The literature on nexus between trade and business cycle synchronization have provided mixed and weak evidence of the effect of trade on business cycle synchronization as a result of lack of value-added bilateral trade data which provides solution for overestimation or underestimation of shock exposure when using gross trade data. Also, due to limited data on sectoral bilateral value-added trade, the literature has not been able to pinpoint the sectors where synchronization is necessary in order to economically direct all effort to these sectors in forging economic integration. The paper uses value-added trade data to examine the impact of trade on business cycle synchronization at the aggregate level and sector level and find a highly significant and highly positive effect of trade on the aggregate level. Estimates for agriculture, manufacturing, construction, total business, electricity gas and sewer, and other service sectors yield a positive significant effect in the service sector, indicating that attention should be focus on the service and business sector when integrating economically.In this paper we examine output cycle synchronization patterns of the countries that joined the Eurozone later and countries that are in preparation or committed to join in relation to the original Eurozone members. We analysis this in the contest of before, during and recovery periods of the global financial crisis investigate the differences in the patterns of synchronization for late and future members of the Eurozone. For more understanding, we examine the pattern on disaggregate level using data for agricultural, manufacturing, construction, utility, total business and other services sectors from 1995-2015. Also, we examine the importance of trade on output synchronization both on the aggregate and disaggregate level using System GMM which not only solves the problem of endogeneity, but it estimates the persistence of business cycle synchronization efficiently. The result provides evidence of a positive persistence; however, synchronization pattern differs between late and future member states. Also, the financial crisis had a negative effect on synchronization in the European sub region as result the difference in the response by member states. The result shows a weak evidence of the importance of trade as a channel of synchronization. Even though previous studies have provided evidence improvement in UK and the Eurozone output comovement, Brexit came to pass. This has questioned the potency of the Enlargement of the Eurozone Initiative. This paper reexamines the degree of business cycle synchronization between the Euro area countries and United Kingdom in attempt to find an economic reason for Brexit. We also examine if the disaggregate economy have share similar pattern as the aggregated economy using the output synchronization in the agricultural, manufacturing, constructions, utility, total business and other service sectors between the euro area countries and United Kingdom. Using valued-added trade data between 1995 and 2015 from WTO-TiVA database we further examine effect of trade (sectoral trade) on the output (sectoral output) synchronization. Furthermore, we analyze the same questions in the contest of before and after the global financial crisis. The result show that the UK-EMU trade channel is no important to the output cycles synchronization. Also, due the unstable pattern or persistence of UK-EMU synchronization the EMU will have little effect from the Brexit if there exit one.

Cellular metabolism is one of the most fundamental systems for any living organisms, involving thousands of metabolites and reactions that forms large interconnected metabolic networks. Proper and comprehensive understanding of the metabolism in human cells has been a field of research for a long time. One of the key parameters in understanding the metabolism are the metabolic fluxes, which are the rates of conversion of metabolic intermediates. Currently, one of the main approaches for determining these fluxes is metabolic flux analysis (MFA), in which isotope-labelled compounds are introduced into the system and measured. Mathematical models are then used to calculate a prediction of the systems flux configuration. However, the current paradigm of MFA lack established methods for validating that a model can accurately predict quantities for which there are no experimental data. In this study, a model for the central human metabolism was created and evaluated with regards to the model’s ability to predict a validation dataset. Further, an uncertainty analysis of these predictions were performed with a prediction profile likelihood analysis. This study has conclusively shown that MFA models can be validated against experimental data that the model has never seen before. Additionally, such model predictions were shown to be observable with a well determined prediction uncertainty. These results shows that a systematic validation of MFA models is possible. This in turn allows for a greater trust to be placed in the models, and in any conclusions that are based on such models.

Yes / After Brexit, EU national leaders can no longer escape the need to implement structural reforms and improve Eurozone governance. Since the start of the crisis, considerable progress has been made to stabilise EMU, but the current status quo is not an adequate answer to the challenges ahead. As in other domains of European interest, lack of initiative and reform is only fuelling populism. The ECB has contributed greatly to making up for the lack of policy coordination, insufficient structural reforms, and lack of progress in Eurozone economic governance. But its policy impact has been limited by these shortcomings and it has frequently been under fire for having had to take extraordinary measures. This paper, first, considers the initial flaws of the monetary project and the progress made since an EMU a minima was launched in 1999. Second, it examines the measures needed to make the long-term functioning of the euro area sustainable, and analyses the range of issues and choices that policymakers and political leaders need to face to stabilize EMU whilst addressing the often structural lack of competitiveness encountered among Eurozone members. Finally, it formulates recommendations on how to improve the workings of EMU without further postponing action.

In an open economy economic agents distribute their spending between domestic and various import goods and they may reconsider their choice whenever relative international prices change. Armington elasticities quantify these reallocations in demand for goods produced in different countries. Recent analytical frameworks allow to further differentiate between a macro elasticity of substitution between domestic and import goods and a micro elasticity between different import sources. Despite the relevance of Armington elasticities for evaluating trade policy there has been no systematic study on whether micro and macro elasticities significantly differ for highly integrated economies within a free trade area and whether there is a common pattern. Using highly disaggregated data, this paper estimates Armington elasticities for a panel of 15 EMU Member States. Empirical results indicate a significant difference between micro and macro elasticities for up to one half of the consistent product groups considered, implying preferences across EMU countries are not perfectly aligned with non-discriminatory tariffs. I conclude that both the absolute and relative macro elasticities are informative and that heterogeneous preference patterns link to current trade imbalances. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

A phantom is haunting the EU enlargement process. Some fear that the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) effect might be a major obstacle for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) to become members of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). A review of the relevant literature reveals that most estimations of the B-S effect in the EU acceding countries are flawed by one kind or the other. Either they do not estimate correctly the B-S propositions, or if they measure it they use a variety of measures for the variables needed. Additionally, the B-S effect is only a special case of a broader approach towards equilibrium real exchange rates. Lastly the B-S effect is studied in a CGE multi-country world in order to detect possible spillover effects. After describing the "official" road map towards the EMU, it is concluded that the uncertainties in measuring the B-S are much too high in order to see in it (alone) a major hindrance for the CEEC to become early members of the EMU. Moreover, real exchange rate appreciations that reflect productivity gains in the tradable sector are an equilibrium phenomenon and do not require a policy response. They are a natural phenomena in catching-up countries like the CEEC. Furthermore, the official doctrine for entering the EMU by the EU/ECB only interdicts depreciations but not appreciations for potential EMU members. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

This paper estimates the determinants of exchange rate variability for 21 developed economies in 1980-1998. The results show that traditional criteria implied by the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, such as business cycle synchronisation, trade linkages and economy size, determine to a large extent bilateral exchange rate variability. Using the ordinary least squares estimation, we compute OCA indices for European economies vis-à-vis Germany and identify countries showing consistently large or little signs of convergence. We find that since 1998, most European developed economies have converged to Germany whether or not they are using the euro, suggesting that structural similarity is not driven solely by monetary integration. Our results from the model estimated by the generalized method of moments suggest that two additional criteria reflecting labour market flexibility and private credit growth are significant in explaining the exchange rate variability and lead to a ranking of countries different from the traditional approach. We find a positive relationship between the OCA indices and GDP decline during the economic crisis of 2008-09, which further supports the view that the OCA index is a useful indicator of the candidates' readiness to join the Euro Area. We apply the results to the...

<p>After Sweden became a member of the European Union, EU, the debate regarding the Swedish participation in the EU’s currency co-operation, the European Monetary Union, EMU, has been intense. One of the biggest issues has been how our national economic politics will work within such a monetary union. What instrument will remain for the national economic politics within the EMU are highly uncertain. The question whether we will be able to affect our own economy or not has long been the essence in the Swedish debate. At the same time that Sweden got membership in the EU, Austria became a member as well. Austria is just like Sweden a small open economy with many similarities to Sweden with regard to politics and economics. One big difference between the countries though, is that Austria at once became a member of the currency co-operation and joined the EMU from the start of it. The debates regarding the EMU has been very much alike in the two countries, though it differs in one important question. One big question that has been raised in Austria is the potential of a wider co-operation within the EMU than at present. This discussion has led to suggestions of a wider co-operation through discussions between the EMU-countries, larger possibilities for sanctions against countries which are not following the common economic plan or even suggestions about a politic union. There is very much a discussion in the spirit of collectivism. In Sweden non of this is even an issue. Here the whole debate is focused on the national possibilities and losses in a monetary union. How the country will be able to optimise its own good within the EMU is the only thing of interest in the Swedish debate. The point of view is always the national good and has never the collectivism in mind.</p>

After Sweden became a member of the European Union, EU, the debate regarding the Swedish participation in the EU’s currency co-operation, the European Monetary Union, EMU, has been intense. One of the biggest issues has been how our national economic politics will work within such a monetary union. What instrument will remain for the national economic politics within the EMU are highly uncertain. The question whether we will be able to affect our own economy or not has long been the essence in the Swedish debate. At the same time that Sweden got membership in the EU, Austria became a member as well. Austria is just like Sweden a small open economy with many similarities to Sweden with regard to politics and economics. One big difference between the countries though, is that Austria at once became a member of the currency co-operation and joined the EMU from the start of it. The debates regarding the EMU has been very much alike in the two countries, though it differs in one important question. One big question that has been raised in Austria is the potential of a wider co-operation within the EMU than at present. This discussion has led to suggestions of a wider co-operation through discussions between the EMU-countries, larger possibilities for sanctions against countries which are not following the common economic plan or even suggestions about a politic union. There is very much a discussion in the spirit of collectivism. In Sweden non of this is even an issue. Here the whole debate is focused on the national possibilities and losses in a monetary union. How the country will be able to optimise its own good within the EMU is the only thing of interest in the Swedish debate. The point of view is always the national good and has never the collectivism in mind.

Sedan införandet av euro som gemensam valuta har interna obalanser inom euroområdet växt sig starkare till följd av reala apprecieringar i speciellt Portugal, Irland, Italien, Grekland och Spanien. Detta har lett till att ländernas internationella konkurrenskraft försvagats. För att få bukt med de interna obalanserna krävs det att länderna återfår sin internationella konkurrenskraft, deras varor måste bli billigare i jämförelse med deras handelspartner. Detta kan komma till stånd genom reala deprecieringar. Hösten 2008 drabbades världen av den djupaste ekonomiska nedgången sedan andra världskriget, något som förvärrade situationen för de krisande euroländerna. Uppsatsen belyser de interna obalanserna inom euroområdet och diskuterar teoretiskt på vilka sätt länderna kan få stånd till reala deprecieringar när det inte finns någon växelkurs att ändra mot de andra euroländerna. Data för de krisande länderna visar på att dess konkurrenskraft har urholkats sedan införandet av euron. Analysen startar år 2001 då samtliga länder hade övergått till euron. De tillvägagångssätt som analyseras är en sänkning av de relativa arbetsgivaravgifterna, en sänkning av de relativa lönerna eller en ökning av den relativa produktiviteten. Som sista möjliga tillvägagångssätt analyseras ett utträde ur EMU. Svårigheter med samtliga tillvägagångssätt lyfts fram och slutsatsen att en real depreciering tar lång tid och kräver hög arbetslöshet dras. I den empiriska delen görs jämförelser med de baltiska länderna under krisen 2008- 2011 och med Sverige under 1990-talskrisen. Analysen visar att de baltiska länderna lyckades genomföra en real depreciering genom att sänka de nominella lönerna och öka den relativa produktiviteten, dock till en hög kostnad i form av ökad arbetslöshet. Sveriges nominella depreciering av växelkursen analyseras och används som ett bra exempel på hur en real depreciering leder till förbättring av konkurrenskraften. Eftersom reala deprecieringar tycks förutsätta arbetslöshet beräknas så kallade uppoffringskvoter som visar hur stor ökning av arbetslösheten som krävs för varje procents reala depreciering. Hypotesen att de baltiska ländernas uppoffringskvoter är lägre än motsvarande kvoter för krisländerna i euroområdet till följd av svagare fackföreningar visar sig stämma, likaså att Sveriges uppoffringskvot under 1990- talskrisen var lägre eftersom en extern depreciering kunde göras. Uppsatsen drar slutsatsen att den relativa produktiviteten är av största betydelse för att lyckas med en real depreciering. Vidare dras slutsatsen att Irland och Spanien bör klara sig ur krisen med hjälp av reala deprecieringar, men att situationen för Portugal Italien och Grekland ser mörkare ut. Rekommendationer ges för Portugal och Italien att genomföra fler reformer för att öka sin relativa produktivitet. Ett utträde ur EMU för Grekland befaras ske i framtiden och reflektioner kring de problem som i så fall kan uppstå görs.

After two world wars, the West European Economy goes through serious recession. Through the cold war, the representatives of west European countries, German and France, feel that they must cooperate. Hence, by the bases of economic co-operations, the West Europe starts to integrate their resources and political alliances. From the ¡§Economic Community (EC)¡¨ to ¡§Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)¡¨, most West European countries go through several obstacles, like the Collapse of Bretton Woods System in 1971 and the European Crisis in 1992,¡K¡K, etc. Finally, in 1th, Jan., 1999, 11 countries of European Union establish EMU and expect to take Euro as their single currency formally in 2002. They also establish European Central Bank (ECB) to execute the Euro zone¡¦s single monetary policy. The status of Euro after 1th Jan., 1999 is the purpose of this study. This article tries to use the Exchange Rate decision theories, Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Interest Rate parity (IRP), to investigate the relationship between Euro and USD. From several statistical empirical tests, it reveals that the trends of Euro couldn¡¦t correspond with the theoretical wants, ie PPP and IRP can¡¦t catch the trends of Euro. By the outcome of ¡§Sign Test¡¨ and ¡§Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test¡¨, it can be found obviously that the Euro indeed is undervalued from the establishment to Apr., 2000 if we don¡¦t take the transaction costs into account. As a result of the outcome of empirical finds, the article starts to investigate the reasons why the theoretical values from exchange rate decision theories are not equal with real ones. One is that if the empirical models ignore some important factors which lead to the biases of models¡Fthe other is if Euro is undervalued during this observation periods. From the economic macro-environmental analyses, the article can infer that because of the Kosov Wars, Russian economic reform problems, the increase of short interest rate gap between USD and Euro, the different economic reform paces among member countries of EMU,¡K¡K, etc. result in the main factors of the weak currency - Euro.