The behavior of soils during surface fault rupture is a serious concern in the planning and design of infrastructure that may be located within or near a fault zone. Challenges associated with developing mitigation measures for surface fault rupture include the uncertainty of fault rupture and the variability of fault behavior. Current analytical procedures define surface fault rupture according to the type of fault movement (strike slip, normal or reverse), the amount of displacement on the fault, and the mechanics of the material overlying the fault. The purpose of this thesis is to reconfirm analytical solutions and gain a better understanding of the mechanics of dip slip surface fault rupture. Specifically, this study focuses on analyzing the influence of soil density/stiffness and fault angle on rupture propagation and distributed surface displacements. While direct experimental results are not obtained, a constructed fault box and planned trials inform a framework for predicting the outcomes of these trials using existing literature. These prior studies provide a basis for forecasting the surface deformation patterns and propagation behavior that the planned trials would have revealed, offering valuable insights into fault rupture mechanics. The fault box, a 2-meter-long by 0.5-meter-wide fault box filled with 0.45 meters of Monterey #2/16 sand, was designed to examine the factors that influence the rupture propagation of alluvial soils overlying dip slip faults. The faulting apparatus consists of a scissor jack mechanism that replicates basal displacement by moving one half of the box relative to the stationary half at interchangeable fault angles. Planned trials involved using Monterey #2/16 sand prepared configurations of dense, loose, and layered loose-over-dense material to represent different geological conditions. In these planned experiments, ruptures would be driven until a clear shear band developed in the overlying sand and reached the surface. By synthesizing findings from prior studies, this research predicts that dense sands create concentrated shear bands with larger surface displacements and distinct surface ruptures, while loose sands result in more diffuse deformations over broader shear bands with less defined surface expressions. Additionally, shallow fault angles result in broader deformation zones, as the lower angle directs stress over a wider area. In layered soil configurations, density contrasts further influence deformation patterns, with transitions between layers influencing the extent and localization of surface displacements. These findings demonstrate that fault orientation and soil density control the nature of surface fault rupture.

Strong earthquakes are frequent catastrophic disasters occurring worldwide and often lead to structural collapse of buildings. Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) is the specialised process of locating, extricating and providing immediate medical treatment to victims trapped in collapsed structures. This research project aimed to identify the key preparedness efforts necessary by an earthquake affected country to ensure best coordinated use of international USAR assistance.

The Tibetan plateau is a vast, elevated region located in central Asia, which is underlain by the thickest crust known on Earth (up to 90 km). An outstanding question of importance to many fields within geology is how and why did the Tibetan plateau form? Models attribute the growth of the plateau to a consequence of the ongoing India-Asia continental collision, but differ in the details of how the crustal thickening was accommodated: was it by underplating of Indian lower crust or by homogeneous shortening? High-grade metamorphic rocks sampled from the region potentially hold the key to answering this question, as they contain a record of past tectonic events that can discriminate between the various proposed models. This record can be decoded by integrating field, thermobarometric and geochronological techniques, to elucidate a detailed thermotectonic understanding of a region. This methodology was applied to three case studies, each of which targeted rare tectonic windows into the mid-crust of the plateau. These regions comprise Danba in eastern Tibet, Basong Tso in south-eastern Tibet and the Western Nyainqentanglha in southern Tibet. Each case study documents previously unreported metamorphic events that have allowed original interpretations to be made regarding tectonic evolution: in Danba, all metamorphism is shown to be early Jurassic; in Basong Tso, two metamorphic belts are documented that reveal a late Triassic--early Jurassic orogenic event; and in the Western Nyainqengtanglha, Cretaceous--Neogene magmatism is shown to overprint late Triassic metamorphism. Integration of the results has enabled commentary on the large scale evolution of the Tibetan plateau from the Permian until the present day, and even hinted at its future. The results indicate that the closure of the Paleotethys played an important role in the construction of the Tibetan plateau, and suggest that homogeneous crustal thickening is not a viable model for the documented exposure levels.

Rapporterade naturkatastrofer har ökat markant under senare år, likt totala kostnader som följer. Utländska direktinvesteringar har ökat parallellt och är en viktig variabel för återhämtning efter en katastrof, särskilt för utvecklingsländer. Naturkatastrofer utgör en risk för utländska direktinvesteringar varför syftet med uppsatsen är att analysera naturkatastrofers inverkan på inflödet av utländska direktinvesteringar. För att besvara uppsatsens syfte analyseras om direktinvesteringar i utvecklade och utvecklingsländer påverkas olika av naturkatastrofer samt hur olika typer av naturkatastrofer påverkar direktinvesteringar. Få publikationer finns att tillgå inom ämnet, varför uppsatsen fyller en kunskapslucka. Uppsatsen använder ett balanserat paneldataset med 1632 observationer över tidsperioden 1980 - 2011. Fixed Effect Model tillämpas och resultaten visar att naturkatastrofer har en negativ inverkan på inflödet av utländska direktinvesteringar på både kort och lång sikt. Effekten är mer negativ på lång sikt vilket stärker bilden av att direktinvesteringar är långsiktiga. Stormar är den typ av naturkatastrof, framför översvämningar, som är tydligast bunden till direktinvesteringar. Jordbävningar visar ingen signifikans. Naturkatastrofer påverkar utländska direktinvesteringar i utvecklade länder marginellt mer än i utvecklingsländer. Den ekonomiska tillväxten är enbart signifikant för utvecklingsländer som uppvisar en positiv signifikant för alla studerade tidshorisonter. För utvecklade och utvecklingsländer har stormar och översvämningar ett negativ samband med direktinvesteringar. Jordbävningar uppvisar en positiv signifikans på 1 års sikt för utvecklade länder, men ingen signifikans för utvecklingsländer.Nyckelord: Utländska / The reporting of natural disasters has increased significantly during the last century. Likewise has the financial costs risen along with the natural disasters. Foreign direct investments (FDI) has increased during the same time period and is a key variable for economic recovery after a natural disaster, especially for developing countries. Natural disasters imposes risk for FDI, hence the purpose of this study is to analyze the impact natural disasters has on FDI. This study investigate if there are differences in how developed and developing countries cope with natural disasters and how different types of natural disasters affects FDI in different ways. The study uses a 1632 observation panel data set covering the time period 1980 to 2011. The regression model applied is Fixed Effect Model. The results show that natural disasters significantly impact FDI negatively, both in the short and long-run. The marginal effect in the long-run are shown to be more negative than in the short-run, establishing that FDI are long term investments. The type of natural disaster, closest connected to FDI are storms. The impact from natural disaster on developed countries is marginally more notable than the impact on developing countries. Economic Growth, as a regressor, is only shown to be significant for developing countries. For developed and developing countries storms and floods are negatively connected to FDI. In developed countries earthquakes have a positive connection to FDI in a one year period.

在這篇文章中，我們由單擺運動的觀念得出深層地震持續時間的估計，以及討論了關於地震方程的良至性與週期性，並且得出關於持續時間的表現公式。最後，利用台北中央氣象局關於地震記錄的數據，來驗證我們以上的結果。 / In this paper, we obtain the duration of deep earthquakes coming from the concept of pendulum motion. We consider the well-posedness and periodicity of the solutions for the seismic equation and get representation formula of duration for the equation. We revise the validity of our work by using numerical data gained from Center Weather Bureau in Taipei, Taiwan.

Ações sísmicas ocorrem com pouca freqüência e intensidade no Brasil, porém ocorrem em países da América Latina situados na costa do Pacífico e em Portugal, despertando o interesse da engenharia brasileira nesse assunto. Neste trabalho, apresenta-se um modelo numérico para análise de estruturas metálicas aporticadas planas com comportamento elasto-plástico sob excitação aleatória induzida por sismos. Para simular as vibrações aleatórias, utiliza-se uma simulação tipo Monte Carlo fundamentada no ?Vento Sintético?, proposta pelo Prof. Mário Franco. Nessa simulação, combinações de séries de carregamentos harmônicos são geradas com suas amplitudes extraídas de uma Função de Densidade Espectral de Potência (PSDF) das acelerações do solo e com ângulos de fase obtidos por um algoritmo pseudo-aleatório. A PSDF utilizada é um modelo reduzido do modelo Kanai-Tajimi que determina combinações de séries adimensionais, onde seus resultados para o trecho elástico são calibrados com o espectro de resposta elástica sugerido em norma internacional. A integração numérica passo-a-passo no domínio do tempo é feita para cada função de carregamento adotando-se o método de Newmark. O efeito elastoplástico é modelado pelo conceito de rótulas plásticas, assim, a cada passo é verificada a formação da rótula. Se certa seção atingir o momento fletor de plastificação, o valor do momento permanece constante e introduz-se uma rótula nessa seção com rigidez a flexão nula, permitindo rotações finitas livres. Em caso de reversão da direção do momento fletor, a rigidez elástica é integralmente recuperada com a eliminação da rótula do modelo. Ao final desse processo, obtém-se uma grande quantidade de dados de resposta. Faz-se um tratamento estatístico desses resultados de modo a concluir, do ponto de vista da engenharia, a probabilidade de ocorrência dos eventos. Para validar a metodologia proposta, analisou-se um edifício com cinco pavimentos. Os resultados satisfatórios foram obtidos quando comparados com exemplos da literatura, além de apresentarem-se estável com relação a integração no tempo. / Seismic actions occur with low intensity and often in Brazil, however they occur in Latin-American countries on the Pacific Coast and in Portugal, arousing interest in this subject of the Brazilian engineering. In this work, a numerical model is presented for the analysis on the elastic-plastic behavior of steel planar framed structures under random seismic excitation. For random vibrations, a Monte Carlo type simulation is used. This simulation is based on the ?Synthetic Wind?, proposed by Prof. Mario Franco. In this simulation, combinations of series of harmonic loads are generated with their amplitude given by certain provided Power Spectrum Density Functions (PSDF) of ground acceleration and pseudorandomly set phase angles. The used PSDF is reduced model of the Kanai-Tajimi model that determine combinations of non-dimensional series whose results by the behavior elastic are adjusted by international codes Elastic Response Spectra. The step-by-step time integration is performed for each load function using the Newmark method. In order to model, the elastoplastic effect is used the plastic hinge concept. Therefore, at each step the hinge formation is verified. If a certain section reaches its full plastic bending moment, this value of moment is maintained and a hinge in that section is introduced in the model with null stiffness, allowing for free finite rotations. If the rotation in a certain hinged section is reversed, elastic behavior is restored by elimination of the hinge from the model. At the end of this process, a large quantity of response data is obtained. A statistic treatment of these results is performed, in the way that is possible conclude, from the engineering point of view, the probability of occurrence of these events. A statistic treatment based sound engineering conclusions is done for the happened probable events. In order to validate the proposed methodology, a five stories building is analyzed. Satisfactory agreement is obtained when compared to results from the literature, and the results are very stable with respect to the time integration.

In this thesis, the basic tools of spatial statistics and time series analysis are applied to the case study of the earthquakes in a certain geographical region and time frame. Then some of the existing methods for joint analysis of time and space are described and applied. Finally, additional research questions about the spatial-temporal distribution of the earthquakes are posed and explored using statistical plots and models. The focus in the last section is in the relationship between number of events per year and maximum magnitude and its effect on how clustered the spatial distribution is and the relationship between distances in time and space in between consecutive events as well as the distribution of the distances.

Les glissements de terrain constituent un risque naturel majeur à l’origine de dégâts matériels et humains considérables. Les séismes sont l’une des principales causes de leur déclenchement dans les orogènes actifs. Dans la zone épicentrale, le passage des ondes sismiques perturbe le champs de contraintes local ce qui peut provoquer le dépassement du seuil de stabilité des versants. La probabilité de déclenchement d’un glissement de terrain sismo-induit sur une pente donnée est donc fonction de facteurs liés au mouvement du sol et aux caractéristiques géologiques et topographiques de celle-ci. Très peu de données sismiques sont disponibles sur les versants et les modèles d’interpolation sont peu précis. Or le mouvement sismique peut s’avérer très variable à l’échelle d’un bassin du fait de la présence d’effets de site. L’étude de la réponse sismique d’un relief taïwanais nous permet de documenter ces effets et de prendre connaissance de la complexité du mouvement enregistré sur ce relief à la suite du passage de l’onde. Un réseau de six stations larges-bandes a été déployé, au travers de ce relief large d’environ 3km. Entre mars 2015 et juin 2016, ce réseau a permis d’enregistrer la réponse des sites à plus de 2200 séismes régionaux (magnitude Ml>3, distance hypocentrale<200km). Bien que distants de quelques centaines de mètres, les sites présentent tous une réponse qui leur est caractéristique résultant d’une combinaison complexe entre la topographie et la géologie du site. A fréquences modérées, correspondant à des longueurs d’ondes du mouvement pouvant contribuer au déclenchement de glissements de terrain, l’amplification du mouvement sismique est principalement due à la géologie locale et non à la topographie, comme montré par les indicateurs classiques (SSR, PGA, PGV et Arias) extraits des réponses des stations aux séismes. La topographie semble néanmoins jouer un rôle dans la durée du mouvement sismique fort aux stations situées sur les crêtes et en bordure de bassin sédimentaire, par effet de résonance et génération d’ondes de surface. La contribution prédominante de la géologie dans le déclenchement des glissements de terrain sismo-induits est également montrée par l’analyse de leur position sur les versants pour les glissements associés aux séismes de Northridge (Mw 6.7, 1994, Etats-Unis), de Chi-Chi (Mw 7.6, 1999, Taiwan), et de Wenchuan (Mw 7.9, 2008, Chine). En effet, bien que les glissements sismo-induits se localisent statistiquement plus haut sur les versants que les glissements d’origine climatique, on note que cette tendance est fortement modulée par la géologie des bassins. En fonction des « attracteurs », tels que des failles ou forts contrastes lithologiques, présents dans les bassins, les glissements tendent à se déclencher plus ou moins haut sur les versants, là où le potentiel de rupture est plus fort. Les propriétés mécaniques des pentes sont peu contraintes dans les zones montagneuses. Souvent leurs paramètres géotechniques sont estimés à partir des cartes géologiques régionales, or ils peuvent varier fortement pour une même lithologie d’un bassin à un autre. En considérant un modèle frictionnel simple de stabilité des pentes, on propose d’inverser des paramètres de type Coulomb à partir de la distribution des pentes des glissements de terrain sismo-induits à l’échelle des bassins dans les zones épicentrales des séismes de Northridge, Chi-Chi et Wenchuan. La variation spatiale de ces paramètres semble cohérente avec celle de la lithologie et la profondeur des sols. / Landslides are a major natural hazard that cause significant damages and casualties to people. Earthquakes are one of their main triggers in active mountain belts. In epicentral area, the passage of seismic-waves that disrupt the stress-field, leads the slope stability threshold to be exceeded. Co-seismic slope failure probability thus depends on complex interactions between the ground-motion and the slope geology and geometry. A few seismic data are available on mountain slopes and the resolution of ground-motion models is generally low. Yet strong variation of ground-motion from one ridge to another can be felt due to site effects. We document site effects across topography and show the complexity of slope responses to earthquakes using a seismic network set across a Taiwanese ridge. Six broadband seismometers were set along the profile of this 3km wide ridge. From March 2015 to June 2016, more than 2200 earthquakes (magnitude Ml>3 and hypocentral distance<200km) were recorded. Although the sites are within a distance of hundreds of meters they all show different characteristic responses that are related to a complex combination of the geology and topography of the sites. At medium frequency corresponding to groundmotion wavelength that could affect slope stability, the ground-motion amplification is mostly related to the local geology and the topographic effect seems relatively negligible as attested by current indicators measured at the stations (PGA, PGV, Arias, SSR). However the duration of strong ground-motion at the ridge crests and slope toe seems to be related to possible resonance effects and surface wave generation due to the geometry of the topography. The strong contribution of the geology to co-seismic landslide trigger is demonstrated by the analysis of their position along hillslopes for the co-seismic landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake (Mw 6.7, 1994, USA), the Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw 7.6, 1999, Taiwan), and the Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9, 2008, China). Indeed, although co-seismic landslides are statistically located higher on hillslopes than the rainfall-induced landslides, we show that this tendency is strongly modulated by the geology. According to the “potential landslides attractiveness” of geological structures, such as faults or lithological contrasts, present in the watershed, the slope failure would occur more or less upslope, where the failure probability is the highest.Slope mechanical properties are not well constrained in mountain area. Their geotechnical parameters are usually estimated using information provided by geological maps, but even for the same lithology they can strongly differ for one basin to another. Considering one simple friction model for seismic slope stability, we propose to invert Coulomb related parameters using the slope distributions of the landslides triggered by the Northridge, Chi-Chi and Wenchuan earthquakes. The spatial variation of these parameters seems to be in agreement with the lithology and soil depth at the first order.

Lihir Gold Mine in Papua New Guinea is one of the largest gold mines in the world situated in a seismically sensitive zone. The gold deposit is located in an extinct volcano in close proximity to the sea shore and presents a series of geohazards. Some geohazards are uncommon and include: geothermal outbursts, cavities, water inrush and earthquake/ tsunami. After a major multi-batter (5 benches high) slope failure that occurred on the 1st of October 2009, a team of engineers, lead by the author investigated the incident and made series of recommendations. Arising out of these recommendations, a comprehensive Geohazard Management Plan was formulated by revisiting, revising and putting together all the individual geohazard management plans as a single document. This thesis describes the outcomes of the investigation and presents an overview and systematic approach in formulation of the Geohazard Management Plan, apart from a summary of the gaps that were identified in the existing system, major contributions that were made as well as the expected improvements and constraints in managing these geohazards. / Mining Engineering

Earthquake-induced slope instability is one of the major sources of earthquake hazards in near fault regions. Simplified tools, such as Newmark&rsquo / s Sliding Block (NSB) Analysis are widely used to represent the stability of a slope under earthquake shaking. The outcome of this analogy is the slope displacement where larger displacement values indicate higher seismic slope instability risk. Recent studies in the literature propose empirical models between the slope displacement and single or multiple ground motion intensity measures such as peak ground acceleration or Arias intensity. These correlations are based on the analysis of large datasets from global ground motion recording database (PEER NGA-W1 Database). Ground motions from earthquakes occurred in Turkey are poorly represented in NGA-W1 database since corrected and processed data from Turkey was not available until recently. The objective of this study is to evaluate the compatibility of available NSB displacement prediction models for the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) applications in Turkey using a comprehensive dataset of ground motions recorded during earthquakes occurred in Turkey. Then the application of selected NSB displacement prediction model in a vector-valued PSHA framework is demonstrated with the explanations of seismic source characterization, ground motion prediction models and ground motion intensity measure correlation coefficients. The results of the study is presented in terms of hazard curves and a comparison is made with a case history in Asarsuyu Region where seismically induced landslides (Bakacak Landslides) had taken place during 1999 D&uuml / zce Earthquake.