We study some Hölderian functional central limit theorems for the polygonal partial sum processes built on a first order nearly nonstationary autoregressive process and its least squares residuals Innovations are i.i.d. centered and at least square-integrable innovations. Two types of models are considered. For the first type model we prove that the limiting process depends on Ornstein – Uhlenbeck one. In the second type model, the convergence to Brownian motion is established in Hölder space in terms of the rate of coefficient and the integrability of the residuals. We also investigate some epidemic change in the innovations of the first order nearly nonstationary autoregressive process . We build the alpha-Hölderian uniform increments statistics based on the observations and on the least squares residuals to detect the short epidemic change in the process under consideration. Under the assumptions for innovations we find the limit of the statistics under null hypothesis, some conditions of consistency and we perform a test power analysis. / Disertacijoje nagrinėjami dalinių sumų laužčių procesai sudaryti iš pirmos eilės beveik nestacionaraus proceso bei jo mažiausių kvadratų liekanų. Inovacijos yra nepriklausomi, vienodai pasiskirstę ir bent kvadratu integruojami atsitiktiniai dydžiai su nuliniu vidurkiu. Įrodomos funkcinės ribinės teoremos šiems laužčių procesams Hiolderio erdvėje. Nagrinėjami du beveik nestacionaraus proceso atvejai. Vienu atveju įrodoma, kad ribinis procesas priklauso nuo Ornsteino–Uhlenbecko proceso. Kitu atveju, įrodomas konvergavimas į Brauno judesį Hiolderio erdvėje, atsižvelgiant į koeficiento divergavimo greitį bei inovacijų integruojamumą. Toliau nagrinėjamas epideminio pasikeitimo modelis beveik nestacionaraus pirmos eilės autoregresinio proceso inovacijoms. Nagrinėjami du modeliai. Iš stebėjimų bei liekanų konstruojama tolydžiųjų prieaugių alpha-Hiolderio statistika. Remiantis prielaidomis inovacijoms, randama statistikos ribinis procesas prie nulinės hipotezės, suderinamumo sąlygos, atliekama galios analizė.

Disertacijoje nagrinėjami dalinių sumų laužčių procesai sudaryti iš pirmos eilės beveik nestacionaraus proceso bei jo mažiausių kvadratų liekanų. Inovacijos yra nepriklausomi, vienodai pasiskirstę ir bent kvadratu integruojami atsitiktiniai dydžiai su nuliniu vidurkiu. Įrodomos funkcinės ribinės teoremos šiems laužčių procesams Hiolderio erdvėje. Nagrinėjami du beveik nestacionaraus proceso atvejai. Vienu atveju įrodoma, kad ribinis procesas priklauso nuo Ornsteino–Uhlenbecko proceso. Kitu atveju, įrodomas konvergavimas į Brauno judesį Hiolderio erdvėje, atsižvelgiant į koeficiento divergavimo greitį bei inovacijų integruojamumą. Toliau nagrinėjamas epideminio pasikeitimo modelis beveik nestacionaraus pirmos eilės autoregresinio proceso inovacijoms. Nagrinėjami du modeliai. Iš stebėjimų bei liekanų konstruojama tolydžiųjų prieaugių alpha-Hiolderio statistika. Remiantis prielaidomis inovacijoms, randama statistikos ribinis procesas prie nulinės hipotezės, suderinamumo sąlygos, atliekama galios analizė. / We study some Hölderian functional central limit theorems for the polygonal partial sum processes built on a first order nearly nonstationary autoregressive process and its least squares residuals Innovations are i.i.d. centered and at least square-integrable innovations. Two types of models are considered. For the first type model we prove that the limiting process depends on Ornstein – Uhlenbeck one. In the second type model, the convergence to Brownian motion is established in Hölder space in terms of the rate of coefficient and the integrability of the residuals. We also investigate some epidemic change in the innovations of the first order nearly nonstationary autoregressive process . We build the alpha-Hölderian uniform increments statistics based on the observations and on the least squares residuals to detect the short epidemic change in the process under consideration. Under the assumptions for innovations we find the limit of the statistics under null hypothesis, some conditions of consistency and we perform a test power analysis.

There are some new challenges in system administration and design to optimize the resource management for a cloud based application. Some applications demand stringent performance requirements (e.g. delay and jitter bounds), while some applications exhibit bursty (volatile) workloads. This thesis proposes an epidemic model inspired (and continuous time Markov Chain based) framework, which can reproduce workload volatility namely the "buzz effects" (when there is a sudden increase of a content popularity) of a Video on Demand (VoD) system. Two estimation procedures (heuristic and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based approach) have also been proposed in this work to calibrate the model against workload traces. Obtained model parameters from the calibration procedures reveal some interesting property of the model. Based on numerical simulations, precisions of both procedures have been analyzed, which show that both of them perform reasonably. However, the MCMC procedure outperforms the heuristic approach. This thesis also compares the proposed model with other existing models examining the goodness-of-fit of some statistical properties of real workload traces. Finally this work suggests a probabilistic resource provisioning approach based on a Large Deviation Principle (LDP). LDP statistically characterizes the buzz effects that causeextreme workload volatility. This analysis exploits the information obtained using the LDP of the VoD system for defining resource management policies. These policies may be of some interest to all stakeholders in the emerging context of cloud networking.

During the past decade, South Africa has become the country with the highest number of HIV/AIDS infections in the world. In the wake of the widely spread HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa, hundreds of thousands of children are left parentless. Since limited research exists on the psycho-educational needs of children orphaned by AIDS in South Africa, the focus of this study was on their psycho-educational development. A literature study was conducted to investigate the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa and its consequences for the psycho-educational development of AIDS orphans. A qualitative investigation was undertaken and interviews were conducted with caregivers of AIDS orphans at two care centres in rural KwaZulu-Natal. The aim of the investigation was to identify the psycho-educational needs of AIDS orphans as perceived by their caregivers. Moreover, the investigation also aimed at identifying factors that impede the psycho-educational development of AIDS orphans, and to determine the extent to which these day care centres meet the psycho-educational needs of these orphans. The following psycho-educational needs of AIDS orphans emerged from the investigation: - the need to socialise and communicate - the need to cope with parental death - the need for acceptance - the need for security and care - the need for love and belonging - the need to deal with negative emotions Physical and material needs were added to the above needs, since these were frequently mentioned during the course of the interviews. Factors that seriously impeded the psycho-educational development of AIDS orphans were abuse and neglect. The investigation also revealed that the care centres were to a large extent able to meet a broad spectrum of these orphans’ psycho-educational needs, especially at the care centre where the AIDS orphans were able to sleep over and received the full-time attention caregivers. Since the extended family system can no longer fully carry the burden of hundreds of thousands of AIDS orphans in South Africa, care centres situated in the affected communities can offer a viable alternative to traditional models of care. The study emphasised the need for further research on the needs of AIDS orphans as well as increased support of AIDS orphans on local, provincial and national levels. / MEd (Learner support), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012

During the past decade, South Africa has become the country with the highest number of HIV/AIDS infections in the world. In the wake of the widely spread HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa, hundreds of thousands of children are left parentless. Since limited research exists on the psycho-educational needs of children orphaned by AIDS in South Africa, the focus of this study was on their psycho-educational development. A literature study was conducted to investigate the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa and its consequences for the psycho-educational development of AIDS orphans. A qualitative investigation was undertaken and interviews were conducted with caregivers of AIDS orphans at two care centres in rural KwaZulu-Natal. The aim of the investigation was to identify the psycho-educational needs of AIDS orphans as perceived by their caregivers. Moreover, the investigation also aimed at identifying factors that impede the psycho-educational development of AIDS orphans, and to determine the extent to which these day care centres meet the psycho-educational needs of these orphans. The following psycho-educational needs of AIDS orphans emerged from the investigation: - the need to socialise and communicate - the need to cope with parental death - the need for acceptance - the need for security and care - the need for love and belonging - the need to deal with negative emotions Physical and material needs were added to the above needs, since these were frequently mentioned during the course of the interviews. Factors that seriously impeded the psycho-educational development of AIDS orphans were abuse and neglect. The investigation also revealed that the care centres were to a large extent able to meet a broad spectrum of these orphans’ psycho-educational needs, especially at the care centre where the AIDS orphans were able to sleep over and received the full-time attention caregivers. Since the extended family system can no longer fully carry the burden of hundreds of thousands of AIDS orphans in South Africa, care centres situated in the affected communities can offer a viable alternative to traditional models of care. The study emphasised the need for further research on the needs of AIDS orphans as well as increased support of AIDS orphans on local, provincial and national levels. / MEd (Learner support), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012

This thesis investigates several uses of simulation methods to understand and control pandemic influenza in urban settings. An agent-based simulation, which models pandemic spread in a large metropolitan area, is used for two main purposes: to identify the shape of the distribution of pandemic outcomes, and to test for the presence of complex relationships between public health policy responses and underlying pandemic characteristics. The usefulness of pandemic simulation as a tool for assessing the cost-effectiveness of vaccination programs is critically evaluated through a rigorous comparison of three recent H1N1 vaccine cost-effectiveness studies. The potential for simulation methods to improve vaccine deployment is then demonstrated through a discrete-event simulation study of a mass immunization clinic.

This thesis investigates several uses of simulation methods to understand and control pandemic influenza in urban settings. An agent-based simulation, which models pandemic spread in a large metropolitan area, is used for two main purposes: to identify the shape of the distribution of pandemic outcomes, and to test for the presence of complex relationships between public health policy responses and underlying pandemic characteristics. The usefulness of pandemic simulation as a tool for assessing the cost-effectiveness of vaccination programs is critically evaluated through a rigorous comparison of three recent H1N1 vaccine cost-effectiveness studies. The potential for simulation methods to improve vaccine deployment is then demonstrated through a discrete-event simulation study of a mass immunization clinic.

Thesis (Doctor of Philosophy)--Miami University, Dept. of Educational Leadership, 2009. / Title from second page of PDF document. Includes bibliographical references (p. Xx-Xx).

The aim of this work is to explore the printed Hawaii shirt through material investigations in search of new print meetings. A vital step for this investigation was to develop the classic Hawaii- prints and motives in mixed media. Followed by exploring alternative printing techniques such as transfer printing, laser cutting and knitting in different materials to reach new expressions yet keeping a clear reference to the Hawaii shirt. The intention of this work was to investigate how the Hawaii shirt with its classic print could interact with the mind and body of the wearer. Furthermore, to question the informal rules of wearing a Hawaii shirt with a starting point in Umberto Eco’s theories about epidemic self-awareness. The motive of this work is to critically look at the society today, with a focus on consumerism, foreign travel and tourism and the expression of it, with the Hawaii shirt as a symbol of these things. Based on the assumption of the Hawaii shirt being a tacky souvenir that tourists bring back home from their holidays. This work show new expressions of the printed Hawaii shirt through innovative print meetings. This work also proposes alternative ways of wearing a Hawaii Shirt.

Este trabalho tem por objetivo discutir os impactos da varíola em Porto Alegre no século XIX, tendo como ponto de partida as ações protagonizadas pelos diferentes sujeitos que vivenciaram, à época, a experiência da doença e das posturas que se estabelecem contra ela. Em 1846, regulou-se a vacinação contra a varíola como prática de Estado; a recepção da nova lei, entretanto, não alcançou a notoriedade esperada por agentes do governo imperial, já que a ampla maioria da população não estava informada dos propósitos da vacina e não conferia legitimidade à medida. Observando o perfil social dos variolosos percebe-se que aqueles sujeitos, protagonistas dos conflitos de seu tempo foram capazes de elaborar respostas próprias às demandas da doença, tendo buscado os préstimos do hospital Santa Casa de Misericórdia de Porto Alegre com vistas a aliviar seus sintomas. A recusa à vacinação foi constatada por meio de muitos relatórios governamentais no período, mas também ficou evidente mediante a observância da varíola como uma doença endêmica na cidade, que alcançou surtos epidêmicos graves, como no ano de 1874, quando 1% da população faleceu em função do contágio. Analisando as repostas elaboradas pelo incipiente “poder público” para o combate à epidemia, observou-se a inoperância das medidas profiláticas vigentes, já que o isolamento de pessoas, tido como necessário para a não propagação da doença, era regra para uma parte da população, majoritariamente sujeitos livres pobres e escravos, enquanto a doença atingiu indiscriminadamente todos os setores ou classes sociais. / This dissertation aims to discuss the impact of smallpox in Porto Alegre in the nineteenth century taking as its starting point the actions played by different subjects who experienced at the time the experience of illness and the attitudes that were established against it. In 1846, smallpox vaccination was regulated as a State practice, but the reception of the new law, however, did not reach the expected notoriety bythe agents of the imperial government, since the vast majority of the population was not informed of the purpose of the vaccine and did not confer legitimacy tothis measure. Observing the social profile of the carriers of smallpox, one realizes that those subjects, protagonists of conflicts of his time, were able to develop their own answers to the demands of the disease, searching the good services of the Hospital Santa Casa de Porto Alegre in order to alleviate their symptoms. The refusal of vaccination was found by many governmental reports of the period, but was also evident by the observance of smallpox as an endemic disease in the town. Indeed, smallpox reached serious epidemic outbreaks, as in 1874, when 1 % of the population died due of contagion. Analyzing the responses prepared by the incipient public power to fight the epidemic at the time, we can observe the ineffectiveness of current prophylactic measures, since the isolation of persons was deemed necessary to not spread the disease. It was the rule for a part of the population, mostly poor free subjects and slaves, while the disease indiscriminately affected all sectors or social classes.