This dissertation consists of three stand-alone essays on fundamental uncertainty, stock return volatility and earnings management. The first study investigates the role of information about firms?? fundamentals contained in analysts?? forecasts (which I label ??non-accounting information??) in understanding stock return volatility. When combined with Ohlson??s (1995) linear information dynamics, the accounting version of the Campbell-Shiller model (Campbell and Shiller 1988a, 1988b; Vuolteenaho 2002) implies that if current non-accounting information is more uncertain, then future stock returns are expected to be more volatile. The empirical evidence supports the theoretical predictions, and the results are valid for measures of both systematic and idiosyncratic volatility. Additional analysis yields some evidence that both favourable and unfavourable news from non-accounting information increases future stock return volatility. Overall, the results highlight the value relevance of information in analysts?? forecasts beyond what is contained in the current financial statements. The second essay extends the theoretical framework of Callen and Segal (2004) and Vuolteenaho (2002) to investigate the association between the uncertainty of accrual information and stock return volatility. The empirical evidence supports the theoretical prediction that the extent of uncertainty in accounting accruals is increasing with the volatility of future stock returns, and the results are valid for measures of both systematic and idiosyncratic volatility. However, when accrual variability is decomposed into fundamental and unexpected portions, I find that the positive relationship between accrual variability and future stock return volatility is dominated by the fundamental component of accrual variability. The findings therefore suggest that the market places little weight on information conveyed by that component of accounting accruals that is most likely to reflect accounting choices, implementation decisions and managerial opportunism. The final essay argues that the presumed articulation among accruals, cash flows and revenues does not capture decisions on expected accruals when large external financing activities are present. The analysis provides evidence that managers?? ??normal?? operating decisions associated with net external financing activities are likely to lead to measurement errors in unexpected accruals that are part of expected accruals, and erroneous conclusions that significant earnings management exists when in fact there is none. This is especially pertinent in cases where the partitioning variable used to identify instances of earnings management is supposed to be uncorrelated with external financing, when in fact it is correlated. The results underscore the importance of additional specification tests being conducted to control for estimation biases in unexpected accruals associated with external financing. I suggest the use of matched-firm approach using industry and external financing matches in order that reliable and warranted inferences are made.

Earnings and book value are commonly used as the basis for firm valuation. However, the reliability of earnings, as indicated by earnings management, may affect its relevance in determining firm value. This thesis investigates the link between earnings management and firm valuation by assessing the impact of earnings management on the value-relevance of earnings and book value.Three different sources of earnings management are investigated: total discretionary accruals, short-term discretionary accruals, and long-term discretionary accruals. Total discretionary accruals are estimated using the Jones model (Jones 1991). New models are developed to estimate short-term and long-term discretionary accruals. These models enable investigation of the differential impact of earnings management via short-term versus earnings management via long-term discretionary accruals. The primary proposition is that earnings management via long-term discretionary accruals has a greater impact on the value-relevance of earnings and book value than earnings management via short-term discretionary accruals.For firm’s whose discretionary accruals indicate earnings management, the value relevance of earnings is expected to be lower than for firms without earnings management. Moreover, in the presence of earnings management, it is expected that there will be a shift from a reliance on earnings to a reliance on book value in the valuation process. This would be reflected in a decrease in the value-relevance of earnings and an increase in the value-relevance of book value.This thesis provides evidence that earnings management plays a role in the valuation process. A major contribution of this study is the development of models to enable the estimation of short-term and long-term discretionary accruals, thereby extending the earnings management literature by addressing the differential effect of short-term versus long-term discretionary accruals. The results clearly demonstrate that low reliability of information reduces its value-relevance. This link between the integrity of accounting information and its usefulness to market participants supports the need for ongoing regulatory activity to improve the integrity of the financial reporting process.

This thesis examines the extent to which benchmark beating by Australian firms around the earnings level and earnings changes thresholds can be reliably interpreted as evidence of earnings management. A number of recent academic papers challenge the earnings management explanation for the observed kinks in the distribution of net Income. In response to this criticisms, this thesis is motivated to conduct tests of earnings management with a refined methodology of selecting a subset of firms immediately above the threshold that have a priori incentives to achieve the benchmark. This approach allows for investigations to focus on benchmark beating observations where earnings manipulations would be more prevalent and thereby provide a powerful test for the existence of opportunistic reporting. The paper uses a number of unexpected accruals measures including the Kothari et al. (2005) performance matched models. In testing the hypotheses, this thesis utilises two approaches which were; the regression approach and the test of difference of means approach. Based on a broad sample drawn from all listed Australian firms for the years 1995-2007, small profit firms and small increase firms with high price-to-sales ratio were found to have evidence consistent with opportunistic benchmark beating behaviour. Similar results are also documented for benchmark beating firms with low book-to-market (high market-to-book) ratio. This thesis also finds that firms with equity offering incentives who reported improvement in earnings display unexpected accruals consistent with earnings management. In addition, the accounting behaviour of firms which previously incurred a loss is consistent with earnings management explanation. Firms with long strings of earnings increases also appear to use accounting discretion in order to avoid earnings deterioration. Similarly, evidence of earnings management are also displayed by small profit firms which have consistently reported negative earnings. Finally, this thesis provides evidence that resolves the apparent paradox that benchmark beating is evidence of earnings management which is devoid of the statistical artefact argument posited by Durtschi and Easton (2005) and Durtschi and Easton (2008).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 123-128).

Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 66-69). Also available online in Scholars' Bank; and in ProQuest, free to University of Oregon users.

Empirical studies have found that managers choose debt rather than equity to avoid EPS dilution and buy back outstanding shares to boost EPS, I thus explore the resulting effect of EPS on leverage. A firm’s leverage is negatively influenced by the level of its EPS. I also find that fluctuations in EPS have large effects on leverage and these effects persist for at least a decade. Besides, the negative impact of EPS on leverage becomes much stronger after the passage of SOX, in which period managers engage in more actions of debt-equity choices or stock repurchases with the sole purpose of manipulating EPS. Furthermore, managers’ equity incentives and corporate governance are two economic mechanisms through which EPS negatively influences leverage.

abstract: In this dissertation, I examine the source of some of the anomalous capital market outcomes that have been documented for firms with high accruals. Chapter 2 develops and implements a methodology that decomposes a firm's discretionary accruals into a firm-specific and an industry-specific component. I use this decomposition to investigate which component drives the subsequent negative returns associated with firms with high discretionary accruals. My results suggest that these abnormal returns are driven by the firm-specific component of discretionary accruals. Moreover, although industry-specific discretionary accruals do not directly contribute towards this anomaly, I find that it is precisely when industry-specific discretionary accruals are high that firms with high firm-specific discretionary accruals subsequently earn these negative returns. While consistent with irrational mispricing or a rational risk premium associated with high discretionary accruals, these findings also support a transactions-cost based explanation for the accruals anomaly whereby search costs associated with distinguishing between value-relevant and manipulative discretionary accruals can induce investors to overlook potential earnings manipulation. Chapter 3 extends the decomposition to examine the role of firm-specific and industry-specific discretionary accruals in explaining the subsequent market underperformance and negative analysts' forecast errors documented for firms issuing equity. I examine the post-issue market returns and analysts' forecast errors for a sample of seasoned equity issues between 1975 and 2004 and find that offering-year firm-specific discretionary accruals can partially explain these anomalous capital market outcomes. Nonetheless, I find this predictive power of firm-specific accruals to be more pronounced for issues that occur during 1975 - 1989 compared to issues taking place between 1990 and 2004. Additionally, I find no evidence that investors and analysts are more overoptimistic about the prospects of issuers that have both high firm-specific and industry-specific discretionary accruals (compared to firms with high discretionary accruals in general). The results indicate no role for industry-specific discretionary accruals in explaining overoptimistic expectations from seasoned equity issues and suggest the importance of firm-specific factors in inducing earnings manipulation surrounding equity issues. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Business Administration 2011

A contabilidade brasileira passou por mudanças normativas que deixaram suas demonstrações de acordo com o padrão internacional. Pesquisas realizadas com empresas de capital aberto em vários países do mundo indicam que essa nova norma tende a melhorar a qualidade da informação e deixá-la mais comparável e transparente. Diante disso, o estudo tem como objetivo analisar o impacto da adoção do International Financial Reporting Standard sobre os níveis de gerenciamento de resultados das companhias brasileiras de capital aberto (com exceção das instituições financeiras). A hipótese desenvolvida é de que a nova norma reduz o gerenciamento de resultados nas empresas brasileiras. Os dados foram extraídos das demonstrações contábeis trimestrais dos bancos de dados do Economática e da Comissão de Valores Mobiliários referentes ao período de 2006 a 2011. Para alcançar o objetivo da pesquisa, foi examinada por meio de um modelo proposto a relação entre as variáveis accruals discrionários e a aderência do International Financial Reporting Standard. Na equação, além dessas, foram inseridas as variáveis de controle como o nível de endividamento, o fluxo de caixa operacional, o retorno sobre o ativo e o tamanho da empresa. Para o cálculo dos accruals discricionários foi empregado o Modelo de Jones Modificado. Com base no modelo proposto, foram utilizadas várias técnicas estatísticas e aplicou-se o teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov para analisar se a amostra possui dados distribuídos normalmente. Em seguida, foi analisada a correlação de Spearman entre as variáveis do modelo proposto e analisada as médias dos accruals, por meio do teste U de Mann-Whitney. Por fim, foi elaborada a análise de regressão com dados dispostos em painel com correção de Newey- West. A correlação e o teste de médias corroboraram a hipótese desenvolvida, porém aregressão não confirmou a hipótese, com significância estatística, de que o novo padrão contábil reduziu o nível de gerenciamento de resultados nas divulgações das demonstrações elaboradas com a adoção das normas IFRS pelas empresas brasileiras de capital aberto. / The Brazilian accounting has undergone regulatory changes that have left their statements according to international standard. Research conducted with publicly traded companies in various countries around the world indicate that this new standard tends to improve the quality of information and make it more comparable and transparent. Thus, the study aims to analyze the impact of adopting International Financial Reporting Standard on the levels of earnings management of Brazilian companies traded (excluding financial institutions). The hypothesis is that the new standard reduces the earnings management in Brazilian companies. Data were extracted from the quarterly financial statements of databases Economática and Comissão de Valores Mobiliários for the period 2006 to 2011. To achieve the objectives of the study was examined by means of a model the relationship between the variables discretionary accruals and International Financial Reporting Standard. In the equation, beyond these, the control variables were entered as the level of debt, the operating cash flow, return on assets and firm size. For the calculation of discretionary accruals, we employed the Modified Jones Model. Based on the proposed model, several statistical techniques were used and applied the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to examine whether the sample has normally distributed data. Next, we analyzed the Spearman correlation between the variables of the model and analyzed the average, by means of the U of Mann-Whitney. Finally, we elaborate regression analysis with data arranged in a panel with Newey-West correction. The correlation and mean test corroborated the hypothesis developed, but the regression did not confirm the hypothesis with statistical significance that the new accounting standard reduced the level of earnings management disclosures in the financial statements prepared with the adoption of IFRS for publicly traded Brazilian companies.

Studien Nyckeltal som indikationer på earnings management hade som syfte att ta fram ett verktyg som kan användas i de finansiella rapporterna för att upptäcka företag där en större sannolikhet för earnings management föreligger. Studien har sin utgångspunkt i en forskning utförd av Vladu, Amat och Cuzdriorean som publicerades år 2016. I studien appliceras det tillvägagångssätt och de tolv nyckeltal forskarna använde för att ta fram en modell som kan appliceras i den svenska kontexten. Nyckeltalen som används är framtagna för att fånga upp förvrängningar i de finansiella påståenden eller betingelser i företagets ekonomiska miljö som kan skapa incitament och öka sannolikheten för EM. I en komparativ två-fallstudie utvidgas förhållandeanalysen med statistiska tekniker som testar nyckeltalens diskriminanteffekt, relevans och bidrag samt förmåga att urskilja företag från två olika grupper. Grupperna av företag är följande: företag som är utpekade för att ha använt EM och företag som är kända för att följa god redovisning. Resultatet visade att de nyckeltal som bäst urskiljer företag som ansågs ha använt EM är: SG (ökad nettoomsättning) och CFO1 (index på kassaflöde från den löpande verksamheten), när företagen som analyseras består av både varu- och tjänsteproducerande företag. Det innebär att en ökad sannolikhet för EM förelåg vid en försämrad försäljning och ett kassaflöde som avtog mer än årets resultat. När enbart varuproducerandeföretag ingick i urvalet visades även LI1 (index av hävstångseffekten) som ett användbart nyckeltal. Det innebär att sannolikheten för EM ökade ytterligare vid en ökad skuldsättning. Studien har tagit fram två modeller som har lyckats utpeka 88,6 % respektive 100 % av företagen som varit anklagade för att ha manipulerat sin redovisning. Däremot kan modellerna anses vara beroende av studiens urval och därav kan brister förekomma i anledning av huruvida modellen skall kunna fungera som ett självständigt verktyg på svenska företag.

This thesis investigates the association between corporate governance mechanisms and earnings management in industrial Jordanian firms. We identify the most important corporate governance mechanisms that have an effect on accounting choices and operating decisions, investigate the tools that managers use to decrease or increase earnings in Jordanian industrial firms, and finally, determine which accruals model is more powerful to detect earnings management in Jordanian industrial companies. Historically, corporate governance mechanisms are considered to be the most important factors in assessing and monitoring the effectiveness of financial reporting (Brown, Pottb and Wömpenerb, 2014), and may be considered to be a cornerstone of control in general. Internal and external corporate governance is established by senior managers to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of operations and reduce the incidence of error or manipulation in accounting systems (Lee, 2006). Earnings management is considered one of the most important issues related to financial reporting, particularly after the Enron and WorldCom scandals. Earnings management behaviours are also related to low levels of corporate social responsibility and improvements in both areas would be expected to lead to improvements in the quality of corporate governance. Mixed methodology is used in this research including both quantitative and qualitative analyses. The quantitative analysis used accruals models the Standard Jones model (Jones 1991), modified Jones model (Dechow, Sloan and Sweeney, 1995), and the Peasnell, Pope and Young margin model (2000) as measures of earnings management and used these variables in conjunction with corporate governance factors. Annual financial reports that were published by the Amman stock market over the period 2005 to 2012 were used to extract the data for corporate governance characteristics of the firms. The qualitative analysis involved semi-structured interviews, conducted with general managers, financial managers and internal audit managers to provide in-depth information about corporate governance issues that we could not investigate easily through quantitative methods and to provide understanding of the context for the firm s earnings management. The qualitative analysis identified a range of motivations for earnings management in Jordanian firms including attempts to reduce customs fees; tax avoidance; the desire to attract more investors and increase share price, and the desire to increase management compensation. We find also that the Peasnell, Pope and Young margin model (2000) is a more powerful model for explaining earnings management in Jordan than the more commonly used accruals models. Quantitative results indicate that the ownership structure of the business plays a more significant role in constraining earnings management than characteristics relating to the board of directors or the characteristics of the audit process. Furthermore, the interviews also explored in depth a number of cultural factors and external economic factors, which were found to be related to the incidence of earnings management. Relevant cultural factors include particularly the tribal system that operates in Jordan, which creates pressures on firms likely to increase earnings management and external economic factors include the recent Middle East revolutions and adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards. The findings could be useful to investors, senior managers in Jordanian industrial firms, and legislators in Jordan, in relation to decisions about how to enhance the quality of monitoring mechanisms and constrain the incidence of earnings management. Our methodology and evaluation of standard accruals models in this context may also prove useful to other researchers on earnings management in developing economies.