Orientador: Rodolfo Hoffmann / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-06T22:24:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Orair_RodrigoOctavio_M.pdf: 941833 bytes, checksum: c6bbf6257f7cffb94610b8f358524b6c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / Resumo: Este trabalho apresenta as fórmulas e discute os procedimentos para estimação das elasticidades-crescimento e das elasticidades-desigualdade das medidas de Foster, Greer e Thorbecke (FGT), que medem a magnitude dos efeitos das mudanças na renda média e na desigualdade sobre a pobreza. Utilizando uma análise de regressão, concluímos que os modelos com as elasticidades em relação à medida de desigualdade L de Theil pelo Método Log-normal foram capazes de explicar razoavelmente bem as mudanças observadas nas medidas de pobreza nas Unidades da Federação no Brasil (UF) de 1992 a 2004, verificando-se que esse modelo mostra desempenho significativamente melhor do que os demais. Argumentamos que a aplicação empírica das estimativas das elasticidades-desigualdade da classe de medidas de FGT pelo Método Log-normal, cuja expressão geral para foi deduzida neste trabalho, é mais adequada do que a utilização das elasticidades derivadas por Kakwani (1990) e amplamente difundidas na literatura. Recorrendo às elasticidades da medida de FGT com , demonstramos que aumentos no rendimento médio e reduções na medida de desigualdade sempre determinam reduções na medida de pobreza e que a extensão pela qual cada um destes fatores altera a medida de pobreza depende das propriedades da distribuição de renda inicial, a saber, o nível prévio da renda média e da desigualdade específicos de cada região. Observamos a natureza crescente do valor absoluto da elasticidade-crescimento e da elasticidade-desigualdade da medida de pobreza em relação ao nível inicial do rendimento médio e sua natureza decrescente em relação ao nível inicial da desigualdade. Analisando os resultados das elasticidades nas UF em 2004, verificamos que a medida de pobreza é elástica em relação à média e ao L de Theil em todas UF, mas que a magnitude dos efeitos relativos das mudanças na média e na desigualdade sobre a pobreza serão diferenciados entre as regiões do país, sendo menores nos estados da região Nordeste e Tocantins. As elasticidades também foram utilizadas para um exercício de simulação de distintos comportamentos das medidas de pobreza no Brasil para o decênio 2004/2014, cujos resultados sugerem a possibilidade de se obter avanços expressivos no combate à pobreza, num período de tempo relativamente curto, por meio de uma composição regional de crescimento econômico e de redução da desigualdade com maior ênfase nas regiões mais carentes do país, ainda que sob taxas modestas de crescimento econômico, conduzindo a resultados mais efetivos do que trajetórias alternativas que promovam crescimento acelerado sem redução das desigualdades dentro e entre as regiões do país. Concluímos que a questão essencial do combate à pobreza no Brasil não é simplesmente a retomada do crescimento econômico a taxas aceleradas, mas que seus resultados serão mais efetivos quando ocorrer um estilo de crescimento capaz de reduzir as acentuadas disparidades sociais e regionais do país. Com base nos resultados obtidos, argumentamos que uma estratégia eficiente de combate à pobreza deve compatibilizar políticas de crescimento e políticas redistributivas que, de forma associada, priorizem o crescimento e a redução da desigualdade nas regiões de baixo rendimento médio e de mais alta desigualdade na distribuição de renda, especialmente nos estados do Nordeste e Tocantins. Remete-se, assim, à ação pública no sentido de promover políticas que aumentem a efetividade do crescimento econômico sobre a redução da pobreza / Abstract: The paper shows the formulas and discuss the proceedings for estimating the growth and inequality elasticities of Foster, Greer and Thorbecke¿s measures (FGT), that measures the magnitude of the effects of changes in mean income and inequality on poverty. The models that used the elasticities with respect to the Theil¿s L index computed by the Log-normal Method in a regression analysis were able to explain reasonably well the observed changes in the poverty measures for the Brazilian Federation Units from 1992 to 2004, verifying that the performance of this model is significantly better than the others. It is shown that the empirical application of the inequality elasticities for the class of FGT measures under the Lognormal Method, whose general expression for is derived in this paper, is more adequate than the utilization of the inequality elasticities derived by Kakwani (1990) and commonly used in the literature. Using the eslasticities for the FGT measure with , it is shown that growth in mean income and reduction in inequality always imply a reduction in poverty and that the extension that each one of these factors alters the poverty measure depends on the properties of the initial income distribution. It is observed that the absolute values of the growth and inequality elasticities increase with the initial level of mean income and decrease with the initial level of inequality. Analyzing the values of the elasticities for the Brazilian Federation Units in 2004, it is shown that the poverty measure is elastic with respect to the mean income and to the Theil¿s L index in each Federation Unit, but the values of the elasticities differ substantially among Federation Units, being lower in the states of the Northeast Region and Tocantins. The elasticities we also used in a simulation exercise of poverty trajectories in Brazil during the decennium 2004/2114, that suggests the possibility of large reductions in poverty, in a short period of time, with a regional composition of economic growth and inequality reduction that emphasizes the poorest regions in the country, even accompanied by modest economic growth, that gives better results than alternative trajectories with high economic growth without reduction in inequalities. The conclusion is that the main question of poverty reduction in Brazil it is not simply the need for fast economic growth but that the results will be more effective with a type of economic growth that reduces the social and regional disparities in the country. Based on the results, policies that might be implemented to reduce poverty in Brazil are discussed, pointing out the importance of combining growth and redistributive policies, taking into account the regional differences / Mestrado / Teoria Economica / Ciencias Economicas

This dissertation consists in an analysis about the interconnection between the relative price of capital and economic growth. The work is divided in two essays. In the first one, an analysis of the dynamic impact of trade restrictions is performed in order to understand the impact over economic growth and relative price of capital. This analysis is particularly relevant to understand the Brazilian case, which presented a strong rise in the relative price of capital, exactly at the time the country was adopting import substitution policies and restrictions to the trade of capital goods. The second essay emphasizes differences between countries of income per capita and relative price of capital. Consistent with recent empirical work, this analysis emphasizes how differences in productivity could be generated and how this could impact the dispersion of income per capita and the relative price of capital. / Esta dissertação consiste em uma análise sobre as interligações entre o preço relativo do capital e crescimento econômico. O trabalho está divido em dois ensaios. No primeiro, é realizado uma análise do impacto dinâmico de restrições ao comércio internacional sobre crescimento econômico e o preço relativo do capital. Essa análise é particularmente relevante para entender o caso brasileiro, que observou uma forte elevação do preço relativo do capital justamente em um período de substituição de importações e restrições ao comércio de bens de capital. O segundo ensaio procura olhar para as diferenças de renda per capita e do preço relativo do capital entre os países. Em consonância com trabalhos empíricos recentes, a análise enfatiza como diferenças em produtividade podem ser geradas e como isso pode impactar a dispersão de renda per capital e do preço relativo do capital.

This thesis is based on four essays dealing with tourism development and its determinants. Chapter Two explores the different definitions of ‘tourism’ and ‘tourist’, as well as the factors that influence tourism arrivals. We discuss traditional and more recent theories that underlie the study of the tourism industry. The third chapter examines the effect of tourism upon economic growth, investigating the effects of tourism specialization within tourism-exporting countries and non-tourism-exporting countries annually over the period 1995–2007, applying panel-data methods in cross-sectional growth regressions. This study finds that tourism does not affect economic growth in either underdeveloped or developed countries. Moreover, tourism might cause Dutch Disease in tourism-exporting countries owing to their over-reliance on the exporting of non-traded goods. Chapter Four seeks to identify how institutional quality and aspects of infrastructure (internet access measured by size of country or per 100 people) influence tourist arrivals in a whole sample of 131 countries and in sub-samples comprising developed and developing countries (as defined by IMF criteria) using static and dynamic panel data. The findings indicate that internet access enhances the tourism industry, and most interestingly, that good governance is one of the most influential factors for improving and developing tourism. Chapter Five diagnoses the determinants of tourism flows using panel-data sets including 134 originating countries and 31 destination countries (selected depending on data availability) focusing on ICRG data for the period 2005–2009. The methodology makes use of basic and augmented gravity equations, together with the Hausman-Taylor and Poisson estimation techniques, whilst comparing the performance of the three gravity-equation methods. The results suggest that lower levels of political risk contribute to an increase in tourism flows. Furthermore, common language (positively), common currency (negatively) and political factors (particularly institutional quality) are the most prominent determinants in promoting (or deterring) tourism. Chapter Six gives concluding remarks.

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Abstract This thesis investigates whether stock returns can help forecast macroeconomic activity. Future earnings and dividends and current stock prices should contain information about the future state of firms and the consumption possibilities of consumers. These activities are linked to aggregate economic development and, hence, the stock markets should improve economic forecasting. We review the theoretical points that justify the importance of stock markets in economic forecasting. Recent literature on the stochastic discount factor in asset pricing and the real business cycle models has approached this connection. We try to show that the direction between financial markets and macroeconomy could be from stock markets to real economy. We empirically test the forecasting ability of stock markets with respect to macroeconomy. The unexpected part of stock return can be revealed with economic tracking portfolios (ETP), which are constructed so that the unexpected portion of the portfolio return has the maximum correlation with revisions to expectations of the target variable. ETP's track how investors revise their expectations about relevant macroeconomic variables. The results show that specific stock portfolios track future changes in macroeconomic variables well. In the previous literature, stock returns have been connected to the business cycle. This connection is analysed by explaining stock returns with total factor productivity (TFP) as a factor. TFP is measured by corporate innovation variable, i.e. the change in a firm's gross profit margin unexplained by changes in firm's capital and labour. The TFP variable performs quite nicely in explaining stock returns and it can be related to stock market momentum. Next, the aim is to investigate the forecasting power of stock returns together with the TFP factor. Even though in our results the TFP contains no information relevant for economic forecasting, the stock returns continue to perform well.

As a depletable resource oil is a useful source of economic growth, but may not be relied upon for long-term sustainable development. Diversification from oil is needed to achieve this. This research applies three models to examine the most important determinants of oil and non-oil sector economic growth in two of the largest economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), namely Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The empirical analysis applies the Johansen approach and ECM to access the relationship between all variables, both in the long and short-term. Given the governments’ determination to reduce dependence on oil income, this study focuses on the role of non-oil sectors. Explanatory variables in the models included exports, government spending, investment (private and public), tourism (religious and international), labour and capital, while GDP is used as the dependent variable. The results reflect the fact that the main determinants of economic growth in Saudi Arabia are related to the oil sector. The analysis of the long-term relationship between selected variables in the main model find that total exports have the greatest influence on economic growth, while tourism is the least influential variable. Moreover, empirical results show that all variables are important in the growth of the Saudi economy except non-oil exports. The role of religious tourism is not found to be significant in the process of economic growth when the economy as a whole is taken into consideration. Nonetheless, when isolating the non-oil sectors, the effect of religious tourism has a greater influence on economic growth. Concrete evidence also exists as to the importance of the role of an additional variable – government spending – in enhancing economic growth. In the UAE, the impact of both oil and non-oil sectors is highly prominent. This is particularly evident when the economy is divided into two segments (oil and non-oil). With the exception of government spending and public investment in the non-oil sector, the estimated results show that overall both sectors (oil and non-oil) are in fact responsible for this growth. With regard to tourism, the study’s findings confirm its importance in both models. It is found that non-oil exports in the non-oil sectors have the greatest positive impact on economic growth, followed by tourism and private investment respectively. Overall, this study's outcomes suggest that the omission or exclusion of important variables and factors in non-oil sectors such as tourism and the exclusive concentration of empirical studies on the role of oil exports and government spending as the engines of growth, might be both biased and misleading. This thesis has both theoretical and practical implications. Through isolating the non-oil sector from the oil sector, the study is able to detect and highlight the potential role of tourism as a future crucial factor in determining economic growth in oil rich countries, especially in the GCC.

Magister Economicae - MEcon / Throughout its development, trade has been regarded as a vital component of economic growth and development. Both theoretical and empirical studies consider international trade to be a major determinant of the growth of any economy. International trade in services has been rising ever since trade in services was incorporated into international trade agreements after the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations in 1994. This, coupled with the ever-improving state of technological innovation, has made services trade an important aspect of the development agenda of most countries. However, just like any other endeavour, offshoring of services has both opportunities as well as threats. The study examines two research questions relating to the growth-enhancing impact of South Africa’s exports and imports of services. Firstly, the study examines the contribution of services exports to economic growth in South Africa. Secondly, the study determines the impact that imported services has had on South Africa’s economic growth. In spite of the global rise of trade in services, South Africa’s export of services accounts for only 14 percent of total exports, while the import of services constitutes 20 percent of total imports. Using quarterly time series data for the period 1980 to 2012, the study adopts the ordinary least squares method to estimate the contribution of both exports and imports to output expansion within an aggregation production function setup. The empirical results show that the export of services influences influence South Africa’s economic growth significantly in both the long-run and the short-run. While the relationship is positive in the long-run, it is negative in the short-run. The results also indicate that the import of services significantly and positively affects real output growth in both the long-run and the short-run.

We develop a model of endogenous growth based on the division of labour in order to discuss policy issues. The engine of growth is the worker's incentive to achieve higher income, thereby inducing an increase in the degree of specialisation. The genuine contribution of this paper is that both supply side and demand side policies may stimulate long-run economic growth, and do not only induce level shifts. On the supply side, an increase in productivity of innovative workers, alongside with investment in infrastructure, human capital, and improvements in the market setting may stimulate growth. On the demand side, we find that transfers to innovative workers, a reduction in consumption taxes, an increase of labour income taxation of the specialised workforce, and a redistribution towards specialised workers will foster economic growth. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

La relation entre le développement financier et la croissance économique a suscité une attention particulière dans la littérature économique durant ces dernières décennies. Notre recherche tente d’apprécier les effets du processus de libéralisation du système financier au Maroc sur la croissance économique. Les résultats obtenus montrent la nécessité de mettre en place des mécanismes permettant d’optimiser les répercussions positives de la libéralisation financière sur l’économie réelle. Ainsi définie, la libéralisation financière est perçue dans certains pays développés au cours de la décennie 70, tantôt comme une stratégie idéologiquement élaborée par les autorités concernées, tantôt comme une contrainte imposée par le marché. Son évolution ne s’est étendue à la quasi-totalité des pays en développement que durant la décennie 80, avec l’institution des Programmes d’Ajustement Structurel et le déclenchement du processus de mondialisation. Conscient du rôle majeur que peut jouer le secteur financier dans la dynamisation de l’activité économique nationale, les autorités marocaines ont lancé depuis le début des années 90 un processus continu et ininterrompu de réformes à travers notamment la levée des contraintes qui pesaient sur le système bancaire marocain, sur le développement du marché des capitaux et sur la libéralisation du mode de financement du Trésor. La finalité étant de développer la physionomie du secteur financier, pour en faire un instrument efficient de mobilisation de l’épargne, et de sa canalisation vers le financement de l’investissement d’une croissance durable, génératrice de richesse et réductrice de de chômage et de pauvreté. / The relationship between financial development and economic growth has attracted particular attention in the economic literature in recent decades. Our research tries to assess the effects of liberalization of the financial system in Morocco on economic growth. The results show the need to put in place mechanisms to optimize and strengthen the positive impact of financial liberalization on the real economy. Thus defined, financial liberalization is seen in some developed countries during the 70s, sometimes ideologically as a strategy developed by the authorities concerned, sometimes as a constraint imposed by the market. Its evolution has intensified and spread to almost all developing countries during the 80s, with the institution of Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAP) and the outbreak of the globalization process. Recognizing the important role that the financial sector can play in boosting national economic activity, the Moroccan authorities have launched, since the early 90s, a continuous and uninterrupted process of reform, in particular through the lifting of constraints on the Moroccan bank system, on the development of capital market liberalization and the way to finance the Treasury. The aim is to develop and improve the face of the financial sector to make it an efficient instrument of mobilization and development of savings and its channeling towards the financing of investment for strong, sustainable growth, generating wealth and reducing unemployment and poverty.

Growth induced export has become a major concern for policy makers to transform and upgrade the export composition to achieve economic growth objectives; in this respect, export diversification become at the heart of growth induced export narrative. Nevertheless, this study attempts to find relationship between export diversification and economic growth. To investigate this relationship, a cross-section method is used with averaged data from the period 1991 to 2009 of 41 sub Saharan Africa countries; moreover, diagnostic tests were conducted to ensure the robustness of the model. The empirical result of this study shows positive correlation between export diversification and economic growth which can be concluded that export diversification promotes economic growth.