Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / The study uses dominant trees to describe the tinning, because they are those that possess larger energy inside of a forest settlement. The main objective of the work is to model and to select models to describe the relationship among the potential number of trees for hectare in function of the dominant height, elaborating a system of curves guides how to aid in the determination of the tinning. The municipal and districts where are located the forests are: Cambará do Sul (RS), São Francisco de Paula (RS), Distrito de Tainhas (RS), Distrito dos Kroeff (RS), Bocaína do Sul (SC), Correia Pinto (SC), Curitibanos (SC), Lages (SC), Otacílio Costa (SC), Ponte Alta do Norte (SC) and Santa Cecília (SC). The units temporary sample random were installed using the Method of modified Prodan, or be, 12 trees were measured by unit sample being the center of the unit the dominant tree of the sample. The units were installed at forests in competition from 5 to 40 meters of dominant height. In those units they were measured: the distance of the 11 trees to the central dominant tree; diameter and the height of the 12 trees; the crown diameter, the length of total crown and the exposed crown length to the light of the 2 dominant trees of the sample. The calculated variables were the number of potential trees for hectare, the Index of relative spacing, the crown percentage and the index of competition of Glover and Hool. The modelling made calculations by the statistical package (Statistical Analysis System) version 8.0 and the adjustment of the equations and covariance analysis for the procedure GLM ( General Lineal Models). The equations that best describes the potential number of trees for hectare were Ln(Np) = 10,31285 - 1,28518*(ln(hdom) with a R²aj 0,68 and CV of 4,76% for the class of S'% of 14-20% and Ln(Np) = 10,36304 - 1,16938*(ln(hdom) with a R²aj 0,34 and CV of 5,24% for the class of S'% of 14-20%. The use of the dominant height as independent variable is efficient to describe the guidelines for tinning in the settlements of Pinus taeda. The model of negative exponential regression adjusts with good precision and low mistake the relationship among the potential number of trees for hectare and the dominant height. The variation of the values of potential frequency for hectare for a given dominant height is strongly reduced with the bedding of the data in classes of Index of relative spacing of Hart Becking larger than 14% and smaller than 14% allowing to elaborate frequency curves for hectare for those two situations. The development of the frequency curves stratified by Index of relative spacing influences in the dimension of the diameter of the trees for a same dominant height. / O estudo utiliza árvores dominantes para descrever o desbaste, pois são aquelas que possuem maior vigor dentro de um povoamento florestal. O principal objetivo do trabalho é modelar e selecionar modelos para descrever a relação entre o número potencial de árvores por hectare em função da altura dominante, elaborando um sistema de curvas guias como auxiliar na determinação do desbaste. Os municípios e distritos onde estão localizadas as florestas são: Cambará do Sul (RS), São Francisco de Paula (RS), Distrito de Tainhas (RS), Distrito dos Kroeff (RS), Bocaína do Sul (SC), Correia Pinto (SC), Curitibanos (SC), Lages (SC), Otacílio Costa (SC), Ponte Alta do Norte (SC) e Santa Cecília (SC). As unidades amostrais temporárias foram instaladas aleatoriamente utilizando o Método de Prodan modificado, ou seja, foram medidas 12 árvores por unidade amostral sendo o centro da unidade a árvore dominante da amostra. As unidades foram instaladas em florestas em competição de 5 a 40 metros de altura dominante. Nessas unidades foram medidas: a distância das 11 árvores até a árvore dominante central; o DAP e a altura das 12 árvores; o diâmetro de copa, o comprimento de copa total e o comprimento de copa exposto à luz das 2 árvores dominantes da amostra. As variáveis calculadas foram o número de árvores potenciais por hectare, o Índice de espaçamento relativo, a percentagem de copa e o índice de concorrência de Glover e Hool. A modelagem foi calculada pelo pacote estatístico SAS (Statistical Analysis System) versão 8.0 e o ajuste das equações e análise de covariância pelo procedimento GLM (General Linear Models). As equações que melhor descrevem o número potencial de árvores por hectare foram Ln(Np) = 10,31285 1,28518*(ln(hdom) com um R²aj de 0,68 e CV de 4,76% para a classe de S % de 14 20% e Ln(Np) = 10,36304 1,16938*(ln(hdom) com um R²aj de 0,34 e CV de 5,24% para a classe de S % de 14 20%. O uso da altura dominante como variável independente é eficiente para descrever as diretrizes para desbaste nos povoamentos de Pinus taeda. O modelo de regressão exponencial negativo ajusta com boa precisão e baixo erro a relação entre o número potencial de árvores por hectare e a altura dominante. A variação dos valores de freqüência potencial por hectare para uma dada altura dominante é fortemente reduzida com a estratificação dos dados em classes de Índice de espaçamento relativo de Hart Becking maior do que 14% e menor do que 14% permitindo elaborar curvas de freqüência por hectare para essas duas situações. O desenvolvimento das curvas de freqüência estratificado por Índice de espaçamento relativo influi na dimensão do diâmetro das árvores para uma mesma altura dominante.

The use of techniques for determining the productive capacity of a forest site depends on its sensitivity to evaluate or to predict the interaction between the genetic factors of the species and the environment (climate, soil, physiography). This work was developed in the southern part of Rio Grande do Sul state and aimed to evaluate the influence of soil properties in different soil classes, with the production capacity by the dominant height (h100) for Eucalyptus saligna (clone 32864) and seminal plantations of Eucalyptus dunnii. Thus, we selected 16 inventory plots based on genetic material and dendrometric variables as the dominant height (h100), mean annual increment (MAI), volume of wood with bark (m3/ ha-1) designed for seven years. Form these 16 plots, nine plots were E. dunnii and seven plots were E. Saligna. In each selected site trenches were opened to classify the soil, to collect soil samples for chemical (pH, MO, Ca, Mg, Al, P, S, K, Zn, Cu, B, CTC,ph7, V) and physical analysis ( particle size, particle density and soil porosity, macro and microporosity, soil water retention curve , saturated hydraulic conductivity) and to collect litter. Profiles/plots showed variations in soil classes, site index, source material, morphological, chemical and physical soil characteristics and amount of litter. We analyzed four classes of representative soils of the study region: Argissolos (PVe, PVd, PBACd, PBACe, PAd), Neossolos (RRd), Luvissolos (TCo) and Cambissolos (CXbd). The dominant height (h100) showed a minimum height of 22.9 m ( Profile 13 - RRd) and maximum height of 29.3 m (Profile 10-TCo) for E. dunnii and for the clone E. saligna the IS showed a minimum height of 22.4 m (Profile 11- PAd) and maximum of 28.7 m (Profile 16-PVe). The statistical analysis between dominant height (h100) and the physical, chemical and morphological soil characteristics was performed by the use of multiple regression analysis, which aimed to verify the significance of the input variables to determine the dominant height. The equations that best correlated the dominant height to soil attributes were derived from the layers 10-20 cm and 60-80 cm when were considered both genetic materials. However, when genetic materials were evaluated separately the equations that best correlated the dominant height to soil attributes were derived from the layers 10-20 cm and 20-40 cm for E. dunnii, and from the layers 40 - 60 cm and 60 - 80 cm for clone E. saligna, which shows the different relations between the genetic material and the analyzed soil profiles. The depth of the A + B horizons, the silt, the organic matter and the concentration of boron, potassium and calcium were the attributes that gave the highest contribution in the models to explain the productive capacity of the profiles analyzed by dominant height. / O emprego de técnicas para determinação da capacidade produtiva de um sítio florestal depende de sua sensibilidade para avaliar ou prever a interação entre os fatores genéticos da espécie e o ambiente (clima, solo, fisiografia). O presente trabalho desenvolvido na região da Metade Sul do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul teve como objetivo avaliar a influência dos atributos do solo, em diferentes classes de solo, com a capacidade produtiva através da altura dominante (h100) o Eucalyptus saligna (clone 32864) e plantios seminais de Eucalyptus dunnii. Desta forma, selecionaram-se 16 parcelas de inventário florestal com base no material genético e variáveis dendrométricas como a altura dominante (h100), incremento médio anual (IMA) e volume de madeira com casca (m3/ha-1) projetados para os sete anos, sendo 9 parcelas de E. dunnii e 7 parcelas de E. Saligna. Em cada sítio selecionado abriu-se trincheiras para classificação do solo, coleta de amostras para análises químicas (pH, MO, Ca, Mg, Al, P, S, K, Zn, Cu, B, CTC ph7, V) físicas (granulometria, densidade de partícula e do solo, porosidade total, macro e microporosidade, curva de retenção de água no solo, condutividade hidráulica saturada) e coleta de serapilheira. Os perfis/parcelas apresentaram variações quanto as classes de solos, altura dominante, índice de sítio, material de origem, características morfológicas, químicas e físicas do solo e quantidade de serapilheira. Foram analisadas 4 classes de solos representativas da região do estudo: Argissolos (PVe, PVd, PBACd, PBACe, PAd), Neossolos (RRd), Luvissolos (TCo) e Cambissolo (CXbd). A altura dominante (h100) apresenta altura mínima de 22,9 m (Perfil 13 - RRd ) e máxima de 29,3 m (Perfil 10 -TCo) para E. dunnii e para o clone E. saligna o IS apresenta altura mínima de 22,4 m (Perfil 11 - PAd) e 28,7 m (Perfil 16 - PVe). A análise estatística entre altura dominante (h100) e os atributos físicos, químicos e morfológicos do solo foi realizada através do emprego da análise de regressão múltipla buscando-se verificar a significância das variáveis de entrada para determinação da altura dominate. As equações que melhor relacionaram a altura dominante (h100) com os atributos do solo foram as oriundas das camadas de 10 a 20 cm e da camada de 60 a 80 cm quando considerados os dois materiais genéticos. Entretanto, quando os materiais genéticos foram avaliados separadamente as equações que melhor relacionaram o índice de sítio com os atributos do solo foram as equações oriundas das camadas de 10 a 20 cm e 20 a 40 cm para E. dunnii, 40 a 60 cm e 60 a 80 cm para o clone de E. saligna, evidenciando relações distintas entre os materiais genéticos e o solo nos perfis analisados. A profundidade dos horizontes A+B, o silte, a matéria orgânica e os teores de boro, de potássio e cálcio foram os atributos que mais contribuíram nos modelos para explicar a capacidade produtiva nos perfis analisados através da altura dominante (h100).

The interest in renewables for energy has increased in the last 2-3 decades because of the negative environmental impact caused by the burning of fossil fuels, the raising prices of traditional fuels, the dependence on foreign oil, and the decrease in fossil fuels resources. Biomass energy represents one of the most promising alternatives. Many studies worldwide were devoted to investigate growth and yield of short rotation forestry plantations for energetic use and several empirical and process-based models were developed to predict the potential production of biomass. The current work was concentrated on modelling site productivity (potential of biomass production) of specific poplar clones planted on arable Saxon land under different stocking densities. Empirical data collected from several experimental areas were used. Site productivity has been predicted depending on stand age and site variables using a two-step model. In step one age and site variables were used to model stand dominant height and in step two the constructed dominant height was involved with stocking density to predict stand oven dried biomass. Depending on data availability the model was parameterized for four different groups of poplar clones: Androscoggin (clone Androscoggin), Matrix (Matrix and hybrid 275), Max (Max 1 …Max 5) and Münden (clone Münden). Both stand dominant height and stand dry biomass were modelled for ages 2 – 9 years for clone groups: Matrix and Max and for ages 2 – 7 years for clone groups: Androscoggin and Münden. The model has been tested and validated using several statistical and graphical methods. The relative bias (ē %) in the dominant height estimates ranged between 0.5 % > ē % > - 0.5 % in all clone groups and had a maximum bias of 10.41 % in stand biomass estimates. Model accuracy (mx %) in the dominant height estimates ranged between 12.25 and 17.56 % and between 8.05 and 27.32 % in stand biomass estimates. Two different scenarios were presented to show the potential of biomass that can be produced from poplar plantations on arable and former fallow Saxon lands at different stocking densities. ArcGIS has been used to visualize model application results. In order to produce a mean annual increment ≥ 8 [dry t/ha/a] from poplar plantations (Max group) for more than 50 % of arable or former fallow lands in the first rotation at least 9 years are required under stocking density of 4000 stems/ha and 7 years for both stocking densities 8333 and 10,000 stems/ha. / Die Nachfrage nach Holz für energetische Zwecke nimmt in Deutschland und ganz Europa zu. Um diesen Bedarf künftig besser befriedigen zu können, müssen verstärkt Ressourcen aus verschiedenen Quellen wie z. B. Holz aus Niederwäldern oder Durchforstungsreserven im Hochwald mobilisiert und ergänzend Holz in Kurzumtriebsflächen produziert werden (Guericke, M. 2006). Ziel dieser Arbeit war es, das Ertragspotential von Pappelklonen in Kurzumtriebsplantagen unterschiedlicher Baumdichte auf sächsischen Ackerflächen zu untersuchen. Hierzu wurden die potentiellen Erträge anhand empirischer, auf verschiedenen Versuchsflächen erhobener Daten modelliert. Zur Schätzung des Ertragspotentials wurde ein zweistufiges Modell entwickelt: Im ersten Schritt erfolgte die Modellierung der Oberhöhe eines Bestandes (ho, m) in Abhängigkeit von Bestandesalter und Standortfaktoren unter Verwendung einer multiplen linearen Regressionsanalyse, dabei wurden Bestimmtheitsmaße (R²) von 0,975 bis 0,989 erreicht. In einem zweiten Schritt lässt sich dann der Biomassevorrat [tatro/ha/a] mittels nichtlinearer Regressionsanalyse durch die Bestandesoberhöhe schätzen. Das Bestimmtheitsmaß von R² ≥ 0,933 weist auch hier auf eine hohe Anpassungsgüte hin. Die Modellparametrisierung erfolgte für folgende vier Gruppen von Pappelklonen: • Max-Gruppe: Klone Max 1, Max 2, Max 3, Max 4 und Max 5, Altersbereich 2 – 9 Jahre, Baumdichten von 1150 – 13000 Stämmen/ha; • Matrix-Gruppe: Klon Matrix und Hybride 275, Altersbereich 2 – 9 Jahre, Baumdichte 1550 Stämme/ha; • Androscoggin-Gruppe: Klon Androscoggin, Altersbereich 2 – 7 Jahre, Baumdichte 1550 Stämme/ha; und • Münden-Gruppe: Klon Münden, Altersbereich 2 – 7 Jahre, Baumdichte 1550 Stämme/ha. Die Güte des Modells wurde mit Hilfe verschiedener statistischer Verfahren überprüft. Bei der Validierung anhand des Datensatzes, welcher für die Modellkonstruktion Verwendung fand, zeigte das Modell eine Verzerrung bzw. einen Bias von 0,5 % > ē % > - 0,5 % bei der Bestandesoberhöhenschätzung und einen maximalen Bias von 10,41 % bei der Schätzung der Bestandesbiomasse. Die Treffgenauigkeit (mx %) des Modells hingegen variierte zwischen 12,25 % und 17,56 % bzw. 8,05 und 27,32 % (bei Schätzung der Bestandesoberhöhe bzw. der Bestandesbiomasse). Zudem wies das Modell keinen systematischen Fehler zwischen den geschätzten und den realen Werten auf. Bei der Validierung mit einem unabhängigen Datensatz betrug die Treffgenauigkeit (mx %) für die Schätzung der Bestandsoberhöhe und des Biomassevorrates 15,72 bzw. 26,68 %. Um das Ertragspotenzial von Pappelplantagen für die gesamte sächsische Ackerfläche bzw. die gesamte ehemalige Stilllegungsfläche zu bestimmen, wurden die zu Schätzung erforderlichen Standortvariablen auf Gemeindebasis kalkuliert, mittels ArcGIS dargestellt sowie Simulationsrechungen für verschiedene Bestandsdichten vorgenommen und ebenfalls visualisiert. Den Ergebnissen der Simulationsrechnungen zufolge wäre bei einer Stammzahl von 4000 N/ha eine Rotationslänge von 9 Jahren, bei 8333 bis 10.000 N/ha von 7 Jahren erforderlich, um einen durchschnittlichen Gesamtzuwachs (dGz) von ≥ 8 [tatro/ha/a] auf mehr als 50 % der sächsischen Ackerflächen bzw. ehemaligen Stilllegungsflächen in erster Rotation zu erreichen. Würde die gesamte ehemalige sächsische Stilllegungsfläche mit einer Baumdichte von 10.000 Stämmen/ha bepflanzt werden, könnten Pappelplantagen im Alter 9 einen dGz von 520.000 [tatro/a] (entsprechend 250.000 Kubikmeter Diesel) erreichen. Bei Bestockung aller sächsischen Ackerflächen würde sich der Ertrag auf bis zu 9.087.000 [tatro/a] (entsprechend 4.367.000 Kubikmeter Diesel) erhöhen.

Thesis (MScFor)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Site Index is used extensively in modern commercial forestry both as an indicator of current and future site potential, but also as a means of site comparison. The concept is deeply embedded into current forest planning processes, and without it empirical growth and yield modelling would not function in its present form. Most commercial forestry companies in South Africa currently spend hundreds of thousands of Rand annually collecting growth stock data via inventory, but spend little or no money on the default compartment data (specifically Site Index) which is used to estimate over 90% of the product volumes in their long term plans. A need exists to construct reliable methods to determine Site Index for sites which have not been physically measured (the socalled "default", or indirect Site Index). Most previous attempts to model Site Index have used multiple linear regression as the model, alternative methods have been explored in this thesis: Regression tree analysis, random forest analysis, hybrid or model trees, multiple linear regression, and multiple linear regression using regression trees to identify the variables. Regression tree analysis proves to be ideally suited to this type of data, and a generic model with only three site variables was able to capture 49.44 % of the variation in Site Index. Further localisation of the model could prove to be commercially useful. One of the key assumptions associated with Site Index, that it is unaffected by initial planting density, was tested using linear mixed effects modelling. The results show that there may well be role played by initial stocking in some species (notably E. dunnii and E. nitens), and that further work may be warranted. It was also shown that early measurement of dominant height results in poor estimates of Site Index, which will have a direct impact on inventory policies and on data to be included in Site Index modelling studies. This thesis is divided into six chapters: Chapter 1 contains a description of the concept of Site Index and it's origins, as well as, how the concept is used within the current forest planning processes. Chapter 2 contains an analysis on the influence of initial planted density on the estimate of Site Index. Chapter 3 explores the question of whether the age at which dominant height is measured has any effect on the quality of Site Index estimates. Chapter 4 looks at various modelling methodologies and compares the resultant models. Chapter 5 contains conclusions and recommendations for further study, and finally Chapter 6 discusses how any new Site Index model will effect the current planning protocol. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hedendaagse kommersiële bosbou gebruik groeiplek indeks (Site Index) as 'n aanduiding van huidige en toekomstige groeiplek moontlikhede, asook 'n metode om groeiplekke te vergelyk. Hierdie beginsel is diep gewortel in bestaande beplanningsprosesse en daarsonder kan empiriese groeien opbrengsmodelle nie in hul huidige vorm funksioneer nie. SuidAfrikaanse bosboumaatskappye bestee jaarliks groot bedrae geld aan die versameling van groeivoorraad data deur middel van opnames, maar weinig of geen geld word aangewend vir die insameling van ongemete vak data (veral groeiplek indeks) nie. Ongemete vak data word gebuik om meer as 90% van die produksie volume te beraam in langtermyn beplaning. 'n Behoefte bestaan om betroubare metodes te ontwikkel om groeiplek indeks te bereken vir groeiplekke wat nog nie opgemeet is nie. Die meeste vorige pogings om groeiplek indeks te beraam het meervoudige linêre regressie as model gebruik. Alternatiewe metodes is ondersoek; naamlik regressieboom analise, ewekansige woud analise, hibriedeof modelbome, meervoudige linêre regressie en meervoudige linêre regressie waarin die veranderlike faktore bepaal is deur regressiebome. Regressieboom analise blyk geskik te wees vir hierdie tipe data en 'n veralgemeende model met slegs drie groeiplek veranderlikes dek 49.44 % van die variasie in groeiplek indeks. Verdere lokalisering van die model kan dus van kommersiële waarde wees. 'n Sleutel aanname is gemaak dat aanvanklike plantdigtheid nie 'n invloed op groeiplek indeks het nie. Hierdie aanname is getoets deur linêre gemengde uitwerkings modelle. Die toetsuitslag dui op 'n moontlikheid dat plantdigtheid wel 'n invloed het op sommige spesies (vernaamlik E. dunnii en E. nitens) en verdere navorsing kan daarom geregverdig word. Dit is ook bewys dat metings van jonger bome vir dominante hoogtes gee aanleiding tot swak beramings van groeiplek indekse. Gevolglik sal hierdie toestsuitslag groeivoorraad opname beleid, asook die data wat vir groeiplek indeks modellering gebruik word, beïnvloed. Hierdie tesis word in ses hoofstukke onderverdeel. Hoofstuk een bevat 'n beskrywing van die beginsel van groeiplek indeks, die oorsprong daarvan, asook hoe die beginsel tans in huidige bosbou beplannings prosesse toegepas word. Hoofstuk twee bestaan uit ń ontleding van die invloed van aanvanklike plantdigtheid op die beraming van groeplek indeks. In hoofstuk drie word ondersoek wat die moontlike invloed is van die ouderdom waarop metings vir dominante hoogte geneem word, op die kwaliteit van groeplek indeks beramings het. Hoofstuk vier verken verskeie modelle metodologieë en vergelyk die uitslaggewende modelle. Hoofstuk vyf bevat gevolgtrekkings en voorstelle vir verdere studies. Afsluitend, is hoofstuk ses ń bespreking van hoe enige nuwe groeiplek indeks modelle die huidige beplannings protokol kan beïnvloed.

The interest in renewables for energy has increased in the last 2-3 decades because of the negative environmental impact caused by the burning of fossil fuels, the raising prices of traditional fuels, the dependence on foreign oil, and the decrease in fossil fuels resources. Biomass energy represents one of the most promising alternatives. Many studies worldwide were devoted to investigate growth and yield of short rotation forestry plantations for energetic use and several empirical and process-based models were developed to predict the potential production of biomass. The current work was concentrated on modelling site productivity (potential of biomass production) of specific poplar clones planted on arable Saxon land under different stocking densities. Empirical data collected from several experimental areas were used. Site productivity has been predicted depending on stand age and site variables using a two-step model. In step one age and site variables were used to model stand dominant height and in step two the constructed dominant height was involved with stocking density to predict stand oven dried biomass. Depending on data availability the model was parameterized for four different groups of poplar clones: Androscoggin (clone Androscoggin), Matrix (Matrix and hybrid 275), Max (Max 1 …Max 5) and Münden (clone Münden). Both stand dominant height and stand dry biomass were modelled for ages 2 – 9 years for clone groups: Matrix and Max and for ages 2 – 7 years for clone groups: Androscoggin and Münden. The model has been tested and validated using several statistical and graphical methods. The relative bias (ē %) in the dominant height estimates ranged between 0.5 % > ē % > - 0.5 % in all clone groups and had a maximum bias of 10.41 % in stand biomass estimates. Model accuracy (mx %) in the dominant height estimates ranged between 12.25 and 17.56 % and between 8.05 and 27.32 % in stand biomass estimates. Two different scenarios were presented to show the potential of biomass that can be produced from poplar plantations on arable and former fallow Saxon lands at different stocking densities. ArcGIS has been used to visualize model application results. In order to produce a mean annual increment ≥ 8 [dry t/ha/a] from poplar plantations (Max group) for more than 50 % of arable or former fallow lands in the first rotation at least 9 years are required under stocking density of 4000 stems/ha and 7 years for both stocking densities 8333 and 10,000 stems/ha. / Die Nachfrage nach Holz für energetische Zwecke nimmt in Deutschland und ganz Europa zu. Um diesen Bedarf künftig besser befriedigen zu können, müssen verstärkt Ressourcen aus verschiedenen Quellen wie z. B. Holz aus Niederwäldern oder Durchforstungsreserven im Hochwald mobilisiert und ergänzend Holz in Kurzumtriebsflächen produziert werden (Guericke, M. 2006). Ziel dieser Arbeit war es, das Ertragspotential von Pappelklonen in Kurzumtriebsplantagen unterschiedlicher Baumdichte auf sächsischen Ackerflächen zu untersuchen. Hierzu wurden die potentiellen Erträge anhand empirischer, auf verschiedenen Versuchsflächen erhobener Daten modelliert. Zur Schätzung des Ertragspotentials wurde ein zweistufiges Modell entwickelt: Im ersten Schritt erfolgte die Modellierung der Oberhöhe eines Bestandes (ho, m) in Abhängigkeit von Bestandesalter und Standortfaktoren unter Verwendung einer multiplen linearen Regressionsanalyse, dabei wurden Bestimmtheitsmaße (R²) von 0,975 bis 0,989 erreicht. In einem zweiten Schritt lässt sich dann der Biomassevorrat [tatro/ha/a] mittels nichtlinearer Regressionsanalyse durch die Bestandesoberhöhe schätzen. Das Bestimmtheitsmaß von R² ≥ 0,933 weist auch hier auf eine hohe Anpassungsgüte hin. Die Modellparametrisierung erfolgte für folgende vier Gruppen von Pappelklonen: • Max-Gruppe: Klone Max 1, Max 2, Max 3, Max 4 und Max 5, Altersbereich 2 – 9 Jahre, Baumdichten von 1150 – 13000 Stämmen/ha; • Matrix-Gruppe: Klon Matrix und Hybride 275, Altersbereich 2 – 9 Jahre, Baumdichte 1550 Stämme/ha; • Androscoggin-Gruppe: Klon Androscoggin, Altersbereich 2 – 7 Jahre, Baumdichte 1550 Stämme/ha; und • Münden-Gruppe: Klon Münden, Altersbereich 2 – 7 Jahre, Baumdichte 1550 Stämme/ha. Die Güte des Modells wurde mit Hilfe verschiedener statistischer Verfahren überprüft. Bei der Validierung anhand des Datensatzes, welcher für die Modellkonstruktion Verwendung fand, zeigte das Modell eine Verzerrung bzw. einen Bias von 0,5 % > ē % > - 0,5 % bei der Bestandesoberhöhenschätzung und einen maximalen Bias von 10,41 % bei der Schätzung der Bestandesbiomasse. Die Treffgenauigkeit (mx %) des Modells hingegen variierte zwischen 12,25 % und 17,56 % bzw. 8,05 und 27,32 % (bei Schätzung der Bestandesoberhöhe bzw. der Bestandesbiomasse). Zudem wies das Modell keinen systematischen Fehler zwischen den geschätzten und den realen Werten auf. Bei der Validierung mit einem unabhängigen Datensatz betrug die Treffgenauigkeit (mx %) für die Schätzung der Bestandsoberhöhe und des Biomassevorrates 15,72 bzw. 26,68 %. Um das Ertragspotenzial von Pappelplantagen für die gesamte sächsische Ackerfläche bzw. die gesamte ehemalige Stilllegungsfläche zu bestimmen, wurden die zu Schätzung erforderlichen Standortvariablen auf Gemeindebasis kalkuliert, mittels ArcGIS dargestellt sowie Simulationsrechungen für verschiedene Bestandsdichten vorgenommen und ebenfalls visualisiert. Den Ergebnissen der Simulationsrechnungen zufolge wäre bei einer Stammzahl von 4000 N/ha eine Rotationslänge von 9 Jahren, bei 8333 bis 10.000 N/ha von 7 Jahren erforderlich, um einen durchschnittlichen Gesamtzuwachs (dGz) von ≥ 8 [tatro/ha/a] auf mehr als 50 % der sächsischen Ackerflächen bzw. ehemaligen Stilllegungsflächen in erster Rotation zu erreichen. Würde die gesamte ehemalige sächsische Stilllegungsfläche mit einer Baumdichte von 10.000 Stämmen/ha bepflanzt werden, könnten Pappelplantagen im Alter 9 einen dGz von 520.000 [tatro/a] (entsprechend 250.000 Kubikmeter Diesel) erreichen. Bei Bestockung aller sächsischen Ackerflächen würde sich der Ertrag auf bis zu 9.087.000 [tatro/a] (entsprechend 4.367.000 Kubikmeter Diesel) erhöhen.