This thesis tests the ability of the Lorenz's (2005) chaotic model to simulate predictability curve of the ECMWF model calculated from data over the 1986 to 2011 period and demonstrates similarity of the predictability curves for the Lorenz's model with N = 90 variables. This thesis also tests approximations of predictability curves and their differentials, aiming to correct the ECMWF model estimated parameters and thus allow for estimation of the largest Lyapunov exponent, model error and limit value of the predictability curve. The correction is based on comparing the parameters estimated for the Lorenz's and ECMWF and on comparison with the largest Lyapunov exponent (λ=0,35 day-1 ) and limit value of the predictability curve (E∞=8,2) of the Lorenz's model. Parameters are calculated from approximations made by the Quadratic hypothesis with and without model error, as well as by Logarithmic and General hypotheses and by hyperbolic tangent employing corrections with and without model error. Average value of the largest Lyapunov exponent is estimated to be λ=0,37 day-1 for the ECMWF model, limit values of the predictability curves are estimated with lower theoretically derived values and new approach of calculation of model error based on comparison of models is presented.

Wind farm assessment is a costly and time consuming process when it is planned by traditional methods such as a met mast. Therefore, new models have been established and used for the wind farm assessment to ease the process of wind farm planning. These models are Global-regional models which add to cost efficiency and time saving. There are several types of these models in the market that have different accuracy. This thesis discusses and uses in simulations Global – regional model data outputs from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Weather Research Forecast WRF and ECMWF, which is currently producing ERA-Interim, global reanalysis of the data-rich period since 1989 .The goal of the master's thesis is to see whether it is useful and efficient to use Global – regional weather model data such as the Era Interim Global Reanalysis Model data for wind assessment by comparing it with the real data series (met mast) located in Maglarp, in the south of Sweden.The comparison shows that in that specific area (hindcast) at Maglarp, in the south of Sweden, very promising results for planning a wind farm for a 100m, 120m and 38m heights.

L’objectif de cette thèse est d’obtenir une meilleure connaissance des ondes de gravité atmosphériques, de leurs sources et caractéristiques, et de leur propagation au moyen d’observations ballons et de simulations. Les ballons pressurisés (SPBs) utilisés dans cette thèse sont une des meilleures plateformes d’observations des ondes de gravité, et permettent d’obtenir l’ensemble de leurs caractéristiques. Les modèles à haute résolution donnent une description complète de l’écoulement, non seulement des ondes, mais aussi de leurs sources. Nous avons combiné mesures par SPBs et modélisation pour décrire les ondes de gravité et évaluer le réalisme des champs d’ondes de gravité dans des sorties de modèles. En s’appuyant sur les observations de PreConcordiasi (2010), les ondes de gravité convectives sont décrites aux Tropiques sur l’ensemble de la campagne, ainsi que sur un cas de cyclone tropical en développement. Dans un deuxième temps, les observations de la campagne Concordiasi (2010) nous permettent de quantifier le réalisme du champ d’onde de gravité résolu aux hautes latitudes (hémisphère sud) décrit dans les analyses de l’ECMWF. Un bon accord géographique et saisonnier est observé pour les flux de quantité de mouvement et l’intermittence. Cependant, il est montré que la magnitude des flux est sous-estimée dans les analyses de l’ECMWF. Enfin, une contribution aux campagnes opérationnelles ballons est apportée, en se focalisant sur les ballons stratosphériques ouverts qui sont le plus grand défi pour le CNES. Pour des cas d’étude lors de la campagne Strapolété (2009), nous montrons que l’incertitude sur la position de retombée des ballons peut être réduite dans une configuration simple en assimilant des observations par radiosondages. / The goal of this thesis is to obtain a better knowledge of the atmospheric gravity waves in the atmosphere, of their sources and characteristics, and their propagation using balloon observations and modeling. The superpressure balloons (SPBs) used in this thesis are one of the best platform to observe gravity waves, and allow us to retrieve the ensemble of their characteristics. High-resolution models provide a complete description of the flow, not only of the waves, but also of their sources. We have combined SPB measurements and modeling in order to describe the gravity waves and evaluate the gravity wave field in model outputs. Using the observations from PreConcordiasi (2010), the convective gravity waves are described in the Tropics during the whole campaign, and also for a case of developing Tropical Cyclone. Second, observations from the Concordiasi campaign (2010) allow us to quantify the realism of the resolved gravity wave field in the ECMWF analyses at high latitudes (Southern Hemisphere). A good geographical and seasonal agreement is found for the momentum fluxes and the intermittency. However, it is shown that the magnitude is underestimated in the ECMWF. Finally, we bring a contribution to the operational balloon campaigns, with a focus on the open stratospheric balloons, which constitute the greatest challenge for the CNES. For cases during the Strapolété campaign, we show that the uncertainty on the final touchdown position of the balloons can be reduced using a simple setup that assimilates radiosoundings.

Earth observation data is increasingly ubiquitous, easily accessible, freely available, and generally usable due to improvements in software, data standards, network infrastructure, and national policies. As a result, greater opportunities arise for using these data in a wider field of application including decision support for local and regional environmental and water resources management efforts. In parts of the world where in situ data are less readily available, global Earth observation data used in such decision support tools can be a boon to underfunded government and private water management agencies. The United Nations Group on Earth Observations Global Water Sustainability initiative (GEOGloWS) works to coordinate such solutions, bringing global water management capabilities to local decision makers. The recent development and deployment of a global hydrologic modelling system based on historical simulations and daily ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) using Earth observations and streamflow routing on every river of the world results in a highly informative and potentially transformative dataset for users at local scales. However, for this data to reach its full potential at the local level, it needs to be subsetted at a regional or local scale, presented in a local geographic context, and interpreted in terms of local water management challenges. Furthermore, this subsetting allows for customization to support the way information is used and the kinds of decisions that are made. This paper presents the design, development, and experimental testing of the GEOGloWS HydroViewer, which is an open source, web-based software that effectively localizes global ECMWF forecasts to meet the needs of water managers and decision makers through subsetting the mapping and modelling services and supporting other customization as needed. The unique Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) deployment method, developed and tested here, allows for individual water management agencies to automatically generate custom HydroViewer applications that can be managed and/or customized depending on need and capacity in-country without reliance on external software and capacity, removing typical interdependence relationships that often define technology transfer to developing countries.

Using co-located space-borne satellite (TRMM PR, ESCAT on ERS 1/2) measurements, and numerical predicted wind fields (ECMWF), the sensitivity of C-band backscatter measurement to rain is evaluated. It is demonstrated that C-band radar backscatter can be significantly altered by rain surface perturbation, an effect that has been previously neglected. A low-order wind/rain backscatter model is developed that has inputs of surface rain rate, incidence angle, wind speed, wind direction, and azimuth angle. The wind/rain backscatter model is accurate enough for describing the total backscatter in raining areas with relatively low variance. Rain has a more significant impact on measurements at high incidence angles than at low incidence angles. Using three distinct regimes, the conditions for which wind, rain, and both wind and rain can be retrieved from scatterometer backscatter measurements are determined. The effects of rain on ESCAT wind-only retrieval are evaluated. The additional scattering from rain causes estimated wind speeds to be biased high and estimated wind directions to be biased toward the along-track direction in heavy rains. To compensate for rain-induced backscatter, we develop a simultaneous wind/rain retrieval method (SWRR), which simultaneously estimates wind and rain from ESCAT backscatter measurements with an incidence angle of over 40 degrees. The performance of SWRR under typical wind/rain conditions is evaluated through simulation and validation with collocated TRMM PR and ECMWF data sets. SWRR is shown to significantly improve wind velocity estimates and the SWRR-estimated rain rate has relatively high accuracy in moderate to heavy rain cases. RADARSAT-1 ScanSAR SWA images of Hurricane Katrina are used to retrieve surface wind vectors over the ocean. Collocated H*wind wind directions are used as the wind direction estimate and the wind speed is derived from SAR backscatter measurements by inversion of a C-band HH-polarization Geophysical Model Function (GMF) that is derived from the VV-polarization GMF, CMOD5, using a polarization ratio model. Because existing polarization models do not fit the ScanSAR SWA data well, a recalibration model is proposed to recalibrate the ScanSAR SWA images. Validated with collocated H*wind wind speed estimates, the mean difference between SAR-retrieved and H*wind speed is small and the root mean square (RMS) error is below 4 m/s. Rain effects on the ScanSAR measurements are analyzed for three different incidence angle ranges using collocated ground-based Doppler weather radar (NEXRAD) rain measurements. Compared with the scatterometer-derived model, the rain-induced backscatter observed by the ScanSAR at incidence angles 44 to 45.7 degrees is consistent with the scatterometer-derived model when the polarization difference between HH and VV polarizations is considered.

Warning systems with the ability to predict floods days in advance can benefit tens of millions of people. Because of these potential impacts there have been efforts to improve prediction systems such as the United States’ Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service and European-developed Global Flood Awareness System. However, these projects are currently limited to relatively coarse resolutions. This thesis presents a method for downscaling and routing global runoff forecasts generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts using the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge program that make possible orders of magnitude increases in the density of the resolution of stream forecasts. The processing method involves using the Amazon Web Services to distribute execution in a cloud-computing environment to make it possible to solve for large watersheds with high-density stream networks. Using the Amazon Web Services, the number of streams that can be used in the downscaling process in a twelve-hour period is approximated to be close to five million. In addition, an application for visualizing large high-density stream networks has been created using the Tethys Platform of water resources modeling developed as part of the CI-WATER NSF grant. The web application is tested with the HUC-2 Region 12 watershed network with over 67,000 reaches and is able to display analyzed results to the user for each reach.

Submitted by Lucienne Costa (lucienneferreira@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-08-27T15:03:16Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DANILO ERICKSEN COSTA CABRAL – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2018.pdf: 3103151 bytes, checksum: 21c39f5e775ca2cffae4904318258171 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-27T15:03:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DANILO ERICKSEN COSTA CABRAL – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2018.pdf: 3103151 bytes, checksum: 21c39f5e775ca2cffae4904318258171 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-22 / Analisou-se neste estudo a tendência anual e a média global da Água Precipitável (AP) no período de 1986 a 2016. Foram utilizados dados extraídos das reanálises do ERAInterim/ European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). A partir destes dados avaliou-se a distribuição espacial da tendência de Água Precipitável. Para a análise da tendência climática aplicou-se testes estatísticos de Mann-Kendall e t de Student observandose o comportamento das séries globais. Para a variável AP, foi encontrado o valor médio de 24,4mm para todo o período, correspondendo a um volume estimado para toda a atmosfera. Os resultados apontam tendências significativas de 0,0246; 0,0121 e 0,0203 mm/ano para o HN; HS e todo o Globo, respectivamente. Foi observada uma tendência positiva para algumas áreas do globo bem como outras negativas, resultando em uma distribuição não homogênea, denotando-se uma provável tendência de aumento do vapor d’água no globo. / In this study was analyzed the annual trend and the global mean of Precipitation Water (WP) from 1986 to 2016. Data extracted from the ERA-Interim / European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis were used. From these data was evaluated the Precipitation Water tendency spatial distribution. For the analysis of the climatic trend, Mann-Kendall and t-Student statistical tests were applied, observing the behavior of the global series. For the WP variable was found the average value of 24.4 mm for the whole period, corresponding to estimated volume for the whole atmosphere. The results indicate significant trends of 0.0246, 0.0121 and 0.0203 mm /year for HN; HS and the whole Globe, respectively. A positive trend was observed for some areas of globe as well as negative values, resulting the not homogeneous distribution, denoting a probable tendency to increase water vapor in the globe.

Dans le contexte du réchauffement et du changement climatique, il est important d’étudier les distributions, les cycles saisonniers et les tendances des gaz à l’état de trace dans l’atmosphère tels que la vapeur d’eau. L'Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand a en charge plusieurs dispositifs d’observation dont le site instrumenté Cézeaux, Opme et Puy de Dôme (CO-PDD) situés dans le centre de la France (45◦ N, 3◦ E). Le site des Cézeaux dispose d’un LIDAR Rayleigh – Mie - Raman fournissant en routine des profils verticaux de vapeur d’eau et de paramètres optiques caractérisant les cirrus. Le site du puy de Dôme est équipé d’un spectroscope à cavité optique (CRDS-Picarro). Des mesures de colonnes totales de vapeur d’eau sont disponibles sur tous ces sites par GPS. Le site d’Opme est équipé d’un pluviomètre. Enfin Météo-France effectue le travail de contrôle qualité des données météorologiques sur les stations de mesure en France et ces données ont été utilisées dans cette thèse. La validation des données sur le site du puy de Dôme a été la première la première exploitation dans cette thèse. Des comparaisons des données sur le puy de Dôme ont montré un très bon accord entre les données de vapeur d’eau extraites de la station météorologique du puy de Dôme, de Météo France et les donnes CRDS du puy de Dôme, avec une corrélation de 0.94 et 0.98 respectivement. Les profils verticaux obtenus par LIDAR ont permis de sélectionner une anomalie de vapeur d’eau et d’identifier une intrusion stratosphère-troposphère en analysant les processus dynamique associés à cette anomalie. Les données OLR ont montré que cette intrusion est accompagnée de convection profonde et enfin LACYTRAJ confirme l'origine stratosphérique d’une partie de la masse d'air présente au-dessus de Clermont-Ferrand au cours de l’anomalie. Les longues séries d’observations (ex : Puy de Dôme 1995-2015) et des ré-analyse ECMWF ERA-Interim (1979-2017) et la diversité des sources de données (ex : satellites AIRS et COSMIC), nous permettent de documenter, analyser et comparer la variabilité, les cycles et la tendance de la vapeur d'eau à la surface et dans la troposphère, à différentes échelles de temps et déterminer les processus géophysiques responsables des distributions de vapeur d'eau sur le site CO-PDD. Le cycle annuel de la vapeur d'eau est clairement établi pour les deux sites de différentes altitudes et pour tous les types de mesure. Les sites de Cézeaux et du puy de Dôme ne présentent presque aucun cycle diurne, suggérant que la variabilité de la vapeur d'eau à la surface sur ces deux sites est plus influencée par les systèmes météorologique sporadiques que par les variations diurnes régulières. Les données LIDAR montrent une plus grande variabilité mensuelle de la distribution verticale que les produits satellites COSMIC et AIRS. La colonne totale de vapeur d'eau GPS sur le site des Cézeaux présente une tendance positive (0,42 ± 0,45 g/kg*décade entre 2006-2017). L'analyse par régressions multi-linéaires montre que les forçages continentaux (East Atlantic, East Atlantic-West Russia) ont une plus grande influence que le forçage océanique (Nord Atlantic Oscillation) sur les variations de vapeur d'eau. / In the context of global warming and climate change, it is important to study the distributions, seasonal cycles and trends of trace gases in the atmosphere such as water vapor. of the Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand is in charge of several observation devices including the instrumented site Cézeaux, Opme and Puy de Dôme (CO-PDD) located near the center of France (45◦ N, 3◦ E). The site of Cézeaux is instrumented by a Rayleigh - Mie–LIDAR Raman providing routine vertical profiles of water vapor mixing ratio and optical parameters characterizing cirrus clouds. The puy de Dôme site is equipped with an optical cavity spectroscope (CRDS-Picarro). Measurements of total water vapor columns are available on all these sites by GPS. The Opme site is equipped with rain gauges. Finally, Météo-France performs the quality control work and of data on meteorological stations in France and these data were used in this thesis. The validation of the puy de Dôme data was the first the first task in this thesis. Comparisons between the puy de Dôme data sets showed a very good agreement between the water vapor datafrom the OPGC meteorological station of Puy de Dôme, Météo France and CRDS data with a correlation of 0.94 and 0.98 respectively. The vertical profiles deduced from the LIDAR allowed to identify a water vapor anomaly and a stratosphere-troposphere intrusion associated with this anomaly. OLR data showed that this intrusion could be linked with deep convection and LACYTRAJ confirms the stratospheric origin of a part of the air mass present above Clermont-Ferrand. Long series of observations (eg Puy de Dôme 1995-2015) and ECMWF ERA-Interim re-analysis (1979-2017) and the diversity of data sources (eg AIRS and COSMIC satellites), allowed us to document, analyze and compare the variability, cycles and trend of surface and tropospheric water vapor at different time scales and determine the geophysical processes responsible for water vapor distributions at the site of CO-PDD. The annual cycle of water vapor is clearly established for the two sites of different altitudes and for all types of measurement. Cézeaux and puy de Dôme present almost no diurnal cycle, suggesting that the variability of surface water vapor at this site is more influenced by a sporadic meteorological system than by regular diurnal variations. The LIDAR dataset shows a greater monthly variability of the vertical distribution than the COSMIC and AIRS satellite products. The Cézeaux site presents a positive trend for the GPS water vapor total column (0.42 ± 0.45 g/kg*decade during 2006–2017) and a significant negative trend for the surface water vapor mixing ratio (−0.16 ± 0.09 mm/decade during 2002–2017). The multi-linear regression analysis shows that continental forcings (East Atlantic Pattern and East Atlantic-West Russia Pattern) have a larger influence than oceanic forcing (North Atlantic Oscillation) on the water vapor variations.