Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:52:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lygia Nunes Rotondi de Azevedo.pdf: 1084822 bytes, checksum: 7d468b0614c8697f55e0b9b473b8d31e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-26 / The industry has always played a prominent role in the economic development debate of Latin American countries. However, since the 1980s, the industry has been demonstrating signs that it may be losing space as inducer of this process, indicating a possible movement in the opposite direction. This research verifies the hypothesis of premature deindustrialization in Latin America, considering as a starting point the Coutts & Rowthorn article, which analyzed the same phenomenon in developed countries. This study begins by reviewing the economic literature on the subject, pointing out the major discussions on the theme, along with theoretical aspects related to this topic. An econometric model using panel data of 8 selected Latin American countries was considered, covering the period between 1986 and 2005, to verify the possible existence of this phenomenon. If it is confirmed, we will analyze their causes and conditions. To do so, in the model we will test variables different from those used in the reference work, to capture the peculiarities of the studied region, without losing the robustness and explanatory power of the original study. With this analysis, we intend to contribute in identifying alternatives to overcome the obstacles that still disrupts the Latin American countries from moving forward on the economic development path / A indústria sempre ocupou um papel de destaque no debate sobre o desenvolvimento econômico dos países latino-americanos. Entretanto, a partir da década de 1980, a indústria começa a dar sinais de que pode estar perdendo espaço como agente indutor desse processo, indicando um possível movimento no sentido oposto. Este trabalho verifica a hipótese de desindustrialização precoce na América Latina, tendo como ponto de partida o trabalho de Rowthorn & Coutts, que analisou o mesmo fenômeno nos países desenvolvidos. O estudo começa fazendo uma revisão da literatura econômica sobre o tema apontando os principais trabalhos já realizados acerca do assunto, bem como aspectos teóricos que serão desenvolvidos no decorrer da pesquisa. Foi utilizado um modelo econométrico de dados em painel de 8 países latino-americanos selecionados, cobrindo o período entre 1986 e 2005. Além de verificar a possível existência desse fenômeno, esse, em se confirmando, buscar-se-á apontar suas causas e condicionantes. Para tanto, no modelo serão testadas outras variáveis, diferentes das usadas no trabalho-referência, de modo a captar as peculiaridades da região estudada, sem com isso perder a robustez e capacidade explicativa do estudo original. Com isso, pretende-se contribuir para o debate que busca apontar saídas no sentido de superar os obstáculos que ainda os impedem os países da América Latina de avançar no caminho do desenvolvimento econômico

In my diploma thesis I compare European and Asian approach to African continent. In the first chapter natural resources and strategic position of Africa is described. I deal with traditional business relationships with African partner, political relation, their agriculture production and tourism in Africa. In this chapter I apply Leamer's triangle, Dutch disease and terms of trade on relationship between African countries and their business partners. Second chapter analyzes factors which influence interests for cooperation between European and African countries. In the second half of this chapter I try to show how Africa sees European and Asian countries. I deal mainly with relationship between European and African integration, using the theory of the effects of economic blocs. In the last chapter I compare the approach of the European Union and Asian countries to Africa.

As the public becomes more concerned with the natural environment, one of the major topics discussed is the oil. Since there is no true source of knowledge how long the oil can continue to be extracted, it is interesting to know how long the world can benefit from such as scarce resource. Instead of idly watching as oil production decreases with time, which pre-measures could be taken in order to minimize a negative impact on an economy? The UAE is a thriving oil rich countries which for the past 30 years have experienced a vast oil wealth. Even though the oil gave wealth to the UAE, they should avoid any future oil dependency since it could negatively affect its now flourishing economy. Therefore, for the UAE to continue growing in the future it is in the best interest for the government to focus on a diversifying strategy that promotes the non-oil economy. By referring to concepts and theories of previous research in this field such as the Solow growth model, Resource curse and Dutch disease the authors find that the UAE had managed to diversify or not. Three sectors in different periods between 1970 and 2007 were measured: The oil sector, the non-oil sector and the government sector. Diversification changes means a decreasing dependency of the oil sector to the non-oil sector while the latter instead depends more on the government sector. Using British Petroleum (2008) and United Nations (2008) as sources, data was collected in order to draw a time-series regression analysis and test empirically for these diversification trends. The results for all periods confirmed that the UAE have indeed diversified and it could thus be observed that it started its successful strategy already in the 1970s. With the right government policy investments and the stability in the union, the UAE prevented from becoming dependent on oil and thereby not crowding out its important non-oil economy. / Med en ökad allmän medvetenhet angående naturmiljön så är oljan bland det mest omtalande temat. Eftersom inget vet exakt hur länge oljan kan utvinnas, är det intressant att veta hur länge världen kan förlita sig på en sådan begränsad resurs. Finns det förebyggande medel för att minska en negativ verkan på ekonomin istället för att passivt bevittna en sjunkande oljeproduktion? Förenta Arabemiraten (FAE) är en framgångsrik union som under de senaste 30 åren har åtnjutit en omfattande oljerikedom. Trots att oljan lade grunden för tillväxten i FAE, så börs unionen undvika sitt oljeberoende eftersom den negativt kan påverka den nuvarande blomstrande ekonomin. Således, för att bibehålla tillväxten i FAE för framtiden, borde det vara i statens största intresse att fokusera på en differentierings-strategi som främjar icke-oljans ekonomi. För att veta om FAE faktiskt har differentierat sig eller inte, används koncept och teorier för tidigare forskning kring områdets som t.ex. Solows tillväxtmodel, Resursförbannelsen och holländska sjukan. Tre sektorer mättes i olika perioder mellan 1970-2007: oljesektorn, icke-sektorn och statssektorn. Icke-olje sektorn förväntas minska oljeberoendet samt öka beroendet av statssektorn vilket resulterar i en differentieringstrend i ekonomin. Genom källor från British Petroleum (2008) och Förenta Nationerna (2008)  har data insamlats för att empiriskt testa en tidsserie regression och se förändringar mellan sektorerna. Under alla perioder i FAE blev en differentieringstrend bekräftad och man kunde därför se att denna framgångsrika strategi redan åtogs i 1970-talet. Med effektiva investeringar i den offentliga sektorn samt en hållbar stabilitet i unionen, undvek FAE ett oljeberoende och därmed främjade icke-olje ekonomin.

Since the adoption of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Canadian dollar has come to be regarded as a petro-currency. Consequently, rising prices of oil and gas (as well as other natural resources) would increase capital inflows that would lead to a higher exchange rate and contribute to the decimation of the export-oriented Canadian manufacturing sector by making Canadian products less competitive internationally. Some have argued that the Canadian economy has started to show symptoms related to the Dutch Disease. One important symptom is the slow rate of productivity growth, which consequently leads to the theory that Canada’s productivity performance depends significantly on the foreign exchange value of the domestic currency. This dissertation attempts to address these issues and seeks to solve the question of whether the Canadian economy is suffering from the Dutch Disease, as well as whether or not movements of the Canadian dollar are responsible for the low Canadian productivity growth since the 1990s.

<p><strong>As the public becomes more concerned with the natural environment, one of the major topics discussed is the oil. Since there is no true source of knowledge how long the oil can continue to be extracted, it is interesting to know how long the world can benefit from such as scarce resource. Instead of idly watching as oil production decreases with time, which pre-measures could be taken in order to minimize a negative impact on an economy? The UAE is a thriving oil rich countries which for the past 30 years have experienced a vast oil wealth. Even though the oil gave wealth to the UAE, they should avoid any future oil dependency since it could negatively affect its now flourishing economy. Therefore, for the UAE to continue growing in the future it is in the best interest for the government to focus on a diversifying strategy that promotes the non-oil economy. By referring to concepts and theories of previous research in this field such as the Solow growth model, Resource curse and Dutch disease the authors find that the UAE had managed to diversify or not. Three sectors in different periods between 1970 and 2007 were measured: The oil sector, the non-oil sector and the government sector. Diversification changes means a decreasing dependency of the oil sector to the non-oil sector while the latter instead depends more on the government sector. Using British Petroleum (2008) and United Nations (2008) as sources, data was collected in order to draw a time-series regression analysis and test empirically for these diversification trends. The results for all periods confirmed that the UAE have indeed diversified and it could thus be observed that it started its successful strategy already in the 1970s. With the right government policy investments and the stability in the union, the UAE prevented from becoming dependent on oil and thereby not crowding out its important non-oil economy. </strong></p> / <p><strong>Med en ökad allmän medvetenhet angående naturmiljön så är oljan bland det mest omtalande temat. Eftersom inget vet exakt hur länge oljan kan utvinnas, är det intressant att veta hur länge världen kan förlita sig på en sådan begränsad resurs. Finns det förebyggande medel för att minska en negativ verkan på ekonomin istället för att passivt bevittna en sjunkande oljeproduktion? Förenta Arabemiraten (FAE) är en framgångsrik union som under de senaste 30 åren har åtnjutit en omfattande oljerikedom. Trots att oljan lade grunden för tillväxten i FAE, så börs unionen undvika sitt oljeberoende eftersom den negativt kan påverka den nuvarande blomstrande ekonomin. Således, för att bibehålla tillväxten i FAE för framtiden, borde det vara i statens största intresse att fokusera på en differentierings-strategi som främjar icke-oljans ekonomi. För att veta om FAE faktiskt har differentierat sig eller inte, används koncept och teorier för tidigare forskning kring områdets som t.ex. Solows tillväxtmodel, Resursförbannelsen och holländska sjukan. Tre sektorer mättes i olika perioder mellan 1970-2007: oljesektorn, icke-sektorn och statssektorn. Icke-olje sektorn förväntas minska oljeberoendet samt öka beroendet av statssektorn vilket resulterar i en differentieringstrend i ekonomin. Genom källor från British Petroleum (2008) och Förenta Nationerna (2008)  har data insamlats för att empiriskt testa en tidsserie regression och se förändringar mellan sektorerna. Under alla perioder i FAE blev en differentieringstrend bekräftad och man kunde därför se att denna framgångsrika strategi redan åtogs i 1970-talet. Med effektiva investeringar i den offentliga sektorn samt en hållbar stabilitet i unionen, undvek FAE ett oljeberoende och därmed främjade icke-olje ekonomin.</strong><strong></strong></p>

Since the adoption of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Canadian dollar has come to be regarded as a petro-currency. Consequently, rising prices of oil and gas (as well as other natural resources) would increase capital inflows that would lead to a higher exchange rate and contribute to the decimation of the export-oriented Canadian manufacturing sector by making Canadian products less competitive internationally. Some have argued that the Canadian economy has started to show symptoms related to the Dutch Disease. One important symptom is the slow rate of productivity growth, which consequently leads to the theory that Canada’s productivity performance depends significantly on the foreign exchange value of the domestic currency. This dissertation attempts to address these issues and seeks to solve the question of whether the Canadian economy is suffering from the Dutch Disease, as well as whether or not movements of the Canadian dollar are responsible for the low Canadian productivity growth since the 1990s.

Submitted by Pedro Caratori (pedrocaratori@gmail.com) on 2012-02-15T11:21:56Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Final_PEDRO_FINAL.pdf: 854760 bytes, checksum: 84c4b87894fb2fb47ea6906278c0e42b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2012-03-14T14:33:30Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Final_PEDRO_FINAL.pdf: 854760 bytes, checksum: 84c4b87894fb2fb47ea6906278c0e42b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-03-14T14:43:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Final_PEDRO_FINAL.pdf: 854760 bytes, checksum: 84c4b87894fb2fb47ea6906278c0e42b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-05-30 / O objetivo do presente trabalho é investigar estatisticamente a influência de determinantes econômicos, tais como, PIB per capita, câmbio real, escolaridade, abertura comercial, peso do governo no produto e população, na perda de peso do setor industrial no produto. A regressão foi estruturada na forma de painel, com dimensão temporal, para capturar a evolução no tempo, e com 130 países, de forma a garantir heterogeneidade à amostra. O resultado indica uma forte influência do produto per capita na evolução do tamanho relativo do setor manufatureiro, o que reforça o ponto da transformação estrutural e estabelece uma relação positiva entre apreciação da taxa de câmbio real e o peso da indústria. / This paper aims to investigate statistically the influence of economic indicators, such as, GDP per capita, real exchange rate, education, trade openness, government share of the GDP and population on the decline of the industrial sector as percentage of the GDP. The regression was structured in the form of a panel with time dimension to capture the evolution in time e with 130 countries to ensure the heterogeneity of the sample. The results point to a strong influence of the GDP per capita in the evolution of the relative size of the manufacturing sector, reassuring the idea of structural transformation, as well as they establish a positive relationship between the real exchange rate appreciation and the percentage of the industrial sector in the total product.

Le Pakistan fait partie des dix grands pays qui reçoivent des transferts de fonds des immigrés. Les transferts de fonds qui arrivent dans le pays dépassent les autres flux publics ou privés. Dans cette étude, nous analysons quelques aspects de ces transferts de fonds, en ce qui concerne leur nature, leurs causes ainsi que leurs conséquences. Nos résultats montrent qu’ils constituent un flux relativement stable. Ils sont envoyés particulièrement pour des raisons altruistes. Les transferts réagissent également aux conditions des pays d’accueil des immigrés. D’ailleurs, nous constatons qu’ils diminuent l’incidence, la profondeur et la gravité de la pauvreté au Pakistan et atténuent les inégalités économiques. Néanmoins, ces flux provoquent les symptômes du syndrome hollandais et sont associés à la baisse de compétitivité. Les transferts provenant de l’étranger engendre une baisse de la participation au travail de ses bénéficiaires au Pakistan. Par conséquent leur impact global sur l’économie est mitigé. C’est pourquoi le role des transferts de fonds dans un plan pour le développement de l’économie demande une réflexion attentive. A la lumière de nos recherches, nous soulignons les defis auxquels le pays est confronté en raison des flux incessants des transferts de fonds. Nous suggérons donc quelques mesures qui permettent d’optimiser leurs bienfaits et éviter les effets néfastes. / Pakistan is one of the major remittance-receiving countries. Foreign remittances to the country exceed other public and private financial inflows. In this study, we examine some aspects pertaining to the nature, causes and consequences of migrant remittances. We find that remittances to Pakistan are relatively stable, and are motivated by mainly altruistic reasons. They also respond to host-country economic conditions. They also appear to lower the incidence, depth and severity of poverty in the country, and reduce economic inequality. However, remittances induce symptoms of Dutch disease in the economy, and are associated with falling trade competitiveness. Moreover, foreign remittances lead to a reduction in labour participation among the recipients. As a result, their over all influence on Pakistan’s economy is a mixed one, and their use as a part of the country’s development plans requires careful thinking. In the light of our findings, we highlight the challenges the country faces from sustained large inflows of remittances and suggest the measures which could maximize their beneficial impacts and avoid the pernicious ones.

Le phénomène de transferts de fonds suscite un débat passionnant au sein de la classe politique, des chercheurs et des universitaires. Ceci est dû au fait qu’il touche à des aspects humains, économiques et financiers. Les transferts de fonds sont considérés comme étant une source de financement importante pour la majorité des pays en développement. Le Maroc n’échappe pas à cette logique. Il est, en effet, l’un des pays qui reçoit le plus de transferts de fonds dans le monde. L’objet de notre thèse est triple. Il s’agit dans un premier temps, de comprendre l’évolution des transferts de fonds depuis les années 1980 jusqu’à aujourd’hui. Dans un deuxième temps, il s’agira de cerner les principaux déterminants de ces transferts. Dans un troisième temps, nous proposerons une analyse approfondie de l’impact des transferts de fonds sur l’économie marocaine dans son ensemble, avec une attention particulière aux politiques de change et aux politiques monétaires. En utilisant des techniques économétriques adéquates et pertinentes ainsi que des données fines (bilatérales), nous arrivons à mettre en lumière des aspects importants des transferts de fonds. En effet, les transferts de fonds constituent un enjeu majeur pour l’économie marocaine, de même, le comportement des migrants en termes de transferts varie selon le pays d’accueil et dans le temps. Leur impact ne s’avère pas être nuisible (absence du phénomène du syndrome hollandais) à l’économie marocaine. Les politiques marocaines d’émigration semblent être pertinentes. Cependant, pour être efficaces, ces politiques doivent être plus hétérogènes, en tenant compte des spécificités et des caractéristiques des migrants en fonction des pays d’accueil. / The phenomenon of migrant remittances has attracted keen interest among policymakers, scholars and researchers. This owes to the fact that remittances involve multiple human, economic and financial aspects. International remittances have become an important source of foreign exchange for several developing countries. One such country is Morocco, being one of the world’s major remittance-receiving countries. This dissertation deals with three features of remittance inflows to the country. First of all, the evolution of remittances from 1980 onwards is analyzed. Secondly, key drivers of these flows are empirically determined. Thirdly, their impacts on the Moroccan economy are examined in detail, especially those pertaining to the country’s exchange rate and monetary policy. Employing pertinent sophisticated econometric techniques and bilateral data, we come up with important findings in this context. We find that remittances are indeed playing a major role in the Moroccan economy; that the behavior of Moroccan migrants in terms of the amounts remitted back home vary with respect to the destination countries as well as the time dimension; and those remittances do not appear to induce the Dutch disease in the country’s economy. As a result, Morocco’s migration policies seem to be adequate. The policy can be made more effective by adapting it to the diverse features and specificities of Moroccan migrant communities residing in different parts of the world.

Submitted by Lucas De Moura Reis (lucsreis@gmail.com) on 2013-08-27T20:52:06Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - versão final Lucas Reis.pdf: 1558450 bytes, checksum: 422a7b41e44ddd6bb0304488e4e6a7c4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2013-08-30T18:57:30Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - versão final Lucas Reis.pdf: 1558450 bytes, checksum: 422a7b41e44ddd6bb0304488e4e6a7c4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-19T19:51:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - versão final Lucas Reis.pdf: 1558450 bytes, checksum: 422a7b41e44ddd6bb0304488e4e6a7c4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-23 / A forte apreciação cambial que o Brasil sofreu na última década se traduziu em um novo debate acerca da hipótese de Doença Holandesa no país. Como a queda da taxa de câmbio real ocorreu em um período de alta de preços de commodities e nos últimos anos, especialmente após a crise de 2008, vimos uma maior concentração da pauta exportadora em produtos primários, muitos economistas argumentam que a apreciação foi consequência do boom de commodities e que, em razão disso, o Brasil poderia estar sofrendo da Doença Holandesa. Este trabalho mostra que o boom de commodities não foi a principal causa da apreciação da taxa de câmbio real e não representou uma maior dependência destas mercadorias. A mudança do perfil de risco da economia brasileira foi um dos fatores mais importante para a queda da taxa de câmbio. Concluímos, portanto, que a recente perda de competitividade dos demais setores exportadores não pode ser atribuída exclusivamente à valorização das commodities. / The strong appreciation of the Brazilian currency in the last decade has resulted in a new debate on whether the economy has caught the Dutch Disease. The fall of the real exchange rate has occurred in a period of growing commodity prices and, since we have seen a greater concentration of Brazilian exports in primary goods in recent years, specially after the recent financial crisis, many economists argue that the appreciation was due to the commodity boom and that, as a consequence, Brazil could be suffering from the Dutch Disease. This paper shows that, although the relative importance of these goods in the trade balance is high, the commodity boom was not the main cause of the appreciation of the real exchange rate and did not reflect in a higher dependence on primary goods. Another determinant factor for the real exchange rate appreciation was the change in the Brazilian country risk. We therefore conclude that the recent loss of competitiveness of other export sectors cannot be exclusively attributed to the rise in commodity prices.