Na atualidade existe uma necessidade de repensar políticas voltadas para o desenvolvimento devido a que o milagre resgitrado por os baby boomers no século passado começa a desaparecer. Por isto, o objetivo deste trabalho é medir o impacto econômico e demográfico dos elderly boomers sobre o crescimento económico, adicionando duas variáveis na equação geral de Solow- Swan. Além disso, medir o impacto da participação das mulheres na força de trabalho como uma das fontes possível para mitigar este declínio (separado por edade e sexo). Os principais ressultados foram: que evidenciá-se una redução do 34% no crecimento explicado pelo factor puramente demográfico (força laboral) em relação com o abservado nos anos 80-90. Evidenciáse também para o grupo de mulheres maiores de 25+ que tem um coeficiente negativo -0,24 (cresciemnto taxa de emprego) sobre o crescimento econômico (PIB per-capita), isto deve-se a que embora as mulheres tenham um maior crescimento em sua força laboral do que os homens, as mulheres empregadas não cresce na mesma proporção, isto em grande parte pela fraqueça institucional e ausência apertura econômica ainda na maioria dos países. / At present there is a necessity to rethink development policies because the miracle registered by the baby boomers in the last century begins to disappear. For this reason, the objective of this work is to measure economic and demographic impact of elderly boomers on economic growth by adding two variables in the general Solow-Swan equation. Also, measuring the impact of women participation in the workforce as one of the possible ways to mitigate this decline (disaggregate by sex and age). The main results were: a 34% reduction in growth explained by the purely demographic factor (labor force) in relation to the observed in the years 80-90. To group of women over 25+ who have a negative coefficient -0.24 (growth rate of employment) on economic growth (GDP per-capita), this is due to the fact that although women have a higher labor force growth than men, the number of women employments do not increase in the same proportion, this is largely due to institutional weakness and lack of economic openness in most countries.

The purpose of this paper is to clarify the correlation between economic development and inclusive political institutions. Research in the field of development economics highlights the importance of durable institutions for sustained economic growth. Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson propose that we should consider inclusive political institutions are key drivers of economic development, but political inclusion is challenging to measure quantitatively. We investigate novel ways ways to operationalize political inclusion and economic development by using voter turnout as the independent variable while median income acts as the dependent variable to better reflects the living standards of the broad population. Our thesis is that increased voter participation as a percentage of voting age population should correlate to a higher median income. Our bivariate regression shows a clear relationship but low explanatory power since linear regression doesn’t explain significant variations in the data. Multivariate linear regression results show a weaker correlation than expected but explains our data better by highlighting a clear tendency for high income democracies to enjoy high voter turnout whereas low income countries have varied outcomes. A high degree of data variability raises doubts about the validity of comparing voting participation between different political systems.

One cannot study poverty in Tanzania without understanding the agricultural sector, which employs more than two-thirds of the population and accounts for nearly a quarter of national GDP. This thesis examines three themes that focus on the difficulties that rural Tanzanians face in achieving a reasonable livelihood: the adverse legacy of a failed historical policy, a difficult climate, and market failures. The first empirical chapter examines the legacy of the villagization program that attempted to transform the predominantly agricultural and rural Tanzania. Between 1971 and 1973, the majority of rural residents were moved to villages planned by the government. This essay examines if the programs e↵ects are persistent and have had a long-run legacy. It analyzes the impact of exposure to the program on various outcome measures from recent household surveys. The primary finding of this study is that households living in districts heavily exposed to the program have worse measures of various current outcomes. The second empirical chapter examines the role of reliability of rainfall, which is important in Tanzania as agriculture is predominantly rain-fed and a small fraction of plots are irrigated. This chapter investigates if households cope with this major risk to income by re-allocating their labor supply between agriculture, wage labor, and self-employment activities. This chapter combines data on labor allocation of households within and outside of agriculture from the National Panel Survey with high-resolution satellite-based rainfall data not previously used in this literature. The primary finding of this study is that households allocate more family labor to agriculture in years of good rainfall and more labor to self-employment activities in years of poor rainfall. Market failures are often cited as a rationale for policy recommendations and government interventions. The third chapter implements four tests of market failures suggested in the literature, all of which rely on the agricultural household model but di↵er in how market failures are manifested. The common finding of these tests is that market failures exist in agricultural factor markets in Tanzania, although significant heterogeneity exists. Markets are more likely to fail in rural areas, remote locations, and are more likely to affect female-headed households. Households are also more likely to face market failure when they try to supply labor to the market than when they try to hire labor from the market.

This study examines the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth in developing countries. Based on deduction from the relevant theoretical and empirical literature, the study tests the following hypotheses regarding the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth. First, fiscal deficits have significant positive or negative impact on economic growth in developing countries. Second, the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth depends on the size of deficits as a percentage of GDP - that is, there is a non-linear relationship between fiscal deficits and economic growth. Third, the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth depends on the ways in which deficits are financed. Fourth, the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth depends on what deficit financing is used for. The study also examines whether there are any significant regional differences in terms of the relationship between fiscal deficits and economic growth in developing countries. The study uses panel data for thirty-one developing countries covering the period 1972- 2001, which is analysed based on the econometric estimation of a dynamic growth model using the Arellano and Bond (1991) generalised method of moments (GMM) technique. Overall, the results suggest the following. First, fiscal deficits per se have no any significant positive or negative impact on economic growth. Second, by contrast, when the deficit is substituted by domestic and foreign financing, we find that both domestic and foreign financing of fiscal deficits exerts a negative and statistically significant impact on economic growth with a lag. Third, we find that both categories of economic classification of government expenditure, namely, capital and current expenditure, have no significant impact on economic growth. When government expenditure is disaggregated on the basis of a functional classification, the results suggest that spending on education, defence and economic services have positive but insignificant impact on growth, while spending on health and general public services have positive and significant impact. Fourth, in terms of regional differences with regard to the estimated relationships, the study finds that, while there are some regional differences between the four different regions represented in our sample of thirty-one developing countries - namely, Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa - these differences are not statistically significant. On the basis of these findings, the study concludes that fiscal deficits per se are not necessarily good or bad for economic growth in developing countries; how the deficits are financed and what they are used for matters. In addition, the study concludes that there are no statistically significant regional differences in terms of the relationship between fiscal deficits and economic growth in developing countries.

This thesis investigates workplace and organisational learning over the period 2000-2010 in a Belgian development agency (VVOB), involved in the implementation of educational development projects. It explores some of the structural causes of the perceived learning deficit at the project and the agency-wide level, and links it with similar findings in other development agencies. For the project level, two case studies in Zimbabwe (ZimPATH and St2eep) were selected in which the project's management invested significantly in team learning. These practices were put against the learning support activities that the head office was catering for. The study follows a qualitative case-study design inspired by phronetic-based research (Flyvbjerg, 2001), and utilises a mixed method approach to data collection involving a variety of research instruments. The author of the thesis worked in different positions in the field and in the head office (1997-2007). An improved version of the concept of learning patterns (Sterck, 2004) is introduced to gain insights in the tenacity of learning practices. It is derived from an in-depth analysis of the underlying characteristics of the formal and informal learning activities. Important drivers of the observed learning patterns are argued to be axiological in nature. These result in strongly diverging views about why learning should happen, what should be learned, and how learning should be organised. These views are captured and analysed through a newly constructed concept, the learning support framework. The findings for project level learning are multiple and point at the importance of both intra-organisational and external factors. The working environment of the two case study projects was characterised by internal (micro-political) and external (institutional and socio-economic) sources of pressure that seriously complicated learning processes. However, evidence is provided that both project teams managed to develop powerful learning processes. The ‘situated' learning patterns of ZimPATH and St2eep shared a view of learning as a strategy to deal with the complexity of work. Knowledge was regarded as a process, with a focus on knowledge creation and the use of local knowledge. Both projects integrated learning in their daily practice via the extensive use of social learning practices and by creating conducive conditions for implicit learning. The bulk of these practices was going under the radar in the head office. It treated implicit learning rather passively and it hardly addressed the structural factors hindering such learning. As a consequence, teams without skills and insights into workplace learning were largely left on their own. The analysis of agency-wide learning in VVOB confirms research that indicates that ‘tacit knowledge does not travel easily' (Gertler, 2003, p.84). The strong bias towards vertical learning processes, ICT-solutions and the codification of knowledge created a bureaucratic learning pattern. It did not stop VVOB from entering into a profound crisis. A severe institutional emergency, triggered by external pressure of back donors and institutional partners in the years 2005 and 2006, together with changes in the management brought the momentum for change. The resulting improvements in learning at the field level were, however, not replicated for agency-wide learning. This is linked in the thesis with a lack of ‘institutional proximity' (Gertler, 2003). Initiatives introducing changes in existing learning practices are deemed to face fierce resistance unless they take into account crucial internal factors (such as the configuration of views, interests and history with regard to knowledge and learning), and various external causes of pressure. An alternative 3 step approach is proposed. In conclusion, unless development agencies and back-donors become more responsive towards the challenges of sharing tacit knowledge across organisational, institutional, cultural and power divides, projects like ZimPATH and St2eep are likely to remain pockets of innovation.

This research sets out to explore the interface between the new politics of localisation and the political process in India. Governments and donors have increasingly emphasised the locality as the primary unit of development and politics. This new trajectory has been manifest in the increase of community-based organisations and mechanisms of participatory governance at the local level. From the late 1990s, the south Indian state of Andhra Pradesh emerged as one of the most important examples of this new developmental politics and this research sets out to explore how local dynamics changed as a result. Political economy approaches tend to focus on state-periphery relations in terms of interest groups or vote banks. By contrast, this research found the village to be an enduring unit in the political system through which political identity manifests itself through three features. First, participation in local elections is driven by common forces of politics of parties, caste and corruption but its outcome is dependent on the specific context at the village level. Second, new participatory institutions created through state policy were found to merge with informal practices at the local level and produce a complex interplay between the new local and state identities. Third, analysis of leadership found evidence of a well-defined system of organisation within party groups at the village level, which were shaped not by party institutions but by the inner workings of village politics. These findings give cause to reassess the way in which we understand policy and political change. I do so by expanding on Skocpol's polity approach, which focused attention on the dynamic interplay of policy and social structure. Drawing on elements of the 'political development' theory, the concept of a ‘developing polity' approach is elaborated on, to better explain the complex interplay between local and higher level politics. These findings have implications for understanding both political change in India and development strategy. The macro-perspective on the decay of political institutions is contrasted with a local perspective that finds evidence of the vitality of party politics at the village level. This has a number of important implications for development, both in terms of the way in which we analyse participation and the way in which participatory development can be translated into political change

This thesis is composed of three empirical essays that analyse different development and labour economics issues about Mexico and its emigrant population residing in the United States. The first essay examines the role of occupational segregation in explaining the low wages among first, second and third generation Mexican immigrants in the United States. Mexican-Americans earn lower wages than blacks mainly because they possess less human capital. With respect to whites, their lower wages are also a product of their smaller rewards for skills and underrepresentation at the top of the occupational structure. Occupational segregation constitutes an important part of the wage gap between natives and Mexican-born immigrants. For subsequent generations, the contribution of occupational segregation to the wage gap varies significantly between groups and according to the decomposition used. The second essay examines whether Seguro Popular, a free-of-charge publicly provided health insurance program for otherwise uninsured households, crowded-out private transfers in Mexico. Using data from the National Household Income and Expenditure Survey, the effects of Seguro Popular are identified using the spatial variation in the program's coverage induced by its sequential roll-out throughout Mexico. The results show that Seguro Popular reduced on average a household's probability of receiving private transfers by 5.55 percentage points. This finding appears to be driven by domestic private transfers, since the program's effects are only statistically significant for private transfers originating within Mexico. In addition, Seguro Popular had a weak and not statistically significant negative effect on the amount of private transfers received. Failure to take into account possible changes in private behaviour induced by Seguro Popular may overstate the program's potential benefits or distributional impacts. Finally, the third essay studies the effect of students' exposure to violent crimes on educational outcomes. Driven by drug-trade related crimes, homicide levels in Mexico have dramatically increased since 2007. Using school level data, a panel of Mexico's primary and secondary schools from 2006 to 2012 is constructed to analyse the effect of exposure to homicides on standardised test scores and grade failure rates. The results show that a one-unit increase in the number of homicides per 10,000 inhabitants reduces average test scores between 0.0035 and 0.0142 standard deviations. This effect is larger in secondary schools, stronger if the homicide occurs closer to the examination date, and is stable when using either total homicides or drug-trade related homicides to measure crime. Higher homicides rates are also associated with an increase in the grade failure rate. Early exposure to homicides has potential long-term consequences since it may affect educational attainment levels and future income streams.

Orientador: Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-17T12:09:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Mazzi_CaioTorres_M.pdf: 2544919 bytes, checksum: 35405220fb3c10b12a04d8fcbe0628ba (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: Este trabalho busca integrar dois importantes ramos da literatura pós-keynesiana: a chamada abordagem stock-flow consistent (SFC), cujas origens estão em trabalhos como Godley e Cripps (1983) e Godley (1997), entre outros; e a teoria do crescimento restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos (BPC), inaugurada no modelo seminal de Thirlwall (1979). Após uma breve revisão bibliográfica de ambas as literaturas, são construídas um modelo stock-flow consistent com crescimento e restrição externa. Utiliza-se o modelo para simular diferentes tipos de fluxos internacionais de capitais, que demonstram ter efeitos bastante distintos sobre a economia local / Abstract: The aim of this dissertation is the integration of two important branches of the Post Keynesian literature: the so called stock-flow consistent (SFC) approach, with origins that can be found in Godley and Cripps (1983) and Godley (1997), among others; and the theory of balance of payments constrained growth (BPC), initiated in the seminal model of Thirlwall (1979). After a brief review of both literatures, a stock-flow consistent model with growth and a balance of payments constraint is developed. The model is used to simulate international capital flows of various kinds, which demonstrate to have very different effects on the local economy / Mestrado / Ciências Economicas / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo testar a hipótese levantada por Reinhart e Rogoff acerca da relação entre dívida pública e crescimento econômico. Para isso utilizamos um modelo empírico baseado no modelo teórico de crescimento neoclássico acrescido de algumas variáveis econômicas comprovadamente relevantes, utilizando dados em painel numa amostra com 86 países no período de 1983 até 2013. Encontramos evidências que confirmam em parte a hipótese levantada por Reinhart e Rogoff, isto é, a dívida pública apresentou uma relação negativa com o crescimento econômico, no entanto não fomos capazes de encontrar um threshold onde a magnitude de tal efeito fosse aumentada.

Orientador: Carlos Alberto Cinquetti / Banca: Aquiles Elie Guimarães Kalatzis / Banca: André Luis Corrêa / Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho é discutir algumas reformas institucionais e políticas econômicas voltadas ao crescimento. Para tanto, valemo-nos de simulações econômicas, um tipo de abordagem alternativa que usa técnicas matemáticas e deduções para resolver um modelo objetivo. A simulação econômica desta dissertação reflete que o grau de abertura comercial é um fator relevante de peso para possíveis alterações estruturais nas economias. Nota-se que, nos países com baixo grau de abertura, o custo do capital é o principal entrave para o crescimento econômico. E, naquelas economias com alto grau de abertura, a maior dinâmica compensaria os problemas causados pelo custo do capital. Quando comparados os dois tipos de reformas (contínua versus pontual), a reforma "contínua" trará uma qualidade de ganho mais expressivo do produto relativo do que a reforma "pontual". Outra conclusão é que, as economias com maior grau de abertura devem ter uma maior preocupação com respeito à qualidade das suas instituições, devido à maior potencialidade causada pela maior abertura comercial / Abstract: The objective of this work is to discuss some institutional reforms and economic politics related to the growth. Therefore, it is based on economic simulations, a type of alternative approach that uses mathematical techniques and deductions to solve an objective model. The economic simulation of this dissertation reflects that the trade opening level is an important factor of weight for possible structural alterations in the economies. It is noticeable that, in the countries with low opening level, the cost of the capital is the main setback for the economic growth. And, in those economies with high opening level, the largest dynamics would compensate the problems caused by the cost of the capital. When compared the two types of reforms (continuous versus punctual), the "continuous" reform will bring a more expressive gain quality of the relative product than the "punctual" reform. Other conclusion is that, the larger opening level economies should have a larger concern regarded to the quality of its institutions, due to the largest potentiality caused by the largest trade opening / Mestre