The 1999 earthquakes revealed serious gaps in the Turkish disaster management system. The lack of coordination and cooperation between governmental and non-governmental organizations, limits in the legal framework and the lack of policies and plans about disaster preparedness and mitigation are basic. It is highly relevant therefore to expose these deficiencies and find which changes are necessary for capacity building in civil initiatives and which policies can be put into practice to form a strong and a sustainable organizational structure between governmental organizations and civil initiatives. This required reconsidering the events of 1999 Marmara earthquakes and civil initiatives&rsquo / activities. The analyses have been made among civil initiatives to expose their objectives, their response to earthquakes and future plans. Futher, this required discussion of the current state of disaster management system and legal structure. Findings are that a number of creative activities of civil initiatives can be observed after the Marmara earthquakes. However, the existing level of collaboration with governmental organizations is inadequate, considering the magnitude of disasters taking place in Turkey and the degree of the people&rsquo / s vulnerability. Efforts such as new draft of law of Turgey Emergency Management General Directorate (TEMGD) seem to provide means to meet the requirements. This draft law could provide the tools to accommodate civil initiatives The law could be revised so as to maintain a legal basis for civil initiatives&rsquo / activities as part of disaster management system indicating that governmental organizations should work together in coordination with civil initiatives. Secondly, to encourage voluntary activities, a number of provisions should be available such as life insurance against accidents for the accredited volunteers. Thirdly, TEGMD should also act to find partners for supporting civil initiatives in their financial, personnel training and management needs. With increasing conviction in the need for participatory approaches and people-oriented developments, civil initiatives are committed to face challenges in mitigating and preparing for the variety of disasters facing Turkey.

Gemlik County is located in the Marmara Region (NW Turkey), which has been affected by destructive earthquakes sourced from North Anatolian Fault System throughout its history. The bulk of the settlement rests on alluvial deposits of the Gemlik pull-apart basin. So, it is vital to investigate the foundation soils in this basin and the response of them to earthquakes. Many earthquake codes were established by the authorities in different countries of the world to estimate the possible ground shaking and seismic loads which may act on buildings. In this study, Turkish Earthquake Code (TEC-1998) and Eurocode-8 (EN-1998) have been utilized. The analyses showed that EN-1998 results in more conservative estimates relative to TEC-1998, in terms of spectral ordinates. The source of difference between TEC-1998 and EN-1998 has been investigated and three possible reasons have been identified. The variation is probably due to the different seismic characteristics of Turkey and Europe, different soil amplification levels defined by the codes, and different soil classification procedures of the codes.

[Truncated abstract] Perth is the capital city of Western Australia (WA) and the home of more than three quarters of the population in the state. It is located in the southwest WA (SWWA), a low to moderate seismic region but the seismically most active region in Australia. The 1968 ML6.9 Meckering earthquake, which was about 130 km from the Perth Metropolitan Area (PMA), caused only minor to moderate damage in PMA. With the rapid increase in population in PMA, compared to 1968, many new structures including some high-rise buildings have been constructed in PMA. Moreover, increased seismic activities and a few strong ground motions have been recorded in the SWWA. Therefore it is necessary to evaluate the seismic risk of PMA under the current conditions. This thesis presents results from a comprehensive study of seismic risk of PMA. This includes development of ground motion attenuation relations, ground motion time history simulation, site characterization and response analysis, and structural response analysis. As only a very limited number of earthquake strong ground motion records are available in SWWA, it is difficult to derive a reliable and unbiased strong ground motion attenuation model based on these data. To overcome this, in this study a combined approach is used to simulate ground motions. First, the stochastic approach is used to simulate ground motion time histories at various epicentral distances from small earthquake events. Then, the Green's function method, with the stochastically simulated time histories as input, is used to generate large event ground motion time histories. Comparing the Fourier spectra of the simulated motions with the recorded motions of a ML6.2 event in Cadoux in June 1979 and a ML5.5 event in Meckering in January 1990, provides good evidence in support of this method. This approach is then used to simulate a series of ground motion time histories from earthquakes of varying magnitudes and distances. ... The responses of three typical Perth structures, namely a masonry house, a middle-rise reinforced concrete frame structure, and a high-rise building of reinforced concrete frame with core wall on various soil sites subjected to the predicted earthquake ground motions of different return periods are calculated. Numerical results indicate that the one-storey unreinforced masonry wall (UMW) building is unlikely to be damaged when subjected to the 475-year return period earthquake ground motion. However, it will suffer slight damage during the 2475-return period earthquake ground motion at some sites. The six-storey RC frame with masonry infill wall is also safe under the 475-year return period ground motion. However, the infill masonry wall will suffer severe damage under the 2475-year return period earthquake ground motion at some sites. The 34-storey RC frame with core wall will not experience any damage to the 475-year return period ground motion. The building will, however, suffer light to moderate damage during the 2475-year return period ground motion, but it might not be life threatening.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2005. / Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 173-185). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.

Neste trabalho estudamos o modelo Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC). Fortes correlações espaciais e temporais dificultam a obtenção de resultados analíticos para este modelo. Assim, nossas investigações foram realizadas através de simulações computacionais. A fim de identificar o regime estacionário de forma eficiente e econômica desenvolvemos algumas estatrégias. Também percebemos que a escolha adequada da configuração inicial pode antecipar ou retardar o início do regime estacionário. Por fim, a criticalidade do modelo foi estudada através de uma abordagem totalmente nova. Em vez de tentarmos identificar o comportamento crítico do sistema por meio da distribuição de avalanches, definimos uma grandeza , que em um processo ramificado simples seria a taxa de ramificação do sistema. Analisando o comportamento dessa variável em um espaço de fases verificamos que o modelo OFC e sua versão aleatória (que de antemão sabemos que só apresenta criticalidade no regime conservativo) tem um comportamento bastante similar. Obtivemos, ao contrário do que se acreditava, fortes evidências de que o modelo OFC apenas exibe criticalidade no regime conservativo. / We have investigated the Olami-Feder-Christensen model. The model presents strong temporal and spatial correlations what makes it very difficult to perform analytical calculations. So our treatment was numerical. We developed strategies to identify the regime with high level of accuracy. We noticed that depending on the initial configurations, the statistical stationary state can be reached faster. Finally we have investigated the criticality of the model through new strategy. Instead of looking for powers laws, we defined a quantity , very similar to the branching ratio in a simple branching process. We were able to show the behavior of the Olami-Feder-Christensen and the random version of this model are similar. We got strong numerical evidences that, in opposition to previous results, the Olami-Fedel-Christensen model is critical only in the conservative regime.

Ce travail de thèse a pour objectif la reproduction et l'analyse du comportement invariant d'échelle, tel que l'on peut le trouver dans la nature et en particulier au niveau d'une faille tectonique. Pour cela, une expérience reproduisant la structure locale d'une faille par le cisaillement d'un milieu granulaire 2D a été montée et exploitée. L'utilisation de conditions aux limites périodiques dans cette expérience permet l'acquisition d'une statistique très riche, principal défaut des expériences présentes dans la littérature. Le suivi du système est effectué à la fois par des moyens optiques, mécaniques et acoustiques, ces derniers fournissant les informations les plus nombreuses et les plus précises. La dynamique a montré une invariance d'échelle compatible avec les lois statistiques existantes pour les tremblements de terre réels. Les corrélations entre les avalanches et entre les différents moyens de mesure sont analysées. Des expériences complémentaires ont été réalisées pour mieux comprendre les mécanismes à l'œuvre lors du déclenchement d'une avalanche et pendant son déroulement. La principale concerne la propagation d'une onde acoustique au sein d'un milieu granulaire, et a montré qu'une simple mesure de la vitesse de l'onde permet d'obtenir des informations sur la structure interne de l'empilement. L'utilisation d'un matériau photoélastique a permis, suite à une calibration adaptée, de sonder les forces locales au niveau des contacts entre grains et de voir l'évolution des réseaux de force dans le milieu au cours du cisaillement / The aim of this thesis is to reproduce and analyze the scale invariant behavior, as one can find in nature and in particular for a tectonic fault. Thus we set an experiment which reproduces the local structure of a fault thanks to a sheared 2D granular medium. The use of periodic boundaries in the experiment allows us to gain a very rich statistics, which was lacking in previous experiments presented in the literature. The system is monitored by three different methods: optical, mechanical and acoustics, which gives the most numerous and most precise informations. We observed scale invariant dynamics, consistent with statistical laws derived for real earthquakes. We also analyzed the correlations between avalanches and between the three monitoring methods. Additional experiments have been performed to better understand the mecanisms that take place at the triggering and during an avalanche. The main one focuses on sound wave propagation inside a granular pile, and we have shown that a mere velocity measure can give information about the internal structure of the pile. The use of a photoelastic material allows us (with appropriate calibration) to probe local forces at the edges and contacts of the grains and to see the evolution of force chains during the shear

Dans les chaînes de montagnes, les séismes de magnitudes intermédiaires à fortes (Mw>6) déclenchent systématiquement un grand nombre de glissements de terrain responsables de l'introduction de volumes massifs de sédiments dans le réseau fluviatile. L'évacuation progressive de ces sédiments hors de la zone épicentrale affecte la dynamique des rivières et provoque des aléas hydro-sédimentaires dans les plaines alluviales (avulsion des rivières, crues...). La quantification des transferts sédimentaires est essentielle pour mieux comprendre l'évolution des paysages à court et moyen terme (de l'heure au siècle) et permettre une gestion efficace des risques dans les zones d'accumulation. Cependant, les flux de sédiments grossiers étant difficiles à mesurer, les facteurs contrôlant l'évacuation des glissements de terrain restent à ce jour mal compris. Cette thèse a donc porté sur l'étude, via la modélisation, des paramètres influençant la mobilisation des glissements de terrain, la préservation de la capacité de transport la transition entre gorge et plaine alluviale et la dynamique court terme des cônes alluviaux soumis à de forts apports sédimentaires. Les approches développées sont appliquées au contexte de la côte Ouest de la Nouvelle Zélande où la probabilité d'occurrence d'un séisme de magnitude 8 est de 50% dans les 50 ans à venir. Cette problématique à été abordée analytiquement et via une approche numérique avec le modèle 2D d'évolution des paysages et des rivières, Eros. Avec l'approche analytique, nous démontrons que la conservation de la capacité de transport long terme à la transition entre gorges et plaines alluviales est généralement réalisée par le passage à un système en tresse. Nous identifions aussi la variabilité des débits comme facteur dominant de la capacité de transport long terme comparé à l'effet de la végétation riparienne. Avec l'approche numérique, nous utilisons Eros qui est composé 1. d'un modèle hydrodynamique 2D, 2. d'un modèle de transport/dépôt de sédiments et 3. de modèles gérant les flux latéraux d'érosion et de dépôt. La combinaison de ces éléments permet l'émergence de diverses géométries de rivières alluviales (droites/sinueuses ou en tresses) en fonction des forçages externes qu'elles subissent (débit d'eau, flux sédimentaires). L'application d'Eros à des cas naturels a nécessité la validation et la calibration de ses paramètres principaux à l'aide: 1. de solutions analytiques et 2. de la reproduction morphodynamique de systèmes naturels, tel que l'évolution de la rivière Poerua en Nouvelle Zélande suite au glissement de terrain du Mont Adams. Dans la partie aval du bassin, les simulations numériques démontrent les capacités du modèle 1) à prédire efficacement l'évolution de plaines alluviales soumises à plusieurs scénario d'apports sédimentaires massifs et 2) à générer des cartes de risques probabilistes. Dans la partie amont du bassin, les résultats mettent en évidence le rôle clef de la réduction dynamique de largeur des rivières par rapport à la largeur de la gorge fluviatile, sur l'accélération de l'évacuation des sédiments issus des glissements de terrain. Une loi unique caractérisant les temps d'export d'une distribution de glissements de terrain peut être définie en fonction du rapport entre volume de sédiment et capacité de transport initiale de la rivière, permettant ainsi d'estimer leur temps de résidence moyen à 5-30 ans pour un scénario de séisme de Mw=8 beaucoup plus faibles que ceux estimés précédemment (~100 ans). L'approche numérique développée dans ce travail suggère que l'étude de la réponse des chaînes de montagnes à un forçage sismique fort ne peut être effectuée efficacement qu'avec un modèle 2D capable de prendre en compte les non-linéarités entre écoulements des rivières, leurs géométries et le transport sédimentaire. Les résultats obtenus permettent une meilleure caractérisation de la dynamique des paysages à l'échelle du cycle sismique et des aléas à court terme. / In mountainous areas, intermediate to large earthquakes (Mw > 6) systematically trigger a large number of landslides supplying the fluvial network with massive volumes of sediment. The progressive evacuation of the sediment out of the epicentral area alters river dynamics and may cause hydro-sedimentary hazards in alluvial plains (river avulsion, inundations, bank erosion, ...). The quantification of sediment transfers is critical to better understand landscape evolution on short timescales (i.e. hours to centuries) and improve hazard management in deposition areas. However, the factors controlling the coarse sediment transfers are still poorly known due to a lack of field measurements and adequate numerical models. The aim of this work is thus to study, via numerical modeling, the parameters influencing landslides evacuation, the transport capacity variations at the gorge/alluvial plain transition and the short-term dynamics and hazards of alluvial fans. This work is set up in the context of the West Coast of New Zealand (NZ) which presents a 50% probability to experience a magnitude 8 earthquake in the next 50 years. This problematic has been addressed analytically and via a numerical approach. Using the analytical approach, we demonstrate that the conservation of long-term transport capacity at the bedrock gorge and alluvial plain transition usually implies the channel narrowing in the alluvial part that is generally realized by a transition to a braided system. We identify discharge variability as the dominant factor of alluvial river long term transport capacity compared to riparian vegetation. To explore the role of channel self-organization on coarse sediment transport, we use Eros, a 2D morphodynamic model able to simulate landscape evolution improved by a new 2D hydrodynamic model. Combined with a sediment transport/deposition model and lateral fluxes modeling (bank erosion and transverse deposition), Eros allows for the emergence of diverse alluvial river regimes and geometries (e.g. straight/sinuous and braided channels) as a function of the external forcing experienced by the river (water and sediment fluxes). The application of Eros on natural cases has required the validation and calibration of its principal parameters using analytical solutions and the morphodynamic reproduction of natural systems such as the evolution of the Poerua river in New Zealand following the Mount Adams landslide. In the downstream part of the catchment, the ensemble numerical simulations demonstrate Eros abilities to 1) efficiently predict the morphodynamic evolution of alluvial fans submitted to different scenarios of large sediment supplies and 2) generate probabilistic risk maps. In the upstream part, the results highlight the dominant role of dynamic river narrowing reducing export times of landslide-derived sediments. We define a new law characterizing export times as a function of landslide volume and pre-landslide transport capacity that predicts mean residence times for a M8 earthquake in a mountain range of 5-30 yr, much lower than previous estimations of ~ 100 yr. The numerical approach developed in this work suggests that the study of mountain ranges response to severe landslide disruption can only be addressed with a 2D model able to account for the non-linearities between river flow, channel geometry and sediment transport. The results allow for a better characterization of landscape dynamics at the scale of a seismic cycle and hydro-sedimentary hazards in the short term.

The central and eastern United States is subject to seismic hazards from both natural and induced earthquakes, as evidenced by the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence, consisting of at least three magnitude 7 and greater earthquakes, and by four magnitude 5 and greater induced earthquakes in Oklahoma since 2011. To mitigate seismic hazards, both earthquake sources and their effects need to be characterized. Ground motion site response can cause additional damage to susceptible infrastructure and buildings. Recent studies indicate that Vs30, one of the primary site-response predictors used in current engineering practice, is not reliable. To investigate site response in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, ratios of surface-to-bedrock amplitude spectra, TFT, from S-wave recordings at the two deep vertical seismic arrays in the sediment-filled upper Mississippi Embayment (i.e., VSAP and CUSSO) were calculated. The mean TFT curves were compared with theoretical transfer functions; the results were comparable, indicating that TFT estimates of the empirical, linear SH-wave site responses at these sites. The suitability of surface S-wave horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios, H/V, for estimating the empirical site transfer function was also evaluated. The results indicate that mean S-wave H/V curves are similar to TFT at low frequencies (less than the fifth natural frequencies) at both CUSSO and VSAP. SH-wave fundamental frequency, f0, and fundamental-mode amplification, A0, were evaluated as alternatives to the Vs30 proxy to estimate primary linear site-response characteristics at VSAP, CUSSO, and nine other seismic stations in the CEUS. In addition, calculated f0 and A0 were compared with the first peaks of S-wave H/V spectral ratios. The f0 and A0 were found to approximate the 1-D linear, viscoelastic, fundamental-mode responses at most stations. Also, S-wave H/V from weak-motion earthquakes can be used to measure f0. However, S-wave H/V does not reliably estimate A0 in the project area. S-wave H/V observations reveal site response within the frequency band of engineering interest from deeper, unmodeled geological structures. Because damaging or felt earthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing and wastewater disposal have occurred in the CEUS, characterizing background seismicity prior to new large-scale subsurface fluid injection is important to identify cases of and the potential for induced seismicity. The Rogersville Shale in the Rome Trough of eastern Kentucky is being tested for unconventional oil and gas potential; production of this shale requires hydraulic fracturing, which has been linked to induced seismicity elsewhere in the CEUS. To characterize natural seismicity and to monitor induced seismicity during testing, a temporary seismic network was deployed in the Rome Trough near the locations of new, Rogersville Shale oil and gas test wells. Using the real-time recordings of this network and those of other regional seismic stations, three years of local seismicity were cataloged. Only three earthquakes occurred in the Rome Trough of eastern Kentucky, none of which was associated with the deep Rogersville Shale test wells that were stimulated during the time the network was in operation.

The generation of robust causal evidence is of paramount importance for informing policy and assessing the effect of different interventions in the educational setting. The objective of this thesis is to design and apply new methods for causal inference, particularly in observational studies, to answer pressing educational questions and provide evidence of the effect of specific events and policies. This thesis consists of three papers that use different identification strategies, such as a natural experiment, a regression discontinuity design, and a difference-in-differences approach, in combination with matching techniques, to identify the effect that specific educational interventions and a natural disaster had on students' and schools' outcomes in Chile. In the first paper, Vielma, Zubizarreta, and I present a new way of matching in observational studies that is able to (i) balance covariates directly with multiple-valued treatments, (ii) build self-weighted matched samples that are representative of a target population, and (iii) handle matching problems in large datasets in a fast and efficient way. The key insights of this new approach to matching are balancing the treatment groups relative to a target population and positing a linear-sized mixed integer formulation of the matching problem. We illustrate this method using both a simulation study and a case study. In the observational study, we estimate the effect that different intensities of the 2010 Chilean earthquake had on senior high school students' educational outcomes. We find that while increasing levels of exposure to the earthquake had a negative impact on school attendance, it had no effect on college admission test scores. In my second paper, I tackle the issue of generalization in a regression discontinuity design. Regression discontinuity designs are a commonly used approach for causal inference in observational studies. Under mild continuity assumptions, the method provides a robust estimate of the average treatment effect for observations directly at the threshold of assignment. However, it has limited external validity for populations away from the cutoff. This paper proposes a strategy to overcome this limitation by identifying a wider interval around the cutoff for estimation using a Generalization of a Regression Discontinuity Design (GRD). In this interval, predictive covariates are used to explain away the relationship between the assignment score and the outcome of interest for the pre-intervention period. Under the partially-testable assumption of conditional time-invariance in absence of the treatment, the generalization bandwidth can be applied to the post-intervention period, allowing for the estimation of average treatment effects for populations away from the cutoff. To illustrate this method, GRD is applied in the context of free higher education in Chile to estimate effects for vulnerable students. I find evidence that students at the margin of eligibility were positively affected by the policy, increasing both application and enrollment rates to university. In terms of a generalized effect, evidence is also consistent with an increasing effect as we get away from the cutoff. Finally, the third paper in this thesis addresses the question of unintended consequences in school segregation due to the introduction of a targeted voucher scheme. I use a difference-in-difference approach, in combination with matching on time-stable covariates, to estimate the effect that the 2008 Chilean voucher policy had on both average students' household income and academic performance at the school level. Results show that even though the policy had a positive effect on schools' standardized test scores, closing the gap between schools that subscribed to the policy compared to those that did not, there was also an increase in the differences between socioeconomic characteristics at the school level, such as average household income.

This Ph.D. dissertation focuses on a comprehensive study of seismic waveform similarity aiming at two themes: (1) reliable identification of repeating earthquakes (repeaters) and (2) investigation of the detailed source process of induced seismicity through the three-dimensional spatiotemporal evolution of mainly neighbouring earthquakes. Theme 1: Reliable identification of repeaters. Repeaters, occurring repeatedly on the same fault patch with nearly identical waveforms, are usually identified with the match-filtering (MF) method which essentially measures the degree of waveform similarity between an earthquake pair through the corresponding cross-correlation coefficient (CC). However, the performance of the MF method can be severely affected by the length of the cross‐correlation window, the frequency band of the applied digital filter, and the presence of a large‐amplitude wave train. To optimize the performance of MF, I first examine the effects of different operational parameters and determine generic rules for selecting the window length and the optimal frequency passband. To minimize the impact of a large‐amplitude wave train, I then develop a new method, named the match-filtering with multisegment cross-correlation (MFMC) method. By equally incorporating the contributions from various segments of the waveforms, the new method is much more effective in capturing the minor waveform discrepancy between an event pair due to location difference and hence is more reliable in detecting potential repeaters and discriminating non-repeaters with large inter-event separation. With both synthetic and borehole array waveform data, I further reveal that waveform similarity is controlled by not only the inter-event separation but also many other factors, including station azimuth, epicentral distance, velocity structure, etc. Therefore, in contrast to the traditional view, the results indicate that waveform similarity alone is insufficient to unambiguously identify true repeaters. For reliable repeater identification, we should rely on a physics-based approach considering both the overlapped source area and magnitude difference. Specifically, I define an event pair to be true repeaters if their inter-event separation is smaller than the rupture radius of the larger event and their magnitude difference is no more than 1. For the precise estimation of inter-event distance in cases of limited data, I develop the differential traveltime double-difference (DTDD) method which relies on the relative S-P differential traveltime. The findings of this study imply that previously identified repeaters and their interpretations/hypotheses potentially can be biased and hence may need a systematic reexamination. Theme 2: Investigation of the detailed source process of induced seismicity. Earthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing (HF), especially those with large magnitudes, are often observed to have occurred near/after well completion. The delayed triggering of induced seismicity with respect to injection commencement poses serious challenges for risk mitigation and hazard assessment. By performing waveform cross-correlation and hierarchical clustering analysis, I reveal a high-resolution three-dimensional source migration process with mainshock delayed triggering that is probably controlled by local hydrogeological conditions. The results suggest that poroelastic effects might contribute to induced seismicity but are likely insufficient to activate a non-critically stressed fault of sufficient size. My analysis shows that the rapid pore-pressure build-up from HF can be very localized and capable of producing large, felt earthquakes on non-critically stressed fault segments. I further infer that the number of critically stressed, large intraplate faults should be very limited, and that reactivation of such faults may require sufficient pore-pressure accumulation. The findings of this study may also explain why so few fluid injections are seismogenic. / Graduate