This thesis is a critical review of two central theories in the modern sustainability paradigm – namely… (1) the theory that the Earth’s geosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and atmosphere form a complex adaptive system – the Earth system, and (2) the theory that all human activities are intrinsically dependent on, and constrained by, non-anthropogenic states and processes in the Earth system. The thesis explains the origins and the logic of these theories, and subjects them to formal, semi-formal and comparative criticism. Ultimately, it refutes both on formal and comparative grounds. Most importantly, it shows that theories 1 and 2 are in conflict with the theory of evolution by natural selection, and with the hypothetico-deductive model of scientific research. It also shows that they are in conflict – both directly and indirectly – with the known laws of physics. While it is true that all human activities rely on biospheric resources today, there are no physical, or natural laws that make it impossible for us to break those dependencies over time. In fact, the thesis shows that it is possible in principle to satisfy any human need by strictly artificial means, and abiotic resources that exist in abundance both inside and outside of the Earth system. An important corollary to this finding is that social and economic progress is not inextricably tied – as the modern sustainability literature suggests – to the exploitation of finite and rapidly diminishing resources here on Earth. Theories 1 and 2 both contribute to this confusion, and hence, to the bleak and irrational Malthusianism that still permeates so much of the sustainability domain. In addition, they appear to blind many researchers to the ecological benefits of technological development. That humanity can break its dependence on the biosphere is a very good thing for its non-human inhabitants. As we become more technologically advanced, we will find it easier and easier to sustain ourselves without destabilizing the world's ecosystems. The Earth’s biosphere is an oasis of beauty, complexity and connection in a Universe that is overwhelmingly empty and boring. As the only animals capable of appreciating this fact, we have a clear moral duty to protect and preserve it. And we can protect and preserve it. If we just let go of the religious ideas that have dominated our field since its inception, we will find that our potential to do good in the world is far greater than we previously imagined.

This thesis examines how early warning signals perform when tested on climate systems thought to exhibit future tipping point behaviour. A tipping point in a dynamical system is a large and sudden change to the state of the system, usually caused by changes in external forcing. This is due to the state the system occupies becoming unstable, causing the system to settle to a new stable state. In many cases, there is a degree of irreversibility once the tipping point has been passed, preventing the system from reverting back to its original state without a large reversal in forcing. Passing tipping points in climate systems, such as the Amazon rainforest or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is particularly dangerous as the effects of this will be globally felt. Fortunately there is potential for early warning signals, designed to warn that the system is approaching a tipping point. Generally, these early warning signals are based on analysis of the time series of the system, such as searching for ‘critical slowing down’, usually estimated by an increasing lag-1 autocorrelation (AR(1)). The idea here is that as a system’s state becomes less stable, it will start to react more sluggishly to short term perturbations. While early warning signals have been tested extensively in simple models and on palaeoclimate data, there has been very little research into how these behave in complex models and observed data. Here, early warning signals are tested on climate systems that show tipping point behaviour in general circulation models. Furthermore, it examines why early warning signals might fail in certain cases and provides prospect for more ‘system specific indicators’ based on properties of individual tipping elements. The thesis also examines how slowing down in a system might affect ecosystems that are being driven by it.

The land ecosystems in northern high latitudes (>45° N) occupy 22% of the global surface and store more than 1600 Pg soil organic carbon. Warming in this region has been documented during the past decades. Warming-induced changes in regional carbon dynamics are expected to loom large in the global carbon cycle and exert large feedbacks to the global climate system. Numerous Earth System Models have been widely used to quantify the response of terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics to climatic changes. However, predictions of terrestrial ecosystem carbon responses to increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate change is still uncertain due to model limitations. The limitations include relatively low levels of representation of ecosystem processes that determine the exchanges of water, energy, and carbon between land ecosystems and the atmosphere and omitting some key biogeochemical mechanisms. To improve model realism and provide a better projection of the Arctic carbon dynamics, this dissertation developed three new versions of a process-based biogeochemistry models that involve more fundamental processes of terrestrial ecosystems. First, microbial dynamics and enzyme kinetics that catalyze soil carbon decomposition have been incorporated into the extant terrestrial ecosystem model TEM to remedy the inadequate representation of soil decomposition process. Furthermore, a vital microbial life-history trait, microbial dormancy, has been implemented into previous microbial-based model to consider the impacts of microbial dormancy in modeling. Additionally, the role of moss in the Arctic terrestrial ecosystem carbon quantification was also demonstrated by incorporating moss and higher plant interactions in modelling.

The global carbon cycle is a central part of the climate system which forms a direct link between human activity and climate change. This thesis presents my contribution to the field of research into the global carbon cycle with complex numerical models and its use to inform climate mitigation policy. Firstly, I present work I led to build, configure and apply the Hadley Centre Earth System Model, HadGEM2-ES, that successfully delivered the CMIP5 simulations. Then I present work that led to the design of the next generation of coupled carbon cycle intercomparison experiments. The aim of these experiments is to understand and quantify future centuryscale changes in land and ocean carbon storage and fluxes and their impact on climate projections. A set of ESM simulations was devised, with a common protocol, which all participating modelling centres should follow. A theoretical framework is commonly used to quantify carbon cycle feedbacks. I played an active role in its recommended use and definitions of terms. A feedback analysis I performed of future carbon cycle projections formed a central component of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. This is the first time that that the IPCC carbon cycle chapter had a section devoted to the feedbacks and future projections from coupled carbon cycle ESMs. Finally, I present three specific applications of my research and their relevance to climate mitigation policy. 1) I was the first to define the concept of committed ecosystem changes and demonstrate that ecosystems may continue to respond for many years or decades after climate is stabilised, leading to the recommendation that such committed change should be included in definitions of dangerous climate change. 2) I performed the first Earth System model analysis of the carbon emissions reductions required to follow the RCP pathways leading to the IPCC AR5 statement that, “For RCP2.6, an average 50% emission reduction is required by 2050 relative to 1990 levels”. 3) My research on carbon cycle feedbacks, especially the response of the carbon cycle to low CO2 pathways, found that models predict significant weakening, or even potential reversal, of natural carbon sinks in response to removal of CO2, which potentially hinders the effectiveness of the negative emissions. My research presented in this thesis has been influential in setting international research priorities in this field. It continues to inform global negotiations on climate mitigation policy.

The tropical hardwood forests of south Florida persist as well-drained patches of broadleaf forest separated by brackish water swamp, marsh, or pineland. In this dissertation, a functional trait approach was used to understand the structure and dynamics of these communities and their responses to abiotic and biotic variation. Twenty-seven permanent plots (20 x 20 m2) were established across the south Florida landscape, representing four sub-regions: Everglades marsh, Long Pine Key, Upper Keys, and Lower Keys. Community weighted mean trait values for four of six selected traits showed significant inter-sub-regional variation. Out of them, three traits (specific leaf area, tree height, and leaf phosphorus) increased significantly from dry and low productivity Florida Keys in the south to the moist and productive areas on the south Florida mainland, while wood density showed the opposite pattern. Trait variance ratios (T-statistic metrics) was used to explore internal filtering (processes that operate within a community) and external filtering (processes that operate at larger scale than that of the individual population or community) on community structure. Both external and internal filtering in the functional composition of south Florida hardwood hammock forest were important for local communities differing in freshwater accessibility, or that occupy different positions along strong edaphic or climatic gradients. To understand the underlying mechanisms that drive species assembly during forest succession in Florida dry sub-tropical forest, 13 leaf, stem, reproductive, and architectural traits of resident tree species across the successional gradient were measured. Tests of null models showed that younger communities are shaped by environmentally driven processes, while mature communities are shaped by competitively driven processes. The overall trait similarities among species present in North Key Largo tropical dry forest suggest that tree species are specialists on the local environment, and their ability to survive and grow in a stressful environment may be more important than competition for resources at larger scale. Moreover, tree species in these forests may exhibit specialization or trait plasticity in coping with drought by changes in their stomatal morphology or activity, allowing for a balance between gas exchange and water loss in a periodically stressful environment. A significant negative correlation between stomatal density and size, and a positive correlation between leaf δ13C and stomatal density were observed across habitat gradient for one of the dominant hardwood hammock species (Bursera simaruba). Small and densely distributed stomates in tandem seems to represent a strategy that allows hammock species to conserve water under physiological drought. Furthermore, findings from this work also showed both intra- and inter-specific trait variation at regional and local scales influence community assembly patterns in hardwood hammock communities in South Florida.

The distribution and geologic history of nitrogen on Earth is poorly known. Traditionally thought to be an inert gas, with only a small but important biologic cycle, geochemical investigation highlights that it can also be present in rocks and minerals. Even at low concentrations, the great mass of the solid Earth allows for the possibility of substantial N mass and cycling in the geosphere over Earth history. Thus, the assumption that N on the surface of the Earth has remained in steady state over Earth history can be questioned. The research goals of this thesis are to investigate the Earth System N cycle using both large- and small-scale approaches. I present a comprehensive literature compilation to ascertain the N budget of Earth. Determining the total abundance of N in all reservoirs of the Earth, including the atmosphere, oceans, crust, mantle, and core is crucial to a discussion of its cycling in the past. This budget study suggests that the majority of planetary N is likely in the core, with the Bulk Silicate Earth a more massive reservoir than the atmosphere. I also present experimental data and data from lunar samples as added context. As quantification of geologic N is difficult, I present research detailing the adaptation of a fluorometric technique common in aquatic geochemistry for use on geologic samples. I compare fluorometry analysis of geochemical standards to several other techniques: colourimetry, elemental analyzer mass spectrometry, and neutron activation analysis. Fluorometry generally behaves well for crystalline samples, and is a relatively quick and easy alternative to more expensive or intensive techniques. As a preliminary application, I have determined a N budget estimate for the continental crust based on analysis of crystalline crustal rocks and glacial tills from North America. This budget is consistent with published work, suggesting about 2 × 1018 kg N, or half a present atmospheric mass of N, is in the continental crust. I also present a geochemical study measuring N-isotopes and redox sensitive trace elements from a syn-glacial unit deposited during the the Marinoan Snowball Earth. Snowball Earth events were the most extreme glaciations in Earth history. The measurements presented herein are the first to quantify biologic activity via N-isotopes as well as the redox state of the atmosphere and ocean using trace elements from this intriguing time period in Earth history. The data suggests that there was active N- fixing in the biosphere, persistent but limited O2, nitrification, and nearly quantitative denitrification during the glaciation. After the glacial interval, O2 levels increased and denitrification levels dropped, indicated by near-modern δ15N values. The combined use of N-isotope with redox sensitive trace elements provides a more nuanced and comprehensive view in reconstructing past ocean and biologic conditions. Lastly, I present an Earth-system N cycle model with nominal results. Previous modelling efforts have agreed with the traditional notion that atmospheric N-levels have remained constant over geologic time. This is in contrast with modern geochemical evidence suggesting net transport of N from the surface into the mantle. The aim, in turn, of this model is to model N cycling over Earth history by explicitly incorporating both biologic and geologic fluxes. The model is driven by a mantle cooling history and calculated plate tectonic speed, as well as a prescribed atmospheric O2 evolution history. This approach is the first of its kind, to my knowledge, and produces stable model runs over Earth history. While tuning and sensitivity studies may be required for publishable results, nominal runs are compelling. In model output, atmospheric N varies by an factor of 2 − 3 over Earth history, and the availability of nutrients (i.e., PO4) exerts a strong control on biologic activity and movement of N throughout the Earth system. Such a planetary perspective on N serves as an entry point into discussions of planetary evolution as a whole. With the great increase in the number of discovered exoplanets, the scientific community is charged with developing models of planetary evolution and factors that promote habitability. Comparison of Earth to its solar system neighbours and future data on exoplanets will allow a system of evolution pathways to be explored, with the role of N expected to be prominent in discussions of habitability and planetary evolution. / Graduate / 0996 / 0425 / bwjohnso@uvic.ca

Thesis advisor: Hilary Palevsky / The ocean plays a key role in global carbon cycling, taking up CO2 from the atmosphere. A fraction of this CO2 is converted into organic carbon through primary production in the surface ocean and sequestered in the deep ocean through a process known as the biological pump. The ability of the biological pump to sequester carbon away from the atmosphere is influenced by the interaction between the annual cycle of ocean mixed layer depth (MLD), primary production, and ecosystem processes that influence export efficiency. Gravitational sinking of particulate organic carbon (POC) is the largest component of the biological pump and the aspect that is best represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). I use ESM data from CESM2, an ESM participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), to investigate how a high-emissions climate change scenario will impact POC flux globally and regionally over the 21st century. The model simulates a 4.4% decrease in global POC flux at the 100 m depth horizon, from 7.12 Pg C/yr in the short-term (2014-2034) to 6.81 Pg C/yr in the long-term (2079-2099), indicating that the biological pump will become less efficient overall at sequestering carbon. However, the extent of change varies across the globe, including the largest POC flux declines in the North Atlantic, where the maximum annual MLD is projected to shoal immensely. In the future, a multi-model comparison across ESMs will allow for further analysis on the variability of these changes to the biological pump. / Thesis (BS) — Boston College, 2021. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Earth and Environmental Science.

<p>Chemical weathering of highly reactive mafic and ultramafic igneous rocks may be a key sink in the global carbon cycle. Understanding how uplift of these rocks during arc-arc and arc-continent collisions through earth history has affected the evolution of global climate, including the onset of icehouse periods, requires improved constraints on the relative sensitivity of their weathering rates to physical erosion vs. climate. If weathering rates depend chiefly on erosion, then tectonic uplift of mafic and ultramafic rocks may have a strongly destabilizing effect on global climate. Conversely, if weathering rates are limited primarily by temperature or runoff, then a negative feedback mechanism between weathering and climate may attenuate the effects of rock uplift. This work characterizes the relationship between chemical weathering rates, physical erosion rates, and climate in tropical, montane watersheds in Puerto Rico that are underlain by volcanic arc rocks and associated ophiolitic serpentinite. Key to this analysis are new constraints on long-term erosion rates on these rocks from cosmogenic Cl-36 produced <em>in situ</em> in magnetite. These cosmogenic erosion rates are paired with classical measurements of stream solute fluxes and sediment geochemistry across runoff gradients to quantify the limits to volcanic arc rock and serpentinite weathering rates. </p> <p><br></p> <p>This work is divided into three chapters. Chapter 2 constrains the altitude scaling behavior of Cl-36 production in magnetite. This allows erosion rates to be determined more accurately in watersheds near sea level in Puerto Rico. Chapter 3 demonstrates that volcanic arc rock weathering rates in the humid tropics are more strongly limited by physical erosion than by climatic factors. However, a positive correlation between erosion and runoff observed in this landscape may enhance the coupling between climate and weathering rates. Chapter 4 finds that, in contrast to volcanic arc rocks, serpentinite weathering is strongly limited by runoff and weakly limited by erosion. These results are presented as empirical power-law relationships that can be readily applied in global carbon cycle modeling.  </p>

Forests perform many important ecological functions and provide numerous environmental services to humanity. Currently forests are under ever increasing pressures from humans through deforestation, changes in land use, and anthropogenic climate change. Managed forests play an important role in supplying forest products to the global population, necessitating the need to predict how forests will respond to climate change and how this will influence future wood product supplies. In this dissertation I used loblolly pine (Pinus taeda), the most extensively cultivated tree species in the United States, as a study system to simulate how climate change and forest management could alter the dynamics of managed forests in the future. Using the land component (the Community Land Model) of the widely used Community Earth System Model (CESM), I developed and validated a set of tools necessary to simulate the loblolly pine plantation system using the vegetation demography model embedded in CESM (FATES). This included developing a representation of loblolly pine using data from the literature, which was better able to capture forest growth and development observed in field studies than FATES's existing conifer tree representation. I added the ability to simulate several aspects of forest management not previously supported in FATES by creating the Vegetation Management Module, which I showed was able to realistically reproduce the common management practice of stand thinning. I used these new tools to perform simulations of how loblolly pine will grow across the Southeastern United States until the end of the 21st century, under the high and low climate change scenarios developed by the scientific community in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our experiments show that loblolly pine productivity may as much as double by the end of the century, with total wood harvest over that period increasing by almost half. I also showed that different management activities had significant effects on loblolly plantation yields, with mid-rotation stand thinning having an effect under both climate scenarios on par with increases due to the extreme climate change scenario SSP5 RCP8.5. I showed that these changes in wood yields could decrease the forest area in the Southeast required to meet the wood product demands over the rest of the century. These changes in plantation productivity could interact with socioeconomic factors to drive changes in land use and carbon storage in the Southeastern U.S. This work increases our understanding of how managed forests in the U.S.\ will be affected by climate change and how our management choices modulate that response. The techniques and tools developed here open up new areas of research into the role of forest management in the climate system. / Doctor of Philosophy / Forests benefit humans by regulating Earth's climate and by providing natural resources such as wood. In the Southeastern United States forestry is an important industry. Tree farms of southern pine trees produce a large percentage of the region's wood. Predicting how forests will grow in the future is important for planning and making investments. However, the burning of fossil fuels has increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and is changing Earth's climate. This is affecting how fast trees grow and how much wood can be harvested from forests. The methods that foresters have traditionally used to predict how trees will grow in the future do not account for climate change, and thus may not be as accurate in the future. An alternative is to use the computer models that scientists have developed to predict both how global climate will change in the future and how forests are influenced by climate. These computer programs can be used to predict how natural forests will grow in the future, but aren't set up to predict managed forests well. I made changes to one of these programs to make it possible to simulate the managed loblolly pine forests of the Southeastern United States. First, I tested these changes to make sure that simulated forests grew like real forests do today. Then I simulated how pine forests in Southeastern United States could grow over the next century with climate change. I found that pine forests will grow faster and allow more wood to be harvested as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases. If climate changes are extreme, loblolly forests could produce 70\% more wood than today by the end of the 21st century. I also showed that the manner in which forests were managed in simulations changes the amount of wood they produced, with some management practices increasing wood harvested by 50\% over the rest of the century. Because climate change could increase the amount of wood that can be produced from a fixed area of forest, I investigated how this might change the area of forest plantation in the Southeastern United States. Based on projections of demand for wood for the rest of the century I calculated how much loblolly pine forest would be needed to produce this wood over the next century. I found that increases in forest productivity due to climate change and forest management could decrease the forest area required to grow the wood we need. This could change how we use forests in the Southeastern United States, which in turn could have impacts on the climate.

Particulate matter suspended in air (i.e. aerosol particles) exerts a substantial influence on the climate of our planet and is responsible for causing severe public health problems in many regions across the globe. Human activities have altered the natural and anthropogenic emissions of aerosol particles through direct emissions or indirectly by modifying natural sources. The climate effects of the latter have been largely overlooked. Humans have dramatically altered the land surface of the planet causing changes in natural aerosol emissions from vegetated areas. Regulation on anthropogenic and natural aerosol emissions have the potential to affect the climate on regional to global scales. Furthermore, the regional climate effects of aerosol particles could potentially be very different than the ones caused by other climate forcers (e.g. well mixed greenhouse gases). The main objective of this work was to investigate the climatic effects of land use and air pollution via aerosol changes. Using numerical model simulations it was found that land use changes in the past millennium have likely caused a positive radiative forcing via aerosol climate interactions. The forcing is an order of magnitude smaller and has an opposite sign than the radiative forcing caused by direct aerosol emissions changes from other human activities. The results also indicate that future reductions of fossil fuel aerosols via air quality regulations may lead to an additional warming of the planet by mid-21st century and could also cause an important Arctic amplification of the warming. In addition, the mean position of the intertropical convergence zone and the Asian monsoon appear to be sensitive to aerosol emission reductions from air quality regulations. For these reasons, climate mitigation policies should take into consideration aerosol air pollution, which has not received sufficient attention in the past.