In this thesis, I investigate economic and policy implications of individual choice decisions, including consumers’ choices among differentiated products and households’ decisions on intra-household resource allocations. In the first chapter, I develop a consumer demand model for US retail banking services in which consumers have preference over the geographical convenience of their banks’ networks. The purpose of the study is to identify consumers’ taste for branch network convenience in the US banking industry and to assess the effect of this demand motive on bank revenues, consumer surplus, and market structure. I show that consumers value the geographical convenience of their bank branch network to a large extent. Specifically, a branch that is one mile closer is equivalent to a branch with a 0.4 percent higher annual interest rate. Furthermore, consumers value proximity of the branch network to both their residence and workplace. The counterfactual experiment shows that banks with a larger number of branches enjoy greater network benefits in terms of revenue. Meanwhile, consumers benefit from the reduction in their expected travel distance by choosing depository institutions with large-scale networks. The second chapter examines how parents adjust bride-prices and land divisions to compensate their sons for differences in their schooling expenditures in rural China. The model is tested using data from a unique household interview survey carried out in Hebei Province. The main estimate implies that when a son receives one yuan less in schooling investment than his brother, he will obtain 0.7 yuan more in observable marital and post-marital transfers as partial compensation. This marginal compensation estimate is quantitatively larger than any comparable estimate using North American data, suggesting that the unitary model is a useful model of resource allocation for sons in traditional agricultural families. As a supplement to Chapter 2, Chapter 3 investigates matchmakers’ negotiation role in rural Chinese marriages and its impact on marital transfer from the parents to the children at the time of marriage. Using a unique household-level dataset collected in Hebei province, I find that a negotiator’s involvement can raise the total marital transfer by 20 percent, which supports my public goods story.

<p>In the first chapter of this dissertation, I outline a hedonic equilibrium model that explicitly controls for moving costs and forward-looking behavior. Hedonic equilibrium models allow researchers to recover willingness to pay for spatially delineated amenities by using the notion that individuals "vote with their feet." However, the hedonic literature and, more recently, the estimable Tiebout sorting model literature, has largely ignored both the costs associated with migration (financial and psychological), as well as the forward-looking behavior that individuals exercise in making location decisions. Each of these omissions could lead to biased estimates of willingness to pay. Building upon dynamic migration models from the labor literature, I estimate a fully dynamic model of individual migration at the national level. By employing a two-step estimation routine, I avoid the computational burden associated with the full recursive solution and can then include a richly-specified, realistic state space. With this model, I am able to perform non-market valuation exercises and learn about the spatial determinants of labor market outcomes in a dynamic setting. Including dynamics has a significant positive impact on the estimates of willingness to pay for air quality. In addition, I find that location-specific amenity values can explain important trends in observed migration patterns in the United States.</p><p>The second chapter of this dissertation describes a model which estimates willingness to pay for air quality using property value hedonics techniques. Since Rosen's seminal 1974 paper, property value hedonics has become commonplace in the non-market valuation of environmental amenities, despite a number of well-known methodological problems. In particular, recovery of the marginal willingness to pay function suffers from important endogeneity biases that are difficult to correct with instrumental variables procedures [Epple (1987)]. Bajari and Benkard (2005) propose a "preference inversion" procedure for recovering heterogeneous measures of marginal willingness to pay that avoids these problems. However, using cross-sectional data, their approach imposes unrealistic constraints on the elasticity of marginal willingness to pay. Following Bajari and Benkard's suggestion, I show how data describing repeat purchase decisions by individual home buyers can be used to relax these constraints. Using data on ozone pollution in the Bay Area of California, I find that endogeneity bias and flexibility in the shape of the marginal willingness to pay function are both important.</p><p>Finally, in the third chapter of this dissertation, I combine the insights of the Bajari-Benkard inversion approach employed in second chapter with more standard estimation techniques (i.e., Rosen (1974)) to arrive at a new hedonic methodology that allows for flexible and heterogeneous preferences while avoiding the endogeneity problems that plague the traditional Rosen two-stage model. Implementing this estimator using the Bay Area ozone data, I again find evidence of considerable heterogeneity and of endogeneity bias. In particular, I find that a one unit deterioration in air quality (measured in days in which ozone levels exceed the state standards) raises marginal willingness to pay by $145.18 per year. The canonical two-stage Rosen model finds, counter-intuitively, that this same change would reduce marginal willingness to pay by $94.24.</p> / Dissertation

<p>In this dissertation, I discuss two important factors in individuals' decision-making processes: subjective expectation bias and time-inconsistent preferences. In Chapter I, I look at how individuals' own subjective expectations about certain future events are different from what actually happens in the future, even after controlling for individuals' private information. This difference, which is defined as the expectation bias in this paper, is found to have important influence on individuals' choices. Specifically, I look into the relationship between US elderly's subjective longevity expectation biases and their smoking choices. I find that US elderly tend to over-emphasize the importance of their genetic makeup but underestimate the influence of their health-related choices, such as smoking, on their longevity. This finding can partially explain why even though US elderly are found to be more concerned with their health and more forward-looking than we would have concluded using a model which does not allow for subjective expectation bias, we still observe many smokers. The policy simulation further confirms that if certain public policies can be designed to correct individuals' expectation biases about the effects of their genes and health-related choices on their longevity, then the average smoking rate for the age group analyzed in this paper will go down by about 4%.</p><p>In Chapter II, my co-author, Hanming Fang, and I look at one possible explanation to the under-utilization of preventive health care in the United States: procrastination. Procrastination, the phenomenon that individuals postpone certain decisions which incur instantaneous costs but bring long-term benefits, is captured in economics by hyperbolic discount factors and the corresponding time-inconsistent preferences. This chapter extends the semi-parametric identification and estimation method for dynamic discrete choice models using Hotz and Miller's (1993) conditional choice probability approach to the setting where individuals may have hyperbolic discounting time preferences and may be naive about their time inconsistency. We implement the proposed estimation method to US adult women's decisions of undertaking mammography tests to evaluate the importance of present bias and naivety in the under-utilization of mammography, controlling for other potentially important explanatory factors such as age, race, household income, and marital status. Preliminary results show evidence for both present bias and naivety in adult women's decisions of undertaking mammography tests. Using the parameters estimated, we further conduct some policy simulations to quantify the effects of the present bias and naivety on the utilization of preventive health care in the US.</p> / Dissertation

<p>This dissertation consists of three chapters relating to</p> <p>identification and inference in dynamic microeconometric models</p> <p>including dynamic discrete games with many players, dynamic games with</p> <p>discrete and continuous choices, and semiparametric binary choice and</p> <p>duration panel data models.</p> <p>The first chapter provides a framework for estimating large-scale</p> <p>dynamic discrete choice models (both single- and multi-agent models)</p> <p>in continuous time. The advantage of working in continuous time is</p> <p>that state changes occur sequentially, rather than simultaneously,</p> <p>avoiding a substantial curse of dimensionality that arises in</p> <p>multi-agent settings. Eliminating this computational bottleneck is</p> <p>the key to providing a seamless link between estimating the model and</p> <p>performing post-estimation counterfactuals. While recently developed</p> <p>two-step estimation techniques have made it possible to estimate</p> <p>large-scale problems, solving for equilibria remains computationally</p> <p>challenging. In many cases, the models that applied researchers</p> <p>estimate do not match the models that are then used to perform</p> <p>counterfactuals. By modeling decisions in continuous time, we are able</p> <p>to take advantage of the recent advances in estimation while</p> <p>preserving a tight link between estimation and policy experiments. We</p> <p>also consider estimation in situations with imperfectly sampled data,</p> <p>such as when we do not observe the decision not to move, or when data</p> <p>is aggregated over time, such as when only discrete-time data are</p> <p>available at regularly spaced intervals. We illustrate the power of</p> <p>our framework using several large-scale Monte Carlo experiments.</p> <p>The second chapter considers semiparametric panel data binary choice</p> <p>and duration models with fixed effects. Such models are point</p> <p>identified when at least one regressor has full support on the real</p> <p>line. It is common in practice, however, to have only discrete or</p> <p>continuous, but possibly bounded, regressors. We focus on</p> <p>identification, estimation, and inference for the identified set in</p> <p>such cases, when the parameters of interest may only be partially</p> <p>identified. We develop a set of general results for</p> <p>criterion-function-based estimation and inference in partially</p> <p>identified models which can be applied to both regular and irregular</p> <p>models. We apply our general results first to a fixed effects binary</p> <p>choice panel data model where we obtain a sharp characterization of</p> <p>the identified set and propose a consistent set estimator,</p> <p>establishing its rate of convergence under different conditions.</p> <p>Rates arbitrarily close to <italic>n<super>-1/3</super></italic> are</p> <p>possible when a continuous, but possibly bounded, regressor is</p> <p>present. When all regressors are discrete the estimates converge</p> <p>arbitrarily fast to the identified set. We also propose a</p> <p>subsampling-based procedure for constructing confidence regions in the</p> <p>models we consider. Finally, we carry out a series of Monte Carlo</p> <p>experiments to illustrate and evaluate the proposed procedures. We</p> <p>also consider extensions to other fixed effects panel data models such</p> <p>as binary choice models with lagged dependent variables and duration</p> <p>models.</p> <p>The third chapter considers nonparametric identification of dynamic</p> <p>games of incomplete information in which players make both discrete</p> <p>and continuous choices. Such models are commonly used in applied work</p> <p>in industrial organization where, for example, firms make discrete</p> <p>entry and exit decisions followed by continuous investment decisions.</p> <p>We first review existing identification results for single agent</p> <p>dynamic discrete choice models before turning to single-agent models</p> <p>with an additional continuous choice variable and finally to</p> <p>multi-agent models with both discrete and continuous choices. We</p> <p>provide conditions for nonparametric identification of the utility</p> <p>function in both cases.</p> / Dissertation

The overall goal of the dissertation is to contribute to the growing literature on multiple discrete-continuous (MDC) choice models. In MDC choice situations, consumers often encounter two inter-related decisions at a choice instance – which alternative(s) to choose for consumption from a set of available alternatives, and the amount to consume of the chosen alternatives. In the recent literature, there is increasing attention on modeling MDC situations based on a rigorous underlying micro-economic utility maximization framework. Among these models, the multiple-discrete continuous extreme value MDCEV model (Bhat, 2005, 2008) provides a number of advantages over other models. The primary objective of this dissertation is to extend the MDCEV framework to accommodate more realistic decision-making processes from a behavioral standpoint. The dissertation has two secondary objectives. The first is to advance the current operationalization and the econometric modeling of MDC choice situations. The second is to contribute to the transportation literature by estimating MDC models that provide new insights on individuals’ travel decision processes. The proposed extensions of the MDCEV model include: (1) To formulate and estimate a latent choice set generation model within the MDCEV framework, (2) To develop a random utility-based model formulation that extends the MDCEV model to include multiple linear constraints, and (3) To extend the MDCEV model to relax the assumption of an additively separable utility function. The methodologies developed in this dissertation allow the specification and estimation of complex MDC choice models, and may be viewed as a major advance with the potential to lead to significant breakthroughs in the way MDC choices are structured and implemented. These methodologies provide a more realistic representation of the choice process. The proposed extensions are applied to different empirical contexts within the transportation field, including participation in and travel mileage allocated to non-work activities during various time periods of the day for workers, participation in recreational activities and time allocation for workers, and household expenditures in disaggregate transportation categories. The results from these exercises clearly underline the importance of relaxing some of the assumptions made, not only in the MDCEV model, but in MDC models in general. / text

American households spend over $30 billion on tourism and take over 177 million long-distance leisure trips each year. These trips, and the subsequent vehicle miles traveled, have a significant impact on the transportation systems at major destinations across the country, especially those destinations that are still improving their transportation systems. Surprisingly, not much is known related to this type of travel. This dissertation expands the current knowledge of tourism travel behavior, in terms of how people make decisions regarding long-distance leisure activities and time use. Specifically, this dissertation develops and comprehensively examines a behavioral framework for household tourism time use and activity patterns. This framework combines (and builds upon) theory and methods from both transportation and tourism research fields such that it can be used to improve tourism demand modeling. This framework takes an interdisciplinary approach to describe how long distance leisure travelers allocate and maximize their time use across various types of activities. It also considers the many levels of tourism time use and activity patterns, including the structuring the broad annual leisure activity and time budget, forming individual tourism trips within the defined budget, and selecting specific activities and timing during each distinct tourism trip. Subsequently, this dissertation will additionally apply the time use and activity participation behavioral framework to four critical tourism research topics to demonstrate how the tourism behavioral framework can effectively be used to provide behavioral insights into some of the most commonly studied critical tourism issues. These application topics include household participation in broad tourism travel activities, travel parties’ tourism destination and travel mode selection, individuals’ loyalty towards daily and tourism activities, and travel parties’ participation in combinations of specific tourism trip activities. These application studies incorporate a variety of data sources, decision makers, study scales, situation-appropriate modeling techniques, and economic/individual/environmental factors to capture all aspects of the decision and travel activity-making process. / text

<p>This dissertation consists of three separate essays that use dynamic models to better understand the human capital accumulation process. First, I analyze the role of migration in human capital accumulation and how migration varies over the business cycle. An interesting trend in the data is that, over the period of the Great Recession, overall migration rates in the US remained close to their respective long-term trends. However, migration evolved differently by employment status: unemployed workers were more likely to migrate during the recession and employed workers less likely. To isolate mechanisms explaining this divergence, I estimate a dynamic, non-stationary search model of migration using a national longitudinal survey from 2004-2013. I focus on the role of employment frictions on migration decisions in addition to other explanations in the literature. My results show that a divergence in job offer and job destruction rates caused differing migration incentives by employment status. I also find that migration rates were muted because of the national scope of the Great Recession. Model simulations show that spatial unemployment insurance in the form of a moving subsidy can help workers move to more favorable markets.</p><p>In the second essay, my coauthors and I explore the role of information frictions in the acquisition of human capital. Specifically, we investigate the determinants of college attrition in a setting where individuals have imperfect information about their schooling ability and labor market productivity. We estimate a dynamic structural model of schooling and work decisions, where high school graduates choose a bundle of education and work combinations. We take into account the heterogeneity in schooling investments by distinguishing between two- and four-year colleges and graduate school, as well as science and non-science majors for four-year colleges. Individuals may also choose whether to work full-time, part-time, or not at all. A key feature of our approach is to account for correlated learning through college grades and wages, thus implying that individuals may leave or re-enter college as a result of the arrival of new information on their ability and/or productivity. We use our results to quantify the importance of informational frictions in explaining the observed school-to-work transitions and to examine sorting patterns.</p><p>In the third essay, my coauthors and I investigate the evolution over the last two decades in the wage returns to schooling and early work experience. </p><p>Using data from the 1979 and 1997 panels of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we isolate changes in skill prices from changes in composition by estimating a dynamic model of schooling and work decisions. Importantly, this allows us to account for the endogenous nature of the changes in educational and accumulated work experience over this time period. We find an increase over this period in the returns to working in high school, but a decrease in the returns to working while in college. We also find an increase in the incidence of working in college, but that any detrimental impact of in-college work experience is offset by changes in other observable characteristics. Overall, our decomposition of the evolution in skill premia suggests that both price and composition effects play an important role. The role of unobserved ability is also important.</p> / Dissertation

Discrete choice models form a class of models widely used in econometrics for modelling the individual choice from a finite set of alternatives. The most widely used model is the multinomial logit model, implicitly assuming independence of irrelevant alternatives. A generalization is the nested multinomial logit model, relaxing this strong assurnp tion. Viewing both models as nonlinear regression models a set of diagnostics is derived. This includes a hat matrix, measures of leverage, influence and residuals and an approximation to the parameters for case deletion. In an example for the multinomid logit model a good performance of these diagnostics is observed and the parameter approximation by the proposed formula is better than a one step Newton-Raphson procedure. In an example for the nested logit model a constructed outlier with high influence is revealed by the measures of leverage and residual, but the parameter approximation is insufficient. (author's abstract) / Series: Forschungsberichte / Institut für Statistik

Hawaii’s pristine ocean and tropical environment is a keystone of Hawaii tourism and the state economy. Water pollution from stormwater and development threatens the beach quality to both residents and tourists. In order to understand the lost nonmarket value, we assess changes in quality of beach characteristics including water and sand quality, swimming safety conditions, and congestion using a Discrete Choice Experiment of recreational beach users. Further, we study willingness to pay (WTP) for water management strategies in Hawaii using another discrete choice experiment, including structural and nonstructural Best Management Practices, testing, monitoring, and educational efforts. Using a mixed logit model, beach quality results suggest similar preferences among resident and tourists. Both groups consistently have higher WTP to avoid poor quality levels versus obtaining excellent levels. Additionally, water quality is the single most important attribute. For the policy discrete choice experiment, both parties exhibit similar ranking of WTP to initiate water quality management strategies, with improved testing methods followed by education having the highest WTP. Lastly, we use Benefit-Cost analysis to find that all significant management strategies may be viable, since WTP is greater than the predicted cost of implementation based on expert opinion of Hawaiian policy leaders.

THE AUSTRALIAN HEALTH CARE SYSTEM has an overarching objective to improve the well-being of all Australians in an equitable and efficient manner. But like most developed economy health care systems, it has experienced a continual increase in demand for health care services along with increased pressure to improve efficiency, quality, and sustainability. To assist in health sector management, policy formulation, investment decisions and reform, the Australian government developed the National Health Performance Framework (NHPF). The NHPF employs performance indicators across nine dimensions of health care, including Effectiveness, Appropriateness, Efficiency, Responsiveness, Accessibility, Safety, Continuity, Capability, and Sustainability. While the National Health Performance Committee has recognised that performance indicators used within the NHPF are inadequate, this thesis argues that the solution is not a simple matter of collecting additional data and constructing new and ???improved??? indicators. Due to resource constraints within the health care system there is an implicit performance trade-off across dimensions. The NHPF must take into consideration the value individuals place on the health care dimensions to enable a shift of limited resources to those areas that are most valued. The starting point for the NHPF should be to determine what society wants out of a health system. The purpose of this thesis is to determine Australian society???s preferences for performance across the nine NHPF dimensions of health care. This is achieved using a choice modelling experiment, which describes the performance of the current health care system and alternative health care systems the government could work towards, and asks respondents to compare and choose which system they prefer. A mixed multinomial logit model is used to analyse respondent choices in order to incorporate alternative tastes across attributes, and correlation of tastes across alternatives and scenarios. Relative values attached to the nine NHPF dimensions of health care are calculated and preferences for the dimensions are ranked. The thesis concludes by exploring individual preferences derived form the choice modelling experiment in the context of social welfare theory. It also outlines the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology, provides suggestions for further research, and offers a use for social preferences in the development of performance frameworks within the Australian health care system.