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Análise prospectiva do desenvolvimento do produto nas indústrias automobilísticas de veículos comerciais instaladas no BrasilKubo, Pablo Yugo Yoshiura [UNESP] 06 March 2009 (has links) (PDF)
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kubo_pyy_dr_guara.pdf: 854634 bytes, checksum: c91e3063ee56f2acff6f33e070c95dd7 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / O objetivo principal desta Tese é analisar prospectivamente as tendências sobre as estratégias mundiais de desenvolvimento dos veículos comerciais frente aos cenários nacional e internacional atuais. Para tanto, foi realizada uma pesquisa usando o método Delphi, que consiste em regular, sistematicamente, a apresentação de perguntas acerca de um determinado problema a um grupo de especialistas. Para um levantamento mais abrangente optou-se por aplicar os questionários a três grupos distintos: Acadêmicos, Executivos das montadoras de veículos comerciais e Executivos das indústrias de autopeças. É possível concluir, após a análise dos resultados, que o Brasil possui atualmente uma posição confortável na comercialização de caminhões e ônibus, além de certa autonomia no desenvolvimento desses veículos em relação às empresas matrizes. Adicionalmente destaca-se que poucos foram os argumentos que justificariam mudanças desse cenário até o ano de 2018, porém há claras deficiências – como ausência de profissionais (engenheiros) qualificados no mercado e necessidade de maior intercâmbio entre empresas e Universidades - que devem ser analisadas e superadas de modo a garantir ao Brasil a sustentabilidade no desenvolvimento deste tipo de produto. / The main objective of this Thesis is to present a prospective analysis about the tendencies of the world wide strategies of commercial vehicles’ development, in relation to the current local and international scenery. It has been done a research by using the Delphi method, which consists to regulate, systematically, the presentation of questions about a specific problem to a group of specialists. In order to guarantee more representative data, it has been adopted three distinct groups: Academics, OEMs Managers and OEM´s suppliers Managers. It is noticeable, after the data’s analysis, that Brazil has nowadays a comfortable status on the commercial vehicles’ market and also a good autonomy on product development. The specialists presented few arguments that could justify the modification of this scenery up to 2018, although there are clear evidences – like lack of qualified engineers on Brazilian market and the necessity of a better exchange of knowledge between the OEMs and Universities – that must be analyzed and suppressed, in order to guarantee the Brazilian product development sustainability in this segment.
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Previsao Tecnologica a medio e longo prazo sobre os processos de geracao de hidrogenio, considerando cenarios futuros probabilisticos que levem em conta o desenvolvimento das pilhas a combustivel / Technological forecasting at medium and long term about hydrogen generation process, considering probabilistics future scenarios and taking into account fuel cells developmentNAKANO, MILTON S. 09 October 2014 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:52:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:02:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Dissertacao (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP
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Formacao de competencias gerenciais: um fator de desenvolvimento de liderancas - estudo de caso no IPEN / Identifying and building consensus about the essential competences for R & D managers - case study at IPENGIMENES, CELSO H. 09 October 2014 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:26:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T13:56:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / A capacidade de inovação e o desenvolvimento tecnológico em um instituto de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento - P&D dependem, entre outras coisas, de um corpo gerencial com competências especiais. O presente trabalho desenvolveu e aplicou uma metodologia para o mapeamento de competências, filtrar e priorizar o conjunto de competências gerenciais consideradas essenciais. O método foi aplicado e testado no Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares ipen;, que além de P&D também dedica-se ao ensino e produção. A metodologia inclui os seguintes elementos: (a) garimpagem, compilação e consolidação de descrição de competências que são consideradas essenciais em instituições semelhantes; (b) ajustes de enunciados e agrupamento de acordo com os critérios do Prêmio Nacional de Qualidade PNQ; (c) filtragem e redução da lista por consulta à população de partes interessadas no ipen; (d) priorização em 2 rodadas Delphi com a mesma população; (e) análise e formatação dos produtos resultantes usando-se técnicas de estatística descritiva uni e multivariada. O trabalho foi bastante bem sucedido e, tendo em vista as elevadas taxas de retorno na pesquisa Delphi, isto deu credibilidade aos resultados obtidos. Palavras / Dissertacao (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP
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Previsao Tecnologica a medio e longo prazo sobre os processos de geracao de hidrogenio, considerando cenarios futuros probabilisticos que levem em conta o desenvolvimento das pilhas a combustivel / Technological forecasting at medium and long term about hydrogen generation process, considering probabilistics future scenarios and taking into account fuel cells developmentNAKANO, MILTON S. 09 October 2014 (has links)
Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:52:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:02:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / As Pilhas a Combustível estão cada vez mais atraindo o interesse como dispositivos de conversão de energia eficientes e, principalmente limpos. O Hidrogênio que alimenta as Pilhas a Combustível, deve ser gerado também de forma eficiente e limpa. Este trabalho utiliza a metodologia Delphi para Previsão Tecnológica aplicada ao assunto Geração de Hidrogênio, identificando os métodos que mais provavelmente serão utilizados no futuro para obtermos Hidrogênio aqui no Brasil. O método Delphi consiste na aplicação de um questionário a um grupo de especialistas na área em estudo. Foi elaborado um questionário contendo 10 questões direcionados ao assunto Produção de Hidrogênio para utilização em Pilhas a Combustível. Este questionário foi enviado a 677 pesquisadores através do correio eletrônico e obtivemos um retorno de 115 respostas que foram tabuladas e receberam um tratamento estatístico. Estes dados foram reenviados aos respondentes do questionário para uma avaliação de suas respostas e uma possível alteração. Após o ciclo de avaliações obtivemos os resultados finais que foram novamente tabulados e tratados estatisticamente. Através da análise destes dados chegamos aos métodos mais prováveis de produção de hidrogênio que serão utilizados no futuro, se vier a ser utilizado em larga escala. / Dissertacao (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP
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A Delphi application in the developing of a pattern language approach to health facilities design guidelinesForbes, Ian January 1982 (has links)
The use of Standards to reduce the complexity of Health Facilities Design has become an indispensable and integral part of the planning process. Unfortunately the structure of present Standards is inflexible, and while this structure may have been acceptable in the past, the standards it produces have become ineffective. Such Standards have been unable to adapt to the changing attitudes and needs of the planning participants who respond to the societal changes around them. It is our objective to develop a method which can build better Standards.
In the first chapter we examine the structural problems
of Standards and find that there is a fundamental difference between the positive purpose of Standards as used by hospitals and planners and the restrictive purposes of Standards used by government. We have used the terms Guidelines and Standards to denote these different contexts. Having established that a good Standard is one which is similar to a Guideline, we then explore an alternative structure developed at Berkeley, California, called a "Pattern" which we observe will satisfy the requirements for "good" Standards. Since Pattern formats are admirably suited to developing societally-responsive Guidelines and Standards we evolve a method to assemble these new Standards.
This method is based upon the Delphi Technique. It uses the technique's inherent advantages to establish communication
between two groups of experts (Planners and Medical) who then interact to explore problems and solutions
in planning Newborn Nurseries and Neonatal Intensive Care Units. The methodology which is described in Chapter 2 uses the classical components of a Policy Delphi with three rounds of questionnaires sent to Medical Experts (Physicians and Nurses) in various parts of British Columbia and Alberta. It adds such variations as the including of input from the Planner Experts as one method for the feed back of information. This special Delphi design anticipates effects from independent variables and builds in compensatory steps. One of the steps included is a Mini-Survey of a larger group of potential participants,
to evaluate the Patterns resulting from the Delphi Study. This larger group was sixteen hospitals in British Columbia and ten hospitals in Alberta.
Chapter 3 describes the details in carrying out the three questioning rounds of this modified Delphi method, and its success in assisting the production of a series of Nursery Patterns which are usable as Guidelines. In the methodology is the inherent capability for retaining flexibility, and there are a series of process adjustments that occur. Evaluation of the method in Chapter 4 shows that despite weaknesses, both anticipated and unanticipated, the results provide an important starting point that helps create better, more usable Standards. Possible future developments are briefly mentioned in the hope that evaluation and change will occur as the planning environment changes about us. / Medicine, Faculty of / Population and Public Health (SPPH), School of / Graduate
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Previsão tecnológica a médio/longo prazos sobre a evolução das propriedades e de mercado dos polímeros de engenharia / Technology foresight in the medium /long-term evolution of properties on the market and engineering polymersCarvalho, Ricardo Venicio Cuzziol de 18 August 2018 (has links)
Orientador: Wagner dos Santos Oliveira / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Química / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-18T13:14:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
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Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: A indústria em geral e particularmente o segmento plástico enfrentam uma época de competitividade global e acirrada. Além disso, pressões sociais como a questão ambiental, eficiência energética e busca por produtos de qualidade são fatores que impulsionam a demanda por inovações e aprimoramentos constantes. Dentro do mercado dos polímeros, os plásticos de engenharia representam a fatia de materiais com melhor potencial para estes aprimoramentos. É objetivo deste trabalho avaliar as principais tendências de melhoria de propriedades, novas tecnologias de modificação e reforços, novas aplicações potenciais e volumes de consumo para os representantes dessa classe de materiais para os próximos 20 a 30 anos. O primeiro material selecionado para este estudo foi o Nylon 66, devido à sua grande versatilidade de modificação e aplicação além de ser um dos principais representantes dos polímeros de engenharia. O polipropileno também foi selecionado devido à sua grande versatilidade e possibilidade de utilização em aplicações de engenharia, especialmente na forma de compostos. A técnica de prospecção tecnológica utilizada foi o método Delphi que se baseia em um questionário enviado a especialistas da área em rodadas consecutivas para a obtenção de um consenso. O anonimato dos participantes, análise estatística dos resultados e feedback aos respondentes são as principais características deste método. Um questionário envolvendo os aspectos tecnológicos e mercadológicos foi elaborado e enviado aos respondentes em duas rodadas. São observadas nos resultados obtidos tendências de crescimento no mercado de polímeros de engenharia em aplicações de alta temperatura e em substituição aos materiais convencionais como os metais e cerâmicas, principalmente no mercado automotivo, industrial e eletroeletrônico. Avanços em propriedades como performance termo-mecânica e balanço entre rigidez e tenacidade além de inovações nas tecnologias de manufatura e moldagem dos polímeros de engenharia foram indicados como tendências futuras. Medidas para superar obstáculos em custos , definição de políticas públicas e privadas que viabilizem atividades de reciclagem, capacitação e mão de obra e o alinhamento entre indústria, academia e governo serão fundamentais para o sucesso dos polímeros de engenharia nas suas mais diversas aplicações / Abstract: Industry in general and the plastics segment in particular are facing a time of global and strong competition. Also, social claims like environmental care, energy efficient technologies and the need for high quality products are boosting innovations and improvements. On the plastics market, engineering polymers are the best suited materials for these improvements. It is the objective of this work to evaluate the tendencies for improved properties, new modification and reinforcement technologies, new potential applications and volumes of commercialization for this class of materials over the next 20 to 30 years. The first material selected for the research was Nylon 66 due to its huge ease of modification and versatility for application, in addition it is one of the most important engineering polymers. Polypropilene was also selected due to its versatility and possibility of utilization in engineering applications, specially in compounds. Delphi method was used as the research technique, it is based on a questionnaire sent to experts in polymers in successive rounds as a means of achieving consensus. Anonymity of participants, statistical evaluation of results and feedback to the experts are the main characteristics of this method. A questionnaire covering technological and market aspects was developed and sent to the participants in two rounds. It is seen in the results a tendency of growth in the market of engineering polymers for high temperature applications and in traditional materials replacement, like metals and ceramics, specially in the automotive, industrial and electro-electronic markets. Improvements in properties like thermomechanical performance and balance between stiffness and toughness in addition to technology innovations in manufacturing and molding of engineering polymers were pointed as future tendencies. Measures to overcome cost issues, public and private policy implementation to facilitate recicling, work force qualification and alignment between industry, academy and government will be vital for the success of enginering polymers in their various applications / Mestrado / Ciencia e Tecnologia de Materiais / Mestre em Engenharia Química
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A wellness programme to prevent and manage compassion fatigue amongst nurses working in an anti-retroviral clinic in a public tertiary hospitalTellie, Mercia Jane January 2016 (has links)
Introduction: Compassion fatigue is an extreme state of tension and preoccupation with
the suffering of those being helped and affects those who work in caring professions.
Helping people in distress can traumatise the helper because of their empathetic ability.
Nurses who work in ARV clinics witness the suffering of their patients when they listen to
their patients' descriptions of the trauma that they have to cope with. The patients get the
chance to let go of the trauma and to share their concerns. Unfortunately the nurses often
absorb some of the emotional pain of their patients and not all nurses are equipped to
handle the situations in such a way that they do not become secondarily affected by the
trauma of their patients and therefore, become vulnerable to develop compassion fatigue.
If compassion fatigue is not identified in time and addressed adequately, the affected
nurses may develop feelings of hopelessness in their ability to take care of their patients
with detrimental effect on the quality of nursing care to these patients.
Aims: Firstly, to explore and describe the extent of the manifestation of compassion
fatigue amongst nurses working in antiretroviral clinics; and secondly, to develop a
wellness programme to aid in the identification and management of episodes of
compassion fatigue as well as the prevention of future occurrences of such episodes of
compassion fatigue amongst nurses working in antiretroviral clinics.
Methodology: The researcher conducted the study in two phases. In Phase one, a single
embedded case study design, with three sub-units situated within the case, namely
nurses who work in the adult, ante-natal and paediatric ARV clinics in a tertiary public
hospital, was used. Purposive sampling was used to select seven nurses. Data was
collected using semi-structured interviews. The researcher used content analysis as
described by Elo and Kyngäs (2008) to analyse the transcribed interviews. The themes
identified include the risk to develop compassion fatigue, manifestation of compassion
fatigue and strategies to prevent and manage compassion fatigue. For document analysis
the researcher used professional and enrolled nurses' job description and the employee
health and wellness programme for public service. In Phase two, the researcher
developed the wellness programme to aid in the identification, prevention and
management of compassion fatigue amongst nurses who work in antiretroviral clinics and
the Delphi Method was used to refine the wellness programme.
Findings: Nurses working in the ARV clinics are at risk of developing compassion fatigue
due to work environment issues such as challenges created by the health care system, lack of support from management, and their overwhelming work load. The cost of the
nurse-patient relationship also contributed to nurses being at risk of compassion fatigue.
Aspects that were identified that relate to the cost of a relationship with patients who are
HIV positive include caring for traumatised patients, vicarious exposure to traumatic
experiences of patients, and the influence caring for patients who are HIV positive has
had on nurses' personal lives and their families. Nurses can traumatise their family
members by continually not being available for them through emotional withdrawal.
Nurses presented with physical, psychological, spiritual symptoms and changes in their
behaviour that are indicative of compassion fatigue. Various strategies to prevent and
manage compassion fatigue were identified: both what nurses can do, and what they
expected from management. Nurses' job description is generic and does not spell out
their role and function within antiretroviral clinics. The implementation of the health and
wellness programme is lacking. The findings of Phase one and related literatures formed
the bases from which the researcher developed the wellness programme to aid with the
identification, prevention and management of compassion fatigue.
Conclusion: Nurses are at risk of developing compassion fatigue due to the cost of the
nurse-patient relationship with patients who are HIV positive. The key to prevention of
compassion fatigue is awareness and a number of strategies that can aid in the
identification, prevention and management of compassion fatigue have been identified
and included in the wellness programme. Managerial support and practicing of self-care is
important to maintain the health and well-being of nurses who work in antiretroviral clinic. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2016. / Nursing Science / PhD / Unrestricted
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Idea Generation and Exploration: Benefits and Limitations of the Policy Delphi Research MethodFranklin, Kathy K., Hart, Jan K. 01 January 2007 (has links)
Researchers use the policy Delphi method to explore a complex topic with little historical context that requires expert opinion to fully understand underlying issues. The benefit of this research technique is the use of experts who have more timely information than can be gleamed from extant literature. Additionally, those experts place researchers in a specific moment, thus increasing the possibility of capturing change over time. One limitation of the policy Delphi is the difficulty in developing an accurate initial questionnaire to start the process. The purpose of this article is to identify benefits and limitations of this research method.
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Development and Validation of Community-Based Participatory Research (CBPR) Competencies: A Delphi studyDari, Tahani Hisham January 2017 (has links)
No description available.
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Compassion in Professional Counseling: A Delphi StudyRaymond, Karen Denise 04 March 2020 (has links)
Compassion is related to the work of counselors, yet scholars have not agreed upon a standard definition of compassion beyond a superficial dictionary explanation. A Delphi study was conducted to discover the opinions of a panel of counseling experts on the subject of compassion. The purpose of the study was to identify and define compassion as it relates to the context of professional counseling, as well as identify associated skills, attributes, and behaviors. The study also explored how experienced counselors distinguish compassion as it is experienced or expressed professionally and personally. Fifteen panelists participated in three rounds of data collection via online survey. Panelists also received feedback from subsequent rounds. Themes emerged on perceptions of compassion, skills and abilities that convey compassion, situations that create compassion obstruction, and support of knowledge, training, and education on compassion. The results indicate that assumptions exist on understanding what compassion is and how to express it in a professional manner. Results further show that compassion is an understudied and unnoticed concept that needs more examination. / Doctor of Philosophy / People generally understand compassion to be an act of understanding the pain and suffering of another person with a desire to ease their pain. However, applying the concept to the work professional counselors do can be problematic because of the codes of conduct and principles needed to keep both the counselors and clients safe. Compassion is at the heart of counseling with the goal being to help individuals and families positively focus on their mental health to improve many areas of their lives. Currently, the counseling profession recognizes the importance of compassion but needs to research this concept more fully. This study used a Delphi methodology to learn from a group of expert counselors and counselor educators how they define compassion specific to the occupation of counseling. An additional purpose was to identify things counselors do and know that express or communicate compassion in counseling settings. The group of experts revealed that counselors know the healthy boundaries needed to keep the relationships between the client and themselves healthy. Counselors also know what may get in the way of showing or feeling compassion with their clients. The results of the study did define compassion in counseling, identified ways counselors show compassion, and helped set up a way to develop compassion over the occupational lifespan.
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