Operations Management / (M.Sc.(Operation Research))

Orientador: Antonio Batocchio / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-16T07:48:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Fragoso_BrunoBarreira_M.pdf: 3590640 bytes, checksum: 59c79674e5426e6915aac2c93e42eb4c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 / Resumo: Tendo em vista o cenário moderno globalizado, onde as organizações buscam um planejamento mais adequado de suas operações, torna-se importante realizar uma previsão da demanda dos produtos acabados, ou simplesmente demanda de vendas, que se aproxime dos números reais o máximo possível. Este trabalho tem como objetivo a proposição de um método para a criação de um processo de previsão de vendas, apoiado nas técnicas modernas de previsão de demanda, e nas ferramentas de gestão de processos. É feita uma discussão a respeito de como as técnicas de previsão de demanda podem ser analisadas, e até mesmo adaptadas, sob a ótica e conceitos de gestão de processos. Propõe-se então tal método, baseado em passos oriundos de boas práticas observadas, para o estabelecimento de um processo de previsão de vendas. Com a finalidade de verificar a potencialidade desta metodologia, apresenta-se um estudo de caso em uma empresa química da região de Campinas. Os passos para a criação deste processo foram cumpridos, desde a formação de um time de trabalho, passando pela análise do comportamento das demandas, escolha das técnicas de previsão e indicadores de desempenho, até a aplicação do piloto com proposição de melhorias e automatizações diversas. O método aplicado a este estudo de caso específico mostrou-se eficaz / Abstract: Based on the current modern and globalized scenario, within organizations look for a more adequate planning for its operations, it becomes important realizing a finished goods demand forecast, or simply sales forecast, which closes as possible to real sales numbers. This work objective is proposing a method for designing a sales forecast process, based on both modern demands forecast techniques and process management tools. A discussion was done regarding how demand forecast techniques can be analyzed, and even adapted under the process management concepts focus. This method, based on steps supported by good practices observed, is proposed for designing a sales forecast process. It is presented a case study at a Campinas region chemical industry with the objective of checking the potentially of this method. All steps for creating this process were completed, since the working team creation, passing through demand behavior analysis, forecast technique and performance indicator choosing, to the initial application with improvements and automations proposing. This method applied to this specific case study was considered efficient / Mestrado / Materiais e Processos de Fabricação / Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

In this thesis, we investigate the potential of improving demand management activities in the global supply chains. In the increasingly global world, commerce is becoming more complex with an incredible amount of internal and external information available for businesses to select, analyze, understand and react. We identify opportunities for companies to convert data and business information into actionable intelligence. We first study the logistics industry with real data. In the Less-than-Truckload (LTL) market, we analyze an extensive historical shipment database to identify important factors to estimate LTL market rates. Quantifying critical expert knowledge, we develop a price estimation model to help shippers reduce their logistics cost and carriers to better manage their demand. In our second study, we analyze a global supply chain in the high tech industry. Using the demand dependency structure of certain products, we identify collaboration opportunities in the ordering practices that results in increased forecast accuracy. In our third study, we focus on using historical product adoption patterns for developing good pre-launch forecasts for new product introductions. Through a normalization approach and algebraic estimation procedures that use intuitive parameters, our models provide opportunities to significantly improve pre-launch forecast accuracy. Finally, in our fourth study, we develop novel approaches for modeling and mitigating the impact of demand seasonality in new product diffusion context. Focusing mainly on practical applications, our research shows that companies can find innovative ways for turning raw data into valuable insights leading to better demand management activities.

Innovation incentives are imperfectly provided in market settings: When deciding on their innovation activity, firms tend to focus on the maximization of their private benefits, poorly internalizing social benefits. This thesis analyzes how policy intervention could be designed in order to align private and social incentives. <p><p>In the three papers of this thesis, I will consider three environments where firms' choices in a laissez-faire situation may be socially inefficient. The inefficiencies arise because of learning externalities, free riding when the innovation decision is made by a group of participants, or because firms are not willing to invest in a new activity that has a higher social than private value.<p><p>In the first thesis paper, I deal with the strategies of firms in innovative consumer product markets characterized by demand uncertainty. I analyze the timing and location decision of firms in that context.<p><p>In the second thesis paper, I consider the investment incentives of financial market infrastructures (FMIs). FMIs comprise the set of institutions that allow financial market participants to engage with each other. I assess the innovation incentives for different forms of ownership (user-owned versus third-party owned) and identify infrastructure service provision equilibria. <p><p>In the third thesis paper, I address the question of how a government should allocate a subsidy budget over time in order to maximize the innovation activity in an industry. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished