Magister Philosophiae - MPhil / One of the population structures associated with demographic dividend is “demographic transition”, which is a shift from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality. It is understood that low dependency ratio (shows that there are relatively more adults of working age who can support the young and the old of the populace) is one major factor in achieving a successful demographic dividend (DD) (Esther, 2013). DD refers to the fast-economic growth that is achieved by a country when there are dependency ratios. This definition means that the proportion of people of working age group (15-64) is higher, compared to those of ages lower than 15 and above 64 years (Statistics SA, 2017). / 2022

This paper investigates the potential procyclical effects of fair value accounting (FVA). If FVA adjustments result in increased accounting profits with the recognition of transitory gains through a firm's profit and loss (P&L), and if management incorrectly assesses the persistence of the unrealised gains, these increased profits may be paid out as dividends. This has the potential to increase leverage and risk for these firms, thereby also possibly amplifying economic cycles. A study by Goncharov and Van Triest (2011:59) on Russian firms found that FVA adjustments are persistent in future earnings; however, no empirical evidence was found to support an increase in dividends in response to unrealised FVA gains. By contrast, when the setting is limited to South African banks only, De Jager (2015:157) found that South African banks have paid the full amount of any unrealised transitory gains as dividends. This study focuses on the effects of FVA adjustments on dividend policy for South African firms, as represented by the firms included in the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index. This furthers De Jager's (2015) study by extending the investigation of the dividend relevance of FVA adjustments from the major South African banks, to South African large firms in general. The results of a panel regression of the net profit of these firms reveal that unrealised FVA adjustments do have a persistent influence on future earnings, indicating that these adjustments contain both transitory and persistent elements. A further panel regression of the annual dividends declared by these firms indicates that dividend payments do include a portion of unrealised FVA gains, as expected by the persistent nature of a portion of these unrealised FVA gains.

Chapter 1 examines the effect of property-type diversification in equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) from 1995 to 2006. A strong positive relationship is documented between property-type diversification and return on assets, return on equity, and Tobin’s Q. The diversification benefit comes from both the ability to select better performing property types in “hot” markets and the limited exposure to poorly performing property types in “cold” markets. Diversified REITs produce higher cash flows relative to equity as a result of a broader opportunity set; moreover, return on assets increases with the degree of diversification, which suggests significant shielding to property-type specific risk. Additionally, results indicate that diversified REITs operate and trade above their contemporaneous predicted values, which are calculated using imputed multipliers from specialized REITs. The evidence shows that the market is operating efficiently and has incorporated this information; diversified REITs Q ratios are significantly greater than specialized REITs. Chapter 2 uses a large sample of municipal bond closed-end funds to examine how tax liability affects seasonal trading. Optimal tax trading dictates that net tax liability be calculated after all trades. Investors’ net tax liability is held in a holding account of his or her choosing. This study investigates what happens when there is tax liability in excess of Safe Harbor, and tax holding accounts are liquidated to cover the payments. We find that there exists a pattern of negative returns and increased volume in the month of March that is unexplained by changes in yield. iii Chapter 3 examines the ex-dividend day effect for municipal bond closed-end. The proposed explanations for this phenomenon are tax effects, short-term trading and/or market microstructure effects. In this study I use a unique set of dividend distributions to provide additional evidence that ex-dividend behavior is related to taxation as well as short-term trading. The sample I use is comprised of dividends in nontaxable closed-end funds, which ordinarily are not subject to Federal Income Tax. However, there is an occasional distribution that is subject to capital gains or ordinary income tax. This provides a unique environment in which to study the ex-dividend price behavior of a fund while eliminating the need for comparisons across funds.

This study examines the potential relationship between companies' adaptation to shareholders' preferences for dividends in SEK and the number of shareholders, as well as whether this relationship varies across different age groups. Previous research has explored individuals' preferences for dividends and potential age-related differences in these preferences. There have also been studies investigating investors' preferences for dividend payments in Swedish companies. However, there is a knowledge gap regarding how dividend payments affect the number of shareholders, which justifies the need for this study. The study utilizes data from worldscope and datastream for publicly traded companies on the Stockholm Stock Exchange OMXSPI that paid dividends during the period of 2017-2019. To analyze the hypotheses, the study employs multivariate regressions. The results indicate some indications of a relationship, particularly between companies' adaptation to shareholders' preferences for dividends in SEK and the number of shareholders in the 60+ age group. The study's findings also suggest weak but not statistically significant tendencies towards a more general relationship between dividend payments and all shareholders during the years 2017-2019.

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<p>In the first chapter, I conduct an eye-tracking experiment to measure how subjects allocate attention over a price chart while they predict future stock returns. I confirm that the attention allocation reflects how subjects form expectations from past price information. The measure of expectation based on eye-tracking quantitatively fits the actual forecasts submitted by subjects. Easily recognizable patterns in data receive disproportionately more attention: Subjects spend much more time reading recent as well as extreme trends and price levels. Such heuristics in information acquisition are heterogeneous across subjects and lead to inferior forecast precision. Overall, the results provide direct evidence for investor beliefs hypothesized by theories of return extrapolation. </p> <p><br></p> <p>In the second chapter, co-authored by Sergey Chernenko and Huseyin Gulen, we use data on scrip dividends, which give shareholders the option to receive additional shares instead of cash dividends, to investigate how investors form expectations of future returns. Shareholders are more likely to elect to receive dividends in shares when recent past returns are higher, especially when returns are positive and volatile. Actions based on extrapolative beliefs are stronger in small firms, growth firms, and firms with low institutional ownership. Finally, take-up rates of scrip dividends negatively predict both short- and long-run future returns.</p>

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In this research, I classify all stocks into two groups: dividend and non-dividend payers and hypothesize that profitability premium may only exist among the firms with unforeseeable future cash flows, i.e., non-dividend payers. As expected, my empirical results support that profitability premium only exists among non-dividend payers but is very trivial among dividend payers. Dividends have a moderate effect on profitability premiums. To dig further into the source of profitability premium, I investigated risk and behavioral explanations from three perspectives: macroeconomics, industry, and total risks investors perceive for a firm. The evidence from empirical analysis supports that the profitability premium is mainly driven by the overpriced, unprofitable non-dividend payers, which, on average, have negative earnings announcement returns. In contrast, there is no significant positive or negative abnormal return from earnings announcements for portfolios sorted by profitability among dividend payers. Furthermore, the evidence from analyst forecast errors confirms that analysts are over-optimistic about unprofitable non-dividend-paying stocks and disagree more with their EPS forecast. Overall, the study finds that investors' expectation errors are the source of the profitability premium. It rejects the idea that risk is the profitability premium driver.

Yes / This paper examines a new channel through which dividend policy can affect firm value. We find that firms that pay dividends exhibit lower systematic liquidity risk than those that do not. We also report a significant negative relationship between dividend payment and systematic liquidity risk. The liquidity improvement associated with dividend payments translates into an economically meaningful reduction in the cost of equity capital. Our results are robust to endogeneity concerns, to alternative measures of liquidity risk and dividend payouts, and to alternative model specifications. Further analysis suggests that the reduction in liquidity risk associated with dividend payouts is more pronounced for weakly governed firms and firms with opaque informational environment. Finally, we find that the recent financial crisis led to a greater increase in systematic liquidity risk for firms with no or low dividend payouts. Overall, our study implies that dividend policy can be used by corporate managers to shape liquidity risk and mitigate the adverse impact of economic downturns on the value of their firms.

Bolagens vinstutdelning har länge varit omdiskuterad och rönt mycket uppmärksamhet under de senaste årtiondena. Tidigare forskning har påvisat dess relevans ur ett flertal perspektiv, trots detta finns inget enstämmigt svar på vilka faktorer som påverkar bolagens vinstutdelning. Ett relativt nytt forskningsområde avser styrelsens sammansättning och dess relation till bolagens vinstutdelning. Studien utgår ifrån detta forskningsområde för att kunna urskilja hur diverse styrelsevariabler påverkar utdelningsnivåerna. Därför ämnar studien att svara på om styrelsens sammansättning har något samband med de svenska large cap- bolagens vinstutdelning och i så fall hur sambandet ser ut. Studiens syfte är att undersöka om styrelsens sammansättning relaterar, och i så fall hur, med bolagens vinstutdelning på den svenska börsen. Utifrån tidigare forskning och teori har författarna lyckats urskilja följande styrelsevariabler som är relevanta att undersöka: styrelsestorlek, styrelsens oberoende, andel kvinnliga styrelseledamöter, styrelsens ämbetstid, styrelsens aktieinnehav och den verkställande direktörens dualitet. Datan för dessa variabler samlades in manuellt via respektive bolags årsredovisning under en femårsperiod mellan 2010 och 2014. För att kunna besvara studiens frågeställning utgick författarna från ett kvantitativt metodval. Utifrån befintlig teori och tidigare empirisk forskning konstruerades hypoteser över hur respektive styrelsevariabel bör påverka bolagens vinstutdelning. För att kunna avgöra om styrelsens sammansättning påverkar bolagens vinstutdelning utförde författarna en OLS- regression och en robust regression. Därtill tillkom tester för multikollinearitetsproblem och heteroskedasticitet. Baserat på studiens resultat verkar det finnas ett samband mellan styrelsens sammansättning och vinstutdelningens storlek för svenska large cap- bolag. Resultatet indikerar att både styrelsestorlek och andel kvinnliga styrelseledamöter har en positiv påverkan på bolagens vinstutdelning. Resultatet indikerade också att styrelsens oberoende och aktieinnehav samt dualitet har en negativ påverkan på bolagens vinstutdelning. Vidare har styrelsens ämbetstid ingen signifikant relation till bolagens vinstutdelning. Studiens resultat tenderar att kunna förklaras utifrån Principal agentteorin, då många av variablerna påvisade relationer som förväntas i enlighet med denna teori. Avslutningsvis kan dessa resultat vara av intresse för investerare, lagstiftare och svenska bolag.