A frequente ocorrência de desastres naturais gera impactos sociais e econômicos cada vez maiores, impondo a necessidade de elaborar estratégias de prevenção e redução de riscos. No cenário nacional, os desastres causados por eventos hidrológicos representam a maior parte das ocorrências. Acidentes de maior exposição e maiores consequências são os ocasionados por movimentos gravitacionais de massa. Assim, as iniciativas de prevenção de desastres necessariamente passam pelo detalhamento do conhecimento do problema, o que deve orientar o estabelecimento de metas de ações de redução de risco, instrumentos de gestão e resposta, e ainda para sistemas de monitoramento e alerta. Estes sistemas necessariamente devem contar com mapeamentos dos locais de risco, rede de coleta de dados meteorológicos que subsidiem previsões de eventos hidrológicos, e o estabelecimento dos limiares críticos de chuva deflagradores de escorregamentos. Com tais objetivos, órgãos governamentais promoveram esforços no mapeamento dos riscos, em escalas adequadas, e o investimento na estruturação de redes de monitoramento hidrometeorológico, sendo necessárias iniciativas de elaboração de limiares críticos regionalizados a serem amplamente desenvolvidas. Dentro do cenário da gestão de riscos descritos, este trabalho teve como principal objetivo a determinação de limiares críticos de chuva deflagradores de movimentos gravitacionais de massa no município de São Bernardo do Campo. Baseando-se na avaliação dos dados de série histórica de pluviometria, e de um banco de dados formado a partir das ocorrências de escorregamentos atendidas no município, compreendendo 415 escorregamentos ao longo de 24 anos (1993 a 2016). Os resultados da correlação dos dados do meio físico, da pluviometria e das ocorrências de escorregamentos, permitiram uma série de análises da distribuição das ocorrências. A distribuição foi feita ao longo do tempo, em função de acumulados de chuva e em função dos aspectos do meio físico. Foram feitas também correlações da intensidade das chuvas em função da espacialização e acumulados de chuva. As correlações espaciais dos dados permitiram o estabelecimento de uma ferramenta que relaciona as caracterizações do meio físico com as ocorrências de escorregamentos, que foi denominado como Coeficiente de Ocorrências por Área (COPA). Este coeficiente indicou os elementos do meio físico de maior influência na deflagração de movimentos de massa na área de estudo, em ordem de prioridade os destaques foram: 1) muito alta densidade de ocupação; 2) padrões e morfologias de relevo de morros altos e morros baixos; 3) alta densidade de ocupação; 4) unidade geológica do Micaxisto; e 5) terrenos com inclinação superior a 25°. Destaca-se que o trabalho contribuiu para o conhecimento da resposta dos elementos de frente a processos hidrometeorológicos e para a definição de limiares críticos de chuva deflagradora de escorregamentos, determinando uma equação numérica de previsão de ocorrências a partir dos dados pluviométricos e de previsões meteorológicas. Estes resultados também puderam contribuir no estabelecimento de parâmetros técnico-científicos para refinar a gestão do risco de movimentos de massa em São Bernardo do Campo-SP, e das relações desses eventos com o meio físico para estabelecimento de estudos em outras localidades. / The frequent occurrence of landslides in Brazil has been the cause of larger issues, economically and socially, which explains the necessity to elaborate preventing strategies in order to reduce such risks to the population. Looking at the Brazilian panorama, the disasters caused by hydrological events represent the greater part of these occurrences. Mass gravitational movements cause accidents of a bigger exposure and have greater consequences. Thus, the prevention strategies must go through a detailed study, in order to gather knowledge to better understand the problem as a whole; this information must orientate the establishment of targets for risk reduction actions, management and response instruments, as well as the monitoring and alert systems. These systems must have risk mapping and meteorological data collection networks, in order to predict hydrological events and establish critical limits to landslides caused by rainfall. With these bjectives, government agencies have promoted efforts to map these areas in adequate scales, as well as investing and structuring hydrometereological monitoring networks, requiring initiatives to elaborate regionalized critical groundsels to be extensively developed. Within the scenario of risk management described, this study has the objective to determine critical thresholds triggered by rainfall of mass gravitational movements at the municipality of Sao Bernardo do Campo. Based on the evaluation of the historical data of rainfall, and database gathered from the occurrences of landslides that took place in the same municipality as well as, comprising 415 landslides that have happened for over 24 years (from 1993 to 2016). The correlated results in the physical environment data on occurrences of landslides caused by rainfall, started a series of analyzes on the distribution of these occurrences. This distribution was made throughout the described timeline, due to accumulated rain damage and other environmental aspects. Correlations on the rainfall intensity were also made due to the spacing of the damaged land. This spacing correlated data allowed the establishment of a tool that relates the characterizations of the environment with the gathered data on landslides, which was named as the Coefficient of Occurrences per Area (COPA). This coefficient indicates the physical environment elements, and had the greatest influence on the deflagration of mass movements at the studied area. In priority order, the emphasized topics were: 1) very high density of land occupation; 2) landforms high hills and low hills; 3) high density of land occupation; 4) geological unity of Mica Schist; and 5) terrains with an inclination higher than 25°. This study contributes to the knowledge on how the physical environment elements reacts ahead of hydrometeorological processes and to the definition of critical limits of rainfall that triggers landslides. Also, it has determined a numerical equation to landslides prediction from rainfall data and meteorological forecast. All these results could also contribute to the establishment of technical-scientific parameters, refining mass movement risk management at the city of São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo State, and the relationship between these events to the physical environment for the establishment of future studies in other cities.

Global policies in disaster management have radically changed since 1990s, shifting the previously entrenched emphasis on emergency management, towards new applications of risk management. A series of international declarations expressed the determination and principles to reduce risks at every level, which were followed by many national governments. The disaster management system in Turkey seems to tend towards this approach, not necessarily based on an awareness of the global trends, but due to the severe impacts of the 1999 events. Since no understanding and political commitment for disaster mitigation prevails in Turkey, risk mitigation planning at every level is yet far from being effective. This claim constitutes the basic working hypothesis of the study. Verification of the hypothesis is based on a comparative analysis of the organizational structures of the selected countries, and a survey of recent local performance. The framework developed by the Kobe Conference is employed in both analyses. The former analysis indicated that despite the new institutional developments like &lsquo / construction supervision&rsquo / and &lsquo / obligatory insurance&rsquo / , Turkey in its disaster policy is still far from a comprehensive mitigation approach in terms of the Kobe criteria. Although the laws of local administrations now contain new tasks of city-level disaster management, not only confusions between pre-disaster and post-disaster responsibilities prevail, but no operational guidance is given for the fulfillment these responsibilities. A whole range of activities are therefore in need of being streamlined into the tasks of urban planning in the reduction of disaster risks. With the amendment of laws, modification of the professional practice and the training of planners are expected.

Disasters (e.g. earthquakes) and emergencies (e.g. fire) threaten the safety of occupants in the buildings and cause injuries and mortalities. These harmful effects are even more dangerous when secondary hazards (e.g. post-earthquake fires) emerge and it is commonly observed that the disasters/emergencies trigger secondary hazards.An effective indoor emergency guidance and navigation approach for occupants and first responders can decrease the number of injuries and mortalities during building emergencies by improving the evacuation process and response operations. For this reason, this research will propose a model-based guidance and vulnerability assessment approach for facilities that are under the threat of multi-hazard emergencies. The approach can be used to guide occupants from the facility affected by disasters/emergencies to safer zones and to direct the first responders by supplying them necessary building related information such as identified vulnerable locations in the indoor environments. An integrated utilization of Building Information Modeling tools, sensors, shortest path algorithms, and vulnerability assessment algorithms is proposed for the system in this research. The research steps of this thesis include (1) determination of requirements of an indoor navigation during emergency response and disaster management,(2) review, comparison, and evaluation of shortest path algorithms from an emergency response and disaster management point of view, (3) proposing a vulnerability assessment approach, and (4) proposing a real-time indoor emergency guidance and navigation system framework for buildings under the threat of multi-hazard emergencies. The findings of the research can be used in future studies on emergency response and disaster management domains.

In this thesis, I enquire into how the USA – our world’s wealthiest and most powerful nation –  and its federal government has dealt with two of its most severe natural disasters: the drought and dust storms that plagued the Great Plains during the 1930’s, i.e. the Dust Bowl, and Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall in late August 2005.  I attempt to identify differences and similarities and analyze if and, in that case, how the hegemonic politico-economic paradigm affected the federal management of these crises. This comparison is made relevant by the fact that two differing paradigms were at play during these events. In the thirties, President Franklin D. Roosevelt launched his “New Deal”, a series of counter cyclical measures in line with the Keynesian school of economics, as a response to the overwhelming economic depression as well as the raging drought. In sharp contrast, Hurricane Katrina swept over a country ridden by decades of neoliberal governance. I show that political economy plays an important role in the success and/or failure of, in this case, the United States’ management of natural disasters. Finally, I argue for the return (or, rather, the creation) of an expanded and more socially and environmentally conscious public sector, which, in times of crisis, is able to represent all of its citizens – regardless of class or race.

This thesis addresses aspects of preparedness, by not-for-profit humanitarian relief organizations, for effectively responding to natural disasters. It asks how not-for-profit organizations, engaged in humanitarian supply chain management, develop capabilities and implement various elements of preparedness. The research methods consist of a combination of case-based research and grounded research in examining two very different organizations, one comparatively small and faith based and the other larger and secular. Data collection consisted of mostly open-ended interviews with representatives of the two organizations. The findings consist of a number of themes centred on the concept of a local focus on vulnerable communities. Associated themes include the importance of establishing a presence in the community, local capacity building, and early needs assessment. These themes are summarized as testable propositions. A summary framework is presented for the integration of international and local supply chains, in preparing to respond to natural disasters.

This thesis addresses aspects of preparedness, by not-for-profit humanitarian relief organizations, for effectively responding to natural disasters. It asks how not-for-profit organizations, engaged in humanitarian supply chain management, develop capabilities and implement various elements of preparedness. The research methods consist of a combination of case-based research and grounded research in examining two very different organizations, one comparatively small and faith based and the other larger and secular. Data collection consisted of mostly open-ended interviews with representatives of the two organizations. The findings consist of a number of themes centred on the concept of a local focus on vulnerable communities. Associated themes include the importance of establishing a presence in the community, local capacity building, and early needs assessment. These themes are summarized as testable propositions. A summary framework is presented for the integration of international and local supply chains, in preparing to respond to natural disasters.

Natural hazards are the reality of today&amp / #8217 / s world, which considerably affect people&amp / #8217 / s living conditions. As they cannot be prevented, the basic precautions should be taken before the occurrence to protect people. At this point, the preparedness for any threat is really important, which does decrease destructive effects of the hazard for communities and shorten recovery interventions. In terms of preparedness, identification of vulnerable people in the community gives an important contribution for better planning in disaster management. In this respect, this thesis aims to develop a methodology in order to define vulnerable groups in terms of their social conditions for any possible hazard, with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology. Moreover, the thesis aims to find out an interrelation between hazards and vulnerability, to build awareness about identification of socially vulnerable groups in the pre- and post-disaster planning. A case study area is selected in earthquake-prone Pendik, Istanbul, in order to find the contribution of the assessment. A study is carried out to describe social vulnerability levels in the study area using GIS. Criterion standardization, weighting and combining are accomplished by multi criteria evaluation methods. These calculations are supported with five explorative spatial data analyses to understand global trends and spatial interactions of the study data. The objectivity of the assessment and the complicated structure of the study data are also discussed. The main outcomes of the methodology and its applications in the case study area show that, the southeast part of Pendik is socially vulnerable to any possible hazard.

The 1999 earthquakes revealed serious gaps in the Turkish disaster management system. The lack of coordination and cooperation between governmental and non-governmental organizations, limits in the legal framework and the lack of policies and plans about disaster preparedness and mitigation are basic. It is highly relevant therefore to expose these deficiencies and find which changes are necessary for capacity building in civil initiatives and which policies can be put into practice to form a strong and a sustainable organizational structure between governmental organizations and civil initiatives. This required reconsidering the events of 1999 Marmara earthquakes and civil initiatives&rsquo / activities. The analyses have been made among civil initiatives to expose their objectives, their response to earthquakes and future plans. Futher, this required discussion of the current state of disaster management system and legal structure. Findings are that a number of creative activities of civil initiatives can be observed after the Marmara earthquakes. However, the existing level of collaboration with governmental organizations is inadequate, considering the magnitude of disasters taking place in Turkey and the degree of the people&rsquo / s vulnerability. Efforts such as new draft of law of Turgey Emergency Management General Directorate (TEMGD) seem to provide means to meet the requirements. This draft law could provide the tools to accommodate civil initiatives The law could be revised so as to maintain a legal basis for civil initiatives&rsquo / activities as part of disaster management system indicating that governmental organizations should work together in coordination with civil initiatives. Secondly, to encourage voluntary activities, a number of provisions should be available such as life insurance against accidents for the accredited volunteers. Thirdly, TEGMD should also act to find partners for supporting civil initiatives in their financial, personnel training and management needs. With increasing conviction in the need for participatory approaches and people-oriented developments, civil initiatives are committed to face challenges in mitigating and preparing for the variety of disasters facing Turkey.

Ce travail de recherche vise à développer une méthode pour l'analyse de la robustesse des plans de secours industriels. Des défaillances peuvent survenir lors de la mise en œuvre de ces plans, qui peuvent entrainer à un fonctionnement en mode dégradé des dispositifs. Les approches existantes d’analyse de ces plans ne permettent pas une analyse structurée du dispositif de gestion de crise. La méthodologie proposée dans le cadre de ce travail repose sur une formalisation structuro-fonctionnelle et générique des plans de secours industriels, décrivant à la fois les fonctions et les ressources permettant la réalisation de ces fonctions. De plus, ce travail s’est accompagné de retours d’expérience à partir de 159 rapports d’accidents et de 61 exercices POI/PPI, qui ont permis d’identifier des défaillances pouvant survenir lors de la mise en œuvre des POI/PPI. Le modèle développé et les informations obtenues par le retour d’expérience permettent de structurer l’analyse des dysfonctionnements pouvant se manifester lors de la mise en œuvre des plans. Cette analyse de la robustesse est basée sur une évaluation du risque de défaillance des fonctions du plan. La probabilité de défaillance est estimée à partir des questions d’évaluation et des arbres de défaillances des ressources et des fonctions. La gravité de la défaillance de chaque fonction est déterminée en utilisant les études de dangers de l’installation, en suivant la règle des dommages maximum qu’elle peut provoquer. La criticité de défaillance de chaque fonction est ainsi obtenue, et la criticité du plan résulte de l'agrégation des criticités de ses fonctions. Cette méthodologie constitue ainsi une boite à outils qui peut être utilisée à la fois pour l’évaluation des plans existants, mais aussi pour l’élaboration du dispositif défini dans un plan de secours industriel. / The objective of this research thesis is to develop a methodology for the analysis of robustness of industrial emergency plans. Failures can occur when these plans are put into action; they can result to deteriorated operating conditions for these systems. Existing emergency plan analysis approaches do not allow for a structured analysis of the emergency response mechanism. The methodology developed in this research project is based on a structuro-functional and generic formalization of industrial emergency plans, which describes both the functions of the plans and the resources necessary for accomplishing them. Furthermore, lessons learned through the analysis of 159 industrial accidents and 61 internal and external industrial emergency plan exercises have led to the identification of failures that may occur during the use of industrial emergency plans for emergency response. The model that was developed and the information obtained through experience feedback result in a structured analysis of failures of these plans. This robustness analysis is based on the failure risk assessment of the plan’s functions. The failure probability is estimated through assessment questions and the plan’s functions and resources fault trees. The failure severity of each function is determined by using the facility’s hazard study and by applying the maximum damage rule. The failure criticality of each function is hence obtained, and the plan’s criticality results from the aggregation of the criticalities of the plan’s functions. The approach followed is hence based on a failure risk analysis, which in turn is built upon lessons learned and the critical analysis of the plan’s model. This methodology therefore constitutes a toolbox that can be used both for the analysis of existing plans and the development of emergency response mechanism.

The overall aim of this thesis is to, through a case study of a local disaster organization, study the prerequisites for building functional Hastily Formed Networks in disasters and also how HFN:s can be linked to a proactive disaster organization.The study looks upon HFN:s from the organizational, cognitive aspects of communication – not the network/information technology – and focus on the issue of local empowerment. To set the theoretical framework the thesis makes use of Peter Senge's model on learning organization, Karl Weicks organizational and communication theory of microlevels in systems, commitment and enactment. The method is a case study with interviews and field observation of a proactive disaster organization in Indonesia, in the Sultanate of Yogyakarta on Java. The results shows that Yogyakarta is actively working with a model to take advantage of the experience from earlier catastrophes, spread the learnings to other, integrate community in the learning and trying to build local empowerment including a bottom-up approach. In the interviews topics raised as important to create a good collaboration in a HFN are: 1) Provide local leaders with professional support and coordination based on a common vision. 2) Establishing local empowerment and common visions. 3) Development of the organization and individuals. 4) The need for formal and informal structures and communication. 5) Need for local mandate for coordination and increased competence in local management. The themes all deal with challenges for HFN:s, presented in earlier research, and link strongly to Senge’s theoretical model for learning organization, trying to build trust and also micro committment for uncertain periods. This contributes to the capacity to be prepared for the unprepared.