Um dos objetivos dos projetos e estudos na área de transporte público é atrair o maior número possível de viagens. Um primeiro passo para estimular uma maior utilização do transporte público pode ser a captação de pessoas que já têm predisposição para utilizá-lo, mas que não o fazem por alguma deficiência específica no serviço. Este é o contexto no qual mapas que representam o potencial de utilização dos transportes públicos podem desempenhar um papel importante, como discutido neste estudo. A pesquisa tem como objetivo principal a aplicação e avaliação de duas técnicas destinadas a identificar potenciais usuários de transporte público e como estes se distribuem geograficamente em uma cidade brasileira selecionada para o estudo. Nas técnicas aqui exploradas, o município em análise é dividido em áreas em função do código de endereçamento postal. Estas áreas são caracterizadas pelos atributos socioeconômicos da sua população e do sistema de transporte. Diante da hipótese de melhoria na qualidade do transporte público, dois segmentos de usuários de automóvel foram determinados: usuários que trocariam para ônibus e usuários que ainda preferem o carro. Com isso, foi construído um modelo capaz de representar o comportamento de escolha dos usuários de cada área. A metodologia proposta envolve quatro passos: i) comparação de modelos Logit elaborados com dados de São Carlos (Brasil) e Wageningen (Holanda), ii) ajustes no modelo de São Carlos, iii) elaboração de um modelo de escolha modal por redes neurais artificiais e iv) elaboração dos mapas potenciais. As duas últimas etapas foram concebidas tanto para análises independentes, como também para comparação com o modelo Logit. Assim, a construção de cenários futuros permitiu identificar e localizar espacialmente os potenciais usuários de transporte público. Foi possível verificar também qual a influência de alguns atributos sobre a escolha do modo de transporte urbano. Por exemplo, usuários de domicílios com três ou quatro pessoas têm menor probabilidade de vir a utilizar o ônibus regularmente. Por fim, um cenário futuro tornou possível destacar áreas onde é esperado um aumento do potencial de uso do transporte público devido a mudanças nos valores de densidade populacional. / One of the objectives of projects and studies on public transport is to attract the largest possible number of trips. A first step for increasing transit ridership may be the attraction of those individuals who already have a predisposition to use the service, but do not use it because of any specific inadequacies. This is the context in which maps displaying the potential use of public transport may play an important role, as discussed in this study. The research aims at the application and evaluation of two techniques used to identify potential users of public transport and to show how they are geographically distributed in a Brazilian city selected for the study. In the techniques discussed here, the municipality under analysis is divided into areas according to the postal codes of the streets. These areas are characterized by socioeconomic attributes of the population and of the transport system. Two segments of automobile users were determined, under the assumption that the quality of public transport would be improved: users who would switch to buses and users who still prefer the car. Based on that, a model designed to represent the choice behavior of users in each urban area was built. The proposed methodology involved four steps: i) the comparison of Logit models built with data of São Carlos (Brazil) and Wageningen (The Netherlands), ii) adjustments in the model of São Carlos, iii) the development of a mode choice model based on artificial neural networks, and iv) construction of potential maps. The third and fourth steps were meant for both independent analysis, and also for comparison with the Logit model. Thus, the construction of future scenarios allowed the identification and spatial location of potential users of public transport. It was also possible to learn about the influence of some attributes on urban transportation choice. For example, users living in households with three or four persons are less likely to become bus riders. Finally, a future scenario was able to highlight the areas where the potential for public transport could be increased due to changes in population density values.

Background: Increased pressure, rising demand and cost constraints have driven a need for radical service re-design in the NHS. To deliver re-design objectives it is necessary to understand how they are perceived by service users and providers. Aim: To investigate the views of patients and health care professionals (HCP) on aspects of health policy and service re-design affecting primary care. Setting: Patients and HCPs from one geographical area in England. Method: Themes from phase one qualitative interviews were explored quantitatively using a questionnaire in phase two and a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in phase three. Factor analysis was used to explore HCP responses in phase two. In phase three the DCE was administered to explore patients‟ relative priorities of a range of attributes. Results: HCPs had concerns that the Quality Outcomes Framework (QOF) detracted from the patient‟s agenda and did not improve health outcomes. GPs felt continuity of care was important Monday through Friday but were not keen on its provision out of hours. Neither did they feel nurses could run chronic disease management clinics without a GP present. Patients felt continuity could be provided by different HCPs for different conditionsPatients stated continuity of care and consultation duration were the most important attributes in a primary care service. However, in the DCE they prioritised both being seen on the day and by a GP over longer appointments. Patient preference to be seen by a GP may reflect the low uptake of non-medical prescribing in the area. Conclusion: Continuity of care, while remarked as being important to both HCPs and patients, appears less important when weighted against other primary care service attributes. HCPs appear to want longer consultations whereas patients saw time as encompassing both the time to wait for an appointment and consultation length. For patients, the quality of the time with a HCP may be more important than its duration, additionally patients appear to want choice but not necessarily to choose.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-05T17:04:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 20 / Nenhuma / Esta pesquisa propõe um método e um modelo matemático fundamentado na métrica Customer Lifetime Value para analisar conjuntamente as preferências e percepções dos consumidores, a relação destas preferências com o sistema de produção e potenciais ações de melhorias no processo produtivo. O método de pesquisa empregado apresenta três fases, a primeira explora a literatura na busca de elementos relevantes ao objetivo proposto. A segunda fase propõe o modelo matemático e o método de avaliação de melhorias e a terceira fase aplica as propostas em um contexto real. Essa aplicação possibilita a avaliação da validade prática dos resultados para a empresa analisada e a análise de viabilidade de utilização do modelo e do método. Os três pilares de sustentação do modelo são os consumidores de um dado mercado com as suas necessidades e percepções em relação aos bens e serviços, as características atribuídas pela produção e as regras para análise do impacto da adoção de diferentes melhorias no sistema produtivo sobre o v / This research aims to propose a method and a mathematic model based on a metric Customer Lifetime Value to analyze jointly the consumer’s preferences and perceptions, the relation between preferences and productive system and potential improvements on productive process. The applied research method shows three stages: the first one explores the literature to find relevant elements for the proposed objective; the second one aims the mathematic model and the evaluation method of improvements and the last one applies all proposals in a real case. This case study allows to analyze practiced results generated by the model and the method and to evaluate application viability analyses. The model is sustained by three fundamental elements: consumers, with their necessities and perceptions about the products and services desired; characteristics of the productive system; and rules to analyze the impact of adoption of different improvements on the productive on the Customer Lifetime Value. The method focuses on interf

Um dos objetivos dos projetos e estudos na área de transporte público é atrair o maior número possível de viagens. Um primeiro passo para estimular uma maior utilização do transporte público pode ser a captação de pessoas que já têm predisposição para utilizá-lo, mas que não o fazem por alguma deficiência específica no serviço. Este é o contexto no qual mapas que representam o potencial de utilização dos transportes públicos podem desempenhar um papel importante, como discutido neste estudo. A pesquisa tem como objetivo principal a aplicação e avaliação de duas técnicas destinadas a identificar potenciais usuários de transporte público e como estes se distribuem geograficamente em uma cidade brasileira selecionada para o estudo. Nas técnicas aqui exploradas, o município em análise é dividido em áreas em função do código de endereçamento postal. Estas áreas são caracterizadas pelos atributos socioeconômicos da sua população e do sistema de transporte. Diante da hipótese de melhoria na qualidade do transporte público, dois segmentos de usuários de automóvel foram determinados: usuários que trocariam para ônibus e usuários que ainda preferem o carro. Com isso, foi construído um modelo capaz de representar o comportamento de escolha dos usuários de cada área. A metodologia proposta envolve quatro passos: i) comparação de modelos Logit elaborados com dados de São Carlos (Brasil) e Wageningen (Holanda), ii) ajustes no modelo de São Carlos, iii) elaboração de um modelo de escolha modal por redes neurais artificiais e iv) elaboração dos mapas potenciais. As duas últimas etapas foram concebidas tanto para análises independentes, como também para comparação com o modelo Logit. Assim, a construção de cenários futuros permitiu identificar e localizar espacialmente os potenciais usuários de transporte público. Foi possível verificar também qual a influência de alguns atributos sobre a escolha do modo de transporte urbano. Por exemplo, usuários de domicílios com três ou quatro pessoas têm menor probabilidade de vir a utilizar o ônibus regularmente. Por fim, um cenário futuro tornou possível destacar áreas onde é esperado um aumento do potencial de uso do transporte público devido a mudanças nos valores de densidade populacional. / One of the objectives of projects and studies on public transport is to attract the largest possible number of trips. A first step for increasing transit ridership may be the attraction of those individuals who already have a predisposition to use the service, but do not use it because of any specific inadequacies. This is the context in which maps displaying the potential use of public transport may play an important role, as discussed in this study. The research aims at the application and evaluation of two techniques used to identify potential users of public transport and to show how they are geographically distributed in a Brazilian city selected for the study. In the techniques discussed here, the municipality under analysis is divided into areas according to the postal codes of the streets. These areas are characterized by socioeconomic attributes of the population and of the transport system. Two segments of automobile users were determined, under the assumption that the quality of public transport would be improved: users who would switch to buses and users who still prefer the car. Based on that, a model designed to represent the choice behavior of users in each urban area was built. The proposed methodology involved four steps: i) the comparison of Logit models built with data of São Carlos (Brazil) and Wageningen (The Netherlands), ii) adjustments in the model of São Carlos, iii) the development of a mode choice model based on artificial neural networks, and iv) construction of potential maps. The third and fourth steps were meant for both independent analysis, and also for comparison with the Logit model. Thus, the construction of future scenarios allowed the identification and spatial location of potential users of public transport. It was also possible to learn about the influence of some attributes on urban transportation choice. For example, users living in households with three or four persons are less likely to become bus riders. Finally, a future scenario was able to highlight the areas where the potential for public transport could be increased due to changes in population density values.

Utilizou-se um modelo de escolha discreta (MED) para avaliar as preferências e disposição-a-pagar (DAP) dos pacientes por diferentes atributos de risco-benefício do tratamento insulínico, entre eles a via de administração da insulina. Através de uma revisão da literatura, consulta com especialistas, e do desenvolvimento de um estudo qualitativo utilizando as técnicas de entrevistas individuais e grupos focais, os atributos (e níveis) mais importantes do tratamento insulínico foram identificados, sob o ponto de vista dos pacientes. Os atributos incluídos no MED foram: controle da glicemia de jejum, número de episódios de hipoglicemia, ganho de peso, via de administração para as insulinas de ação longa e rápida, e custo do tratamento. Pares de opções de tratamentos insulínicos hipotéticos contendo diferentes níveis dos atributos foram apresentados aos pacientes com DM1 ou DM2, e lhes foi solicitado que, para cada cenário, eles escolhessem a alternativa de sua preferência. Dados demográficos, nível sócio-econômico (NSE) e informações relacionadas ao diabetes também foram coletados. Para a análise dos dados utilizou-se um modelo logit condicional de regressão e modelos segmentados foram posteriormente utilizados para a análise das sub-populações. Um total de 274 questionários foram incluídos na análise final dos dados. A idade média (± DP) dos participantes foi de 56.7 ± 12.98 anos, e 53% eram homens. Quarenta e nove por cento dos participantes eram usuários de insulina e 47 eram portadores de DM1. O tratamento insulínico ideal, sob o ponto de vista dos pacientes, resultaria em um melhor controle glicêmico, menos reações adversas, menor custo, e seria administrado por via oral. Houve uma forte preferência e uma DAP mais elevada por um melhor controle glicêmico, seguido pelos atributos de risco ganho de peso e episódios de hipoglicemia. Surpreendentemente, a via de administração da insulina foi o atributo menos valorizado. A estratificação social revelou que pacientes com alta renda anual familiar apresentaram uma DAP mais elevada por um melhor controle glicêmico e por menos reações adversas em relação aos grupos com rendas inferiores. Ainda, quanto mais alto o nível de renda, maior o desejo por uma insulina oral, enquanto a via inalada torna-se menos importante para os pacientes. A estratificação da amostra pelo uso de insulina e tipo de diabetes revelaram uma forte aversão pela via subcutânea pelos não-usuários de insulina e pacientes com DM2. Tais resultados sugerem a existência de uma importante barreira psicológica em se iniciar uso da insulina; no entanto, os resultados também revelam que os pacientes tendem a se acomodar com a via subcutânea uma vez iniciado o tratamento insulínico. Este estudo demonstra a importância que os pacientes com DM atribuem ao atributo controle glicêmico, e como suas preferências e DAP pelo tratamento insulínico variam entre as sub-populações. Especificamente, esforços devem ser realizados no sentido de vencer a barreira psicológica em se iniciar o uso da insulina, o que contribuirá para que se alcance um melhor controle glicêmico, através da melhor aderência do paciente ao tratamento, resultando em uma redução dos custos do DM e melhora na qualidade de vida dos pacientes. / We used a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to evaluate patients preferences for various attributes of insulin treatment, including route of insulin delivery. Through a review of the literature, expert consultation, and a qualitative descriptive study using individual interviews and focus group techniques, the attributes (and levels) of diabetes treatment most important to patients were identified. The attributes included in the DCE were: glucose control, frequency of hypoglycaemic events, weight gain, route of administration for the long-acting and the short-acting insulin, and out-of-pocket cost. Patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes were presented with pairs of hypothetical insulin therapy profiles (i.e. choice sets) with different levels of the attributes and were asked to choose the treatment option they preferred. Sociodemographic data and diabetes medication were also collected. Data were analysed using conditional logit regression and segmented models were also developed for the analysis of subgroups. A Two hundred and seventy four questionnaires were completed. The mean age (±SD) of participants was 56.7 ± 12.98 years, and 53% were men. Forty-nine percent of participants were insulin users, and 47 had type 1 diabetes. Overall, patients ideal insulin treatment would provide better glucose control, result in fewer adverse reactions, have the lowest cost, and be administered orally. There was a strong preference and highest mean WTP for glucose control followed by the risk attributes weight gain and hypoglycaemic events. Surprisingly, route of insulin administration was the least valued attribute. Stratification of the sample revealed that patients with higher incomes had a significant higher WTP for better glucose control and less adverse reactions compared to lower income groups. Moreover, the highest the income, the stronger the preference for an oral insulin, while inhaled insulin becomes less important for patients. Segmented models by insulin use and type of diabetes indicated that insulin naïve and type 2 diabetics had a greater aversion to the subcutaneous route. These findings suggest that there may be an important mental barrier to initiating insulin therapy; however, patients tend to accommodate to subcutaneous administration once they initiate therapy. This study illustrates the importance that patients with diabetes place on glucose control and how preferences for insulin therapy vary between subgroups. Specifically, efforts need to be made to overcome the mental barrier to initiating insulin therapy, which may lead to improved control, through improved compliance and ultimately reduce the financial burden of the disease and improve patients quality of life.

Apresenta-se um procedimento para estimativa da matriz origem-destino (O/D) a partir de um modelo de escolha discreta em combinação com uma matriz O/D de transporte público, a qual pode ser estimada de maneira relativamente fácil e rápida. O modelo de escolha discreta utilizado para realizar a divisão modal é o modelo logit multinomial. A calibração do modelo logit é realizada com base em 505 observações e considerando três situações: a população de viajantes sem segmentação, com segmentação segundo posse de automóvel no domicílio, e com segmentação segundo a distância de viagem. Analisa-se a precisão da estimativa do número de viagens quando as zonas de controle que formam a área de estudo são divididas segundo o critério de distância de acesso às linhas de ônibus. Na verificação realizada são empregados dados obtidos da pesquisa domiciliar realizada na cidade de Bauru, SP. Os erros cometidos na estimativa são medidos e comparados com os resultados obtidos na pesquisa domiciliar sem expansão. O trabalho demostrou experimentalmente que o procedimento proposto é uma alternativa viável para se obter a distribuição de viagens e, portanto, para determinar a matriz O/D. / A procedure is presented for estimating an origin-destination (O/D) matrix using a discrete choice model jointly with a public transport O/D matrix; the latter being relatively easy and fast to obtain. A multinomial logit discrete choice model is used to determine the mode split of travelers among several available modes. The model is estimated using a sample of 505 observations chosen from a household 0/D survey in the city of Bauru, state of Sao Paulo. This survey is used throughout to verify the results of the proposed methodology. Three different models are considered: one without segmentation of the population, one with segmentation according to car ownership and one with segmentation according to travel distance. An examination is made of the changes on the level of precision of the number of trips estimated with the division of the control zones that conform the study area; the aforementioned division was carried out on the basis of an access distance to the bus network criterion. The estimation errors are measured and compared to the unexpanded O/D survey results. The research shows empirically that the proposed procedure can be used to obtain the distribution of trips and hence to determine an aggregate O/D matrix.

No description available.

In both developed and emerging-economies, major cities continue to experience increasing traffic congestion. To address this issue, complex Traffic Management Systems (TMS) are employed in recent years to help manage traffic. These systems fuse traffic-surveillance-related information from a variety of sensors deployed across traffic networks. A TMS requires real-time information to make effective control decisions and to deliver trustworthy information to users, such as travel time, congestion level, etc. There are three fundamental inputs required by TMS, namely, traffic volume, vehicular speed, and traffic density. Using conventional traffic loop detectors one can directly measure flow and velocity. However, traffic density is more difficult to measure. The situation becomes more difficult for multi-lane motorways due to drivers lane-change behaviour. This research investigates statistical modelling and analysis of traffic flow. It contributes to the literature of transportation and traffic management and research in several aspects. First, it takes into account lane-changes in traffic modelling through incorporating a Markov chain model to describe the drivers lane-change behaviour. Secondly, the lane change probabilities between two adjacent lanes are not assumed to be fixed but rather they depend on the current traffic condition. A discrete choice model is used to capture drivers lane choice behaviour. The drivers choice probabilities are modelled by several traffic-condition related attributes such as vehicle time headway, traffic density and speed. This results in a highly nonlinear state equation for traffic density. To address the issue of high nonlinearity of the state space model, the EKF and UKF is used to estimate the traffic density recursively. In addition, a new transformation approach has been proposed to transform the observation equation from a nonlinear form to a linear one so that the potential approximation in the EKF & UKF can be avoided. Numerical studies have been conducted to investigate the performance of the developed method. The proposed method outperformed the existing methods for traffic density estimation in simulation studies. Furthermore, it is shown that the computational cost for updating the estimate of traffic densities for a multi-lane motorway is kept at a minimum so that online applications are feasible in practice. Consequently the traffic densities can be monitored and the relevant information can be fed into the traffic management system of interest.

[Truncated abstract] Air pollution is increasingly perceived to be a serious intangible threat to humanity, with air quality continuing to deteriorate in most urban areas. The main sources of inner city pollution are motor vehicles, which generate emissions from the tail pipe as well as by evaporation. These contain toxic gaseous components which have adverse health effects. The major components are carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitric oxide (NO), sulphur dioxide (SO2), particulates (PM10), and volatile organic compounds (VOC). CO and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) are major emissions from cars. This study focuses on pollutant concentration in Perth city and has sought to develop measures to improve air quality. To estimate concentrations, the study develops air pollution models for CO and NOx; on the basis of the model estimates, effective policy is devised to improve the air quality by managing travel to the city. Two peaks, due to traffic, are observed in hourly CO and NOx concentrations. Unlike traffic, however, the morning peak does not reach the level of the afternoon peak. The reasons for this divergence are assessed and quantified. Separate causal models of hourly concentrations of CO and NOx explain their fluctuations accurately. They take account of the complex effects of the urban street canyon and winds in the city. The angle of incidence of the wind has significant impact on pollution level; a wind flow from the south-west increases pollution and wind from the north-east decreases it. The models have been shown to be equivalent to engineering and scientific models in estimating emission rate in the context of street canyons. However the study models are much more precise in the Perth context. ... The models are used to calculate the marginal effects for all attributes and elasticity for fuel price. In almost all attributes the non-work group is more responsive than the work group. Finally, the SP model results are integrated into an econometric model for the purpose of prediction. The travel behaviour prediction is used to estimate the policy impact on air quality. The benefit from the air quality improvement is reported in terms of life saved. The estimated relationships between probability of death and air pollution determines the number of lives that could be saved under various policy scenarios. A ratio of benefits to the financial and perceived sacrifices by drivers is calculated to compare the effectiveness of the suggested policies. A car size charge policy was found to be the most cost effective measure to ameliorate the environmental impact of cars in Perth, with a morning peak entry time charge being almost as cost effective. The study demonstrates the need for appropriate modelling of air pollution and travel behaviour. It brings together analytical methods at three levels of causality, vehicle to air pollution, charge to travel response, and air pollution to health.

[pt] Esse estudo investiga em que medida o desenvolvimento e introdução de novas aeronaves moldam a estrutura da rede das companhias aéreas. Argumento que aeronaves modernas são mais eficientes e adequadas para operar voos entre cidades menores e menos centrais, favorecendo assim o serviço em mais mercados na periferia da rede. Com dados sobre o tráfego aéreo dos Estados Unidos, utilizo um arcabouço de escolha discreta para modelar as decisões de entrada das companhias e a subsequente escolha de aeronave em cada mercado. Experimentos contrafactuais mostram que, caso o desenvolvimento de tecnologia tivesse cessado em 1999, a rede de tráfego aéreo como um todo estaria mais centralizada, a maioria das companhias estariam operando redes mais centradas em torno de hubs, alcançando menos cidades e servindo menos mercados. / [en] This paper studies to what extent the development of new aircraft shapes airlines network structure. I argue that modern aircraft are more efficient and well suited to operate flights between smaller and less central cities, hence favoring the service of more markets in the periphery of the network. Using U.S. air traffic data, I employ a discrete choice framework to model airlines entry decisions and the subsequent aircraft choice to each market. Counterfactual experiments show that had aircraft technology ceased to improve in 1999, the air traffic network as a whole would be more centralized, airlines would be operating more hub-centered networks, reaching fewer cities, and serving fewer markets.