explained including the underlying risks with respect to the “Greeks”. Copyright / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2009. / Mathematics and Applied Mathematics / unrestricted

Svensk fastighetsmarknad blomstrar med anledning av rekordlåga räntor, bostadsbrist och näst intill inga vakanser. De låga räntorna har lett till att fler tar sig an fastighetsmarknaden, samtidigt som den nämnda bostadsbristen kan tänkas öka incitamenten att investera i fastigheter. Riskerna för fastigheter bör vara snarlika oavsett läge om med beaktande av att belåning är billigt, bostadsbristen hög och vakanserna närapå obefintliga. Det är därför befogat att ställa frågan hur det kommer sig att fastighetsföretag har olika direktavkastningskrav på fastigheter belägna i olika lägen? Studiens syfte är att få förståelse för hur fastighetsägare tänker när de sätter sina avkastningskrav och försöka förklara vad det finns för motiv till att de uppställer skilda avkastningskrav beroende på var fastigheterna är belägna. Vi undersöker också hur fastighetsbolagen hanterar de risker som finns kopplade till fastighetsmarknaden. En kvantitativ enkät har besvarats av 31 fastighetsbolag som arbetar med hyreslägenheter runt om i Sveriges tre största städer, Stockholm, Malmö och Göteborg. Enkäten ska ha besvarats av företagets analytiker och/eller av de investeringsansvariga på företagen. Enkätsvaren gav en inblick i fastighetsföretagens bestånd, deras avkastningskrav, vakanser, omflyttningar, standardrisk och i vilket läge de anser att risken är störst att äga fastigheter. Arbetet har inte har inte tagit hänsyn till skillnader i företagens storlek utan enbart deras verksamhetsområde det vill säga hyresbostäder. Studiens resultat bekräftar att fastighetsföretagen har väldigt låga vakanser i sitt bestånd oberoende av fastigheternas läge. Vår regressionsmodell förklarar 54,7% av direktavkastningskraven och för att signifikant kunna säkerställa vad som är bakgrunden till fastighetsbolagens direktavkastningskrav och riskbedömning krävs fler observationer och fler förklarande variabler. / Abstract Title: Can difference in yield be justified? Subject, Course: Real Estate Science, Bachelor Thesis 15 creditsAuthors: Hjalmar Åhman and Sebastian PeterssonAdvisor: Peter KarpestamKeywords: Risk, yield, vacancies, default risk, real estate housingSwedish real estate market is booming due to low interest rates, housing shortages and almost no vacancies. The low interest rates have made it more interesting to invest in real estate, while the mentioned housing shortage may conceivably increase the incentive to invest in real estate. The risks for real estate should be similar regardless of the situation if one looks at the above, where the borrowing is cheap, the housing shortage is high and the vacancies close to non-existing. It is therefore a fair question to ask why real estate companies have different direct yield requirements for housing properties in different locations?The purpose of the study is to gain an insight into how property owners think when they set their requirements for returns and understand why the yield requirements are different in different locations. In connection therewith, we will also study how the property companies handle the risks associated with the real estate market.A quantitative questionnaire has been answered by 31 real estate companies that manage rental apartments around Sweden's three largest cities, Stockholm, Malmö and Gothenburg. The survey was addressed to the company's analysts or investment managers. The questionnaire responses gave an insight into the companies' portfolios, their yield requirements, vacancies, relocations, standard risk and in what position they believe the risk is greatest to own real estate.The study's results confirm that the real estate companies have very low vacancies in their stock regardless of their location. Our regression model explains 54.7% of the direct yield requirements and in order to have substantially certain of the background to the property companies' direct yield requirements and risk assessment, more observations and more explanatory variables may be required.

Regarding quantifying uncertainties in prediction, two projects with different perspectives and application backgrounds are presented in this dissertation. The goal of the first project is to predict the corporate default risks based on large-scale time-to-event and covariate data in the context of controlling credit risks. Specifically, we propose a competing risks model to incorporate exits of companies due to default and other reasons. Because of the stochastic and dynamic nature of the corporate risks, we incorporate both company-level and market-level covariate processes into the event intensities. We propose a parsimonious Markovian time series model and a dynamic factor model (DFM) to efficiently capture the mean and correlation structure of the high-dimensional covariate dynamics. For estimating parameters in the DFM, we derive an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm in explicit forms under necessary constraints. For multi-period default risks, we consider both the corporate-level and the market-level predictions. We also develop prediction interval (PI) procedures that synthetically take uncertainties in the future observation, parameter estimation, and the future covariate processes into account. In the second project, to quantify the uncertainties in the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators and compute the exact tolerance interval (TI) factors regarding the nominal confidence level, we propose algorithms for two-sided control-the-center and control-both-tails TI for complete or Type II censored data following the (log)-location-scale family of distributions. Our approaches are based on pivotal properties of ML estimators of parameters for the (log)-location-scale family and utilize the Monte-Carlo simulations. While for Type I censored data, only approximate pivotal quantities exist. An adjusted procedure is developed to compute the approximate factors. The observed CP is shown to be asymptotically accurate by our simulation study. Our proposed methods are illustrated using real-data examples. / Ph. D.

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Yes / This paper examines how deviation from firms’ target leverage influences their decisions on undertaking foreign acquisitions. Using a sample of 5,746 completed bids by UK acquirers from 1987 to 2012, we observe that over-deviated firms are more likely to acquire foreign targets. Consistent with co-insurance theory, we find that over-deviated firms engage in foreign acquisition deals to relieve their financial constraints and to mitigate their financial distress risk. We also note that foreign acquisitions enhance over-deviated firms’ value and performance, measured by Tobin’s q and return on assets (ROA) respectively. These findings support the view that over-deviated firms pursue the most value-enhancing acquisitions. Overall, this paper suggests that co-insurance effects, value creation and performance improvements are the main incentives for over-deviated firms’ involvement in foreign acquisitions.

Yes / We develop an intensity-based model of municipal yields, making simultaneous use of the CDS premiums of the insurers and both insured and uninsured municipal bond transactions. We estimate the model individually for 61 municipal issuers by exploiting the dramatic decline in credit quality of the bond insurers from July 2007 to June 2008, and decompose the municipal yield spread based on the estimated parameters. The decomposition reveals a dominant role of the liquidity component as well as interactions between liquidity and default similar to those modeled by Chen et al. (2016) for corporate bonds. Towards the end of the sample period, our model also reproduces the "yield inversion" phenomenon documented by Bergstresser et al. (2010).

This thesis consists of an introduction and five articles in the field of financial mathematics. The main topics of the papers comprise credit risk modelling, optimal stopping theory, and Dynkin games. An underlying theme in all of the articles is valuation of various financial instruments. Namely, Paper I deals with valuation of a game version of a perpetual American option where the parties disagree about the distributional properties of the underlying process, Papers II and III investigate pricing of default-sensitive contingent claims, Paper IV treats CVA (credit value adjustment) modelling for a portfolio consisting of American options, and Paper V studies a problem motivated by model calibration in pricing of corporate bonds. In each of the articles, we deal with an underlying stochastic process that is continuous in time and defined on some probability space. Namely, Papers I-IV treat stochastic processes with continuous paths, whereas Paper V assumes that the underlying process is a jump-diffusion with finite jump intensity. The information level in Paper I is the filtration generated by the stock value. In articles III and IV, we consider investors whose information flow is designed as a progressive enlargement with default time of the filtration generated by the stock price, whereas in Paper II the information flow is an initial enlargement. Paper V assumes that the default is a hitting time of the firm's value and thus the underlying filtration is the one generated by the process modelling this value. Moreover, in all of the papers the risk-free bonds are assumed for simplicity to have deterministic prices so that the focus is on the uncertainty coming from the stock price and default risk.

本文主要探討股票選擇權的隱含波動率是否能夠有效反應公司的財務風險與違約風險，並使用Merton (1974)與Black and Scholes (1973)的選擇權評價模型推導出每日的負債權益比率，作為公司財務風險的代理變數；違約風險的代理變數則是使用Bandyopadhyay (2007)的風險中立違約機率與真實世界違約機率。首先，本文觀察到隱含波動率和股票報酬率之間的確存在負向關係，除此之外，也發現非系統隱含波動率與股票報酬率之間也有負向關係。進一步研究非系統隱含波動率是否能夠反應公司風險，結果顯示當公司的財務風險與違約風險增加時，非系統隱含波動率會上升。最後，本文比較非系統隱含波動率與GARCH模型的波動率對公司財務風險與違約風險的資訊內涵，並執行包圍檢定、工具變數兩階段迴歸分析與非包覆模型的檢定，發現非系統隱含波動率的資訊內涵無法包圍GARCH模型的波動率，但兩者的資訊內涵互相交集。