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The expected yield to maturity on a defaultable obligation equals the nominal yield less expected default losses. However, in a mark-to-market world, one doesn't have the luxury of reporting one's performance on the basis of yield to maturity. Total return is calculated for an arbitrary holding period, and must reflect any mark-to-market gains or losses as at the close of the period-gains or losses that can be triggered by the bond's upgrade or downgrade. Thus to estimate expected total return, one must estimate not only expected default losses, but also the impact on capital price of expected ratings transitions. This paper begins with the observation that a bond which is blessed by more favourable transition characteristics is likely to produce a higher total return, and poses the question of how that benefit can be quantified. How much is it worth? To answer the question, I start by specifying a formal bond-pricing model reflective of ratings transitions. I survey various statistical methods and past research efforts to identify the ratings-transition matrix which best parametrises the model, and propose a novel test for selecting between competing matrices. Using this approach, I replicate several important studies of ratings transitions. I also use it to examine new published and unpublished data, testing for (and finding) ratings path-dependency, and otherwise exploring the effect of ratings changes on different bond sectors. I then turn to the question of whether it is possible to estimate bond-specific transition probabilities, and propose a way to do so. I combine these efforts into the specifications for a pricing model capable of answering the question: How much is it worth?

The purpose of this study is to describe and examine the attitudes of coffee cooperative members towards the ownership of the SPREAD cooperatives in relation to cooperative sustainability. In addition this study identifies barriers faced by member farmers and subsequently provides recommendations on ways in which SPREAD can help its member farmers achieve a more sustainable livelihood. Previous analysis of the SPREAD project and its member cooperatives has suggested that coffee cooperative members do not feel ownership of the cooperative and have not benefited from the cooperatives, leaving the sustainability of the cooperatives to question. The research questions used for this study focused on issues of sustainability, ownership and organizational impact and barriers. All of the cooperatives studied over the course of this project receive funds from the USAID funded project SPREAD. The population of interest comprised members from three of the fourteen cooperatives receiving aid from the SPREAD project. A sample of 52 individuals participated in the study, with the data being collected from mid-July to mid-August, 2009. Quantitative data were collected using a close-ended category-scale questionnaire. The close-ended category-scale questionnaires were analyzed based on the frequency and percentage of responses. Major findings of this study included that coffee cooperative members felt that in the absence of SPREAD, the coffee cooperatives would be unable to function. In regards to ownership, members felt as if they owned the cooperatives. The disparity between these two constructs shows that once SPREAD no longer supports the cooperatives, then sustainability is to question and further they are more susceptible to collapse.

The expected yield to maturity on a defaultable obligation equals the nominal yield less expected default losses. However, in a mark-to-market world, one doesn't have the luxury of reporting one's performance on the basis of yield to maturity. Total return is calculated for an arbitrary holding period, and must reflect any mark-to-market gains or losses as at the close of the period-gains or losses that can be triggered by the bond's upgrade or downgrade. Thus to estimate expected total return, one must estimate not only expected default losses, but also the impact on capital price of expected ratings transitions. This paper begins with the observation that a bond which is blessed by more favourable transition characteristics is likely to produce a higher total return, and poses the question of how that benefit can be quantified. How much is it worth? To answer the question, I start by specifying a formal bond-pricing model reflective of ratings transitions. I survey various statistical methods and past research efforts to identify the ratings-transition matrix which best parametrises the model, and propose a novel test for selecting between competing matrices. Using this approach, I replicate several important studies of ratings transitions. I also use it to examine new published and unpublished data, testing for (and finding) ratings path-dependency, and otherwise exploring the effect of ratings changes on different bond sectors. I then turn to the question of whether it is possible to estimate bond-specific transition probabilities, and propose a way to do so. I combine these efforts into the specifications for a pricing model capable of answering the question: How much is it worth?

There is a tendency in the international literature to generalise about developments and reforms in public administration across groups or types of country, often across those in close geographical proximity. Since the revolutions across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the late 1980s, this tendency is revealed by various labels: ‘transitory states’, ‘post-communist states’, ‘post-socialist states’, which suggests that they all possess similar characteristics, and thus have similar administrative systems. Furthermore, many of these states are now members of the European Union (EU). However, the CEE countries are on differing reform trajectories; they have not all arrived at the same stage at the same time (some await EU membership; chiefly those in South East Europe). This thesis concentrates on Romania to provide a detailed analysis of its public administration trajectory and contends that is too simplistic to regard Romania as ‘similar’ to its CEE neighbours. Moreover, there is no definitive account of the development of public administration in the country, and this is one contribution that this thesis makes. The thesis engages with institutional theory; both historical and sociological, to provide a framework for analysing the present state of public administration in Romania, characterised as an ‘unprofessional bureaucracy’. The thesis employs the concept of path dependency from the institutionalist framework to explain the lack of change in Romania despite apparently ‘path breaking’ events such as the revolution of 1989 and accession to the EU. The empirical research at the heart of the thesis is based on interviews with members of the bureaucratic and political elites of Romania. The resulting commentary also provides a further important contribution for the thesis as this is the first instance of academic research on public administration in Romania that harnesses such information. By definition, elite interviews are difficult to attain, especially within the political context of Romania. By using institutionalist theory, the thesis clearly explains the current state of public administration in the country, which is far removed from the idealised and internationalised approaches to administrative change typified by reform movements such as New Public Management and Governance.

Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) have been a staple energy policy in the state of Colorado since 2004. While there has been a steady increase to the RPS percentages over the years, there have been several points where this policy has been significantly contested. This paper explores the political decision making of the two largest electricity producers in the state, Xcel Energy and Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, to determine at what points that the costs of legislation exceeded the costs of opposition for those two organizations. Using this information, the paper explores the implications these political battles have on characterizing Colorado as a state with renewable path dependency and renewable policy feedback. / Master of Arts / Since 2004, Colorado has enacted several successful laws to increase renewable energy use within the state. However, in recent years these laws have failed to achieve their goals. By analyzing the two largest producers of electricity in the state, Xcel Energy and Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, this paper tries to answer what parts of the policies were too costly for the organizations to accept. Using this information, this project concludes that the current renewable energy policies are unlikely to be repealed in the future, but there is some evidence to suggest that the rate of renewable energy policy enactment may decrease.

As competitively tendering for work is becoming increasingly difficult, and with profit margins reducing, UK construction companies are looking to differentiate their offering to clients. Safely delivering on time, within budget and to the required quality standard is no longer a differentiator in a market where clients are demanding increased value, building information modelling and life cycle provision. Construction companies are therefore looking to extend their activities into business consulting, financing and operational services, which will provide new sources of revenue in addition to their core production activities. This holistic service should provide solutions that meet their client s business needs, not just their building needs, ultimately resulting in long-standing relationships that over time yield a more predictable, long-term return. Over half of the top 20 UK construction companies, by turnover, have stated their intent to provide solutions to their clients - the case study organisation in which this research has been carried out is one of those companies. Part of a group of companies, the case study company, Shepherd Construction Ltd (SCL), has a vision to deliver integrated solutions to their clients, with the ultimate aim being that companies across the group can pool their expertise and deliver a service offering unique to the industry. Existing literature states the characteristics that integrated solutions providers need to possess, and proposes models for how an organisation needs to structure itself to deliver a service. However, the applicability of these models to SCL was unknown, and along with current literature on how to enact the transition pathway being vague, highlighted an area for investigation. Since the aim of integrated solutions provision is the delivery of a service to the client that adds value, it was proposed that lean thinking could provide a means of enacting the P-S transition: the starting point for lean thinking is value (Womack & Jones, 2003). Lean thinking principles (Womack & Jones, 2003) state that value needs to flow through the value stream the series of actions that transform inputs into the completed output raising the further proposition that flow is required through the stages of the integrated solutions lifecycle (the value stream) in order to successfully deliver all aspects of the client s value proposition, i.e. the desired solution. As a long established main-contractor, or product provider, SCL s challenge to transition from products-to-services was set against a backdrop of inconsistent performance and loss of continuity of service at crucial pinch-points in the delivery process. The action research carried out therefore sought to understand these problems and develop practices based on lean thinking that could be implemented in the company to enable consistent delivery of integrated solutions, i.e. enable the products-to-service transition, and in doing so provide the basis for the wider group vision. An abductive approach was taken to the research strategy; the experiences of the participants involved in the changes prompted by the action research process were used to inform the development of new theories and practices, and evaluate them once implemented. The methods used for collecting data and accounting for the experiences of people in the company included observation, both participant and non-participant, semi-structured interviews and analysis of company records. The research findings show that lean thinking has a role to play in enabling an organisation to transition from the provision of products to services. Standard processes and tools, based on lean thinking and developed through the action research framework, are shown to be the basis for consistent and repeatable performance within the phases of the integrated solutions lifecycle. Flow of information through and between phases of the lifecycle is then shown to be essential to ensuring the client s value proposition is realised and information is not lost during the transitions between lifecycle phases. The operational framework for service delivery , one of the practices developed, itself a form of standardised work, draws on lean thinking to provide a structured, yet flexible, means of developing a plan for service delivery that is focused on the client and ensuring the client s definition of value flows through the integrated solutions value stream and is therefore continually understood, and ultimately delivered, by the whole team as the project progresses. The practices developed through the research the standard company management system, operational framework for service delivery , service delivery plan and maturity assessment are shown to have improved consistency and company performance, and to have contributed to improved customer satisfaction (the ultimate aim of delivering a service) such that the company is starting to be perceived in the marketplace as an integrated solutions provider. This research also contributes to existing theory by evidencing that the transition pathway from products-to-services isn t as smooth as current literature portrays. In trying to implement current models in a construction setting, the products-to-service transition has been problematised and deficiencies in existing characteristics and models identified. Along with showing that lean thinking provides a theoretical framework for enacting the products-to-service transition, the hybrid model of the integrated solutions lifecycle developed, along with the maturity assessment, provide new theoretical insights, such as the need for feedback loops between all phases of the lifecycle.

In November 2013, the Islamic Republic of Iran reached an interim agreement with six world powers, including the United States. After the agreement was implemented in January 2014, Iran froze uranium enrichment in exchange for limited sanctions relief from the United States. This was the first diplomatic exchange between the United States and Iran in over thirty years. Keeping Iran from the Bomb analyzes how each country’s respective domestic politics and stereotypes of the other have, until recently, impeded diplomacy between the two nations. This study examines American-Iranian relations during the hostage crisis, the Bush administration, and the Obama administration to do the following: analyze what has prevented diplomacy in the past, explain the circumstances that made the interim agreement possible, and show what factors threaten this diplomatic progress. The primary argument of this thesis is that the leaders of both the United States and Iran are encouraged, and often rewarded, by various entities to demonize the other nation. If the leaders of the United States and Iran can convince their domestic constituents that continued cooperation with the other country will be beneficial, diplomacy can move forward.

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Through the historic usage of fossil fuel, climate impacts have been severe and threaten to disrupt global economies and biological diversity. Hydrogen has emerged as a technology which can enable the productionand storage of renewable energy with no carbon emissions. However, energy transitions are complex as the sector is characterized by lock-in and path dependency due to co-evolution with infrastructure, policy and geography. The purpose of this study is to explore how hydrogen energy can overcome the lock-in and path dependency of fossil fuels. To achieve this, a qualitative single-case study of Sweden was conducted. The theoretical foundation consists of the Multi-Level Perspective and lock-in. The results indicate that in order for hydrogen technology to become large-scale and overcome lock-in, four criteria need to be fulfilled; hydrogen technology needs to be more cost-efficient, investments in infrastructure for hydrogen is required, a market needs to be established for the production of hydrogen and governments/institutions need to support hydrogen through regulation and investments. / Under decennier av fossil användning har klimatpåverkan blivit mer allvarlig och hotar att negativt påverka globala ekonomier och den biologiska mångfalden. Vätgas har framkommit som en teknik som möjliggör produktion och lagring av förnybar energi utan koldioxidutsläpp. Övergångar till nya energilösningar är dock svåra eftersom sektorn kännetecknas av “lock-in” och “path dependency”på grund av samutveckling med infrastruktur, politik och geografi. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur vätgas kan övervinna “lock-in” och “path dependency” av fossila bränslen. För att uppnå detta genomfördes en kvalitativ fallstudie av Sverige. Den teoretiska grunden för studien består av Multi-Level Perspective och lock-in. Resultaten visar att fyra kriterier måste uppfyllas för att vätgas ska gå från en nisch innovation till att vara en del av dagens sociotekniska system. Vätgas måste bli mer kostnadseffektiv, investeringar i infrastruktur för vätgas krävs, en marknad måste skapas för produktion av vätgas och regeringar/institutioner behöver stödja vätgas genom föreskrifter.