Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Defense Decision-Making And Planning))--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2010. / Thesis Advisor(s): Russell, James. ; Moran, Daniel. "March 2010." Description based on title screen as viewed on April 30, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Deterrence (Strategy); Conventional Deterrence (Strategy); Deterrence-Psychology; Falkland Islands War, 1982; Great Britain; Argentina; Defense Policy Includes bibliographical references (p. 109-112). Also available in print.

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Information security has become a major challenge for all private and public organizations. The protection of proprietary and secret data and the proper awareness of what is entailed in protecting this data are necessary in all organizations. This treatise examines how simulation and training would influence information security awareness over time in virtual communities of practice under a variety of security threats. The hypothesis of the study was that security-trained members of a virtual community of practice would respond significantly better to routine security processes and attempts to breach security or to violate the security policy of their organization or of their virtual community of practice. Deterrence theory was used as the grounded theory and integrated in the information security awareness training with simulated scenarios. The study provided training with simulated scenarios and then tested the users of a virtual community of practice over an approximately twelve-week period to see if the planned security awareness training with simulated security problem scenarios would be effective in improving their responses to the follow-up tests. The research subjects were divided into four groups, the experimental group and three control groups. The experimental group received all of the training and testing events throughout the twelve-week period. The three control groups received various portions of the training and testing. The data from all of the tests were analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis iv ranked order test, and it was determined that there was no significant difference between the groups at the end of the data collection. Even though the null hypothesis, which stated that there would be no difference between the groups scores on the information security awareness tests, was not rejected, the groups that received the initial training with the simulated scenarios did perform slightly better from the pre-training test to the post-training test when compared with the control group that did not receive the initial training. More research is suggested to determine how information security awareness training with simulated scenarios and follow-up testing can be used to improve and sustain the security practices of members of virtual communities of practice. Specifically, additional research could include: comparing the effect of training with the simulated scenarios and with training that would not use the simulated security scenarios; the potential benefits of using adaptive and intelligent training to focus on the individual subjects’ weaknesses and strengths; the length of the training with simulated scenarios events, the time between each training event, and the overall length of the training; the demographics of the groups used in the training, and how different user characteristics impact the efficacy of the training with simulated scenarios and testing; and lastly examining how increasing the fidelity of the simulated scenarios might impact the results of the follow-up tests.

Survivability and reliability have become important factors in the design of a mission effective Strategic Defense System (SDS) that protects the United States against a ballistic missile attack by the Soviet Union. The SDS must be reliable and responsive in providing this defense. It must also be survivable to counter the Soviet tactics of negating the defense. To ensure an effective, responsive and affordable system, survivability and reliability features must be incorporated in the earliest phases of conceptual design and must be maintained throughout the SDS life cycle. The Engagement Timeline Analysis (ETA) model provides a tool for exploring survivability, reliability and other design trade-offs in the conceptual and preliminary design phases of the system engineering process. This paper presents a unique methodology for the derivation of system survivability and reliability requirements in an SDS design. Evaluations are at the engineering estimate level and are structured to allow sensitivity analyses of pertinent constellation design parameters and operational characteristics. / Master of Science

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The role of airpower in the Persian Gulf security framework is approaching an important crossroads as old missions end, strategic assumptions change, and uncertain requirements emerge. Future requirements will be defined in a strategic environment where regional threats, relevant actors,and U.S. interests have all evolved. For over a decade, airpower has contributed important capabilities to persistent missions to coerce and contain Iraq, but with these missions ending new posture requirements must be defined. The effects based methodology framework presented here provides a useful system level model for thinking in terms of optimizing effects as strategy is operationalized. Airpower will continue to support U.S. interests to preserve stable oil flows, diminish terrorism, promote regional stability, and deter weapons of mass destruction proliferation from a new global posture construct emphasizing agile, expeditionary forces. Extremist sub-state actors, Iranian nuclear ambitions, and uncertain political, economic and social trends increasingly challenge these interests. The regional military strategy for U.S. Central Command focuses on three broad goals of warfighting, engagement, and development. Airpower's precision, global reach and strike, and network centric advances offer decision-makers useful capabilities to support these making continued access to regional basing a strategic imperative.

Thesis (M.A. in International Security and Civil-Military Relations)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2003. / Thesis advisor(s): Maria José Rasmussen, Robert E. Looney. Includes bibliographical references. Also available online.

The following study develops a structured focused comparison of two South American territorial crises: the Beagle Channel Crisis between Argentina and Chile (1977--1978) and the Cenepa Crisis between Ecuador and Peru (1994--1995). From a conventional perspective, the Beagle Channel Crisis should have escalated to war because it was a fully militarized inter-state crisis carried out by a military dyad. In contrast, the Cenepa Crisis should not have ended in war because it was a democratic dyad and the dissatisfied state was the weaker power. Yet the opposite happened in both cases: in the Beagle Channel Crisis the escalation process was contained, whereas in the Cenepa Crisis the situation escalated into an intensive war. / Based on a comparison of these two dyads, this study argues that deterrence strategy alone is not sufficient to prevent war. Only an interaction of deterrence strategy and third party involvement can contain an escalatory process, constituting a tool for strengthening deterrence.

One of the most critical tasks facing the world in the post-cold war era is to eliminate nuclear proliferation. With the recent nuclear tests by India and Pakistan, the subject of nuclear proliferation has returned to the forefront of international politics. Taking issue with the complacent belief that only a few states unnecessarily jeopardize international peace by acquiring nuclear weapons, I argue that many states in territorial protracted conflict are generally proliferants because of their specific security concerns. Demonstrating how individual and domestic level motivations are not the key determinants of the nuclear choices of the South Asian and Middle Eastern states, I emphasize the role of systemic level motivation, particularly security, in their nuclear decisions. Through a close examination of these states' nuclear weapons choices, I develop a new appraisal of the territorial protracted conflict states' potential to proliferate. While high war-probability has provoked virtually all of these protracted conflict states to seek nuclear deterrent capability and become proliferants, the variations in the type of conflict, regional power structure and geographical proximity have brought about variations in the pace of proliferation among these states. Finally, I expand the implications of this study for IR theory, especially with regard to Realist theory, nuclear deterrence, post-cold war world order, and nuclear arms control treaties. I conclude that the resolution of the roots of regional conflicts will most effectively ensure that more states do not embark on a nuclear weapons program. It is, however, naive to expect the new nuclear states to roll back their weapons programs.

Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, Sept. 2004. / Thesis advisor(s): Jeffrey W. Knopf. Includes bibliographical references (p. 101-107). Also available online.