Aims and objectives Substance misuse is a chronic relapsing condition associated with high morbidity and mortality. Treatment attempts to reduce harms associated with drug use and to promote recovery and has developed considerably in the last 30 years. Opioid substitution therapy using methadone (OST-M) is an effective treatment for opioid dependency. Though the effectiveness of OST-M in delivering harm-reduction is well evidenced, evidence demonstrating recovery is limited as is understanding of those factors influencing progress. In this context, national policy makers and stakeholders have repeatedly questioned the value of OST-M as a substance misuse treatment and, at times, have sought to limit its use. Rigorous, long term outcome studies of UK subjects are required to improve clinical outcomes in OST-M subjects and to ensure ongoing availability of evidence-based treatments. In this context, the study had two main objectives: to demonstrate that standard clinical information systems can deliver rich, valid datasets to support outcome research; to use these data to explore the relationships between a selection of baseline variables (patient characteristics, comorbid conditions, the nature of substance misuse and the treatment received), the clinical process and long term outcomes achieved in a large cohort of OST-M patients in a standard NHS treatment setting. Methods and materials Standard clinical information, collected over 7 years, was linked with validated data from a range of databases. A large representative sample (76% of the OST-M treatment population in a region) was described in detail. Follow-up data were retrieved from clinical casenotes (4 years) and linked datasets (4-7 years) and collated to create a database for analysis. Variables for analysis were selected following a review of the published literature. Univariate analyses were undertaken to demonstrate statistically significant associations between baseline and follow-up variables. Significant variables were then entered into multiple regression analyses to develop predictive models for selected outcomes. Any predictive models were then subjected to cross-validation to determine their predictive power in novel datasets. Key results Many highly significant associations were shown. Significant personal (demographic) factors included: age, gender, having children, having conflict in personal relationships, educational level achieved and being in employment. It was notable that the area lived in (of three districts) was strongly associated with a wide variation in clinical process and outcomes achieved. Whether treated in primary care or specialist services, the medical treatments received, the level of non-NHS support and patient satisfaction showed strong associations with outcome. Baseline illicit drug use was also strongly associated with outcome. Multiple regression analyses found that despite these highly significant associations, strong predictive models of long terms outcome could not be demonstrated. Where weak models were created - predicting drug use (by self - report); drug use (positive tests); family stability - cross validation showed these had no predictive value in novel datasets. Conclusions Standard clinical information, linked with relevant NHS datasets can give rich and comprehensive data suitable for research of large representative samples over long time periods. This study represents one of the largest OST-M populations ever described in the UK with longer follow-up periods than most of the published literature. In this study strong associations were found between a range of independent and dependent variables over 4-7 years. These findings broadly reflected the evidence base. However, the associated variables could not generate strong useful predictive models of long term outcome. This could reflect issues of study design or data quality. This type of approach should be further developed in the field of substance misuse research. Issues of data quality would require to be addressed to maximize the value of these datasets. Further research is required to develop better understanding into key factors influencing long term outcomes of treatment in substance misuse.

This paper investigates the relationship between tourism and well being, or quality-of-life, within eighteen counties in Utah. To evaluate the relationship, comparisons of the counties' differing l evel s of tourism versus their levels of welfare are necessary. To make these comparisons, three basic steps were followed. First, a social ordering model was derived. The proposed social ordering model was based upon Maslow's theory of the hierarchy of human needs. By utilizing his theory, both economic and noneconomic indicators were identified, and a basis was provided upon which to judge the differing positions of well-being. Factor analysis was applied to this model in order to aggregate the indicators and derive a single quality-of-life index. Second, measurement of tourism was developed. A direct measurement of the level of tourist activity was not available. An indirect indicator of tourism was estimated by taking the proportion of total gross taxable revenue earned by eating and drinking establishments and taxable room sales. The derived indirect variable was more reflective of comparative tourism dependency levels than of the actual level of tourism. Therefore, the variable was renamed touri sm dependency. Third, the correlation between quality-of-life and tourism dependency was calculated. A Pearson correlation coefficient test was performed from which initial results sugge sted a potentially strong negative relationship between the particular qualifiers of well-being used here and tourism. It was apparent that thE two variables that could be defined by certain available indicators were not perfect measurements of the proposed variables, but aspects or components of the desired variables . Each reflected certain attributes of the proposed variables, but not the total concept. A possible explanation for the strong inverse relationship between the qualifiers of quality of life and tourism in this study may be each county's potential for economic diversification. Other studies have shown that areas that are dependent upon a single resource may experience higher levels of economic, demographic, and social instability as compared to those areas with a more diverse economic base. These factors, which in this model would lead to lower values for the calculated quality -of- life indicator in those counties, were estimated to be more tourist dependent .

The expected yield to maturity on a defaultable obligation equals the nominal yield less expected default losses. However, in a mark-to-market world, one doesn't have the luxury of reporting one's performance on the basis of yield to maturity. Total return is calculated for an arbitrary holding period, and must reflect any mark-to-market gains or losses as at the close of the period-gains or losses that can be triggered by the bond's upgrade or downgrade. Thus to estimate expected total return, one must estimate not only expected default losses, but also the impact on capital price of expected ratings transitions. This paper begins with the observation that a bond which is blessed by more favourable transition characteristics is likely to produce a higher total return, and poses the question of how that benefit can be quantified. How much is it worth? To answer the question, I start by specifying a formal bond-pricing model reflective of ratings transitions. I survey various statistical methods and past research efforts to identify the ratings-transition matrix which best parametrises the model, and propose a novel test for selecting between competing matrices. Using this approach, I replicate several important studies of ratings transitions. I also use it to examine new published and unpublished data, testing for (and finding) ratings path-dependency, and otherwise exploring the effect of ratings changes on different bond sectors. I then turn to the question of whether it is possible to estimate bond-specific transition probabilities, and propose a way to do so. I combine these efforts into the specifications for a pricing model capable of answering the question: How much is it worth?

Motivated by the need to provide users with more control and influence over their elearning activities composition yet maintain educational integrity, the pedagogical dependency-based approach for the workflow-enabled elearning system is the core of this dissertation. A solution for keeping workflow as a backbone system for delivery and managing elearning activities and still be able to provide flexible personalized composition has been proposed. The solution is based on separating the personalized composition aspect from the workflow-enabled elearning system. In other words, the AFlex-eL is proposed as a hybrid system where a separate generic component handling the personalized composition is integrated to Flex-eL, a workflow-enabled elearning system. The approach is based on the pedagogical dependencies, which are the constraints that govern how the learning activities should be logical sequenced, and how these activities should be selected and logically sequenced to compose elearning activities. A key feature and strength of the approach is to use the power of pedagogical dependencies to ensure educational integrity is preserved, while still being able to provide flexible learning for each individual. Also addressed are a number of related aspects of the framework including pedagogical dependencies modelling, specification, validation, flexible elearning activities composition, and deployment strategies.

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This paper presents an analysis of the linkage between Hungary¡¦s and its neighbouring country, Slovakia¡¦s special kind of political-, and economic relations over the past two decades. The author searches for an answer to the question what fundamental factors, internal and international, determine the long-term growth of the two countries¡¦ bilateral trade and the often tensed bilateral interstate relation as well as how the latter influences economic development in the common cross-border areas. Applying the models of mathematical economics, the author carried out an econometric investigation to prove her hypothesis on the bilateral political relation affects bilateral trade.

The purpose of this study is to describe and examine the attitudes of coffee cooperative members towards the ownership of the SPREAD cooperatives in relation to cooperative sustainability. In addition this study identifies barriers faced by member farmers and subsequently provides recommendations on ways in which SPREAD can help its member farmers achieve a more sustainable livelihood. Previous analysis of the SPREAD project and its member cooperatives has suggested that coffee cooperative members do not feel ownership of the cooperative and have not benefited from the cooperatives, leaving the sustainability of the cooperatives to question. The research questions used for this study focused on issues of sustainability, ownership and organizational impact and barriers. All of the cooperatives studied over the course of this project receive funds from the USAID funded project SPREAD. The population of interest comprised members from three of the fourteen cooperatives receiving aid from the SPREAD project. A sample of 52 individuals participated in the study, with the data being collected from mid-July to mid-August, 2009. Quantitative data were collected using a close-ended category-scale questionnaire. The close-ended category-scale questionnaires were analyzed based on the frequency and percentage of responses. Major findings of this study included that coffee cooperative members felt that in the absence of SPREAD, the coffee cooperatives would be unable to function. In regards to ownership, members felt as if they owned the cooperatives. The disparity between these two constructs shows that once SPREAD no longer supports the cooperatives, then sustainability is to question and further they are more susceptible to collapse.

The thesis is want to see ¡]dual economy¡^phenomenon in the process of economic development ¡Cdiscuss about (the disparity between the rich and the poor). in the traditions and the modern both competitiveness¡Cobserved on (dependency Theory) below .in the interior provinces are general self-doubt phenomenon and display light development¡CThe huge unbalanced economic development difference will cause not only economic crsis but also political crisis resulting from people's dissatisfaction on the decline of living standard¡C In this thesis to make a study of goals¡CFirst of all ,from true affairs statistical data above detailed to study and analysis¡CIt's helpful to me probe into institutional changes of China and to explain differences of economic development and structure between regions¡CFinally, I'm try to from make a study of economic development look into discover and suggest¡Ccan to provide our's government to draft Mainland China strategy in accordance with important to consult. This thesis can to provide Taiwan investment the development strategy and location factors suggest in China's guidebook.

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